Areas of Concern

I think average starting field position is a huge area of concern. We cannot continue to rely on the offense to consistently put together 90 plus yard drives (we got away with it last week) and expect the team to continue to win. The return game is the problem here IMO. We really don’t do kickoff or punt returns well at all. I do not believe the returners are making good decisons on when to let the ball go and when to make a fair catch. I would love to see Jack Williams returning punts instead of Royal. Nothing against Royal but I would rather that he just play WR.

I voted 1st-quarter performance. There is only so long that the Broncos can play with their back to the wall before it catches up to them. As impressive and poised as they play with the scoreboard against them, I would expect them to be even more dominant if they could further dictate the game by being up early in the game. But just because that would have the largest impact on creating more wins doesn’t mean the other areas that you highlight wouldn’t also help in stacking up the Ws.

Again, excellent post. I look forward to the discussion it creates, and I hope we’ll see more observations from you in the future. Very easy rec!

I know that several of us (myself included) liked the yards per point argument last year and this offseason in relation to the 2008 Broncos and HWMNBN. I’m thinking, though, that while the point still holds regarding the aforementioned, this particular argument is the improper one to make it — it oversimplifies the issue.

Think about this: if you drive 50-60 yards to get a touchdown, you take anywhere from 3 to 6 minutes off the clock. If you drive 80+ yards to do so, you can take anywhere from 8 to 12 (happened last week with the Seachickens). So, a higher yards/point index can mean the following as well: 1) better time of possession; 2) more rest for the defense. Neither of those are bad things; in fact, it is arguable that precisely these have been a direct cause for our success as a team.

I’m not going to speculate on the best argument to debunk the “2nd-ranked offense” myth. I am just starting to suspect that we should give the yards/points ratio a rest.

The first one is always the hardest.

rec’d.

Your item #3 is the area that I have been looking at the most with concern. We’re just working too dang hard for our points.

I’m glad I’m not the only one who just started posting…

;-)

Cheers!

-OKD

Excellent first post. Here are my 2cent responses to your areas of concern:

1. Scoring by the defense. This area is the least likely to improve. Offenses consistently improve as the season progresses making defenses less effective. Defensive scoring is also more of a luck factor rather than a planning factor in that what happens after an INT is more related to where the offensive players are located. You cannot plan for that. It just happens.

2. Short yardage running game. This has been an issue going back to our first preseason game not just starting with our first regular season game. At first I believed it was changing the OLine blocking scheme from a zone block to a man/power block scheme. I still think that may be part of the problem. I have also been critical of our strongside blocking. It has looked like we just don’t get anough push off the line. I believe that improved technique and strength conditioning may help. Maybe it is a FB issue? Getting Hillis over his concussion and Larsen over his shower injury may help. We tried putting Reid in and that did not help. Maybe we need more TE involvement? Perhaps McD should be more willing to pass instead of run. Maybe run a QB sneak (though I don’t like putting our QB in that position). It often feels like McD is daring the other team to stop us rather than devising a way to get the short yardage. Regardless of rationalizing, it needs to be fixed.

3. Scoring efficiency. I think this is related to the ST problems not giving the offense a shorter field as well as the short yardage plays issue.

4. First quarter performance (26-17). It would be great if no team ever scored on us and we scored on them at will. This stat does not overly concern me because the second half is almost always where games are won or lost. Like you say, these stats are statistical noise.

5. Kick and punt return units. Let’s just throw the whole special teams unit in and say they are not doing very well. McD chewed out ST coach Priefer for good reason! They are doing better than last year, but it is still not good enough. We can pick out Paxton, Prater & Kern and add Woodyard as doing well. But the supporting cast of characters need to do better.

Hey! We are 5-0 and going to be 6-0! This is a very very good football team with terrific coaching and talent.

I think we are putting to much pressure on the offense in the first half……..pressure in the sense that we overcoach a bit (lots of details and game plan stuff) that stops us from playing. Its part of the quirk of having the “most prepared” coach in the game. I really think it starts with McD. I think we’ll get this right down the stretch, he just needs to loosen up a bit.

Ever consider how phenomenal we played in the last preseason game ag. Arizona. One factor leaps off that game. It didn’t matter….Orton wasn’t playing, very little additional wrinckles were added, the pressure had to be off for Tom B. and the D was just told to go out and go nuts on ’em…..lets just see who wants to make the team.

