The 2010 Free Agency Question
With the 2009 season well underway, the BYE week provides us with some time to reflect on the first 6 weeks on the season, but also to look forward to the end of the season. The Broncos are looking stronger each week, and if they keep their momentum and playing level up, we (as optimists right?) could see them going for a long play-off run.
But there is reason to look beyond the play offs. I recently started to think about our free agents next year, because we have a lot of quality players coming to the end of their contract. In this fanpost I assume that a CBA will get done, because I am remaining hopeful that it will. If it doesn't, then this topic will still be important, it will just extend the contracts with 1 year of restricted free agency.
After listening to the MHR Radio podcast, it became clear that more people are having questions about the free agency period in 2010. If a CBA is in place, the remaining players of the (great) draft of 2006 will become free agents.
For those of you who don't remember, this was our draft class of 2006:
- Round 1, pick 11: Jay Cutler
- Round 2, pick 29: Tony Scheffler
- Round 4, Pick 22: Brandon Marshall
- Round 4, Pick 29: Elvis Dumervil
- Round 4, Pick 33: Domenik Hixon
- Round 5, Pick 28: Chris Kuper
- Round 6, Pick 29: Greg Eslinger
As you can see, we have Elvis Dumervil, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler, and ofcourse, who didnt get mentioned during MHR Radio, Chris Kuper. Add to that Kyle Orton who came from Chicago this summer, and you see there is a lot of players waiting to get paid.
All these players are currently on their rookie deal, which, especially for Elvis, Chris and Brandon, is a contract value that is far below their production level. With all of them outstanding players, they will command a lot more money, making it unlikely that we can resign all of them. Lets take a look at each player:
Brandon Marshall
Pat Bowlen recently said that Marshall was playing himself into a better deal by his on the field performance, after holding out in the offseason. Marshall has established himself as a one of the best receivers in the NFL since joining the league 4 years ago.
An interesting player to compare Marshall to is the Atlanta Falcons' Roddy White. Although White has been in the league for a year longer than Marshall has, their numbers are quite similar:
Carreer stats:
Marshall: 255 receptions - 3231 yds - 19 TDs - 167 receptions for First Down.
White: 257 receptions - 3921 yds - 20 TDs - 171 receptions for First Down.
White held out this offseason, and the Falcons gave him a 6 year extension, worth 50 million dollars, with 18,5 million guaranteed. Marshall will most likely be looking for a similar deal.
Upside of resigning: Marshall is a great receiving threat against any defense. He often draws double coverage, and is good aquireing yards after the catch.
Downside of resigning: Being one of the best WRs in the league will make Marshall demand a lot of money. For a lot of people, his off-field issues and his health are still a cause for concern. Do you want to spend such a large sum of capmoney on a player with such risks, while you have a large group of others that need to get paid as well?
Elvis Dumervil
Elvis is currently leading the league in sacks, and if he continues on this pace, he will break the single season record for most sacks in one season. Interesting bit by the Denver Post:
The No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft was defensive end Mario Williams.
Houston gave him a six-year contract worth $54 million. To date,
Williams has 32.5 sacks in 52 games.Way back in the fourth round of the same draft, with the No. 126
overall pick, Dumervil was selected. The Broncos gave Dumervil a four-
year deal worth $2 million. He has 34 sacks in 49 games.Thus, Dumervil has nearly two more sacks in three fewer games for $52
million less than the pass rusher drafted 125 picks ahead of him.
Dumervil has been compared to the Colts' Dwight Freeney although he is a little smaller. 2 years ago, Freeney signed a six year, 72 million dollar extension with 30 million dollar guaranteed. Terrell Suggs, another OLB/DE received a 6 year, 63 million dollar deal, with 33 million guaranteed. Though Dumervil's deal might be worth a little less than those, the number should come pretty close.
Upside of resigning: Dumervil has shown to be an excellent fit for the 3-4 system that Nolan is running. He leads the league in sacks and is doing good when asked to drop in coverage. He is an important part in the defensive success of the Broncos
Downside of resigning: The Broncos drafted Robert Ayers in the first round of the 2009 draft. Robert, although a little behind because of coming into training camp late, is catching on well and looks better each game. He plays the same position as Dumervil, and has a large 1st round contract. If Dumervil would be resigned, a large part of the Broncos' cap room is stuck in just 1 position, the OLB spot.
