To Throw or Not To Throw, That is ONE of the Questions (Revised)

by Brian Shrout on Nov 11, 2009 2:56 AM MST

    I became fascinated over the last couple of days by the repeated calls for Denver to start throwing the ball deep. I've seen persuasive arguments both for and against emphasizing long throws in our offense.

    The on-going discussion piqued my curiosity to the point that I decided to take a look to see what the tendency in the NFL is, when it comes to throwing the long ball.

    For the sake of this study, I defined "long" as a pass which was thrown for 21 or more yards. I looked at the following statistics for each of the 32 starting quarterbacks: Attempts, Completions, Yards, Touchdowns, and Interceptions. After the jump, we'll take a look at the data.

I looked to see what was the most, fewest and average of each of the categories.

Category	Most	Fewest	Average
Attempts	78	11	24.4
Completions	36	1	7.9
Yards	900	54	264.2
Touchdowns	6	0	2.5
Interceptions	6	0	2.9

When we look at how Denver stands in relationship to the rest of the league when it comes to throwing the long ball, we find that:

1)In terms of attempts, we are slightly below average -- 21 attempts vs an average of 24.4.

2)In terms of completions, we are right at the average -- 8 completions vs a 7.9 average.

3)In terms of yards, we are slightly above average -- 276 vs 264.2.

4)In terms of touchdowns, we are right at the average -- 2 vs 2.5

5)In terms of interceptions, we are below the average -- 1 vs 2.9.

Whether we agree or disagree with the decisions being made by McDaniels and Orton in regards to throwing the long ball, we can see that the results of our plays put us in the middle of the pack with the notable exception touchdowns. The most glaring issue, then, may lie more in the realm of finishing off drives with touchdowns, rather than field goals, punts, or turnovers.

I've laid out each quarterback's stats for the five areas in the table below.

Name	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT	Name	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT
Brady (NE)	24	6	221	4	2	Romo (Dal)	78	36	900	6	3
Sanchez (NYJ)	19	7	245	2	2	McNabb (Phi)	14	6	276	5	0
Edwards (Buf)	19	5	174	2	3	E Manning (NYG	37	15	499	5	3
Henne (Mia)	16	2	80	1	1	Campbell (Was)	16	3	139	2	3
Palmer (Cin)	20	4	196	0	2	Favre (Min)	29	11	389	5	0
Roethlisberger (Pit)	23	12	439	4	3	Cutler (Chi)	26	9	301	2	4
Flacco (Bal)	27	9	281	5	1	Rodgers (GB)	34	11	420	4	0
Anderson (Cle)	18	4	126	0	5	Stafford (Det)	20	3	102	1	1
P Manning (Ind)	38	10	339	5	1	Brees	32	19	615	6	3
Schaub (Hou)	25	11	434	5	3	Ryan (Atl)	19	6	197	2	3
Garrard (Jax)	30	11	321	0	0	Delhomme (Car)	22	6	207	1	4
Collins (Ten)	16	1	57	0	2	Johnson (TB)	11	4	128	1	1
Orton (Den)	21	8	276	2	1	Warner (Ari)	15	4	116	1	3
Rivers (SD)	33	12	474	1	0	Hill (SF)	24	6	132	3	1
Russell (Oak)	31	2	85	1	6	Hasselbeck (Sea)	12	3	93	2	1
Cassel (KC)	18	2	54	1	2	Bulger (SL)	13	4	139	0	1

I leave it up to all of you to make any further observations regarding the data. I have simply tried to described what has happened in the first nine weeks of the season, without attempting to predict or project what these figures might mean for the rest of the season.

***********************************

A few, further observations, added after the original post:

eams that have thrown the deep ball 30+ times:
1)8 teams
2)42-23 combined record
3)5.25-2.75 average record
4)3 Division Leaders (Dallas, New Orleans, Indianapolis)

Teams that have thrown the deep ball 20-29 times:
1)11 teams
2)51-38 combined record
3)4.6-3.4 average record
4)4 Division Leaders (New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota)

Teams that have thrown the deep ball < 20 times
1)13 teams
2)36-68 combined record
3)2.7-5.3 average record
4)1 Division Leader (Arizona)

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

quick question

Do these statistics bear out the ball being in the air for 20 yards or more? Or do these include, for example, an 8 yard out pattern with a 12 yard gain after catch resulting in a 20 yard reception?

by jpage78 on Nov 11, 2009 5:05 AM MST reply actions

Exactly what I was thinking

It may just be me, but I noticed that both Pitt and Baltimore were playing very close coverage with the safeties. They were attempting to take away our bread and butter, the shallow pass. My thinking is that if we want them to respect the deep ball and not just clog the middle, then we need to at least throw the deep ball once in a while.

by Broncanatic on Nov 11, 2009 7:43 AM MST reply actions

What did you not understand?

The stats show that we ARE throwing the deep ball.

by Endzone on Nov 11, 2009 9:56 AM MST up reply actions

The stats reflect throws that traveled at least 21 yards before reaching the receiver.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
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by Brian Shrout on Nov 11, 2009 9:07 AM MST reply actions

thanks!

Im putting together my own analysis and that actually helps. Well researched again BShrout :) I will most definitely credit you when I post

by jpage78 on Nov 11, 2009 12:05 PM MST up reply actions

Very interesting BShrout

I was starting to do my own research on this topic and Blam here you put it out there for me…….marvelous and rec’d

So if your throwing the long ball you need a QB like Flacco, P Manning, Rodgers, McNabb or Favre. They all have good TD to Int ratios. Orton doesn’t have the TD stats and I think that’s what everyone wants, deep passes for TD’s.

by bchiper on Nov 11, 2009 11:15 AM MST reply actions

I have watched every single game this season

I guess the problem is 21 yards is not a deep ball! Because defenses are not respecting it at all, period! Pitt just kept the safeties in and shut down the middle in the second half. Did you happen to notice how we did after they made that adjustment? Even when they knew we were going to pass they still never played the safeties deep. I also noticed, not one time did our wide receivers go past the safeties on any route that I could see. We played 1/2 the field and that is exactly the kind of thing that will be picked up by defenses.

by Broncanatic on Nov 11, 2009 11:33 AM MST reply actions

The reason is that Orton couldn't stay on his feet long enough for his receivers to get downfield.

If the offensive line showed they could hold their blocks, McD would have called for longer routes.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by Troy Hufford on Nov 11, 2009 11:45 AM MST up reply actions

this is becoming a very circular argument....

….the reason Orton couldn’t throw the long ball is because the Steelers safeties didn’t fear the long ball so they clogged the middle and were blitzing pretty regularly by the end.

Of course, this all boils down to a lack of any serious running threat, which boils down to returning to a blocking scheme that this line is built for. That’s just me.

by jpage78 on Nov 11, 2009 12:01 PM MST up reply actions

Agreed. It is very circular.

I think we did fine picking up the blitz, for the most part, but I did not like how easily the steeler defenders got off their blocks.

I agree about the running game needing the ZB scheme. The running game would bring down the safeties and make the dline and LB slow down to respect the run and open up some passing lanes. It all goes hand in hand. I definitely agree with you jpage.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by Troy Hufford on Nov 11, 2009 12:19 PM MST up reply actions

Very true jpage

I totally agree that these things all go hand in hand. Along the same line is if you can’t pass deep or run the ball then you become one dimensional and very easy to defend.

by Broncanatic on Nov 11, 2009 2:28 PM MST up reply actions

zone blocking

is what the line is built for. The interior of the line especially (Wiegman and Hamilton) and while I don’t think it will solve all the line’s blocking problems, I think it will help us gain a “bit” more yardage than what we’ve done the last 3 weeks.

My concern right now is the Broncos not adapting to what the Steelers were doing on defense. I think there’s only so many tackles Marshall can break before he gets injured and that worries me greatly.

by jpage78 on Nov 11, 2009 2:55 PM MST up reply actions

Its really simple, and my post and SWOT analysis is what this is about...

With out an effective run game, or the THREAT of the run game, you become one dimensional.
You cant have a good run game with out an effective O line.
You cant threaten with the pass if you cant run the ball.
If Denver finds a run game, we find our pass game, we find the end zone and we win games.
The problem is not the weapons, it is the protection or scheme FOR the weapons.
McD needs to put players in position to play well….he has done this everywhere excpet the O line and the RB;s…which is the MOST crucial part of his Offensive Scheme.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Nov 11, 2009 6:00 PM MST up reply actions