Result…..every player played lights out. Then go to each game this year. We are kinda tight and after little mistakes (where McD goes nuts) we make a couple more mistakes…..Off penalties, ST penalties, Orton miscues ST play in general…..I think McD firing up the team is great and he is a plus across the board. I think the difference between a SB this year or later all comes down to his feel/experience in pushing buttons on the team. Lighten up on Pfeifer, Orton, and penalties (at least in the game) down the stretch and sometimes (ala what V. Holliday said Nolan did at halftime) just keep the gameplan simple and let ‘em play. We ARE good enough to womp good teams on our talent…….we don’t always have to TOTALLY outcoach ’em

I look at points scored off of turnovers more than I look at how many points the Defense scores. That really doesn’t matter, what matters is how many points the Broncos score off of turnovers and I don’t have the exact number, but I think we’ve scored quite a few points off turnovers this year. That stat is more important to me than if the D returns a ball for a TD.

My biggest worry is scoring offense….we need to punch the ball in more and a lot of that has to do with converting short yardage(which we suck at so far this year). Hopefully this team will continue to grow and get better as the season goes on.

1. DJ’s fumble recovery was aginst the Cowboys not the Pats. Opportunities will come as this defense get’s better each week in it’s new system and scheme. DE/OLB Robert Ayers is improving every week even though his stats don’t show it yet. He is a learning in progress and should by the closing half of this season be a driving force on this defense. Players are communicating on a level that they haven’t for a long time. We have leaders on the field and in the lockerroom that inject the neccessary enthusiasm that keeps a team motivated to win. The 13-3 crowd if you wish was a very small one with myself, Mike Clark, BShrout, KaptKirk and a handfull of others and we were for the most part ridiculed by the so-called elitest fan base on here, so rather than argue the point we for the most part decided to let the cards fall where they may so to speak. I for one am on the bandwagon of 13-3 and see it as a very good possibility if this team continues to gell with one another. Defensive scoring will come and in the first 5 games of this season we have already surpassed a vast amount of what the defense of last year accomplished.

1. 3rd or 4th and short is a very big concern as Josh McDaniels reinterated and they are working hard to try to fix it. The OLine has to do a better job in their holding and pushing the line, there is no doubt. Though they have been outstanding in pass protection, there is another side of that equation that has to be addressed and fast. Points are critical and the difference between 7 pts and 3 may have a big factor in the end of games. No doubt these areas will be put under the microscope this Monday.

1. The gloves off and now we start the season off on a better note, one player on injured list, thank goodness for condition even if it’s in pajamas. Cutser can have all the stats and Pro Bowls he wants, the bottom line is scoring points and out scoring your opponent, we’ll see how these next few games puts points on the board. One thing for sure players have to hold on to the ball better, the first drive of the game last week was a great example of what not to do. I know, I know, Knowshon’s a rookie and will make rookie mistakes but we cannot put the burden upon our defense week after week and expect this team to survive. One thing coach might do is ‘duct tape’ the ball to his hands all week and maybe he will lock it up instead of trying to reach out to defend the defender. Get the yardage you can get and the rest will come.

1. Kinda ties in with #3 and killing drives with turnovers has got to stop and stop now, since this gauntlet grows with intensity more and more each week, these mistakes need to end now. We all know the glove had to be a little factor in the first 4 games and now it is off and Kyles passes were more tightly spun with more zip and accuracy. I look for this offense to take off this week, it may not be on the first drive or the second, but I look for better thing than what we have witnessed. Time of posession is very important and we haven’t been winning that battle in the first half, that has to improve.

Thanks hudayberti for bringing this up for discussion. 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain’t.

1. Special Teams have issues for sure and caused our defense some discomfort that they had to overcome. The first real a$$ chewing by coach McDaniels was pointed directly at ST’s coach Mike Preifer and Keith Burns. I am sure the message got across and watch for this unit have improvement this week. Again, this team can’t keep digging themselves out of a hole, field position is so very critical and possibly the game difference maker more times than it isn’t.

if you have 3rd and inches, QB sneak and get the first down. I kept yelling at the TV the ;asst few weeks when they got in those situations. Thank Heaven for the defense. Never thought I would say that after the last few years.

