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13 Reasons to Believe in 13-3 Revisited

    In the offseason, I wrote a pair of tongue-in-cheek articles that I called "13 Reasons to Believe in 13-3."  The articles were relatively well received, though one respondent did call it "The stupidest thing I've ever heard."  He apparently missed the part about how it was an attempt at humor.  In any event, after our 6-0 start, I decided to revisit the idea of 13 reasons to believe.

    What I did, as invalid as it is at this point, was to apply the formula I use in my "Try to Not Laugh" series to the remainder of our 2009 schedule.  I realize that those predictions will undoubtedly change as each of the teams wins/loses their coming games, but it seemed like a fun thing to do at the time.  After the jump, I'll share 13 more reasons to believe.

 

Star-divide

1)@Baltimore (3-3) -- W to go 7-0
This will be another close nail-biter.  It will come down to the team that has the ball last.  If we contain Flacco, we will win, since the Ravens' defense has not be able to consistently stop the other team.

2)Pittsburgh (4-2) -- W to go 8-0
The formula predicted a strong win here.  Pittsburgh has Minnesota and bye prior to playing us, so they come into the game 4-3.  At this point in time, I don't see the Pittsburgh O-line being able to protect Big Ben well enough for him to be effective -- he's been sacked 16 times so far (for the 7th worst position in the league in protecting the QB)

3)@Washington (2-4) -- W to go 9-0
It's Washington, a team almost as dysfunctional as the faders.  Need I say more?

4)San Diego (2-3) -- W to go 10-0
San Diego faces Kansas City, Oakland, the Giants, and Philadelphia before coming to Denver.  At best, they split these four games and come to Invesco with a 4-5 record.  While they may be playing knowing that they have to win out to make the playoffs, I don't see them being able to beat Denver in Denver.

5)NY Giants (5-1) -- W to go 11-0
New York faces Arizona, Philadelphia, San Diego, a Bye, and Atlanta before the Broncos.  I see them winning at least 3 of those games, to come into Denver with an 8-2 record.  The formula predicted a win here, and New York proved themselves to be vulnerable in the New Orleans game.

6)@Kansas City (1-5) -- W to go 12-0
The Chiefs have San Diego twice, a Bye, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Pittsburgh before meeting up with the Broncos.  Kansas City has been playing well, and looks to be a perfect team to play the spoiler role this year.  I could see them pulling out wins in 3 of those games, which would make them 4-7 when they meet us.  I give the Broncos the edge, since McDaniels is extremely familiar with Cassel's strengths and weaknesses and will be able to advise Nolan on the best way to shut him down.

7)@Indianapolis (5-0) -- L to go 12-1
The Colts face St Louis, San Francisco, Houston twice, New England, Baltimore, and Tennessee prior to Denver.  I could see New England and either Baltimore or Houston pulling off an upset.  This would make Indianapolis 10-2 entering their contest with the Broncos.  My formula predicted a win, but I have a feeling that we'll drop one somewhere, and this is the most likely candidate.

8)Oakland (2-4) -- W to go 13-1
It's the Raiders, does anyone need any further explanation?

9)@Philadelphia (3-2) -- L to go 13-2
The Eagles have the Giants twice, Dallas, San Diego, Chicago, Washington, Atlanta and San Francisco before hosting the Broncos.  I see them splitting the 8 games, making them 7-6 coming into the contest, desperately needing a win to retain any hopes of a playoff spot.  My formula predicted a win.

10)Kansas City (1-5) -- W to go 14-2
See the notes above about Kansas City.  While this could be a let-down game, I think McDaniels will resist the temptation to let the team glide, and instead use this as a final tune-up for the playoffs.

11)My formula predicted wins in all of our remaining games.  But I think 16-0 is overly optimistic even for a kool-aid drinker like me.  I could see the Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York, Indianapolis and Philadelphia games all going either way.  However, I don't see us (at this point in time) losing more than 3 of those games which would take us to a 13-3 record.

12)To meet the more pessimistic predictions of a 7-9 season, we would have to lose 9 of our last 10 games.  That simply won't happen -- Kansas City twice, Oakland and Washington pretty much guarantees us a 10-0 record at the absolute worst.  Of the remaining 7 games (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, New York, Indiapolis, and Philadlephia) I can see us easily going  3-3 which would take us to the 13-3 record.

