Brad's NFL Picks - Week Eleven - 2009

Brad's Picks was 11-4 last week. Here's the good, bad and ugly from that:

     the good:

San Francsico 10, Bears 6 (TNF) - Bears had a chance to win the game at the end, but Jay Cutler threw an interception in the end zone.

Tennessee 41, Bills 17 - Ralph Wilson gave up on HC Dick Jauron after this one, and fired him. Betcha Ralph regrets the three year extension he gave Jauron last summer.

Miami 25, Buccaneers 23 - Bucs rookie QB Josh Freeman led his team to a TD with a minute left to take the lead 23-22, but second year QB Chad Henne led the Fins on a 77 yard drive that ended with a 25 yard FG to win the game.

Bengals 18, Pittsburgh 12 - Ouch. Brutal game. Eight field goals plus one TD on a kickoff return.

Saints 28, St. Louis 23 - Saints turned it over 3 times but managed a win.

Carolina 28, Falcons 19 - Jake Delhomme didn't turn the ball over; Matt Ryan did twice.

Minnesota 27, Lions 10 - Vikings turned it over on fumbles twice, Lions once.

Chiefs 16, Oakland 10 - Chiefs are 3-0 at Oakland lately.

San Diego 30, Eagles 23 - Eagles marched up and down the field between the 20's for 462 yards.

Arizona 31, Seahawks 20 - Cardinals got their second home win in their last five home games.

Ravens 16, Cleveland 0 (MNF) - Cleveland's no-huddle offense helped keep the game scoreless in the first half, but the Ravens scored 16 in the third quarter.

     the bad:

Undeeplis 35, Patriots 34 (SNF) - Colts trailed by 17 early in the 4th.

Jaguars 24, New York Jets 22 - Maurice Jones Drew had 123 on 24 carries against a Jets D that was pretty good until they lost DT Kris Jenkins a month ago.

     the ugly:

Washington 27, Broncos 17 - Broncos looked good in the first half, but then Kyle Orton left the game with an ankle sprain. Backup Chris Simms was worse than awful (a 7.5 QB rating).

Green Bay 17, Cowboys 7 - Cowboys got their points in garbage time. Tony Romo was sacked 5 times, while Aaron Rodgers was only sacked 4 times.

     Brad's Picks is 103-41 on the season. AFC won two and the NFC won one last week. On the season, it's AFC 21, NFC17. Home teams were 10-5 last week. On the season, it's Homers 82, Visitors 62.

     Giants and Texans had a bye last week, and that's the last of the byes for this season.

     144 games have been played, 112 to go.

     This week: the Thursday night game:

Miami (4-5) at Carolina (4-5) - If you like the run game, this is for you. Last week, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for 184 on 30 carries against the Falcons. For Miami, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 184 on 32 against the Bucs. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has now gone three straight games without a turnover, and was 15-24-0-195 last week with a TD pass. Dolphins QB Chad Henne was 17-31-1-175 and a TD pass. Henne also directed a 77 yard drive that resulted in a game winning FG with just 10 seconds left in the game. Here's the problem for the Dolphins - Ronnie Brown is out with an ankle injury, but Ricky Williams can carry the rush load. But there goes the Wildcat thing for the Fins, cause Brown was the one that ran it. Problem for the Panthers - their left tackle Jordan Gross is out for the year. If Jake Delhomme can avoid turnovers for a fourth week, without his left tackle, the Panthers can win this game because their secondary might be too good for young Chad Henne. Take Carolina.

     the 11:00 MST Sunday games:

Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8) - Browns' defense played pretty good against the Ravens' Joe Flacco and Ray Rice last week, even though the Browns' O was a no show. Lions played okay at Minnesota last week, losing by 17. Browns D is not as good as the Vikes D, and the Browns have no offense and the Lions should win this at home.

Atlanta (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4) - Giants are off off a bye, and are also off a four game losing streak. Atlanta lost a close one in New Orleans three weeks ago, then won in Washington, then lost at Carolina last Sunday. Eli Manning's heel should be better, and that should make a difference. Look for the Giants to stop their skid.

Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3) - Division game. Gotta go with Dallas at home.

San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4) - Weather should be decent at Lambeau. Niners have had a couple extra days to get ready after a sloppy win over the Bears last Thursday night. But the Packers put out some effort to beat a Cowboys team that came in red hot. I gotta take the Packers here. They gave up 38 to the Vikings, then 38 to Tampa, but just 7 in garbage time to the Cowboys.

Undeeanapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4) - I'd like to watch this game. Ravens are going to have to hope for a wild card spot to get to the playoffs, while the Colts could lose this game and feel good about it. Colts went 13-0 in 05 before losing at home to the Chargers (then lost to the Steelers in the first playoff game), and they went 9-0 in 06 before losing at Dallas (then won the Super Bowl). Anyway, it's hard to pick against Peyton Manning, and I ain't gonna do it. Taking the Colts to win another.

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (1-7) - Chiefs off a huge win at Oakland last week. That's enough fun for the time being. Take the Steelers, who lost at home to the Bengals last week, and will take it out on the hapless Chiefs. HC Todd Haley will get plenty of chances to scream at his players.

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8) - Saints turned it over three times in St. Louis and let the Rams gain over 400 yards last week, but came home with a win. Bucs played tough in Miami and almost won. I think this will be a good game, especially because the Saints are banged up on D, but I won't bet against them. Weather should be okay - maybe a few thunderstorms.

Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4) - Jags have won 4 of their last 5. Bills just fired their Head Coach, Dick Jauron. Take the Jaguars at home.

Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1) - Just when they don't need it, Vikings get all-pro CB Antoine Winfield back after missing four weeks with a foot sprain.

     the 2:05 MST game:

Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8) - Division game. Cards are 4-0 on the road this year. Rams played tough at home last week against the Saints. Cardinals will have to work for this one, and may not get it.

     the 2:15 MST games:

San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3) - Division game. Broncos haven't won a game since beating San Diego on MNF on October 19 (34-23). Chargers are 4-0 since then. Kyle Orton left the game last week just before the half, and Chris Simms was terrible. Orton says he wants to play despite the sprained ankle, but Simms and rookie Tom Brandstater are getting all the practice reps. Gotta take the Chargers.

New York Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3) - Division game. Patriots lost a tough one last week at the Undee place, and will take it out on the Jets.

Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7) - Could be a trap game for the Bengals. They won a huge game last week at Pittsburgh. That was a tough, physical game against the Champs. Bengals are now 5-0 in their division and only need a win next week at home against the Browns to sweep the division. That will happen, but what about this week? Will the Bengals come down enough to win at the Black Hole? This is a really tough call. I mean, the Eagles lost here in Week Six. But, you must know I'm just kidding. Raiders couldn't even beat the Chiefs at home last week, and physical teams like the Bengals aren't so prone to let downs.

But here's another problem - Bengals RB Cedric Benson might miss the game with an injury. But the Bengals just signed RB Larry Johnson, who was cut from the Chiefs for bad behavor. Johnson hasn't been great this year, but he's been running behind a poor O line. He may get to play some this week, and he's used to the Raiders.

Meanwhile, Raiders Coach Cable has apparently benched QB Russell in favor of QB Gradkowski. But who really cares. This game might be strange, but if you don't pick the Bengals, you'll be the only picker out there to pick the Raiders.

     the SNF game:

Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5) - Bears last played on Thursday, so they've had a couple extra days to get ready. And to get over the hangover of Jay Cutler's INT in the end zone at the end of the game that would have won the game if Cutler hadn't thrown it to a Niner. Eagles lost at San Diego last week, despite gaining over 400 yards. This is a tough call. If Cutler can hold his INT's (5 last week, 17 on the year) to a reasonable amount, the Bears could win the game. Eagles will be without Brian Westbrook again, who suffered another concussion last week. Lorenzo Booker is a good backup RB, but he's not as good as Westbrook in blocking against the blitz. Anyway, the Eagles are the better team, but the Bears could make it tough.

     the MNF game:

Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4) - Division game. Houston is off a bye after a tough loss at the Undee place. Houston could easily be 7-2 but for some bad breaks. Tennessee could maybe be 6-3 or so if they had played like they have the last three weeks, with Vince Young at QB instead of the very elderly Kerry Collins. Titans' RB Chris Johnson leads the league with 1,091 yards On pace for 1,940) and a 6.1 average, so the Texans need to watch out for him. Titans have beaten the Jags, San Francisco, and the Bills since Young took over. This is a tough call, but I guess I'll go with Houston. They are at home, and they beat the Titans in Tennessee in Week Two 34-31.