I voted for first quarter scoring problem. As you stated, despite spectacular second half adjustments so far, we can’t continue to play with fire. I’m not saying we need to have 14-pt leads heading into halftime, but continued 10-pt deficits to start the second half will eventually bite us. I’d be perfectly content with the Broncos going into half tied or even down by 3. McD and the team have proved they have the resilience to compete a full 60 minutes (or more), so I like our team’s chance against ANYONE if we come out of half tied.

Point One: Defensive touchdowns are an enigma. I’m not sure you can coach for those or ever really expect them. But history should tell us that fielding an aggressive defense will likely end up producing defensive points at some time. If you build it, it will come.

Point Two: I share your concerns. Completely. I would like to consider our O’ Line elite, as many here have done. Well, and I’ve probably said the same. But they (our O’ LIne) don’t really seem to be getting much of a push in those short-yardage situations so far this year. And although I think the play calling has begun to adapt to that admission, I think you are absolutely correct: Elite teams can for first downs. That area certainly needs improvement.

Point Three: I chalk that up to the learning curve. Offenses take more time to tansition. We’ve seens many signs of improvement. I would like to see those stats for the last two or three games and would assume that the team will continue its improvement on scoring.

Point Four: Great point about the Raiders =) Great pickup on each of those stats. Again, I share these concerns. I’m not sure how to fix this area, but it is an area that needs to be fixed. This is my biggest concern, in fact. Some might argue that lack of first-half production is due to asmall sample size or mere transitioning. Personally, I don’t think this is one of those, “If you build it, it will come” type of situations. I can’t call it. Can’t put a thumb on it. But I do believe it is a tangible and correctable problem, not just a coincident.

Point Five: I take bathroom breaks/beer trips during kickoffs to our team. I guess I never really expect to miss much. We don’t have a breakaway threat in the return game and I even think it’s a bad move to keep Eddie Royal back there. All risk, no reward. IMHO, I’m not sure this can be fixed this year. I’m ‘content’ with our coverage units, but not at all content with our lack of returns. Perhaps I’m being a little negative, but I just don’t think this is an area where we can realistically expect to improve much in ’09.

As to your last points, I’m one of those ignorant, or perhaps arrogant, people who believe field position ian over-bloated statastic. I know I’m in the giant minority there. But I believe an offense that can drive 70 yards to score can also drive 80 yards to score. It’s all about consistency in my minority opinion. To be clear, I’m not saying this isn’t important… just less important than other areas. Converting 3rd and shorts is far more important in my humble opinion.

Great first post. Sound logic and your research of stats used really shows. I will remember your name and look forward to more. Rec’d for sure.

I’m going to take your concerns out of order, from easiest to explain/solve to most difficult:

1) Scoring by the defense. One score would be statistically normal for 11 turnovers, and we’re an ankle grab away from that. As you admit the sample size is small, too small to be meaningful in fact. Since you can’t get farther away than one less than expected, it’s impossible for this result to be statistically significant on the negative side. As Endzone points out it depends on where the offensive players are when the turnover happens. It also depends on where it happens. If it happens at our end and prevents a score it’s almost as valuable as a defensive score. This isn’t really a legitimate concern at this point and probably never will be.

4) First quarter performance. In evaluating teams’ relative strengths we have to take into account the kinds of advantages that together comprise a team’s strength. Ours happen to be the kinds that show up more late than early. If we’re five percent better overall than another top team, and fifteen percent better in the second half, then ipso facto they’re ten percent better in the first half and would be ten percent better overall if we didn’t have those particular advantages. The factors I can think of that would show up more strongly in the second half are halftime adjustments (of course), conditioning (including the advantage of living and training at high altitude), and playing well under pressure. Without those advantages we wouldn’t be quite as good as some of the teams we’ve beaten. Since we’re much better than the Browns and Raiders we outscored them in the first and second half. The fact that we’ve outscored our opponents slightly (23-17) in the second quarter suggests conditioning is part of the picture. Playing well under pressure, by Dawkins and the defense and Orton and the offense, also comes to the fore as the game moves into its latter stages and completes the picture of our second-half domination.