13)Finally, 7 of our WRs have over 100 yards receiving, 2 of our RBs have over 300 yards rushing, 4 of our Defensive unit have 2 or more sacks, which equals 13.  Hence, 13-3.

13-3 until we aren't baby!!!!!

Edited, additional thought: Even allowing for the fact that my formula has been accurate only 62% of the time, that would project out to 6-7 wins (6.8 when calculated), which would place us in the 12 to 13 win area, so why not go with the better sounding 13?  :D

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Awesome post 13-3 baby

Heres something i just figured out if were 9-0 heading into the home game against san diego and they are 4-5 and we beat them to go 10-0 they will be 4-6 with 6 games left and us having a 6 game lead and 2 head to head wins against them will give us an early division clinch. just a thought i dont like to think that far ahead but i really feel like the only game were going to lose is against indianapolis but barely…if that

Mile High Salute

by TommyTSlice on Oct 22, 2009 10:20 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope you're right

The great news is that we should be competitive in every game right down to the last one.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 5:26 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like your optimism, but I think you have a couple of those wrong.

1. @Baltimore – I think we may lose this one. The Ravens are also coming off a bye week, so it balances out. It will come down to Ray vs. Orton, and Doom vs. Flacco. My money is on Doom, but I think we lose by a squeaker 10-7
2. Pittsburgh – This game could go either way, Big Ben is the key. I see him winning the game in the end on a last minute throw to Hines. 21-14
3. N.Y. Giants – After taking a beating from NO, The Giants will not lose another game.
4. Indy – Payton is just too much – another close game due to our running attack keeping him off the field. 14-10
5. @ KC – not sure what the mojo is, but we seem to have a problem beating KC in their house. I see us losing one divisional game and this could be it.

So all in all, I see us losing 5 games and winning 11. I do see us going to the AFC championship this year, but waiting on the SuperBowl till next year.

by broncboy on Oct 22, 2009 10:53 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the "losing at KC" was Mike Shanahan thing of late...

…and don’t forget we did upset them at KC in 2007.

Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

by desibroncofan on Oct 23, 2009 12:08 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

also with Baltimore

they’re on a 3 game losing streak, coming off the bye, and hungry for a win. this will be the toughest test yet.

Philippians 4:6-7

by Tollyvolley127 on Oct 23, 2009 12:11 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow...never heard this logic before...see San Diego.....if Denver is the better team they win....Denver is the better team...

We will lose to the Colts…thats it I feel!
This team goes 15-1 or 14-2.
Nice BSHROUT!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Oct 23, 2009 5:05 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed....

I can see them being hungry for a win, but there is a reason they’re on a 3 game skid…

by Kgrone on Oct 23, 2009 8:04 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That reason is they give up big plays in the running game and passing game.

This is going to be the week to open up the playbook and ignore the dink and dunk. If the ravens keep the ball in front of them, we aren’t going to do anything on offense.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 23, 2009 8:22 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

ditto 98

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Giants showed their new defensive coordinator

was completely outmatched by Sean Peyton (NO) and Jason Garrett (DAL) ……I may be wrong but I think Josh McDaniels will do the same.

I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"

by dmitchell624 on Oct 23, 2009 4:43 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could well be right

Baltimore, New York, and Indy are the three games that concern me the most.

Pittsburgh has had difficulty all year (so far) in protecting Ben, and has made their living by 2nd half surges. Those two things will work in our favor, IMHO. Ben will end up getting knocked around like a pinball by our pass rush which will take away the 2nd half rally.

I’m willing (at least until KC posts 3-4 more wins) to believe that the KC mojo had more to do with being inside Shanahan’s head than with owning the Broncos per se. I’m inclined to believe we may see the overturning of that pattern with the McD led Broncos.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 5:30 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

giants are good

but not that good. They should and could have lost to Dallas, if Romo would not have given that game away. The Giants defense isnt near what it was last season and their running game isnt as strong as it has been in the past. To think they wont lose another game shows that you have not been paying attention to how they have been playing. (the raider game doesnt count, well because its the raiders)

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Oct 23, 2009 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have been paying attention to NYG

If you think Tom C. is gonna let his team be embarrassed like they were against NO and not respond back, then you don’t realize what kind of coach he is. I do think we could win this game, but I just think that right now NYG is very physical. We are not yet as physical as they are. I hope I am wrong on this one. they are definitely a different team without Spag.

KC could be a mojo thing due to Shanahan, but it is tough to win in their house anytime.

Baltimore will tell us where we will be for the next 4 games I have listed IMHO.

I am hoping 11-5, but wouldn’t be surprised with 13-3. either way we win AFC West, and with 13-3 maybe home field advantage (colts must lose)

by broncboy on Oct 23, 2009 10:54 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

as i said

AZ went into NY and won. NYG isnt a world beater of a team. 11 wins. . . maybe

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Oct 26, 2009 3:42 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

KC? McDaniels will not lose games he should win!!

But he may win a few he should have lost!

by Bronkfan on Oct 26, 2009 6:36 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

the Gmen just lost AGAIN…

by PolarBear14 on Oct 26, 2009 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Post B

I like the formula too. Anything that has us running the table is fine by me.

Its amazing how much changes in 6 weeks time. Initially, there were many games on the schedule I was worried about, but now my fears have been assuaged. Steelers? Ravens? Chargers? All games I had as losses, but now they feel all very winnable, especially if we keep playing on the same level. The only one that genuinely scares me is Indy, just because we have a history of being put to task by Manning.

I am surprised you pick the Eagles over us, however. Everytime I think Philly looks like a contender, Andy Reid calls 100 pass plays, and they make the Raiders suddenly look like a football team.

Its nice to survey the schedule and realize the other teams are afraid of playing us now, instead of the other way around.

by bowma101 on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

That was a weird pick for me too

I think we will drop 1-3 games. The Philadelphia pick was based on how incredibly schizophrenic they have been this year. You never know what you’re going to be facing.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 5:34 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the kids

that works for me is an Eagles fan. I asked him how jamarcus the hut could beat the eagles. This was his reply

“Hey thatws how we roll the dice lose to crapy teams then we’ll get nasty again and make the playoffs and then lose in the NFC championship game lol”.

It will be a tough game that’s for sure.

by papasteven on Oct 23, 2009 7:01 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Pittsburg game will be very interesting to say the least.

If our defense doesn’t get to banged up playing the Ravens we should walk away with a victory. Their OLine is porous for sure and they know that. Ben is very good at eating the sack when receivers are covered, just to bounce back with a big play. I believe we can handle that if we keep the pressure on because our corners and safeties are some of the best in the league. There possibly could be 8-12 sacks in this game which for Pittsburg isn’t all too uncommon and they still could be in the hunt for a win. Didn’t they have a 13 sack game last year and still won? Our offense has to keep the ball rolling as they eat up yds and score. Time of position will be a factor in this game.

Not overlooking Baltimore they are not a one dimentional team and bring a smash-mouth style of football to you. Good running, great passing and recieving and a real good defense. If we dominate this game and win decisively then people will really look at us as a very great team instead of just a very ‘good’ team. 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain’t!

by bfree2bronc on Oct 22, 2009 11:56 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

This one will be a nailbiter.

The key for our defense will be containing Flacco. Do that, and I think we can win.

A lot is being made of the fact that they’re coming off a bye week. So are we. I know that McD gave they guys the majority of this week off. I’m guessing he’s spent the entire time analyzing game film. It also wouldn’t surprise me to discover that Orton and at least one or two of the defensive unit have been doing the same thing. I tend to believe that we’ll be ready and well prepped.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 5:37 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

We will need to contain

Ray Rice also. Our D-line will have to keep Rice in check. If not it will be a long game.

Just my opinion of course

by papasteven on Oct 23, 2009 7:04 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rice is difficult to bring down once he get's his feet moving.

Treat him like we treated Cedric Benson, McFadden, Choice, LDT and the rest. Don’t let the cut up the field, contain and stuff them at the line of scrimmage.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 23, 2009 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

He reminds me of Jamal Lewis

When he was good for the Ravens- same short choppy steps in traffic helps him keep his feet moving and tough to bring down.

by AllBroncsallday on Oct 23, 2009 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said 8-8...

I am surrounded by SeaHack fans where I work and in the preseason I guessed we’d prolly finish around .500, but best case scenario we’d be 11-5. I based this prediction on the fact that we had most of our core O back, a new D scheme and players to go with it, and a coach that help mold one of the most exciting Offenses in the History of the NFL.

