Brad's NFL Picks - Week Six - 2009

by bradley on Oct 16, 2009 3:06 PM MDT Comment 18 comments

Brad's Picks was 11-3 last week. Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from that:

the good:

Denver 20, Patriots 17 (OT) - Kyle Orton led the Broncos on a 98 yard TD drive in the 4th to tie the game and send it to OT.

Steelers 28, Detroit 20 - Ben R threw 4 TD passes last week, but one was to a Lion.

New York Giants 44, Raiders 7 - Gloom and doom in Oakland.

Cowboys 26, Kansas City 20 (OT) - Cowboys weren't expecting two tough games in a row at the AFC West, and were lucky to escape with one win.

Vikings 38, St. Louis 10 - Vikes didn't suffer a let down after their big win over the Packers on MNF but took care of business in the dark dome.

Carolina 20, Redskins 17 - Redskins let a 17-2 lead slip away.

Philadelphia 33, Bucs 14 - Donovan McNabb was sharp after missing two games with a rib injury.

Seattle 41, Jags 0 - Matt Hasselbeck was sharp after missing two games with a rib injury.

Arizona 28, Texans 21 - This was really two games - Cardinals won the first half 21-0, Texans won the second half 21-7.

Colts 31, Tennessee 9 - Titans have already lost two more games than in all of 2008 (regular season).

Miami 31, Jets 27 - Jets successfully faked two punts, but the Dolphins came from behind 3 times in the 4th quarter.

the bad:

Browns 6, Buffalo 3 - Derek Anderson completed just two passes the whole game, so how did the Browns win this game?

Bengals 17, Baltimore 14 - Carson Palmer tossed a 20 yard TD pass to win the game with just seconds on the clock.

the ugly:

Falcons 45, San Francisco 10 - Niners were booed off the field at half time. Gonna be a long two weeks (they have a bye) with Mike Singletary on them the whole time.

Brad's Picks is 58-18 on the season. Home teams were 7-7 last week, and on the season it's homers 44, visitors 32. NFC 4, AFC 1 last week. On the season, it's NFC 12, AFC 7. George flotched it last week, taking the Patriots for the 3rd straight week. George is 2-1 on the season.

this week: off this week are Miami, Undy, Dallas and San Francisco.

the 11:00 MDT games:

Detroit (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2) - Division game. Gotta take the Packers at Lambeau, even though the Lions are playing better than last year (Lions are 22nd in the league on D, 21st on O). (Green Bay is 18th and 14th respectively.)

New York Giants (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-0) - Giants are 2nd in the league in O, Saints 3rd. Giants are 1st in D, Saints 6th. Saints were pretty bad on D last year, but bringing in Gregg Williams to be the D coordinator has changed that. I'm taking the Saints at home after a bye, even though the Giants had a laugher at home against the Raiders.

Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2) - Division game. Steelers are 11-0 against the Browns lately. Ben R is 9-0. Browns' QB Derek Anderson managed to complete just two passes last week at Buffalo.

Houston (2-3) at Cincinnati (4-1) - Bengals are 7-1 in their last 8 games, the lone loss coming at Mile High, by one point. Cedric Benson leads the league in rushing, and Carson Palmer is getting it back after an injury last year. Texans got hot in Arizona in the second half last week, but it takes 4 quarters to win in the NFL. Take Cincinnati.

Kansas City (0-5) at Washington (2-3) - Washington had a 17-2 lead against Carolina last week, but lost anyway. These two teams are pretty bad, but I'll take the 2-3 Reds versus the 0-5 Chiefs in Washington, despite the fact that the Chiefs took the Cowboys to OT at Arrowhead last week.

Carolina (1-3) at Tampa Bay (0-5) - Division game. Carolina showed some grit by coming back from a 17-2 deficit (in the third quarter) against the Redskins last week. Bucs haven't shown any grit at all.

St. Louis (0-5) at Jacksonville (2-3) - Jags have been up and down this year, Rams have just been down.

Baltimore (3-2) at Minnesota (5-0) - Brett Fave is 5-0 for the first time in his career. And he has the 4th best QB rating in the league. Maybe he should have been playing in Purple his whole career. Ravens gave up 142 on the ground to the Bengals last week and here comes Adrian Peterson. Take the Vikings in their home dome.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Philadelphia (3-1) at Oakland (1-4) - You could say that Oakland is the worst team in the NFL but they really aren't that good. Sorry, Raiders fans, but you know it's true. Eagles.

Arizona (2-2) at Seattle (2-3) - Division game. Kurt Warner was 20-23-0-262 in the first half last week against the Texans, but just 6-15-40 in the second half. And that was in the desert. This game will be in Seattle, where the temp will be in the 40's and it will be rainy. Matt Hasselbeck was 18-30-241 with no INT's and 4 TD tosses in his first game after missing two with a rib injury. Take the Seahawks. They want their division crown back.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Buffalo (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2) - Division game. Mark Sanchez has been OK in his rookie start, but he's thrown just as many INT's as TD's (5) but he's been on the road for two weeks. It might be rainy in the Big Apple but I look for the Jets to win this one. Bills aren't very good.

