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Brad's NFL Picks - Week Four - 2009

 

Brad's Picks was 11-5 this week. The good, bad and ugly from that:

Star-divide

    the good:

Broncos 23, Oakland 3. Broncos had to punt two times.

Detroit 19, Redskins 14. Detroit won a game after 19 straight losses.

Baltimore 34, Browns 3. Keith Olbermann said it well: Tackling was optional for the Browns defense.

Minnesota 27, Forty Niners 24.  Brett Favre threw a 32 yard TD pass with 2 seconds remaining.

New England 26, Falcons 10. Patriots ruined Matt Ryan's return to Boston. Belichick actually used the hood on his hoodie. But consider that the score was 13-10 at halftime.

Giants 26, Tampa Bay 0. Bucs gained 86 net yards the entire game, 56 of those in garbage time. Derrick Ward only got 2 yards on 5 carries against his old team mates.

Philadelphia 34, Chiefs 14. It actually wasn't that close.

Saints 27, Buffalo 7. Saints 10, Bills 7 at halftime. No score in the 3rd.

San Diego 23, Dolphins 13. Chad Pennington left the game in the first half with a dislocated right shoulder. But Phillip Rivers was hot anyway, going 18-33-0-303 with a rushing TD.

Cincinnati 23, Steelers 20. It was Steelers 20, Bengals 9 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Dallas 21, Panthers 7. It was scoreless until just before halftime, when the Panthers got a TD after a long drive.

    the bad:

New York Jets 24, Titans 17. Kerry Collins completed just 41% of his passes, not counting the two he completed to the Jets.

Jaguars 31, Houston 24. Texans had the ball at the Jags 2 yard line with 2 minutes to go in the game and 2nd down and goal, but Chris Brown fumbled and the Jags recovered and ran out the clock.

Bears 25, Seattle 19. Jay Cutler 36 yards to Devin Hester for a TD with two minutes left won the game.

     the ugly:

Packers 36, St. Louis 17. Why on earth did I pick the Rams?

Colts 31, Arizona 10. Peyton Manning threw three TD passes in the last 9 minutes of the 2nd quarter to stake the Colts to a 21-3 half time lead.

Brad's Picks is 33 - 15 on the season. NFC and AFC were 2-2 last week, so on the season it's NFC 6, AFC 4. Home teams 9, visitors 7 last week. Home teams are just 25-23 after three weeks. George is 1-0 after picking New England over the Falcons. Peter King should be so smart.

    this week: the 11:00 MDT games: only 14 games this week, as the bye thing begins. Atlanta, Arizona, Carolina, and Philadelphia are off.

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (2-1) - Division game. Kevin Smith averaged 6.3 yards per carry against the Redskins (101 on 16) but I don't think he'll do as well against the Bears, even though Hunter Hillenmeyer, who is replacing Brian Urlacher, left the Seattle game with a rib injury in 3rd. Rookie Matthew Stafford didn't throw any INT's last week (he was 21-36-0-241 and a TD toss) and the Bears still haven't gotten their run game going. But I'll still take the Bears. Should be a good divisional game though - the Lions are on a roll.

Oakland (1-2) at Houston (1-2) - Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is being compared to Ryan Leaf, but the question is: is that fair to Leaf? Raiders did win in Houston last year 27-16. Houston's defense hasn't been good, but Oakland's offense hasn't been very good either, although the run game has been OK. Raiders' D was OK, and the Houston O has been also. Heck, take the home team, but this will be a strange game.

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Washington (1-2) - Bucs are just pretty bad. Their once proud D is the worst in the league. They've announced that they are benching QB Byron Leftwich and will go with second year QB Josh Johnson, a fifth round pick out of San Diego. Rookie Josh Freeman (first round pick out of K State) will be his backup. Redskins aren't real good either but they're better than the Bucs.

Seattle (1-2) at Undiepoolis (3-0) - I thought the Colts' D might be tired last week in Arizona after 45 minutes on the field in Miami the week before, but they were all over Kurt Warner. Now they're home (wherever the place is) and the Colts will beat the Seahawks, who are down to their third string left tackle, with Seneca Wallace at QB. It's early in the season, but I'll say it - don't be surprised if we see an all-Manning Super Bowl in February.

New York Giants (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3) - Giants only allowed the Bucs to gain a total of 86 yards last week. I know the Bucs aren't very good, but the Chiefs aren't either. This is the third straight road game for the Giants (Dallas and Tampa) so the game might not be the blowout it would be if it meant anything and if it weren't way out west at Arrowhead..

Baltimore (3-0) at New England (2-1) - Fred Taylor has been a tremendous free agent pickup for the Pats. After 11 years, the Jags let him walk in free agency, and he was instrumental last week with 105 yards in the win over the Falcons. But the Falcons don't have much D, and the Ravens do. Both of these teams are at the top of the charts stat wise. I was impressed with the Patriots win over the Falcons last week, taking the game over in the second half. but the Ravens are better than the Falcons. Toughest call of the week? George wants to call this one, after getting it right last week, taking the Pats over the Falcons. So here's George: and, George, after a serious flip, takes the Patriots. I agree with George (so does Peter King this week) because I think that Tom Brady has made it back, and if his receivers don't drop balls like they did last week (they won't dare to) the Patriots can eke out a win at home.

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3) - Division game. Browns have replaced Brady Quinn with Derek Anderson. Anderson actually replaced Quinn midway through the game at Baltimore, and threw 3 INT's, but he gets the start this week. Bengals have beaten Green Bay and the Steelers since the home loss to the Broncos (on the Immaculate Deflection play). Browns are in total disarray, so take the Bengals here.