Tony Scheffler
Tony Scheffler is arguably one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL, and has been improving his blocking skills. He causes missmatches for almost any defense. With Daniel Graham and Richard Quinn, he is part of arguably the best Tight End group in the NFL.
Tony's carreer numbers 123 receptions for 1697 yards and 19 Touchdowns. Looking at a contract extension, Scheffler would probably look for an offer a little less than Pittsburgs Heath Miller (184 rec - 2043 yards - 21 TDs), who received a six year extension this summer, worth 35 million dollars, with 12,5 million guaranteed.
Upside of resigning Scheffler is a great weapon in the offense and has shown to be a good blocker as well lately. Like mentioned many times during the San Diego game, he creates mismatches. He has great hands and Orton has started to look more often to him in recent weeks, because he is hard to cover.
Downside of resigning It seems that, with a WR and a TE looking for a new contract, a choice will have to be made between both. The Broncos also still have Graham, who has quite a large contract as well. It doesnt seem wise to spend a large part of the cap money on one of the less important positions on the team (dont get me wrong. Not saying TE's are not important, but compared to QBs, RBs, LTs, CBs etc).
Chris Kuper
Though drafted in 2006, he only played one game in that season, and midway during the 2007 season he earned a starting spot at Right Guard. He has quietly played himself a star on the best offensive line in football (we all agree on that right ;)?). Though selected in the 5th round, he's one of the best young guards in the NFL at age 26.
A year ago, right guard Chris Snee was signed by the Giants for a 6 year extension, worth 41.25 million dollars with 17 million guaranteed. Though Im not sure if their numbers are equal (in sacks given up and such), Kuper is a young talent and a solid part of our great offensive line.
Upside of resigning: With Wiegmann and Hamilton aging, we need to make sure we keep the core together with Harris, Clady and Kuper.
Downside: Post a comment if you can think of one ;)
Kyle Orton
Last but definately not least. Kyle has shown every week that he gets more comfortable in the system. He is careful with the ball, has great work ethic and is a team player.
It's easy to say that Kyle has outperformed Cutler so far, and Cutler received a new deal 2 days ago, a 2 year extension worth 30 million dollars. Kyle is only 26, so it seems likely he will be locked up with a new deal at the end of the season. It is hard to say for how long, but like Guru pointed out, it's probably easily a 10 million dollars per year deal, especially if we make it to the play-offs this year.
Upside: Good QB who's improving in the system each week. Can stay healthy behind our O-line, and should be a solid QB for the next few years.
Downside: Large cap hit, maybe McD is grooming Brandstater to be ready to take over? (I don't think so, but i'm just listing the options).
Winning is everything
What can happen if we do very well this year, is that some of the players are willing to take a less amount of money because they are in a winning environment, something that you have seen happen to players of the Patriots. If that's the case, it could be very well possible that we keep 3 or 4 of these players.
I hope this post provides some food for debate about who to keep. I now Guru asked everyone to make a list of players, maybe this fanpost can provide a discussion point about this topic.
On a sidenote, Barrett and Prater will be restricted free agents in case of a CBA
PS: I have kept my own opinion out of this as much as possible, hoping to provide facts which everyone can use in the discussion. I personally think with Ayers already at OLB, the Broncos cant resign Doom (sad sad sad). I think Orton will be resigned, and if Marshall get's a deal, Scheffler will be let go. So my list of 3 is Orton, Kuper, Marshall, but maybe Scheffler will be able to stay as well, depending on the size of the contracts for everyone.
Anyway, discuss...
If I have missed any important thing, fact, stat, etc, please comment so I can change my post.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
14 recs |
62 comments
Comments
I voted Kuper
because we could easily get into trouble at interior O line, and all the other positions have more depth. But I desperately want Kyle Orton back, and Doom and Brandon and Tony. Great players and great teammates. The Broncos really don’t have that much money tied up in huge contracts so I hope it can happen. Here’s hoping all these guys will give up a bit of a home team discount to stay with a very fun and promising young team.
IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)
by bradley on Oct 22, 2009 9:08 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I had to skip this poll to keep my head from exploding
Doom!! No, gotta be Marshall!! No, Scheffler’s skill set would be hardest to replace… No, we can’t break up the core of our awesome OLine, but, Marshall’s a one-of-a-kind beast, Orton’s the man, No, Doom!!! Scheffler!! Kuper! Orton! KABOOM!!
"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington
by Broncs Cheer on Oct 22, 2009 9:35 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Oh I know it's such a hard choice..I didnt know either..eventually went with Kuper ;)
Bleeding Orange & Blue in The Netherlands
by BroncosNL on Oct 22, 2009 9:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol.
I’m with ya there. I voted Kuper but could change my mind tomorrow. This is a really good problem to have.
All you get from drafting the "best player available" is a team full of good football players.
Cotton McKnight: I'm being told that Average Joe's does not have enough players and will be forfeiting the championship match.
Pepper Brooks: It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em.
by orangeblood on Oct 22, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
no it isn't. Who's jersey should I buy???? hahaha
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Oct 22, 2009 1:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rich Karlis
And walk around with 1 barefoot. :D
All you get from drafting the "best player available" is a team full of good football players.
Cotton McKnight: I'm being told that Average Joe's does not have enough players and will be forfeiting the championship match.
Pepper Brooks: It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em.
by orangeblood on Oct 22, 2009 1:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good call. Plus, I am in kentucky........... It's not like walking around barefoot would make people exile me or whatever.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Oct 22, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Oct 22, 2009 4:27 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Get Kuper's....
I love having a jersey that nobody else has. I’m still rocking my McCaffery jersey.
by SkinnyPB on Oct 22, 2009 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking my next jersey will be "Guru style", with my last name and a number that is meaningful to me.
I hope John is okay with me naming a style of jersey after him. hahahaha
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn Shanny...
and his ridiculously erratic drafting. Alright, let’s take this Clarett guy, he looks good…NOPE. Okay now lets pick a whole bunch of guys that are going to give us cap headaches when all their contracts are up in the same year because they’re all studs.
Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.
by Drizzt396 on Oct 22, 2009 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
dat rat bastad!
"Change is inevitable - except from vending machines."
by EastCoastBronco on Oct 23, 2009 2:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wonder if you can trade draft picks for money....
cause i know you can do that in the NBA, and thats what the lakers did. strong core that won the national championship, nobody in the draft that would make the team better so lets avoid the largely overpaid 1st round unproven rookie and use the money that would’ve gone to him to resign someone we know will prove himself
by march20 on Oct 22, 2009 9:41 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm.... I am hoping for an un-capped year.... and a Super Bowl Win...
With Several Playoff Games at home… and a huge increase in Merch Sales because of the success… and then all the SuperBowl Revenue… Mr. Bowlen will make some smooth cash this season! With a SuperBowl win, it would make it hard for players and coaches to jump ship and would possibly settle for moderate contracts instead of going for bank.
Then Mr. B can take that excess cash and sign those guys with lots of up-front cash, so that when a cap is re-instated, the damage has already been done in the uncapped year.
Plus, when Shanny takes another coaching job, that would be 7 mil. more to work with….
I know it is kind of simplistic and wishful thinking, but my dream would be to keep all these guys.
"So tell me what happened."
"Well, the last thing I remember is seeing this flash of Blue and Orange and the #22... then everything just went black..."
by HillisRanUover on Oct 22, 2009 9:56 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
merch sales
I guess I better go get me some of those socks then!
"Take what you can. Give nothing back!"
by Colorado_Kitten on Oct 22, 2009 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure I have this right but .....
Aren’t all merchandise sales pooled into one large pot and then distributed equally amongst the 32 teams? I am sure I read that somewhere but can’t seem to find it now. I remember Jerry Jones bleating about it a few years back as the Cowboys merchandise sales outstripped every one else’s at the time and they didn’t get the full benefit.
I have so many friends some I haven't even used yet
by BlobTheMagnificent on Oct 22, 2009 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think we can make this work
Let’s compare this past free agent signing period to who we have to resign this year and with an owner committed to winning we have a chance to resign everybody. It may take some small concessions on the players part but we can do this.
This year’s free agent class.
Brian Dawkins-5 years 17 million
Andre Goodman-5 years 20 million dollars
Renaldo Hill-4 years 10 million
Jabar Gaffney-4 years 10 million
Andre Davis-2 years, couldn’t find the terms but probably around 6 million or so
Darrell Reid 3 years 6.8 million
Ron Fields 2 years 5 million
This averages out to less than 3 million dollars per player per year. Very modest. For this year we are paying over 21 million dollars for these 7 players.
Here are the deals I think we could get.
Brandon Marshall 5 years 50 million
Elvis Dumervil 6 years 48 million-Similar to James Harrison of Pitt. deal
Kyle Orton 5 years 35 million-Is this lower than other top quarterbacks-yes, but Kyle Orton is a team guy and he loves Colorado. I think he will see this as a fair deal and jump at the chance to continue to be the man under Josh McDaniels.
Chris Kuper 4 years 16 million
Tony Scheffler 4 years 24 million dollars.
All told this is 35 million per year for 5, core impact players. Obviously I think the odd man out could be Scheffler, especially with Richard Quinn waiting in the wings and all of our talented recievers. But regardless, this year we probably won’t sign any free agents except our own. So Brandon, Elvis, Chris, Kyle and Tony are this years free agent class.
Also next year Shanny should have a job so that’s 7 million Pat Bowlen can spend on players and not on coaches.
by RockyMountainThunder on Oct 22, 2009 9:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Also as I look at this
How in the heck did we get all those players at those prices. Ron Fields 2 years for 5 million dollars. That is an amazing steal. I bet New England would love to have Gaffney for 4 years 10 million now, but he said “no, I’m going with my boy Josh McD”
“No more my bad just make the play”
by RockyMountainThunder on Oct 22, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
great write up!
I couldnt find the numbers of this year but that helps! Thanks!
Bleeding Orange & Blue in The Netherlands
by BroncosNL on Oct 22, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt that Orton would take 7 mil for that long
I think he could walk and likely get 10 million with another team, he is entering the prime of his career and I am sure he wants to max his value for this contract.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
by Broncoman on Oct 22, 2009 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
then again
so much of nfl contracts are not guaranteed. If Orton thinks the Broncos and McD will want him for the life of the contract for sure, he might view this as a better option than testing the FA waters with other teams.
by bushwah on Oct 22, 2009 9:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kuper!
I voted Orton, but Kuper is a high priority as well. Arguments can be made for letting Doom and Scheff go. BMarsh has his own obvious red flags. But Kuper is the only stable piece of interior O-line, which is our strength. Hamilton is not great this year and who knows how many years are left in Casey W, who btw is not going to Pro Bowl this Year too. So to maintain our superior O-line we need new bodies in it. But you can not really replace all 3 – there will be no continuity and you need holdovers who know how system works so the new guys can learn on the field. This makes Kuper 2nd priority.
by si_ice on Oct 22, 2009 10:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Really? Let Dumer go? Are you crazy, have you been watching the games this season thus far?
by Cory in Donkeytown on Oct 22, 2009 1:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Doom
He is awesome. But when decisions are made by the front office, love will (hopefully !) not be an argument. They are running a business. Look, Atwater was let go after the 2nd Superbowl, and he sure was a loved player. What if the team really can not resign all the great players listed above? Someone would be let go. And it will be about value for money, not just production regardless of cost. Trying to judge unemotionally, I see an argument for cutting Doom could be made.
Sure, I’d love Orton, Doom, Kuper to all stay. I wish BMarsh never returns to his erratic past and has a great decade-long career here. I love Scheff, too. And it is very nice we have so many great players. So let’s wait and see.
by si_ice on Oct 23, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure Doom and Atwater can be compared right now.
Doom’s value now is much higher that Atwater’s when they let him go.
That rug really tied the room together...
by Streams Of Whiskey on Oct 23, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Atwater retired...
after the first superbowl win? No?
Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.
by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 7:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I'm not mistaken...
there are two key provisions to the uncapped year relevant here:
1) In order to become a vested unrestricted free agent, you must be in the league six years, rather than four.
2) You can tag as many as six franchise players.
I’m not sure on the compensation rules for players with expired contracts that would become restricted FAs, rather than UFAs (the remaining ’06 draft class). I believe the process involves designating a tender on each player and if someone else sings the player, they must compensate the Broncos according to the tender. Then, you have the six franchise tags. Because this team is so competitive and the slew of RFAs, if Mr. B wants to spend the money, there are certainly guys we can pay the big franchise money to for one year and making the final decision in 2011.
Assuming we see the uncapped year, in my opinion, we should:
1) Lock down Orton during the season because he’s the only one of these guys that will see UFA. I think we could sign him to a reasonable starting QB 3 yr deal that wouldn’t cripple the club or anything.
2) Show Brandon the money early in the offseason. He’s a special playmaker that makes this offense run. He’s a great blocker in the run game. He frees up Eddie from a lot of double coverage. He’s a matchup nightmare. He’s the type of player you don’t want to lose in FA. Plus, other than what appears to have been a heated argument with his new fiancĂ©e, he’s stayed out of trouble the past couple years.
3) Put a a big tender on Elvis and franchise him if no one bites (getting one more look at Ayers in 2010 before making a final decision).
4) We can play the same tender/franchise game with Kuper and Scheffler as well unless we can sign them to bargain long term deals.
by ButteBronco on Oct 22, 2009 12:35 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
There are some things that will make it easier
Marshall without a doubt will get paid, and I would bet pretty strongly that it will happen by the end of the season. But in his case there’s still the off the field concerns that will drive his price down some, which will help.
Dumerville isn’t the player Suggs is he’s just not as versatile and I think that he’s still going to be seen by some as the product of a system that only asks him to rush the passer. That is still a high price but I don’t think Suggs high.
Scheffller likewise is going to be seen as more one dimensional which is going to keep his price down as well. I love him as a receiving threat and I think he’s underrated as a blocker but there’s still a reason why he’s number two on our depth chart. It’s certainly possible that some team in need of a TE will throw a bank at him, but as a TE that’s less likely.
Orton isn’t going to want a different system, I think that he can recognize a good place when he’s in one and isn’t going to want to leave.
Kuper is going to make a ton, he’s big and good and teams have overpaid for Guards so I picked him.
With that being said their contracts are still going to cost a ton of money and I don’t know if we’ll be able to resign all of them. The CBA provisions will help out there a lot.
But there are plenty of reasons not to panic just yet.
by Fan in Exile on Oct 22, 2009 1:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you're spot on abut Orton.
He’s already had a taste of being a quarterback in a system that doesn’t suit him. I’m guessing he doen’t want to chance going back to that.
Also, this year so far has already netted him a lot of money on his next contract, barring a complete meltdown. I believe Orton is a smart guy and can be a very good quarterback when he’s in the right system – he’s showing that now. If he’s not then he could very well end up a back up or starting for the Raiders.
He’s a smart guy, he’ll stick around.
That rug really tied the room together...
by Streams Of Whiskey on Oct 23, 2009 10:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may be in the minority here
But I think we should let Brandon walk, I understand he is an incredible talent, but after the latest round of stunts, it is obvious that the tiger isn’t going to change his stripes, and if we hand him a ton of money I can see him beocming an irresponsible jack ass again very easily. I rather we take care of Doom and guys who go about things the right way.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
by Broncoman on Oct 22, 2009 2:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
It would have to have a major conduct clause to work
Which Brandon and his agent may or may not accept. Personally, I see Marshall as excellent trade bait. Now that he is performing again there are plenty of teams out there that need a proven #1 WR and would be willing to take on the risk.
by rollinthunder on Oct 22, 2009 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
His agent...
is his mentor, and I think an older relative (uncle? I dunno). So I could see the team and his agent ganging up on him and leaning on him real hard to accept a major conduct clause.
Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.
by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 7:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're not in the minority.
I lean towards thinking that way, too. I say lean because it’s obvious how supremely talented Marshall is on the field. He can change games. But if hypothetically letting him go would mean enabling the other 4 to resign, then I would be for it. But if any deal for Marshall is done, regardless of who else they sign, Denver needs to protect themselves by putting protection clauses in the contract or backloading money or however they would do it. If that is a major stumbling block to the Marshall camp, let him walk. It would be very sad to see him go, but he’s another incident away from getting an 8 game suspension.
In the poll I voted for Dumervil. I voted knowing that is a foregone conclusion that Orton will absolutely, positively resign here. He needs the Broncos as much if not more than they need him. But I don’t mean that statement as a belittling one towards him. He’s not stupid; he knows this offense is perfect for him and he’d be a fool to play “contract hardball” and then go someplace else, especially with all the hard work he has put in to learn the offense.
