Rick Reilly does his Mea Culpa...finally...sheesh

by OrangeKnuckleDragger on Oct 16, 2009 1:46 PM MDT

Happy Friday. It's a good day. A day to eat Crow, methinks...and Rick Reilly just dove into his steaming entree.

More below the fold...

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/reillygofish

In response to a completely different question, Rick gets started this way:

"Hey Rick, Looks like the Titans will be 0-7 since disrespecting the Terrible Towel. Never under estimate the power of the towel. --Mike (Pittsburgh)

That's nothing. The Denver Broncos are 5-0 since I disrespected them. They're 5-0 since I said Josh McDaniels made one of the worst trades in NFL history. They're 5-0 since I called McDaniels 'Boy Blunder."

Yep. You called him 'Boy Blunder,' Rick.

Classy.

Here's your fork. Would you like some gravy? Some fresh ground pepper?

No?

Okay. Dive in then, my friend.

"I was wrong. The kid can coach. He's been nothing short of a 5-8 coaching Godzilla. The Broncos have won three of their five by coming from behind in the second half. That's just pure coaching.

As penance, I will wear those horrible striped socks the rest of the season."

I knew that I wasn't the only one who loved those socks. Little know fact: Dr. Suess consulted on the design of the Bronco's original uniforms. Check the Google, if you don't believe me. ;-)

On an unrelated topic, the ESPN game matchup computer simulation has the Chargers winning on Monday night, 63% of the time. This is one of those deals where they run 10,000 iterations of a simulated game, and see which side wins more often.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/intel?gameId=291019024

Now, I'm stats fan, so I'm sort of wondering what they have been feeding into their computers to get those kind of results.

Mulch?

Cheers!

-OKD

Poll

Rick Reilly is a ...

Brilliant sports columnist who made one bad call. He deserves our support, forgiveness and pity.

13 votes

Hack and pulls his columns out of his @ss...which is why they're all wet, and have to dry out overnight before he can fax them over to his bosses at ESPN.

24 votes

Who?

36 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Gotta Say...

I’m glad Reilly’s maned up on this one. That said, he sure does have a way with words sometimes. I mean, “[the Broncos] are going to lose more than France” was one of the funniest things I’ve heard in a long time. And calling McDaniels “a 5’8” coaching godzilla" is a solid way of expressing that point.

"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999

by ejruiz on Oct 16, 2009 1:57 PM MDT reply actions

Yeah, the 5'8" coaching godzilla...

was my favorite.

I wish I’d come up with it. I’m jealous.

by OrangeKnuckleDragger on Oct 16, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions

simulation

My guess is that they feed those simulations with meaningless statistics, such as past win-loss records from previous years and special situation (“Monday night”) stats. Not to mention the ESPN expert picks. Blech.

by Linmoo on Oct 16, 2009 2:04 PM MDT reply actions

Yeah, this would be one of those times that...

using results from last year would screw things up royally.

I bet they include things like W/L records after bye weeks, home field advantage, etc…

I’d think that with 5 games of data from this season, that they’d rely on that information more heavily.

by OrangeKnuckleDragger on Oct 16, 2009 2:09 PM MDT up reply actions

opinions--

they grow on trees and i’m okay with that. why do opinion columnists have to be right on everything or else they’re idiots? i don’t get the angst about it all. if you agree with columnists’ (clayton, reilly, simmons, lombardi, williamson, etc.) opinions, fine. if you don’t… well, also fine. they’re just giving their take on things and that’s what they’re paid to do. no harm no foul.

by oxmouth on Oct 16, 2009 3:02 PM MDT reply actions

Agreed OM, but

I’m kinda glad to see this because over the years, I’ve liked Reilly’s writing. I was particularly disturbed by his earlier take as it seemed to have an edge and vitriol that Reilly isn’t really known for – seemed out of character.
Go Broncs!

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Oct 16, 2009 3:32 PM MDT reply actions

I know it's bad form to comment your own comment

but if you go to the link, scroll down and check out his article on John Wooden – this is why I like Reilly

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Oct 16, 2009 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions

He also did a GREAT article recently on Elway

helping out a kid from Montana.

by topnation on Oct 16, 2009 4:50 PM MDT up reply actions

5'9

"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"

by littletinybroncos on Oct 16, 2009 4:14 PM MDT reply actions

5'8" Coaching Godzilla!

That is awesome! Let’s use it as a knickname. It’s a little long, but he really does have the jaw and the chiclets to be one!

"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"

by littletinybroncos on Oct 16, 2009 4:15 PM MDT reply actions

I agree.

Rick has always been able to write with great color. It’s why I was waiting for this Mea Culpa. So I could enjoy his writing again.

Cheers!

-OKD

by OrangeKnuckleDragger on Oct 16, 2009 4:44 PM MDT up reply actions

For the simulation they are using a Monte Carlo Simulation

..but with any model, it´s simply a reflection of the variables that you put into them

I should run some some of our own MHR Monte Carlos with better variables.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Oct 16, 2009 5:08 PM MDT reply actions

We used a Monte Carlo simulation for many, many things

in the Semiconductor business, but with all simulations, the results are dependent upon the assumptions and weighting used in the model.

I’m guessing that they are relying upon several statistics that we don’t usually take into account, like W/L record after a bye week, as well as a teams historical home field advantage.

I’d really be interested in what factors they use, and how they weight them.

P.S. I just got here, but I’m already addicted to your posts…

by OrangeKnuckleDragger on Oct 16, 2009 5:27 PM MDT up reply actions

My problem with the simulation results.

This is the kind of thing they say (not actual quotes, but you’ll see my point)…

“SD wins if the can run over 150 yard this game, and they win 75% of that time”

There are many problems with that kind of analysis. First, NO KIDDING! It is like saying that the team that scores more points is going to win more of the time.

Second, nothing in the SD run offense (ranked 32nd) or the Denver run defense (one of the best in the NFL) leads me to think that SD will get much yardage on the ground at all.

Go read the actual analysis, and you can find plenty of examples of that kind of reasoning. Eeeek!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 16, 2009 6:24 PM MDT reply actions

Also......

I’m not that good with stats in the first place, and theirs seem especially cryptic, but I don’t think they even have a .500 record with their picks. If you look at their historical picks, (I believe) they have 8 games in a row that they picked SD to win, and they didn’t actually win more than 3. These simulations shouldn’t be given any more credence than the preseason pundits, as I don’t think the MSM is capable of picking against SD, even when they have no running game, and a mediocre-at-best defense that is further plagued by injuries. Just look at the fact that, contradictory to stats, history, film, and common sense, they pick LT to be the most productive RB on Mon with 60 yards. Whatever planet these people are making their picks from, football doesn’t make any sense there. (beyond SD should always win RARA!!)

by RaRaDonk89 on Oct 18, 2009 12:13 AM MDT up reply actions