Tennessee (0-3) at Jacksonville (1-2) - Division game. Titans were 9th in the league in 08 in pass defense, but they gave up 676 passing yards in the first two games. They did much better in the rain in New York, allowing Mark Sanchez only 146. They lost big Albert Haynesworth and Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz (to the Lions), but Kerry Collins is just not very good this year. Titans were 13-3 last year (they lost by three in the playoffs to the Ravens) but that was 2008. I'm taking the Jags at home.

     the 2:05 MDT games:

Buffalo (1-2) at Miami (0-3) - Division game. Chad Pennington is out for the season and maybe for his career, with a dislocated right shoulder (he's already had two surgeries on it, and here comes the third). Chad Henne, a second round pick in 08, out of Michigan, replaced Pennington and was 10-19-1-92 against the Chargers. His back up will be Pat White, 2nd round pick out of W Virginia, who has seen limited action as a wildcat QB.

Bills lost starting safety Donte Whitner with a broken thumb that will need surgery, and starting CB Leodis McKelvin with a broken bone in his leg (placed on IR). Even worse for the Bills, maybe, is the fact that Terrell Owens did not catch a pass against the Saints. That broke his 185 game streak of consecutive games with at least one catch. Is TO happy? I think not.

Dolphins lost LB Joey Porter in the second quarter last week in San Diego, and the Chargers scored 20 of their 23 points in the second half. Porter (hammy owie) is very iffy for this game. This is a tough call, but Henne did OK last week, and he's been getting all the snaps in practice and the Dolphins are all about the run game anyway.

New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans (3-0) - Saints rushed for 222 yards against the Bills, even though they were without their best rusher, Mike Bell. Pierre Thomas came back from an injury and got 126 on 14. This should be a great game - Jets D under new head coach Rex Ryan is tops in the league, while the Saints O is tops in the league. They won't get 200 on the ground this week, but I'm going with the Saints O in this one, because they've been together longer and because they're at home.

     the 2:15 MDT games:

Dallas (2-1) at Denver (3-0) - Dallas has the best run O in the league, but who have they played? Tampa and the Panthers, with a combined record of 0-6. Oh, and the 3-0 Giants. Broncos lead the league in total defense and points scored, but who have they played? Oakland and the Browns, with a combined record of 1-5. Oh, and the 2-1 Bengals (who have beaten the Packers and Steelers). So, what will give at Mile High this Sunday? Dallas will give. Their big fat O line will be sucking air by the third quarter, and Josh McDaniels is ten times the coach that Wade Phillips is. Broncos win this one, making it look easy by the 4th.

St. Louis (0-3) at San Francisco (2-1) - Division game. Niners RB Frank Gore will miss at least two weeks with an ankle owie. Glen Coffee, a rookie out of Alabama, looked good in pre season. Niners are smarting after a last second loss in Minnesota and will take it out on a division opponent that is a contender for the number one draft pick next year.

     the SNF game:

San Diego (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2) - San Diego is 0-13 in Pittsburgh, including an 11-10 loss last November, and a 35-24 playoff loss in January. But Phillip Rivers has 739 yards passing the last two games. Pittsburgh's O line is struggling, just like last year, and their run game is hard to see, but Ben has a knack for big plays after the defense keeps them in it. I'll take the Steelers in what should be a very interesting game.

     the MNF game:

Green Bay (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0) - Division game. Packers RB Ryan Grant got 99 yards on 26 carries last week - not too bad except it was against the Rams. Vikings were trailing by 4 with just seconds to go, and needed a miracle with the ball on the Niners 32. Brett Favre delivered the miracle, moving around to avoid the rush, then throwing a strike to Greg Lewis (who?) at the back of the end zone. It needed a replay to confirm that Lewis came down in-bounds, but miracles happen. The ESPN crew will go nuts about Favre vs. the Packers, and it does make for an interesting show. But it should also be a good game. Packers O line has been struggling, and the Vikings D is very good. I expect some scoring and a fairly close game. But take the home team.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

3 recs  |  Comment 10 comments

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This week

I’m going with a nice parlay:

Denver
Tennessee
NY Giants

free money? Maybe

by super7 on Oct 2, 2009 4:21 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

How, moneyline or ATS?

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with , completely ad-supported, no personal info check it out
Tom Brandstater -nstater +y =Tom Brady 13-3 baby

by RiG on Oct 2, 2009 8:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

check out centsports

link in my sig

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with , completely ad-supported, no personal info check it out
Tom Brandstater -nstater +y =Tom Brady 13-3 baby

by RiG on Oct 2, 2009 8:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good luck!

I picked the Titans, Bills, and Jets differently.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Oct 2, 2009 4:58 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

"Good luck! "

Back at you. Bills at Miami and Jets at New Orleans are tough calls. As is T’s at Jax, but what’s up with Kerry Collins?

A man does what he has to do, and sometimes it’s not what I believe he should do. There’s no reason to use up energy hating him for it. Shoot him if you have to, but don’t hate him.

Louis L’Amour

by bradley on Oct 2, 2009 5:03 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

he's old?

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Oct 2, 2009 6:32 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're right

I also think they need a Young guy ;-)

A man does what he has to do, and sometimes it’s not what I believe he should do. There’s no reason to use up energy hating him for it. Shoot him if you have to, but don’t hate him.

Louis L’Amour

by bradley on Oct 5, 2009 4:01 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

A weekly favorite

Thanks, Brad!

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Oct 2, 2009 6:22 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

is it me...

or does the league have alot of really bad teams this year?? =/

by tunga77 on Oct 3, 2009 4:27 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

there’s a lot of BAD teams, but also a lot of REALLY good teams so far.

I bet it all balances out towards the end, but still it seems you’re either really good or really bad.

"FLAG! Fail on the field. Re-do." -Disco_Stu

by Joe Medina on Oct 3, 2009 4:35 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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