Try to Not Laugh (The Formula Flounders)

by BShrout on Oct 27, 2009 11:57 PM MDT Comment 20 comments

Bigger sigh. The downward spiral continues. After consecutive 8-6 records, to go 7-6 is very disappointing. What I'm finding interesting about the way this is working out is that I would have expected the season to start with lower figures and gradually improve slightly as the leading teams begin to solidly advance while the lower tier teams begin to play for next year. Instead, the formula started strong but has steadily tailed off.

Looking back at Week 7: San Diego, Green Bay, New England and Indianapolis were gimmes. Two turnovers returned for TDs was the difference in Minnesota-Pittsburgh. Not really sure why San Francisco has imploded the last two weeks. Buffalo continues to draw opponents who are determined to not score. The Jets took out their frustrations on Oakland. Atlanta is starting to look like a flash in the pan. New Orleans and Chicago's starting quarterbacks both threw 1 TD and 3 picks, but ended up with very different results. The Giants are very suddenly looking overrated. The Good Philly/Bad Philly show continues -- you never know which team will show up from week to week.

On a lighter note, my "side-note" disclaimer on my Week 7 predictions accurately predicted 4 of the games that the formula misfired on. Against the formula, I suggested that I could see Pittsburgh, Houston, Buffalo and Cincinnati winning. But since this series is designed to test the use of cold hard statistics as predictors of performance, I deferred (and will continue to defer) to the formula.

So, on to Week 8 Predictions:

Bye: Cin, KC, Pit, TB, Was, NE

Sea 13 @ Dal 29
SL 0 @ Det 13
Mia 17 @ NYJ 28
NYG 30 @ Phi 31
SF 14 @ Ind 42
Den 42 @ Bal 19
Hou 26 @ Buf 17
Cle 6 @ Chi 24
Jax 29 @ Ten 0
Oak 7 @ SD 27
Min 35 @ GB 32
Car 12 @ Ari 28
Atl 26 @ NO 47

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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I think

Some teams don’t vary their gameplan which can make them easier to scheme as the season progresses. As well as some get hit by the injuries. Of course if it were easy your be a millionaire :)

by BroncoInExile on Oct 28, 2009 1:50 AM MDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

OMG

I can’t believe I will be rooting for Cleveland this week.
No, No, No…I can…not….root for…the Faders…….I can…not…..no……..Eecchhh…..cooties…

Make those miracles happen - Jon Keyworth

by IgorBStrange on Oct 28, 2009 3:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Just do like I do

and ignore it. :) Maybe they’ll both lose. Look on the bright side — last week was worse. You had San Diego playing Kansas City. Ugh. I don’t even think my TV would have allowed me to turn that one on if I’d tried.

by BroncosBassist on Oct 28, 2009 5:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

With the browns/raiders, I wouldn't be shocked if they both lost.......

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 28, 2009 6:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

42-19 baby!

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Oct 28, 2009 7:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

you go bud!!!

yay you. :D

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 9:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

hard to argue with any of your calls

I do think SF will put up more than 14 with Alex Smith at QB, and I don’t see the Broncos at Baltimore ending with a 23 point difference (but if it is, it will be Denver on top).

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Oct 28, 2009 8:25 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm putting too much stock in the points

Those are simply generated by a very arbitrary formula.

I am thinking about tweaking the formula at mid-season, to include turnovers and penalties, but I haven’t decided if I really want to do that yet.

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does Indy play anybody this season besides us?

I can’t believe how limp their schedule has been and I hope the 49s go in there put it to them. The 8ers need a win desparately. The rest I can live with except I don’t think we will win a blow-out in their home field. Don’t get me wrong though, I’ll take it if it happens, but I’m just saying B…seems a bit of a stretch.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 28, 2009 8:42 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I was surprised at what the formula generated for Den-Balt

but its the way it fell using W/L (in multiple settings), Points For/Against and Streak.

What it suggests to me is that based on what our opponents have been allowing point-wise each week, that we are leaving a lot of points on the field.

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

They have

NE, Baltimore, the Jets and the Broncos coming up in the 2nd half of the season. And they have the 4-3 Texans twice.

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

As selfish as it sounds, I hope that Indy wins out and goes 15-1 (losing to the broncos).

This would give them home field advantage. If the game is in Indy, then I can go to it for the AFC championship. That would be awesome. It will be a bummer if the game isn’t in Denver, but if it is in Indy………I won’t be mad.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 28, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would mean I will have gone to three games. Cincy, Indy and Indy. Good times.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 28, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

totally cool

though I must admit that you’ve fostered feelings of jealousy. :D

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's understandable. haha.

I am very torn inside, though. I want the broncos to have home field advantage, but I want to see a playoff game, as well.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Oct 28, 2009 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Using the stats to determine outcome

is great. It does neglect the area of emotion though. Used correctly that can create a drive in a team to get beyond what the stats say should happen. So based on that I think the following teams win in spite of what the stats say should happen. Ten, NYG, and Buf. The rest is as it should be.

by bchiper on Oct 28, 2009 8:56 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

the formula ignores emotion; it also ignores the impact of injuries, penalties and turnovers.

It’s been an experiment in the question: Can the end results to date be used as a predictor of future performance?

So far, the results are mixed.

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 9:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The results may be mixed

at the moment, but once you’ve the whole season under your experiment you’ll know how good it is at predicting outcomes. I for one look forward to your findings.

I did think about the injury part of the equation, but realistically shouldn’t the turnovers and penalties be accounted for in the stats?

by bchiper on Oct 28, 2009 9:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I too think it's worthwhile endeavor

You could be pioneering a new trend my friend! =)

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Oct 28, 2009 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mentioned above

that I’m seriously thinking about tweaking the formula to include penalties and turnovers. Just have to make sure I have an easy place to find the info each week (my laziness kicks in sometimes. ;-p)

by BShrout on Oct 28, 2009 12:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs