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Stat wandering and Orton

So I've wanted to do this comparison since the preseason but certain life circumstances (relocating from South Carolina to Washington State) have REALLY hampered my ability to study football thus far.  In any case, I finally have a few hours to sit down and write.

I initially wanted to put this thing together because I was a bit......flustered by what I was seeing in the preseason in the way of play calling and QB performance (I was about to jam a pencil into my eye if I saw another bubble screen or dump off).  I started thinking that there has to be a method; a development pattern of sorts, that could be used to see into the future.  Enter Matt Cassel.  What a great way to see the growth of McDs system in a new QB and maybe to see how Orton is holding up in comparison to the Patriots of last year (11-5).  Cassel certainly isn't Orton, and the Broncos aren't the Patriots, but McD obviously had some interest in bringing Cassel into the Broncos organization and no one can deny that the Broncos are utilizing the same (at least real close) passing philosophy that the Patriots did.  So here are the numbers.

              WK    Result                    Comp        Att      Pct     Yds    Avg     TD    Int    Sck    SckY    Rating

Cassel    1       W   17-10 KC          13          18     72.2    152     8.4      1       0      2        16         116

Orton                W   12-7   Cinci       17          28    60.7    243     8.7      1       0      3        16         100.7

Cassel    2       W   19-10 Jets        16          23     69.6    165     7.2      0       0      4         9           89.9

Orton                W   27-6   Clev        19          37     51.4    263     7.1      1       0      0         0           83.5

Cassel    3        L   13-38  Miami    19          31     61.3    131     4.2      1       1      4         17         68.1

Orton                W   23-3  Oak         13          23     56.5    157     6.8      1       0      0          0           92.1

Cassel    4        W   30-21 SF          22          32     68.8    259     8.1      1       2      5          26         77.5

Orton                W   17-10 Dal          20          29     69       243     8.4      2       0      3         22         117.5

Cassel    5        L   10-30   SD         22          38     57.9    203     5.3      0       1      4        10         61.6

Orton                W   20-17 NE          35          48     72.9    330     6.9      2       1      2          9           96.7

Cassel    6       W   41-7   Den        18          24     75       185     7.7      3       0      6          38         136.3

Orton                W   34-23 SD          20          29     69       229     7.9      2       0      1          2           115.4

Cassel    7       W   23-16 STL         21          33     63.6    267     8.1      1       2      3         17         73.7

Orton                ????????                                                                                                              

Cassel    8        L   15-18  Indy         25          34     73.5    204     6         0       1      0        0           76.1

Cassel    9        W   20-10 Buff         22          32     68.8    234     7.3      0       0      1        8           89.8

Cassel    10      L   31-34  Jets         30          51     58.8    400     7.8      3       0      3       14         103.4

Cassel    11      W   48-28 Miami      30          43     69.8    415     9.7      3       1      2       7           114

Cassel    12      L   10-33   Pitts       19          39     48.7    169     4.3      0       2      5        24         39.4

Cassel    13      W   24-21 Seatt       26          44     59.1    268     6.1      1       0      3       8           84.3

Cassel    14      W   49-26 Oak        18          30     60       218     7.3      4       1      3        8           108.1

Cassel    15      W   47-7   Ariz        20          36     55.6    345     9.6      3       0      1        12         116.1

Cassel    16      W   13-0   Buffalo    6            8       75       78       9.8      0       0      1        5           105.2

So what can be derived from a look at the two, side by side (other than I really stink at inserting tables)?  Maybe nothing.  But there are a few things that stick out to me.

First, the Pats O-line isn't even in the same league as what Orton has got watching his back.  That and Orton is probably better at getting the ball out of his hand quicker.  In the first 6 games under McD, Cassel was sacked 25 times compared to Ortons 9. Wow!!  Second, Interceptions.  Through 6 games, Cassel had 6 compared to Ortons 1.  There are other things to be gleaned from the comparison but ultimately, Orton is blowing Cassel out of the water through the first six games.  But to be honest, I'd be upset if he wasn't.  Orton is a much more experienced QB than Cassel at this point and should outperform him.  But back to my initial question, when is the play calling going to open up?

In game 6, the Patriots absolutely destroyed us.  We turned the ball over 5 times and the Patriots just smeared us into the turf.  This game however, is where things started to change for Cassel.  Up to this point, most of Cassel's passes are short (read bubble screens and dump offs).  Welker and Faulk are the primary recipients and Cassel is averaging about 6-7 yards per pass and there are very few over 15 yards.  In game 6, although his stats are relatively underwhelming, Moss, Welker and Watson all had receptions over 27 yards. From this point forward Cassel gets it.  The offense opens up and they lay some serious wood on teams.  They still lose a few, 3 to be exact (Indy, Jets and Pittsburg) but they're firing on all cylinders.  The Broncos are weeks ahead of the 2008 Patriots.  We don't have a Randy Moss (there isn't another one, maybe Wayne or Fitz) to stretch the field and consistently snag 60 yard bombs.  What doesn't come across well in these stats is the distribution of the ball. 