Tennessee (0-5) at New England (3-2) - Patriots lost in OT at Mile High last week. They'll take it out on the hapless Titans.

the SNF game:

Chicago (3-1) at Atlanta (3-1) - Chicago is off a bye. Atlanta was off a bye last week and went to San Francisco and killed the Niners, 45-10. These two teams met in Atlanta last year in Week Six. I'm sure you all remember how Kyle Orton tossed a game winning TD to make the score Bears 20, Atlanta 19, with just seconds left in the game. But the Bears squib kicked, and Matt Ryan made a great sideline throw, and Jason Elam kicked a 48 yard FG to win the game for the Falcons. I expect that this game will also be close, but when in doubt, take the home team. Atlanta.

the MNF game:

Denver (5-0) at San Diego (2-2) - Division game. Chargers are 32nd in run O, and have the 26th worst defense. Broncos are 5th in run O and 2nd in total D ( total yards, that is - Denver is first in points allowed). Chargers have some injuries, and I see the Broncos in a bit of a romp. But hang on - both teams have been good in the second half.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Hmmm...comes down to the Giants and Ravens for me...

Good Luck!

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Oct 16, 2009 3:41 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The numbers favor the Giants

but emotion favors New Orleans — like Denver, they’re fighting for respect.

The formula I used had New York winning it by 2, but I’d prefer to see the Saints take it.

Likewise, I predicted the Vikings over the Ravens, but I’d prefer to see it go the other way.

I think we’ll be in for a really ugly game if we have to take on Baltimore in Baltimore, after a bye week and coming off a 3 game losing streak. (But then again, maybe Baltimore’s offense is simply overrated . . . kinda like another team’s in 2008 ;-p )

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 16, 2009 3:51 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Do you realize...

That if the Saints win and the Ravens win, that the Broncos will be the ONLY 6-0 team?

Just realized that.

Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.

by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Oct 16, 2009 3:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

that's cool

let’s pull for that result.

by BShrout on Oct 16, 2009 3:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did Indy lose a game in the bye week?

by RaRaDonk89 on Oct 19, 2009 2:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

He means Indy will just be 5-0, not 6-0. So, if the Broncos win tonight, there will be two 6-0 teams on Tuesday (Minnesota and Denver). And two 5-0 teams – Colts and Saints

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Oct 19, 2009 5:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Take Both the Saints and Ravens

Saints and G-Men is the game of the week, but New Orleans wins because Drew Brees is too good and the dome will be hard for the Giants’ offense. Joe Flacco is better than Brett Favre and when #4 makes stupid passes against the Ravens, Ed Reed will make him pay. I also like the Seahawks against the Cards and Detroit will give the Packers all they want.

Brad James

by the Bradfather on Oct 16, 2009 4:15 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Brad, are you using stats to pick these or just going with your instincts. Your record is impressive.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Oct 16, 2009 5:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Both

Plus my working familiarity with the ups and downs of the NFL. Very interesting to factor in the fall of the Titans for example. But I also gotta say that this year has seen a lot of easy picks, so a lot of pickers are doing as well or better than I. Our own Guru, for example, is doing extremely well.

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Oct 16, 2009 5:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool, again, impressive

I am toying with a formula based on the 4 stats that I track from each game. In week 4 I was 14-0 with the method and thought I had discovered cold fusion. In week five I was 8-6 and was ready to jump off the roof. So I am adjusting the formula until it´s at least 75% each week. If it never happens, then I guess the method should go to the can!

Good job, again, Brad. I will follow you all season.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Oct 16, 2009 5:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

"...and thought I had discovered cold fusion."

LOL. Whatever happened to the cold fusion thing?

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Oct 16, 2009 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it was lost in the Black Hole. They need a cheap and abundant energy source to keep Al Davis in charge

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Oct 16, 2009 8:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Bradely,

I just realized something, whatever happened to George’s picks. I always kinda like that aspect of your picks as I could compare myself to pure blind luck. I also thought it was pretty funny once I realized who George was. ;)

Yea, nice record so far. I’m at 55-21 after making some silly moves last week. I’ve got KC, Baltimore, and Chicago different from you this week… though I’m tempted to switch one of them. Good luck!

by tunga77 on Oct 17, 2009 1:18 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Mike Clark asked about George in the Week Three comments. Here's my response:

George… ….is retired, or at least semi retired. He’s spent the off season slumbering here by the computer, in his envelope that is covered with notes and sites and such. I came close to asking him his opinion on the New England/Falcons game (it was my last and hardest call) but didn’t. However, just for you, Mike, I just queried the silver one – he agrees that the Patriots will win.

George also picked the New England/Ravens game the next week, and correctly picked the Pats. But he flotched last week when he picked the Pats for the 3rd straight game.
I’ve been doing Brad’s Picks since 2000, and have gotten about 64% correct, all in all. But I often wondered how I’d do against a coin flip, so George assisted in that endeavor last year. Going into the Super Bowl, George was 125-138-1, and I was 168-97-1. We both took Arizona.
George may make cameo appearances this year, but he’s a COG and likes his slumber.

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Oct 17, 2009 2:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs