Should Orton Start If Healthy?

Hi guys! 

Let me start by saying that this is my first fanpost here at MHR.  I’ve been an avid reader for almost three years now and finally got an account around draft-time this year.  I feel that my knowledge and understanding of the game of football and what is happening both on the field and off has increased exponentially in the past couple of years, and I credit the fantastic writing in posts and the generally incredibly high level of discourse even in the comments sections here at MHR as the reason.  I want to thank the whole community here for that.  Also, as a student at a music conservatory, it can be kind of difficult to get my football-talk-fix, so you guys really save me on that one.  So, now that I finally feel like I’ve learned and retained enough to make a relevant positive contribution, here I go… 

As someone who just two weeks ago finally finished rehabbing an ankle injury that has been a nagging problem since a year ago July, I think that I’m justified in saying that ankle injuries are tricky.  My injury was actually a mild sprain (much like Kyle Orton’s) that I tried to come back from too quickly, which as a result never fully healed. Using the ankle too soon caused a constant tearing and re-tearing of the ligaments that would flare up every so often over the course of the year.  It got progressively worse (and more frequent) until it began bothering me every day at the end of the day and so I began a second attempt to rehab it in late July of this year.  That seems to have fixed the problem for now, but this was a long and arduous process. 

Details of the second course of rehab included cortisone injections and 3-4 weeks of ankle immobilization.  After those 4 weeks came time in a walking boot and then a switch to motion-control sneakers, while attending physical therapy 3 times weekly for 2 hour sessions for the duration.  For the entire length of the rehab I have been under a doctor-recommended ban on cutting sports.  Think about that length of time -- from the end of July until two weeks ago.  That’s a little more than THREE MONTHS!  Needless to say, I think we would all hate to see anything like this happen to Kyle Orton. 

Knowing this about the past few months of my life, you would think that I would not advocate playing Kyle Orton until he’s back at 100%.  And you’d be right.  Except for Chargers week, and here’s why…

The Chargers come into the game tied with the broncos at 6-3 for the divisional lead.  If they win this game, then they will be 7-3 and the Broncos will sit at 6-4.  The broncos will no longer have the head to head tiebreak. The tie break will be very significant for the Broncos, especially if Orton is out or any length of time.  Without Orton, our tough but manageable end-of-season schedule looks a whole lot more difficult. 

Let’s go down the list of how divisional tiebreaks work in the NFL.  They can be found in this post by go4broncos, which was made on Monday and first got me thinking about the issue of whether or not to play Orton.  After overall win-loss records and head-to-head records are tied, divisional records are examined.  I worry about playing in Arrowhead in December, but I have faith in McD and company (and the Chiefs are terrible this year).  Let’s predict that both teams win all their games against jokeland and KC. Both teams would then be 5-1 within the division. 

The next tiebreaker is record in common games:

Both teams lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. 

The Chargers have beaten the Eagles and Giants. 

This puts them at 2-2 having yet to play Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington and Dallas. 

I would predict wins against Cleveland and Washington, a loss against the Bengals and the Dallas game going either way. 

By these predictions, their end of season record would then be either 5-3 or 4-4, depending on the Dallas game. 

The Broncos have beaten Dallas, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. 

They have also lost to Washington. 

This puts the broncos at 3-3 having yet to play New York and Philadelphia.

I predict a loss to New York without Orton, but I believe we could win it if he’s healthy enough. 

I predict a win against the Eagles.  (B-Dawk sees possible retribution upon the team that forsook him and decides to TAAAAAAKKKKEEEEE IIIITTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.)

These predictions would leave the Broncos with an end of season record at -- you guessed it -- either 5-3 or 4-4, depending on the Giants game. 

Man, that Washington loss really hurts us here.

The next tiebreaker is Conference winning percentage:

The broncos are currently 5-2 within the conference (and would be 5-3 after this hypothetical loss)– still to play Indy and the 3 divisional games.  My guess for these games is a 3-1 finish with the loss coming to the Colts.  Leaving the Broncos with a 8-4 conference record.  

The Chargers are 4-3 and would be 5-3 after this hypothetical win – still to play Cleveland, Cincinnati, and the Chiefs and Raiders, once each.  By my previous predictions, this would be a 3-1 finish leaving SD with a -- again, you guessed it – 8-4 conference record.  (Uncanny, isn’t it?!)

Next in the tiebreak line is Strength of Victory, which is the winning percentage of teams we’ve beaten:

Assuming my predictions are correct, both teams will have beaten OAK and KC twice, CLE, PHI, and each other once

We would also beat CIN, NE and DAL (which could end up being a common victory as well)

They would also beat WAS, TEN, MIA, NYG (which also could be a common victory…  and let’s say they lose to Dallas)

What we now notice is that unless SD loses games they should win, a win on Sunday, by my predictions, gives them an 11-5 record (12-4 if they beat DAL) to our 10-6 (11-5 if Kyle’s healthy and we beat NY).  However, we also see that we likely win the divisional tiebreak if they drop a game they shouldn’t and/or the Dallas and New York games shake out in our favor.  That’s the mixed blessing of having NE and IND instead of MIA and TEN.  Their win vs. Tennessee against our loss to Indy is discrepancy, but with a tie the fact that NE is better than MIA all but assures us the win. 

 A Bronco win Sunday likely locks up the division for us as both teams would be 11-5 (without the NY and DAL games) and the Broncos will hold the head-to-head tiebreak.  This game is likely be the most important of the regular season this year,  which brings me back to the Orton debate… 

Because this game is so important, I would say that if Kyle can play at even 70% on Sunday, he will give us the best chance to win and should play.  However, as I’ve been saying in a couple of comments to other posts, He should be shut down immediately after the SD game until he is 100%.  We don’t want to mess with lingering ankle trouble, but this game is too important to the outcome of the season. 

What does everyone think?