Perspective on: The Red Zone Myth (A Teacher's Perspective)
by Brian Shrout on Nov 14, 2009 1:54 AM MST
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PrintI was skimming a number of news sites over the last couple of days (I know, I know, I should be assigned detention for this), and I found a number of startling comments about how Denver has been struggling in the Red Zone, about how we get to the Red Zone and choke, etc., etc. Of particular interest to me were some claims that Orton has not performed well in the Red Zone this year.
I found myself wondering if this were true, or whether it was simply more misinformation being perpetuated by people who do not want to credit Denver with having improved this year. My curiosity led me to do a bit of research into just how we have fared in the Red Zone this year.
The Method
What I chose to do was to look at our various drives to see if and when we moved into the Red Zone. The Red Zone for the purposes of this particular research is defined as the 20 yard line down to the goal line in the opponent's half of the field. To qualify as a "Red Zone" possession, the offense has to have had at least one play whose snap took place in the Red Zone. I decided to compare our performance in the Red Zone to those of Indianapolis and New Orleans, since they have set the bar as the two currently undefeated teams.
The Data
The table below reflects the data for Denver, Indianapolis and New Orleans.
| Denver | Indianapolis | New Orleans | |
| Drives | 90 | 84 | 99 |
| Red Zone | 21 | 29 | 41 |
| Red Zone % | 23.3 | 34.5 | 41.0 |
| Red Zone Scores | 18 | 25 | 36 |
| RZ Score % | 85.7 | 86.2 | 87.8 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 16 | 25 |
| TD % | 47.6 | 55.1 | 60.9 |
| Field Goals | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| FG % | 38.0 | 31.0 | |
| Other Result | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Other % | 14.2 | 13.7 | 12.1 |
Drives = the number of offensive possessions each team has had. Notice that these numbers are very similar.
Red Zone = the number of drives which included snaps between the opponents 20 and their goal line.
Red Zone % = the percentage of our drives that included trips into the Red Zone.
Red Zone Scores = the number of times we scored on a drive that included a Red Zone trip.
Red Zone % = the percentage of our Red Zone possessions in which we scored.
Touchdowns = the number of Red Zone Touchdowns that we scored.
TD % = the percentage of Red Zone scores that were touchdowns.
Field Goals = the number of Red Zone Field Goals that we scored.
FG % = the percentage of Red Zone scores that were field goals.
Other Result = includes things like turnovers, missed or blocked field goals, turnover on downs, kneeling at the end of a half or game.
Other % = the percentage of times in the Red Zone in which we did not score.
The table above shows us a number of things:
(1)The number of drives we had appears to be fairly average.
(2)We had fewer Red Zone possessions than either of the other teams.
(3)By virtue of fewer RZ possessions, we had fewer RZ scores.
(4)Our RZ scoring percentage was comparable to the other two teams (0.5% behind Ind, 2.1% behind NO).
(5)Our RZ TD/INT percentages were weighted more towards FGs than the other two teams.
What leapt out at me as I looked at this data, was the fact that though we've had fewer RZ possessions, our ability to score once we are in the RZ appears to be comparable to the two league leaders. What this suggests to me is that our problem is less about being able to score when we are in the RZ than it is about our inability to sustain drives long enough to get into the Red Zone.
Just something to think about.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Great post mate....
3 and outs have been a problem because of the ineffectiveness picking up yards with the run game. We need to turn this round in a hurry!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
You can't get detention posting at 3 AM EST.
lol. Great post BS.
I’d say that another issue is our field position. We haven’t been doing very well in that category. I’m sure the Dude will address that with the stats that don’t lie. Boydy is right on point with the third down conversions, as well. I think, more than anything, we need to keep converting third downs and get better field position and we will definitely see more Red zone trips.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Shrout
Another excellent analysis. And you are correct. If you go back to the article that Emmett and I wrote about Orton, notice the chart on QB rating between the 50 yard line and the red zone. His rating is 65 and his completion percentage is 56%. So both you are Boydy are correct.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
It would be interesting to add average field position to your stats
That is the role of special teams in the game. Aside from the big game with SD, the Broncos haven’t gottten much out of returns. I’d rather see consistent + yards on returns than the occasional big return – consisitent position influences how the whole game gets played.
And punting is part of offensive team field position, too.
Our problem has been not getting there to score as evidenced in the last 2 games.
Against Pittsburg we had what? 10 drives and only once in the redzone? We have to do a better job of sustaining drives and scoring points, that’s all there is to it. Our defense can only be asked to do so much, it’s our offense that’s needs a kick in the butt. Thanks B for the post.
shart yardage problems
I accept the analysis but — with all due respect — I do see a problem.
Our problems have appeared in short yardage situations, which is not necessarily reflected in red zone statistics. It’s a simple problem to describe — we’re physically overmatched in the interior-OL.
It’s not simply whether we’re effective on offense — which seems to be indicated but I’m not clear on how to interpret the statistics — but whether we’re capable holding our own on the line of scrimmage. My recollections may be anecdotal but I distinctly recall a number of situations where our OL crumbled under pressure.
There are a number of factors that have led to the current situation but the one that we can change is personnel. We’re due for an infusion of talent in the Interior-OL. Our draft selections over the course of the last two drafts have indicated that the coaching staff/GM agree. Unfortunately, Lichtensteiger didn’t work out (and was partially a mis-fit for our present needs), and Olsen has yet to sufficiently develop. We also missed on Schlueter, who was more of a ZB project.
Last year’s success (measured somewhat misleadingly by sacks given up) created a false impression about our OL situation. I’m not arguing that Clady, Harris and Kuper aren’t good, but our OL as a whole wasn’t an asset we could just sit on (shades of Cutler here). We needed to add personnel in order to develop our future starters and keep our production at a high level. And ‘we’ knew this.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Nov 14, 2009 4:21 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
rec'd & a comment on Pass Protection
We do have good pass protection. However, as you point out, we are overmatched physically at the line of scrimmage. Pass protection is more about leverage and angles. Move the pass rusher to the side, disrupt their rush, etc. Run blocking is more leverage and brute strength. Move them out of the way, not just leverage their momentum. ZB scheme uses a lot of misdirection and cut blocking to work and not as much brute strength. We saw this issue in preseason as I recall. Our short-yardage run game is just not good enough. A good NFL team should be able to run the ball for 1 or 2 yards every time.
nice work as always...
"even a stopped clock is right twice a day" Yosemite Sam
by lovewatchinthegame on Nov 16, 2009 12:57 AM MST reply actions
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