Back to Doom, I believe premium defensive and offensive linemen are what ultimately win you Superbowls. He’s a must. Same goes for Kuper, he would of received my #2 vote. They can NOT allow that O line to be separated. Especially as the thread starter alluded to – Hamilton and Weigmann are in their final years. And Hamilton won’t be here next year, I imagine. Most of the pressure that is able to break through the line comes from his post, does it not?
by Gristle McThornbody on Oct 22, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep Brandon
Totally agree that he is a jack ass but I think folks discount the value of having a huge receiver in this offense. He has a very unique skill set that makes this offense considerably tougher to defend. If Brandon gets his walking papers they need to replace him with a receiver of similar stature or the offense will suffer.
Doom and Kuper must come back. I would be nice and patient with Orton and wait until the playoffs are done and get him on a hometown discount. He clearly recognizes that this is the best situation for him and likely will do what it takes to remain in Denver. As much as Orton is helping his market value this season, Matt Cassel’s performance is probably equaling things out. Orton is the man in the right situation but most teams searching for a new qb are going to have something closer to KC to work with (bad offensive line, avg or below skill players and different offensive system).
by AKfan on Oct 22, 2009 2:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking that as well.....
if you look at the draft class this year there are a lot of great receivers with size. So that might be an option. I believe you’ve got to have your QB locked in, so Orton is the primary focus. Then Kuper, Doom, Marshall (if they keep him) and Scheffler
by bchiper on Oct 23, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Start with the core:
The best teams invariably have great lines/front-sevens, both D and O. Therefore IMO Doom and Cuper are the imperative signings we need to make. Though with an uncapped year I could see Bowlen digging into his pockets and making some front-loaded deals to get these guys to stay. The potential pitfall there is that later when they’re making considerably less than that first year of the deal any of those players will whine about restructuring their deal. Though given McD’s handling of Marshall in this offseason I don’t see that as too big a problem.
Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.
by Drizzt396 on Oct 22, 2009 3:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
A different angle
I say you absolutely keep Doom and B-Marsh and here’s why.
Doom and B-Marsh are rare talents, in fact I don’t think there are any players in the NFL like either of them. Doom with his leverage and long arm ability, and B-Marsh with his size and ability to run after the catch. These players are 1 in a million. Orton, Scheff and Kup are good players no doubt. But, you can find efficient, smart, reliable qb’s, a good pass blocking guard, and a pass-catching TE through Free Agency and the draft. Now I still say we can keep all but those two are all-world talents so I think you do everything you can to keep them.
"No more my bad just make the play"-McJedi
by RockyMountainThunder on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
True....
but we don’t need a good pass blocking guard. We need 2 good pass blocking guards… and a center. We need Kuper, since we know what we’re getting. Then, when Hamilton and Wiegmann leave, we don’t have to replace our entire interior line.
Take a look at the colts line. They can’t run the ball at all due to their interior line problems. I love Orton, but he’s not Peyton Manning yet. We gotta protect him by running the ball.
by SkinnyPB on Oct 22, 2009 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very good article NL
Rec’d for the research and because it was well written. The asides at the end are good too. My feeling is that you start with Doom, start negotiations with Marshall, sign Orton then Kuper and last Scheffler. Orton will be the easiest to sign, IMO. The challenge is to get Doom and Marshall done, with the emphasis on Dumerville. Kuper won’t be hard to sign either. Scheffler needs to hit the weights and build up his forearms and biceps so he can block somebody. Then he can have his money. Otherwise, Hillis can take his place. Anyway it’s done, they are all eligible to be Franchised. I see that distinction being imposed on Marshall or Doom. I’m not saying it would be a good idea to do that to Brandon, but it could happen. I say that because for some reason, the players don’t like the Franchise Tag. Maybe they don’t like the one year giant salary, I don’t know. Somehow it seems to hurt their poor feelings.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Oct 22, 2009 4:38 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Hillis?
Was that a joke? Hillis will be lucky to be a Bronco next year the way he is playing.
Agree though about Scheffler. I would guess he will look for a team where he can get more touches.
by AKfan on Oct 22, 2009 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It won't hurt us to have him on the team.
