It's a 3 game season

by PDXTai on Nov 12, 2009 10:26 PM MST

Looking ahead at the schedule and some of the advanced stat sites I believe the success of our regular season hinges on the next three games: Redskins, Chargers and the Giants. Go 3-0 and we have a bye in the first round. 0-3 and we'll be watching the playoffs at home. Something in-between is most likely with the Charger game being the most important.

First, a quick look at our remaining schedule with expected win percentages from nfl-forecast.com:

83% @ Washington

70% San Diego

76% NY Giants

95% @ KC

40% @ Indy

95% Oakland

60% @ Philly

95% KC

Looking at the last 5 games, it's not tough to see that we have 3 gimmes and two tougher games. 60% chance of us winning @ Philly seems generous and Indy is just plain great so for this analysis, I'm going to assume we go 3-2 over these 5 games.

Now, let's take a quick look at the expected win totals for the AFC playoff contenders from coolstandings.com

13.5 Indy

11.7 New England

11.5 Pittsburgh

10.8 Cincinnati

9.8 Denver

9.7 San Diego

What this says to me is that you need 13-14 wins for the top seed (I think Indy has this sewn up). 12 wins gets you the 2 seed and a first round bye. 10-11 wins and you get a division win. 9 wins means you miss the playoffs.

So, assuming we go 3-2 over our last 5, we'll be 9-4 outside of the three games coming up. 3-0 means 12 wins and a likely first round bye. 2-1 or 1-2 should give us the division and a home playoff game. 0-3 means no playoffs.

Of course, the game with San Diego is the most critical. If we win that one, beat the doormats, but lose every other game, we'll still be 10-6 and have the tie breaker over the Chargers. They would need to go 6-1 over their other games to pass us.

Looking at these three games, I think we beat Washington and drop one of San Diego or Giants. That gives us a projected final record of 11-5 which should win us the division.

So, to sum up, I think we'll end up being a 3 or 4 seed in the playoffs unless we go 3-0 over these next three games.

Go Broncos!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

I had come to the same conclusion, but

it does make the assumption that we win the games we are supposed to win. Interesting how that confidence is still different than last year, even after 2 losses in a row..

by idahobronc on Nov 12, 2009 10:50 PM MST reply actions

Good points

but I don’t see sd finishing any bettter than 9-6 and if we beat them again we can loose a game we should win and still go to the playoffs. GO BRONCOS!!

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Nov 12, 2009 11:19 PM MST reply actions

will they tie a game?

Because Montana has no professional sports, I gotta support the land of my birth.

Socrates was once executed for 'trolling'.
^Needs explaining: don't call someone asking uncomfortable, slightly antagonistic questions trolls. In all odds they probably just want to learn. It's real easy to differentiate a 'Socratic' post from a trolling one (unless you're a resident of WCG).
^Needs further explaining: I have yet to post anything on WCG, don't worry, I'm not trying to rationalize anything I've done. I've just lurked over there and man, they are the model of post-peloponnesian war Athens.

by Drizzt396 on Nov 13, 2009 7:05 AM MST up reply actions

I'm a little more simplistic

I really like the way that the Broncos have developed this season. McDaniels has impressed me and I think the team is headed in the right direction. At the beginning of the year I would have been very, very pleased to win our division. I am still at that point. Another win over San Diego is at the center of that (obviously). Unlike many posters I will not count the two games with KC as wins. Something strange always seems to happen between KC and Denver. I certainly hope it is not in those two games but I would feel better if they were over and had two wins in the pocket (yes, KC is dog ugly but ugly dogs still bite).

by Hank44 on Nov 13, 2009 5:54 AM MST reply actions

Obviously no game in the NFL is a guaranteed win.

I was just trying to figure out the likely outcomes. If we drop one of the KC games, we might be able to make up for it by beating the Eagles. We might also stand a good chance against Indy if they have the #1 seed locked up and are playing Sorgi by the time we roll into town.

by PDXTai on Nov 13, 2009 7:45 AM MST up reply actions

ITS A ONE GAME SEASON EVERY WEEK

we have to when the next one before we worry about any others.

live and die blue and orange

by jerry251 on Nov 13, 2009 9:37 AM MST reply actions

If we don't get our running game off the "Turtle" track we won't win many games that are left.

That is just the honest truth. Teams will stack against our ‘dink and dunk’ style and our troubles will continue. I am not sure why McD is being bull headed (unless Hillis’ concussion is worser than first thought) that he won’t use him to fire up this dismal running attack. Moreno seems to become more and more confused at the game plan and he just isn’t making the cuts right.

by bfree2bronc on Nov 13, 2009 10:52 AM MST reply actions