At this time these three factors, which are essentially second quarter and especially second half factors, are what make us competitive with the best teams in the league. Without them we’d be a second tier rather than top team. If we were able to stay with other top teams in the first half without these factors, then with them we’d be blowing out the very best teams the league has to offer. We’re good but not that good. The good news is we’ll probably close the gap in first-quarter offensive and defensive efficiency as the players continue to master the defensive and especially the offensive systems they’ve been learning. When that happens, to the extent that it happens, the Broncos will become the dominant team in the league.

5) Kick and punt return units. First, I see decision-making deficiencies. Too many fair catches inside the ten, too many fair catches with room to run, too few knees taken on kickoffs caught four to seven yards deep in the end zone. Those can be worked on, but I think in addition we lack instinctive kick and punt returners who are good at seeing the field, using blocks, and being decisive in picking a seam and heading upfield rather than trying to circle the first wave of tacklers (on punt returns). Royal was our quickest and most decisive punt returner last year, but either he’s not been as effective or is being used less this year. The best returners aren’t necessarily much good at anything but returning, and I haven’t noticed that we’ve got that kind of specialist. I’m not sure how effective the blocking has been, either, but a good kick returner can make the blocking look good. Maybe we miss Spencer, although surely one person can’t make that much of a difference. Hopefully the extra time that apparently is being spent on special teams will pay off.

2) Short yardage running game. It seems to me a lot of our short yardage runs are going just to the left of center, and Hamilton and maybe Wiegmann are either being knocked backwards or are failing to prevent penetration. I don’t know if Hamilton’s (and Wiegmann’s) size and age are catching up with him, or if McDaniels is, uncharacteristically, insisting on doing it until we get it right, not taking what the defense gives us, not punishing the defense for selling out against the inside run, not using a quick pitch or pass to go around or over the defense. But that might be my imagination. I trust that McDaniels is working on it and will find a way to alleviate the problem, but this might be an area in which personnel deficiencies (i.e. size) will have to be schemed around.

3) Scoring efficiency. This is an area I think we’ll improve on considerably between now and the playoffs, and we need to. Sharpe as a Tack implies that a high yards per point ratio suggests long drives, which in turn take time off the clock and rest the defense. A drive can be long in two senses, however, which are related but not identical, and which are not equally desirable: long in terms of distance or long in terms of time consumed. The latter is clearly preferable. As to the former’s contribution to the latter, hudayberdi suspects that "the increased positive impact of long drives [in terms of distance] is more than outweighed by the increased difficulty of achieving them,’ and provides a link to a graph that illustrates the relationship between distance from the first down point and the opponent’s end zone and the scoring outcome. Visual inspection suggests that a first down at a team’s own 20 results in a TD or FG about 25% of the time, and a first down at the 50 results in a score about 50% of the time. That dramatic a difference seems to outweigh whatever benefits two or three extra minutes of rest for the defense might confer, and at any rate our defense has been doing a pretty good job of getting of the field and it’s the other team’s offense, not our defense, that’s been flagging in the fourth quarter.

Sharpe as a Tack and hudayberdi both emphasize that the yards per point ratio is the outcome of a complex interaction between several factors involving offense, defense, and special teams. Starting a drive at the 50 not only improves our chances of scoring, it also means we consume fewer yards if we do so. If not for two egregious special teams errors the 98-yard scoring drive would have started only 49 yards from New England’s goal line, hence we would have gotten the same total number of points, 20, with 50 fewer yards. It wouldn’t have looked as good on Orton’s stat sheet but the result would have been more certain. Although we got away with it that time it’s much harder to go 98 yards for a TD than 50. Field position makes a difference.

Getting first downs on third and one or two affects the yards per point ratio by extending a drive to the point of scoring a TD rather than a field goal, or a field goal rather than nothing at all. The defense forcing a quick three and out and giving the offense a short field can do the same. So can an effective kicking game. It seems the other teams’ gunners are always in on our punt returners before they can start upfield, but when we kick their returner seems to regularly have a running start. Kern, too, contributes to our high yards per point ratio. He tries too hard to get the ball as far down the field as possible and doesn’t get enough hang time. It’s better to kick the ball 43 yards with no return than 55 yards with a 20-yard return (or worse). First downs on short yardage, hang time on punts, decision-making and blocking on kick-offs and punt returns are all factors that have caused us to have a high yards per points ratio. I hope we see improvements in these areas this Monday and in the weeks to come.