They all laughed and continually thanked the Broncos for our first round pick that would probably be in the top 10. (They’re gonna have a top 10 pick, all right! Ha!)

Now, With the way our season has gone, I will be quite disappointed if we don’t finish at least 10-6.

What a wild and weird season this has been.

by SinDonor on Oct 23, 2009 12:10 AM MDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Did you ask them recently how are the

Seahawks doing ;-) ?

I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"

by dmitchell624 on Oct 23, 2009 4:45 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh heh

Yeah, I have our respective teams’ records written on the corner of the big whiteboard in the conference room.

Suckers.

by SinDonor on Oct 23, 2009 9:06 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

You do realize

that go to 10-6 we have to lose 6 of our remaining games?

Oak, KC, KC and Was should be wins.

Balt, Pitt, and Phil have shown themselves to be vulnerable.

Ind & NY will be the toughest games left on the schedule.

I see us doing anywhere from 12-4 to 14-2, with the caveat that nothing changes between now and the end of the season for any of the teams, including ours.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 5:41 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ravens corners are turnstiles

Gaffney, Royal and Stokely will eat them alive (they’ll put a safety on Marshall). We could still lose the game though – Ray Rice is incredible

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Oct 23, 2009 7:59 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our run D ain't so bad either

How many 100 yard rushers have we allowed this season? Ray Rice shouldn’t be an issue. We need to contain Flacco and their air attack.

by SinDonor on Oct 23, 2009 9:12 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

For sure

I believe that a 12-4 record is a very realistic goal now. I’m just going to be disappointed if we don’t at least hit 10-6.

It’s a good feeling to have that much confidence in your team. It’s like 97-98 all over again.

by SinDonor on Oct 23, 2009 9:10 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

there's a lot of parallels with the 98 team in terms of results

so far in 09, we’ve beaten 5 of the same teams that the Broncos beat in 98; and we have 7 more games against teams that we played in that year.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 9:21 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh....

Good call. I hope the final result is the same.

by SinDonor on Oct 23, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

you and me both :D

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know...

As much as I hate to admit this, I don’t think we should so quickly discount Oakland and KC. I think KC at Arrowhead is always a tough game, regardless of Shanahan/Phillips/Reeves. They have a great home field, and are very passionate about the Broncos/Cheifs rivalry. It just seems like the Cheifs always play over their heads when hosting us at Arrowhead.

As far as Oakland goes, my grandfather had an expression: “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once and a while.” This could be interpreted as: “Even a Jamarcus-the-Hutt finds a Zach Miller over the middle every once and a while.” Plus, their D also seems to play us tougher the 2nd time each season.

That said, I think we take the Raiders (but it will be much closer than we expect) and could very well lose 1 to the Chiefs. We drop to the Colts, and maybe the Giants, but win the rest.

Which, of course, gets us back to 13-3!!

by attackparrot on Oct 23, 2009 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

ROFL

I was all set for an 11-5 prediction and you got us back to 13-3. That’s great.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 10:50 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are looking at this all wrong.

Maybe Jamarcus is the acorn and Ayers is the Blind Squirrel. I know Ayers is doing much better, maybe he gets his first sack.

by Bronkfan on Oct 26, 2009 6:46 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post BShrout

I always look forward to your insightful thoughts on the Broncos and the season. When I see your name next to a post it is required reading for me. Thank you for all your hard work. You bring up some very interseting points. I thought 9-7 for this season but as it moves along and I see the weakness of the other teams I can see 12-4 or 14-2. Wouldn’t that just get the NFLTA talking head’s panties in a twist.

And my “highly rec’d of course” goes on this one as well

by papasteven on Oct 23, 2009 7:11 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

awww, thanks for the kind words papa

I almost went with my formula’s prediction that we would go 16-0, but I figured that was probably pushing the envelope just a tad. LOL

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 7:34 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post Bshrout!!

I’d like to see another one in a couple of weeks and here’s why:

How good are the giants really? they haven’t beaten anyone significant: barely got by faders 1.1 (the redskins), beat an inconsistent cowboys team by 2, crushed KC and oakland and the bucs, all bottom feeder teams in the nfl. they were exposed by the saints so i’d wait a few weeks to see if they saints are just THAT good or if the giants are overrated.

same goes for the phillies. they’ve beaten KC, carolina, and tampa bay while losing to new orleans (and giving up the same number of points as the giants, 48)

the ravens have a better proven team but they’re beginning to look old. ray lewis doesn’t have the same burst he used to and i just don’t trust that their wideouts can beat our coverage. if they can’t do that, theres no flacco. we just HAVE to stop ray rice.

the colts are our enigma so i may have to give you that one. but once again that was all under shanny and under dungy. we have a new coach and they have a new coach.
and who have the colts beat? barely beat the jags (by 2), barely beat miami, crushed arizona (who i don’t think is very good, they have no pass rush and poor coverage and thus were crushed by manning), seattle, and tennessee.

and finally the defending superbowl champions the pittsburgh steelers. i want to wait and see how having troy polamalu back changes the team. he to the steelers is like bdawk is to us and we all saw what happened when bdawk went down for a quarter.

by march20 on Oct 23, 2009 8:02 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

good points

and don’t forget, Dallas had to take KC to overtime to get the win.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 8:03 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bdawk went down...

at the tail end of a drive where they marched on us (all while BDawk was playing). Then they marched on us exactly the same way because Royal took the kickoff back and our D had to go right back out there.

Our D was solid for the remainder of the half. Bdawk was out for a quarter and a half. “We all saw” it, but I’m not sure how many of us were letting Tirico’s (et al.) incessant squaking about the injury every time the Bolts had a gain of 3+ cloud our judgement. This isn’t the first time I’ve seen this mentioned on MHR.

Explain to me what exactly happened, in your judgement, after Bdawk left for the half.

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

i can't say for sure until i watch the game again

but it just didn’t seem like we were attacking as much, the cbs were hesitant to come in on tackles because they don’t trust mcbath as much as they do dawkins back in coverage and while mcbath made some excellent tackles, it didn’t have the nastiness that bdawk brought to the field. after a while we did settle down though, the defense is definately still good without him, but it has a different feel

by march20 on Oct 23, 2009 2:00 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at the BDawk injury

Before BDawk went out, San Diego had 6 runs for 4 yards and 4 passes for 76 yards.

While he was out, San Diego amassed 47 yards on 9 runs and 80 yards 6 passes (there was also a pass play that ended in a sack of -7).

The biggest difference seems to be that the Chargers didn’t believe that BDawk’s sub could come up in run support the same way.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's kind of funny...

YPP down, YPR up. Shows how key his run support is to our D, I guess.

March that supports your argument that the corners were hesitant to come in on run support. I stand corrected.

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 2:57 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm taking my daughter to the Eagles game...

so I would really like the real no. 5 show up that game. I’ll have my Broncos Dawkins jersey on so a win there would really make her birthday.

Who am I kidding…Orange Crush tastes good!

by precisiontint on Oct 23, 2009 8:22 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking 9-7

But now the Broncos and MHR have me sold on 13-3. After reading some of the other sites this off season, I was almost going to jump off a cliff. Then I found MHR. Thanks guys!

Who filled my beer mug with Kool-Aid?

by Beer30Bronco on Oct 23, 2009 11:38 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

We're glad you're here B30B

thanks for jumping into the conversation

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 4:46 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

15-1 is not a stretch

I tend to agree with most people that Indy is probably a loss, because Peyton Manning is on fire and they just play so well at home.

But I’d probably favor Denver in every other remaining game. Our defense is the biggest reason for that.

As others have said, Baltimore is struggling mightily on defense. They just aren’t anywhere near what they used to be in that arena. The Broncos ought to be able to put up enough points to outscore what Flacco and company can get against the Denver D.

Pittsburgh has been really unpredictable this year, but I like the Broncos at home for that one. In Pittsburgh, I might make it a loss, but not here. Again, I don’t see our D giving up more than we can score at home.

Washington, Oakland, KC twice – obviously these are all opportunities for letdowns. I just don’t see this team falling prey to that. Those are games that the “country club” atmosphere would lose ya. But that atmosphere is gone from Dove Valley.

San Diego at home – it’ll be a tough one, but this time the Bolts will have to deal with the opposing crowd, and I think that tips it in Denver’s favor.

At Philly – it’s always a tough place to play, but that team is having monumental problems right now. I see loads of talent and complete disarray. That’s why a team in a similar situation – the Raiders – was able to beat them. I think we win that one on coaching alone.