Last year, the Patriots had 7 players with a reception over 24 yards.  After 6 games the Broncos have 8 players with a reception of 24 yards or greater (6 FREAKIN GAMES).  The 2008 Patriots had 5 players with 20 or more receptions.  The Broncos are on pace to have 8.  Orton is light years ahead of where Cassel was after 6 games.  We've watched his Passing Percentage increase steadily and his yards per pass are consistently better than what Cassel was posting last year.

My initial curiosity was focused on determining when we could expect the offense to open up and lay big-time wood. Now, after looking into things, I don't really care.  We most certainly have the ability right now. But the effectiveness/efficiency is simply awe-inspiring.  Get this!!  Remember that incredible 2007 season Brady had?  He had 6 players with over 300yrds receiving.  We are currently on pace to have 7.  Orton is also on pace to throw the ball almost 100 times fewer than Brady did that year. I don't know what any of this actually means, but I'm getting REALLY excited.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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One thing about Cassel last year...

Nobody was expecting him to start until the first game. That probably made the lag time in his development more pronounced.

by dextermilo on Oct 21, 2009 1:58 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

also consider

Cassel had been in the Patriot’s system for 3 years before starting.

Orton is doing this in his first year.

Just saying.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 21, 2009 2:04 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Good post

I am not a stats guy. I understand their importance and I like that numbers tell a more complete story because they are based on facts and not feelings. However, I am simply not a stats guy. To me the proof is in the pudding.

That being said, I appreciate when people take the time to put these things together. I respect the hard work it takes and I appreciate the information that is shared. You did a good job (I know you say you suck at tables, but yours is one of the better tables I have seen in quite awhile) and for that alone I give you a Rec.

More importantly then all that though, I hear exactly what your saying. Back in the offseason, after all the madness started to die down some, I started thinking that the combo of McDaniels and that NE style offense might be perfect for a QB like KO. I ready the “Tales from the Sunny Side” and similar articles and I allowed myself to dream of what that may look like. And I know I was not alone there. I think many of us started dreaming these dreams. And now I think what many of us were envisioning is exactly what we are seeing now. Extremely efficient, short passing and a solid running game that both utilize some trickery and oddball formations to create match-up problems with the occasional deep ball thrown in for good measure. And every week the Offense gets better and more intuned and your absolutely right, it is EXCITING.

The thing I keep thinking about all week long is McD’s presser Monday night when he is talking about Orton’s progression and he says something like “We’ve only been doing this for 6 weeks. We are no where near as good as we can be.” Thing about that is, you hear that a lot, but with this guy and this time, I believe it. They are going to get better. MUCH better. It’s crazy. And I, like you, am P U M P E D !!!

"Change is inevitable - except from vending machines."

by EastCoastBronco on Oct 21, 2009 3:40 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I'ts crazy

Yes it is. But, don’t be too quick in characterizing this offense. I’m believing what coach says. In an interview he said they weren’t trying to be a short passing team, they would love to throw it deep and attack a defense every way conceivable. They just aren’t doing it quite yet. More crazyness to come, I’m thinking.

Was ain't Is.

by oncobronco on Oct 21, 2009 5:34 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post, KD

I love stats, so you are getting a rec from me, bro!

I re-watched about 7 Pats games on NFL rewind, and your stats bear out the eye test as well.

It’s amazing how comfortable Orton looks in the pocket, even from two weeks ago. The play to Stokely was a perfect example. He went through all 4 of his reads on that play with the pocket stirring around him. Very poised and polished, in my opinion.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Oct 21, 2009 7:05 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Ortons ability to read defenses pre snap is light years ahead of Cassels

Its right there with the top QB’s in the league imo .He gets no credit for it but pre snap there are few in the league better and hes still learning where to attack defenses within our offenses .

The best thing that could happen to Orton is our schedule . He gets to see Pitt,Ravens,and Chargers 3-4 . The pats ever changing defense ,the Cowboys 4-3 ,and he still gets to see the Giants defense and the Eagles defense .

As a teaching tool you cant ask for anything better in terms of a schedule .

by Hoopforia on Oct 21, 2009 7:35 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Where you @ in WA State...

I live downtown Seattle but go to Canyons in Redmond to watch all NON televised games…where you be?

by PolarBear14 on Oct 22, 2009 12:51 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm still in temp living

but ultimately I will end up somewhere in the tricities, probably Kennewick. Its pretty nice.

by Kdo09 on Oct 22, 2009 6:05 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

We don’t have a Randy Moss (there isn’t another one, maybe Wayne or Fitz) to stretch the field and consistently snag 60 yard bombs.

I would disagree, the Beast isn’t just the Beast because he breaks tackles. One play his rookie year Cutler rolled out and threw it off his back foot 55 yards and Marsh had to field it like a return. He was fifteen yards passed the safety when he should’ve caught the pass Cutler should’ve thrown earlier.

Search “Brandon Marshall Incredible” on youtube for more proof that he’s been a beast since he was a rookie. IMO him and Colston are [have been] busy [since their rookie year] being better all-around receivers (not just big play guys but capable of stretching the field for sure) than those guys you mentioned.

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 22, 2009 2:52 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

not to take anything away...

from those guys you’ve mentioned

they’re the big name recievers in the league for a reason, to be sure

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 22, 2009 2:55 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

edit:

make that his second year, not rookie

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 22, 2009 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs


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