Sucky Short Yardage? Or Not?

by BShrout on Oct 20, 2009 8:04 PM MDT Comment 38 comments

    I've seen comments recently in a couple of different forums referring to how "terrible" the Broncos short yardage game is, and how they will need to "fix" it in order to be truly competitive. The most recent person to point out this weakness in Denver's offense was GeoMak in a comment on a post here at MHR. GeoMak tripped my curiosity as to just how bad our short yardage game is. It has seemed as though we've had an awful lot of drives stall out, leading to punts or settling for field goals.

    I went to the play-by-play records posted on Sportsline.com's website to research this topic. I chose to define "short yardage" as any play that starts from a situation of 2nd or 3rd down with 1 to 3 yards to go for a first down. I intentionally excluded 1st downs with those yardages since they represent an atypical offensive situation. Likewise, 4th downs were excluded since they typically lead to punts or field goal attempts. I further excluded 4-6 yard situations as being medium yardage, and 7+ yards to go as being long yardage situations.

    What I found surprised me. It might just surprise you.

Situation 1: 2nd and 1
4 times in 6 games
1 Run for loss
0 Passes for a loss
1 Run for no gain
0 Incomplete passes
2 Runs for gains
0 Passes for gains
2 First Downs
0 Penalties
0 Touchdowns

What stands out: 50% of the time in a 2nd and 1 situation, we've gotten a first down.

Situation 2: 2nd and 2
11 times in 6 games
0 Runs for a loss
0 Passes for loss
1 Run for no gain
1 Incomplete pass
8 Runs for gains
1 pass for a gain
6 First Downs
1 Touchdown

What stands out: 82% of the time, we gained yards in this situation, and have not lost yardage. 55% of the time we've gotten a first down. 1 time we've scored a touchdown.

Situation 3: 2nd and 3
10 times in 6 games
0 Runs for a loss
0 Passes for loss
3 Incomplete passes
5 Runs for gains
1 Pass for a gain
1 Defensive penalty
6 First Downs
1 Touchdown

What stands out: We have not lost yardage in this situation. 60% of the time we've gotten positive yardage. 60% of the time we've gotten a first down. 1 time we've scored a touchdown.

Situation 4: 3rd and 1
12 times in 6 games
1 Run for a loss
0 Passes for a loss
3 Runs for no gain
0 Incomplete passes
6 runs for gains
1 pass for a gain
1 Offensive penalty
7 First Downs

What stands out: 58% of the time we've gotten a first down.

Situation 5: 3rd and 2
8 times in 6 games
0 Runs for a loss
0 Passes for a loss
0 Runs for no gain
2 Incomplete passes
2 Runs for gains
4 Passes for gains
5 First Downs
1 Touchdown

What stands out: 75% of the time we've gained yards. 63% of the time we've gotten a first down. We've scored 1 touchdown.

Situation 6: 3rd and 3
9 times in 6 games
1 run for loss
1 pass for loss
1 run for no gain
3 Incomplete passes
1 run for gain
2 passes for gain
2 First Downs
1 Touchdown

What stands out: Only 33% of the time have we gained yards. We've gotten a first down only 22% of the time. We've scored 1 touchdown.

Combined Short Yardage
54 times in 6 games
3 runs for losses
1 pass for a loss
6 runs for no gain
9 incomplete passes
24 runs for a gain
9 passes for a gain
1 Defensive Penalty
1 Offensive Penalty
28 First Downs
4 Touchdowns

What stands out: 61% of the time we gain yards in short yardage situations. 52% of the time we get a first down. 7% of the time we score a touchdown. We've committed only a single offensive penalty in these situations. We have not turned the ball over. If a team wants to shut down our offense, they need to get the Broncos to a 3rd and 3 situation. That has been our worst spot of performance.

What do you all think?

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

18 recs | Comment 38 comments

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Comments

Great post B

Good work.

Highly Rec’d of course

by papasteven on Oct 20, 2009 8:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks ps

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 20, 2009 8:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice work

Football Outsiders rates teams offensive lines using similar statistics.

According to FO we rank 24th in power situations (3rd or 4th and less than 2) and 28th in getting stuffed. Much of this I attribute to the transition from the ZB scheme we employed under Shanny to the power/trap scheme McD seems to prefer.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Oct 20, 2009 8:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

scheme transition makes sense

by BShrout on Oct 20, 2009 9:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and we have just had soem ugly execution in there as well....

Darrell Reid falling down comes to mind…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's Mr.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 20, 2009 10:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

And as I recall

we weren’t any better (at least running the ball) the last few years under Shanny’s system. We always needed the bootleg toss to the fullback to score TDs from short yardage (the QB draw in the Elway years—OK maybe that was more from the 5 yard line…).

"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington

by Broncs Cheer on Oct 20, 2009 11:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bootleg

is a key ingredient of the ZB scheme. In a ZB teams usually leave the backside DE or LB unblocked. The bootleg action is used to influence them to stay home. When they don’t you use the boot to exploit their over-pursuit. It’s a key ingredient of the system.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Oct 21, 2009 6:51 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

thanks for that nugget

as long as you're paying attention

by neurospasm on Oct 22, 2009 5:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

awesome work

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 20, 2009 9:20 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

by BShrout on Oct 20, 2009 9:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I didn't add much there. A post like this pretty much speaks for itself. Rec'd, once again, sir.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 20, 2009 9:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our running game has been somewhat consistent,

but what has our longest run been so far? Taking a guess here, 28 yds? The OLine isn’t blocking consistantly or something. There is something definitely wrong there. I look for us to get better in areas we were’nt all through the season. Some of the nfl teams that start out with a bang and then fizzle, show their hand too early and mediocre teams exploit them. McDaniels has shown a little different plan each week and I would venture a guess that most of our opponent coaches are scratching their heads right now thinking of a way to beat us.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 20, 2009 9:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

+1 bfree

by papasteven on Oct 20, 2009 9:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

good points

btw, longest run from scrimmage is a 45 yarder by buckhalter

by BShrout on Oct 20, 2009 10:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think swg had a good point

we’ve been transitioning from a zone-blocking scheme to more of a power/trap scheme. That could explain a good piece of the inconsistency.

by BShrout on Oct 20, 2009 10:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe tey need to do a little zone-blocking on some plays.

And that may be a part of McDaniels’ playbook he hasn’t opened up yet. It would be exciting to see Moreno bust one for 70 or 80 yds.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 20, 2009 10:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well this is goal number one to work on during our bye week.

2009 NBA Champions L.A Lakers
2009 NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant

by weazel on Oct 20, 2009 10:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

First, Rec'd! Great Stuff, BShrout. Second,

What is the benchmark to judge this against? What it the league average I wonder….Not to send you on a thesis project or anything. lol

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Oct 21, 2009 12:10 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

hmmmmm . . . I'm not sure

Short of going to every game’s play-by-play, I’m not sure how to garner the stats.

I do know that our 3rd Down Conversion Percentage is currently 42%. This puts us at 11th in that statistic in the 2009 NFL.

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 12:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll have a little extra time this weekend

house to myself, maybe I’ll dig around a bit — no promises tho’ LOL

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 12:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what Football Outsiders measures against (league average)

And SWG posted our rank above. I also did a FanPost recently noting our short-yardage difficulties (according to FO).

I think your numbers show that we aren’t absolutely atrocious. Still, we should be a whole lot better than we are, especially when you consider the rest of the league

"I certainly don't put myself in [Tom Brady's] class. He's probably the best quarterback to ever play this game. He's got the rings to show it. I didn't beat him. Our team beat the New England Patriots." --- Kyle Orton

by Sharpe as a Tack on Oct 21, 2009 9:08 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Appreciate your work

previously I felt the most important down was 3rd and short. that is why I took the moniker 3nS, but this sight incouraged me to research and I started with Chicago and Denver then I realized it was more work than what I wanted to do. So I really appreciate what youve done.

The little research I did I realized that 3rd and short wasn’t as automatic as one would think. Some people expect runs in those situation but passes are just as effective. So I’d like to see Denver pass a little more on 3rd and short and maybe it’ll open up the runs when needed.

I wish I could change my moniker because I don’t think 3rd and short is as big a deal anymore.

... if you have a belief, you will tend to find things that support it. But if you have a prejudice, you’ll move heaven and earth to maintain it. BroncoBear

by 3nS on Oct 21, 2009 3:36 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks for the kind words

How about just telling everyone that your handle 3nS stands for Three New Stars, like Orton, Dawkins and Moreno (or any other combination of 3 you might like)? ;-p

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 7:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nicely done, but what about comparing those numbers to a team like, say, the Saints? :)

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 21, 2009 2:06 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

It's in the works

As Sharpe as a Tack reminded us, he also did a post on short yardage that is well worth a read.

I’m currently reviewing the play-by-plays for 6 teams to use as a comparison to our numbers. The teams are the top two in terms of first downs, #16/17, and #31/32. That should give a reasonable cross-section (I hope).

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 3:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The way I see it

The seems to be geared to either getting a first on 2nd down, based on a decent gain after the catch, or having 3rd and short. Considering that this situation will come up at least twice a drive, only converting 50-60% means that half our drives are ended on a 3rd and short situation. I would think our #‘s should be in the 80-90% range considering thats the point of the scheme, give very manageable 3rd down situations to take advantage of. Maybe I’m just smokin’ something :)

by gOOn on Oct 21, 2009 2:46 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you have a very good point

We’ve had 78 drives in our first 6 games.

We’ve had 29 3rd and 1-3 yards to go situations.