That leaves the Giants, who I think are probably the most overrated team in the NFL right now, especially on defense. This is not the same defense that put Eli in position to win the Super Bowl a couple years ago. They have been lit up by a few teams now. The same Dallas team that lost to Denver and almost lost to KC put up 30-some points on them. And New Orleans had their way. I think Denver scores a lot of points on the Giants, and I think Eli doesn’t even come close to countering. That could very well be a blowout win for Denver, which will go very nicely with post-turkey pecan pie. ;-)

None of these are guarantees, but barring significant injuries (yes, a huge assumption), that’s how I’d bet on each game going in. This defense, in my opinion, has already shown they can shut down any offense this side of the Colts, the Vikes, or the Saints. That leaves the opposition trying to make Orton give a game away, and why would he start doing that now?…

by ShawnDenver on Oct 23, 2009 1:15 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

When we lose to the Colts in the regular season...

…that bodes well for the playoffs. Off the top of my head, we lost to them in the wild card games in ’03 and ’04. In one of those seasons, we were one of their few regular season losses. In ’05 we played them at the tail end (the end?) of the regular season. They were one of our three losses that year. Then we played them in the divisional round where they did some ridiculous dancing before the first kick off and we beat them like a red-headed stepchild.

That’s all off the top of my head (hey, if I’m fact-checking I’m gonna do a full blown fanpost :p). I know for a fact they did that ridiculous dance in some playoff game because they had just beat us 2-4 weeks prior and we made them pay for it.

I like all of your analysis except your attitude that our O will outscore what our D gives (I mean the connotation, obviously that’s the key to winning). That’s last year’s team mentality. As long as our offense can sustain drives (esp. late-game like they have been), regardless of whether we score that gives our D a chance to constantly adjust and just shut the other team down. Another wild assumption I’m going to put forward is that when our offense is clicking and making long drives our D comes out and just stomps all over the opposing O. This wasn’t necessarily the case last year. We’d go on epic scoring drives and then you’d be biting the nails for a)the ridiculously good field position they’d get off the kick and b)exactly how fast our d would let them score.

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops

meant to reply to your post – see below…

by ShawnDenver on Oct 23, 2009 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting stat drizz

I did not realize that was the case, thanks for sharing that tidbit and I look forward to seeing your larger post. :D

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I'll take a look back...

on Colts week.

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 7:45 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you on those points... except,

We didn’t play IND in the ’05 playoffs. Pittsburgh beat them in the divisional round. We only beat the Pats that post-season. (our most recent post-season win BTW….)

by OrangeTorpedo on Oct 26, 2009 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on all points...

Colts-Broncos would be an outstanding AFC Title Game. And hey if we go 15-1, it might be in Denver. ;-)

I was basically trying to get at what you said more eloquently at the bottom here – I have a lot of faith in our D to hold most of our remaining opponents to less than 20 points, and even 10 in some cases. That doesn’t put a whole lot of pressure on the offense to come up with a higher number. I also think the offense is only going to get better as they go. I know Orton won’t come straight out and admit it, but that finger injury and the glove were wreaking havoc with his ability to throw accurately (and yet look how well he did even then). The last couple of games, he’s made throws that have to scare our opposition – not only can our D shut you down, but we can make big plays downfield on offense.

by ShawnDenver on Oct 23, 2009 4:38 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah the TD pass

to Sheff was a thing of beauty in my opinion. With the glove on he doesn’t make that throw

by papasteven on Oct 23, 2009 4:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

good points, thanks for sharing them

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 4:48 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

heh a couple of those early season passes looked straight outta game film on Jamarcus the hut…

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

by Drizzt396 on Oct 23, 2009 7:46 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice logic BShrout. In last springs rather goofy La La Land Prediction post I Had us Losing at San Diego..

and then to Indy and New York. Now I have to figure out how we avoid 14-2 and make it to 13-3. Nice predicament to be in.

I’d think that either the Ravens or Steelers or Philly could provide that third loss, but the way our team is playing we will need to have an off-day to get that third loss.

I think I’ll make a slight change to my Battle-Cry. Until further notice it will go like this.

.
Or Better!! Take that you doubters!!