He isn’t drawing a very large contract, being a late round pick. He won’t get an extensive contract, playing like he is, but he will definitely stick around.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Oct 22, 2009 9:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I went with Kuper
It all starts with the line. If you can keep your line intact then even a mediocre (sp) QB can be better. Same with the D-line. Doom would be my second choice.
by papasteven on Oct 22, 2009 4:50 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
hey guys, i'm not sure on this but isn't DJ williams going to be a free agent next year?
by march20 on Oct 22, 2009 5:06 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Hamilton
I use Rotoworld for this because they have the easiest format and are usually up to date and comprehensive.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=DEN
I have a position on the others (SIGN THEM!!) but part of the point of contingency planning is to figure out ‘what-if’ scenarios just in case. More to the point — we need to prioritize players and figure out who we would give up if we had to give somebody up.
Hamilton’s situation is interesting because of several factors. He may be in decline (I don’t want oversell this point but the weakness at run blocking in the interior OL has become apparent lately). Rather than list all the relevant considerations, let me just say that are many decisions that revolve around him.
It’s not necessarily the case that we can replace Hamilton immediately, so draft picks should be viewed as future starters/current depth. And I’m somewhat more concerned about replacing Hamilton than I am Wiegmann. Also, Guard is more of a concern to me than Center because of the blocking scheme that McDaniels brought in. One solid run blocking/man blocking/pulling Guard would really help, and we can address the Center position later (later in the draft or free agency). Hamilton’s best place on this team may be as Center depth/Guard depth, and that’s assuming we can re-sign him at a reasonable figure.
The real concern regarding Hamilton is a the ‘numbers game.’ We have room for about 9 OLs (8 would be idea but we can’t reach that yet), so we have ‘cover’ the entire OL with that number. Right now we look like this:
[BOLDED ARE 2010 FREE AGENTS ] -see Rotoworld listing to determine if restrictions apply
LT — Clady, Polumbus
LG – Hamilton, Olsen
C — Wiegman (*Hamilton)
RG - Kuper, Hochstein
RT – Harris, Gorin [contract details are unclear]
We’re not truly settled in several areas, although we have more than adequate coverage for the time being. The Tackle position isn’t that secure. In particular, backup RT is a position that we can improve while — at the same time — fixing our need for a run blocking Guard. This is the T/G solution, and it could also fix the LT backup, although we’re reasonably happy with Polumbus there, IMO.
A long-term fix in the OL could have a number of looks. And that’s my point — there are a number of permutations. Hamilton could help us cover the interior, because he has the ability to cover G and C, but the terms of his contract are important. Would he accept a reduced role in the future (we still need to develop his replacement or bring in a FA, so that wouldn’t be immediately), If he doesn’t accept that deal, then we need focus more heavily on the OL. The question is: what’s he worth right now? Our red-zone troubles point to a weakness in the interior OL, so there may be decision coming on both sides regarding Hamilton.
A doctrine insulates the devout not only against the realities around them but also against their own selves. The fanatical believer is not conscious of his envy, malice, pettiness and dishonesty. There is a wall of words between his consciousness and his real self.
-- Eric Hoffer
by Colinski on Oct 22, 2009 5:51 PM MDT reply actions 3 recs
Nice
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Oct 22, 2009 7:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should Resign Marshall,Doom,Kuper, Sheffler and Orton
Cut Graham, Hill, Haggan, Wiegman will retire, let Hamilton go, cut Stokley Re-due Baileys Deal, Draft D-line or O-line. This still costs lots of money but Mr. B could get 7 million if Shanny gets new gig next year and he has to be making a killing so far this year.
by Marvel Man on Oct 22, 2009 8:15 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
cap hits?
What kind of cap hit would we take for cutting Graham? This seems like the only way we can really justify the price scheffler will cost.
I don’t see Haggan or Hill going anywhere, can you explain why this would/should happen?
by bushwah on Oct 22, 2009 9:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Hardly seems to make sense.
"I believed it, until it made sense. Then things changed."
by Tempestuous Binary on Oct 23, 2009 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for all the responses guys! Lot's of great arguments!
Unfortunately the post is of the list on the front page already, so not sure if many more people will see it. But thanks for all replies so far.