We’ve managed 14 first downs in those situations.

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post and some good comments above

My two cents: I’m one of those that’s been bemoaning our 3rd and short game from a couple of different perspectives. First, ZB teams tend to be lighter on the O-line and blocking techniques are different enough that when asked to power block, ZB specialists generally don’t do well. Witness Shanny’s offenses over the past few years and even more glaring, the Texans problems in converting short and goal has cost them at least a couple of games this year – Texans O-line coach: Alex Gibbs. I love the ZB, but not on third and short. Second, why push what is not your strength? I’m kind of amazed at the play-calling in these situations as I think misdirection, such as traps and bootlegs, can be so much more successful in these situations. Shanny actually had a number of these plays (like my favorite, fake dive and pitch) that worked well. Josh has so many weapons at his disposal and I don’t understand why we’re not exploiting them more. Furthermore, if you use those enough, the power dive can be more successful as the opposing D has to keep in mind, and scheme for your whole bag of tricks, so to speak. To me, 58-63% conversion is kinda lousy and to be truly upper-echelon, this has to improve – I agree with gOOn’s 80-90% goal.
Go Broncs!

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Oct 21, 2009 3:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

McDaniels has been gradually expanding the playbook

for the pass offense. Maybe he’s doing the same for the run offense. As the line masters more techniques perhaps we’ll see a more efficient run game with a larger variety of blocking schemes.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Oct 22, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point.

I think Coach has been very adept at tailoring playbook additions to the speed at which the players can master the pieces.

by BShrout on Oct 22, 2009 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like McD's philosophy for passing...

ie… “we take what the defense gives us”. Seems like 3rd and short is the only time I’ve seen him abandon this philosophy and apply a “take what we want” approach which is kinda the macho “we can get 1 yard by stuffing it down your throat” mentality. My money is on seeing more play action in these situations in the future. Our o-line just isn’t built to push a 7 man front backwards.

"as in football so in life"

by asinsoin on Oct 21, 2009 4:17 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah Nice post B !!

and rec’d for the hard work putting those stats together. Thanks

"as in football so in life"

by asinsoin on Oct 21, 2009 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed!

The only time McD’s play calling suffers is when we try to run off left guard against big DT’s like Wilfork and others. We aren’t built to run between the tackles when the other team knows it is coming. I think coaches fall in love with what they see other teams doing and try to make it work regardless of their personnel. Watching the way Baltimore and Tennesee busted long runs between the tackles on third and short over and over again last year makes you want to imitate that style. Overall, McD avoids this temptation, but third and short has been the exception that proves the rule. The New England game was a prime example, but it happened against SD as well.

I’d like to see the old Terrel Davis toss play around the left side that we used to run. Our line is built for this play, and Moreno would run it very well. Hillis could block it as well as Griffith used to, and I think we have a better chance of gaining one yard with Moreno in space than trying to run up the middle.

Overall, our short yardage conversion rate hasn’t been terrible, but it needs to improve. The great part about all this is that we are nitpicking McD’s short yardage results instead of wondering how we are going to avoid giving up 35 points a game like we did last year.

All work and no play makes Homer something something.

by GrizBronc on Oct 21, 2009 4:35 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

Your statement says it all:

The great part about all this is that we are nitpicking McD’s short yardage results instead of wondering how we are going to avoid giving up 35 points a game like we did last year.

Sad, isn’t it when being in the top 11 for 3rd Down Conversion % is a reason to nitpick?

Love your quote.

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 8:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Being super positive here - If you can stand more koolaid...

Is it possible for McDaniels to be able to turn every negative around to either not a negative or even to a new positive ? As an example I’m thinking of the return game. That whole squad got way better along with Mr. Royal – or are there some areas where, as has been suggested we just don’t have the personnel ?

Was ain't Is.

by oncobronco on Oct 21, 2009 9:07 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

great question

worthy of research and a post. ;-p

Can McD turn every negative around? That remains to be seen.

What I find so encouraging is his insistence on the fact that there is always something the team can do better. That attitude helps the team avoid the danger of arrogance, and keeps them grounded in the need to practice and improve.

I love a quote I heard on a video clip where McD was mic’d (this is a paraphrase) that went like this: “No more ‘My bad.’ Just do your job.”

I also love the fact that in player interviews, our “star” players are very quick to credit all of the things that their teammates did right which enabled the “stars” to do what they did.

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 9:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent analysis

About playing against Joe Namath "He's the best in the Business, he can do everything, but I've never seen a Quarterback yet that can throw on his back." - Dave Costa 1969

by Denver Diehard on Oct 22, 2009 12:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I can only remember one QB sneak so far this year (when we were trying to set up the long field goal before the end of the half last week). Is McDaniels not a believer? I remember Brady doing plenty of those on silent counts the past 3 years.

by dr.mort on Oct 22, 2009 7:05 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs