Well, up one week, down the next, then up again! Ha! I finished 3-1 last week. I ended up picking an underdog at the last minute as I saw something in looking back over the Jacksonville Jaguar games this year and I saw enough to convince me they were a much better team than the Titans. I was right and if I switch picks like that in the future...win or lose, I'll include them in my weekly totals.

Obviously, I blew it by calling the Jets. The result of that game certainly propelled the Saints to the #1 spot in my Quarterly Power Rankings. Of course, the Denver Broncos are money in any underdog pick so far this year and I also went with 50% of Yahoo'ers with the Patriots for that big win over the Ravens. The linchpin of success for me came down to my last second gut instinct to go with the Jaguars. Thanks to that move, I ended with a respectable winning record for Week 4.

Now, onto WEEK 5!

Last Week: 3-1
Overall Record: 10-8

*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website.  If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 30-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 41% to 59% would be a low risk pick.

High Risk Upset Picks:

Denver Broncos over New England Patriots

Here we go again, the Broncos are undefeated going up against a team with one loss and continue to be heavy underdogs. Only a quarter of Yahoo'ers picked the Broncos here. Though I think the Patriots are head and shoulders above Dallas in terms of strength. This is going to be a tough football game and for me, the only key to winning is to keep Tom Brady frustrated and under durress. We do that, we'll win this game close. I'm going to say, Broncos 17, Patriots 13.

Cleveland Browns over Buffalo Bills

I wasn't sure if I should take the Texans over the Cardinals or the Browns over the Bills. I decided to go with the less risky pick(in my mind). The Browns played tough against Cincinnati, while the Bills just got plain blasted. I have a bad feeling about this pick, but I will stick with it. I really, really wanted to take the Texans, but they are as inconsistent as the Cardinals and it turns out to be too big of a risk for me to chance this week. Browns 16, Bills 10.

Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Texans over Cardinals
Washington over Carolina
Seattle over Jacksonville
Miami over New York Jets

Medium Risk Upset Picks:

None

Once again, Yahoo'ers seem to think things are just that simple. Only one toss up game. This is getting annoying. Baaabaaaabaaaaaaahhh

Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Not a one.

Low Risk Upset Picks:

Atlanta Falcons over San Francisco 49ers

I am banking on a good Falcons team going up against a Crabtree distracted 49er team. The 49ers simply do not have the talent to be distracted during the week by some "me-first" guy. They will pay the price and head into their Bye week 3-2 after losing to a pretty solid contender.  I still think the 49ers win the otherwise terrible NFC West division.

Ok, so you know I really wanted to take the Texans this week. I hope I don't regret it, but I went with the Cards. I also want to take the Dolphins, but every time I consider it I think back to that laughable performance against the Colts and pick the other team. As a side note, I also saw(for the first time ever) a team get picked 99% to 1%. I've seen 98-2, 97-3 and so on, but this is game was the closest to 100% I have ever seen on Yahoo. It's a side note, because its the Oakland Raiders garnering 1% of the vote compared to 99% for the Giants. HA!

GO BRONCOS!