Bleeding Orange & Blue in The Netherlands
by BroncosNL on Oct 23, 2009 2:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Needs one more rec to hit the recommended section
I think it deserves it. Nice work NL. Great work actually.
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams
by orange&blue_aussie on Oct 23, 2009 4:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't off my page...Here's #10
Sorry…Been busy but great read and great discussion as well…I voted for KO but would have voted for all if the choice was there…We need to keep all of these guys but I believe that Marshall (and/or Sheff) would be the least difficult to replace, considering the “muli-star of the week” syatem we now have with McD
by BroncoSense72 on Oct 23, 2009 5:50 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Holy Jeebus!
That is one amazing draft class. Kudos to your scouts on that one.
-------
"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by smudgers on Oct 23, 2009 8:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
A bidding war with Shanahan's new team will be a major factor
Shanahan has always had a STRONG preference for veterans that are he is familiar with. It is very reasonable that he would aggressively pursue the 4 Broncos he drafted. Plus, the owner that hires Shanahan will not be a penny pincher, he will be the type of owner that will be willing to get the players needed to make his new coach successful.
I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.
by Arctic Bronco on Oct 23, 2009 10:26 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
The order I think that they need to be resigned in
1- KO He has proven his talent and we dont really have anyone to replace him with. I dont see Sims as anything more than a good backup and Brandstater is several years away
2- Doom. We did just draft Ayers but Doom is such a force that I would hate to see him leave. I couldnt stand watching Shanny let our top pass rushers leave (Berry, Pryce, and Heyward) and I think was a major cause to our terrible defenses of the last couple of years.
3- Kuper. Hes a stud G and do not want our oline dominence to take any step back.
4- Bmarsh. Hes a top 5 talent but also a top 5 headcase. If he keeps his ass in check I will love rooting for him for the next 5 10 years. We did just draft McKinley and with Royal we do have depth in case he left. However, Bmarsh is a huge weapon that makes our offense so deadly. Shef. He is easily the most expendable. We are already paying DG big money and TE shouldnt really be that high of a cap hit. Plus we just drafted Quinn
5
I do think we can sign everyone as the cap has gone up significantly every year. What we also need to start looking at is when do we start extending Clady and Harris? I don’t want either of those players getting a sniff of their final contract year especially Clady. He has 3 years left after this year correct?
by purplesocks on Oct 23, 2009 1:49 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont know why that Bmarsh line is strikedout
Ignore that
by purplesocks on Oct 23, 2009 1:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
unintentional striked
There are two ways to perform the various functions. I usually use the logos directly above (bold, italic, strikethough, blockquote, link, image) but you can produce the same effect by alternative means, which you discover to your chagrin when you do it accidentally.
A liberal use of the hyphen (two hyphens for a dash) can accidentally result in creating a struck through passage. Always remember to put a space in-between when you use the hyphen.
Your line with “5 – 10 years” didn’t contain a space in front of the ‘10’ so it began a section of text that was struck through.
A doctrine insulates the devout not only against the realities around them but also against their own selves. The fanatical believer is not conscious of his envy, malice, pettiness and dishonesty. There is a wall of words between his consciousness and his real self.
-- Eric Hoffer
by Colinski on Oct 23, 2009 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
there will be no deal before 2010
i am 99 percent sure they will be a lockout in 2 years plob a haif season strike hope i am wrong the players want more of the pie the owners dont want to give up more money the good news if this happents is brady and manning will be a year older
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
by j-man on Oct 23, 2009 7:28 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
RFA compensation
I think an angle which needs to be considered a little more is the compensation received during the uncapped year if a player is signed away. I believe you receive a draft pick matching the round the signed player was originally drafted. This would change the thinking slightly as B.Marsh and Kuper would probably be higher priority as the Broncos would receive less if they are signed by another team.
Orton is a priority, and barring a Delhomian collapse, is vital to keep the offense progressing. He will probably be an easier resign for a lot of the reasons mentioned by other posters. Additionally, I think his stock is still tempered by previous perception of being tagged a “game manager” and a product of the system.
As far as Doom, he does not fit a lot of defenses due to his size. The Broncos will probably wait for an offer then decide to match it or receive the comp pick.
by captain80 on Oct 24, 2009 12:56 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Good thoughts captain80
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Oct 24, 2009 5:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
