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Oct 23, 2009 6:24 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

love the battle cry, Mike

and thanks to you and zappa for providing the original 13-3 cry.

Just a gut feeling, but I see us going with that.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 23, 2009 7:03 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zappa is back, but is part of the staff, can't act foolish like us, even though I think he wants to.

13-3 Baby! !

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Oct 24, 2009 6:59 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

God bless you, Mike

I agree with you overall. I admit, however, that prior to the season, you were a tad bit optimistic. Now I say that a 13-3 record could very well be right on.

The only reason why the Colts could give us the most problems, is because if there is 1 QB in the league that can adjust mid-game, it’s Peyton M. The middle of the field, vacated by our ILBs in blitz packages is scary and I know that man sees it. He can and will try to Dallas Clark our behinds until we make an adjustment.

The Giants are still good with a lot of depth, but the Saints made them look like a wild-card team last Sunday. The Eagles are inconsistent, so we’ll have to wait ’till gameday to find out which version of their team should show up.

Baltimore is less of a threat to us than Pittsburgh because they have more holes on D ever since Rex Ryan took some of his guys to the Jets.

I would’ve choked on my own words a month ago, but I dare say the Chiefs are capable of taking one from us this year. (Especially in of all places, Arrowhead stadium.) According to Dude, they’re 1st in turnovers / game, 12th in average starting field position, and 6th in time of possession.

Because of our coaches, we should not slip up against division opponents, but if there is one that is hungry, with a chip on their shoulder, and on the brink, it’s the Chiefs.

by Horsepower on Oct 23, 2009 10:35 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Horsepower, I agree that as of now Peyton and Indy will be 'the' test..

but I also think New York will be a test. I also think the Ravens are a better team than their last couple games. Funny us Broncos!! Last year the MSM thought us great and we failed, this year they call us losers….and….well, you know what I think

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Oct 24, 2009 7:06 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Breakdown BShrout

I would swap Pittsburgh with Philadelphia though. Lose to the Steelers but win against the Eagles.

Troy cleans up the garbage that the Steelers can’t seem to take out on their own. He could punish Kyle with 1 or 2 legitimate INTs or fumble recoveries, as long as he is 99% his old self. We’ll have to wait and see.

Good reasoning on all of your estimates, rec’d.

by Horsepower on Oct 23, 2009 10:58 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing left to say

13-3 Baby!

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Oct 23, 2009 11:17 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

my 2 cents

@ balt toss-up but i am thinking a loss because they have to have it pitt win cant protect big ben @ wash win but close than everyones thinks SD win because we can pressre rivers nyg win thanksing we have playing in it 2 years they have not @kc loss arrowhead but in all realeity if we can get21 points we win cause the chifes cant score @ indy loss but a preview of the afe champ game unless the refs get in the way durind our 2 round pitt game oak win cant score enrough @ philly win they cany run bdawk knows everything about the eales kc close win they will plad hard and good but lose we get a bye 2 round pitt we win that barly because pitt does play good at denvn @indy manning hates the 3-4 we slow him down learn from our mistakes and win by a fg super bowl minn a high scroing affier but fave thows a late pick den 27 minn 24

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule

by j-man on Oct 24, 2009 4:00 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

you could well be right

and i love your final line about the super bowl

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 24, 2009 5:38 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks b shrout

grest post

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule

by j-man on Oct 24, 2009 6:05 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I had us losing to NE and SD...

In my April predictions, so I’ve had to revise my prognostication of 10-6 upwards….

It’s a great feeling!

I believe that the next 2 games are really good barometer for post season success. If we go 2-0 in those games, I’d consider us completely capable of WINNING the Super Bowl.

IND at Indy is going to be a chore, but realistically, home field for the AFC championship game could hinge on that games outcome.

Go BRONCOS!!!

A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!! (April 2009 prediction)

Revised to 12-4 due to reality!

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

by Broncotodd on Oct 25, 2009 8:30 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow BShrout....

I literally JUST made a post that had the same predictions, game for game. I feel like I’ve robbed you. Although, in fairness, I had no formula, just the previous W/L records, and a projected W/L for each team up until the week they play us.

I feel dirty, but still so clean. Ahh hell, your post is great!

John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)

by Joe Medina on Oct 26, 2009 1:28 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

LOL, just a sign that great minds think alike

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 26, 2009 9:11 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs


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