Jets at Oakland last October 19 – Raiders won 16-13 in OT. This is a very different Jets team, but they just lost Kris Jenkins for the year and Richard Seymour is getting into the S&B thing, guaranteeing the S&B thing will make the playoffs.
SD at KC? Philip Rivers must be looking like a half-baked pizza after all the hits the Broncos laid on him on Monday night. SD won both games last year, but by just one point.
Your low risk picks look good to me.

The Browns pass rush was dismal last Sunday and gave Ben plenty of time to hit the open receiver. I don’t see him having that comfort this week and may feel the turf a few times.

I am convinced that New Orleans is an elite team, but the Dolphins are going to be a tough matchup for them, especially if they control the clock like they did in the Indianapolis game. Sleep on the Dolphins at your own peril. While I wouldn’t be shocked if New Orleans wins, I think Miami has a great chance to steal this game.

and looking at the other “risky” picks I’m guessing I’ll probably get pummeled again this week (if 8-6 two weeks in a row can be called pummeling) :D

Take it to the bank!

Phyllis is still going to be gun-shy, Chefs are riding high after getting their first win and Arrowhead is a tough place for any visiting team.

My favorite upsets this week are AR over NYG and KC over SD;

Here is my argument against your hierarchy…..first, it seems to suppose that a high risk pick is such b/c of talent and/or past performance….this makes sense, but is a horrible way to rank upsets. The big upsets come when things are going on inside teams that challenges or enhances (recognizing an upset can come from a bad team having a good day OR a good team having a bad day) their ability to perform on ONE specific Sunday…..these challenges overcome their talent and/or confidence (generated from past performance)…..for those games that demonstrate great gaps in talent/past performance, or would most likely be considered high-risk picks, here each team must BOTH play better, as the bad team, and worse, as the good team, for the upset to occur

For both NYG & SD: these are good teams with no reason on paper to lose against ARI & KC, but both teams are struggling….SD certainly has lost confidence after losing the AFC West and being beat soundly at home, if they were well coached, I would expect they bounce back, but they are not well coached….NYG seem to have just had a bad day against NO, but the defensive scheme was questioned….this happened in the offseason when Osi (maybe it was J. Tuck) walked out of practice…we can’t forget that Sheridan has replaced Spags and this team’s D may take a hit. The weak schedule may have softened the hit…..ARI will not be an easy test after taking a hit to their confidence

For both KC & ARI, ARI is challenged by their inconsistent D, after the INT for TD ag. HOU though and SEA game, they may be playing up to last year’s level…their is potential…Whisenhunt may have the O getting going as well. KC is certainly improving. How much? We can’t completely say. They are at least playing like a disciplined football team and Cassel & Bowe should give them hope.

Based on this, I see ARI & KC a little underrated going into these games and NYG and SD a little overrated, based on potential weaknesses starting to be exploited and confidence challenges……we’ll see though, its not like I really know whats going on, its all just guesswork in the end……especially with upsets

I wish you would have picked the Chiefs/SD. I think the Chiefs are going to take this one, and even though I hate both teams, I hate the Chargers more!!