The Heyward-Bey Assault Index
One statement you hear frequently from fans and from the media is that certain quarterbacks are victims of bad receivers who drop a lot of passes. The statement was made about Kyle Orton during the first three games of 2009. It's also a constant mantra of Chicago fans this year with Jay Cutler. The conventional thinking is that if only Jay's receivers could hold onto the ball, the Bears would be a playoff team.
But which quarterbacks in the NFL really are the victim? And which QBs are just playing one on TV?
For the answer to this question, I'd like to introduce you to a fun little stat called the Heyward-Bey Assault Index.
The Heyward-Bey Assault Index
You can probably already guess where I'm going with this. Darrius Heyward-Bey, multi-millionaire and 1st-round draft pick for the Oakland Raiders, has hands of complete stone. He'd have a hard time catching a nylon football with Velcro gloves. I've added the word "assault" because when he's catching your ball, it feels like he just sucker punched your completion percentage. So this index is named for Al Davis's latest investment.
The Index is amazingly simple and can be understood even by the most casual of fans. Essentially, it's the number of dropped passes as a percentage of total passes. The data is courtesy of Stats, LLC (http://hosted.stats.com/fb/index.asp). I have only included quarterbacks with a minimum of 180 attempts.
Orton is a good example for understanding this Index. Only 9 of his 287 passes this year have been receiver drops. This translates to 3.14%, which is remarkably low. We can reasonably conclude that Orton's receivers, when they are open, have been holding on to the ball very well.
Notice who leads the index. It's our friend JaMarcus Russell. Given how many passes the Oakland Raiders' wide receiving corp drops, you can understand why this index is named for the overpaid Heyward-Bey. The Hutt was benched for a whole variety of legitimate reasons, but its too bad Oakland can't bench its entire group of wide receivers as well.
I find this table interesting also because of Jay Cutler. Cutler apologists are always pointing out that his receivers drop too many passes, and that's the reason he's not been more successful. From this table, we can see that it's simply not true. His index (3.25%) is well below most quarterbacks on this list, and barely larger than Orton's.
The chart also gives a little insight into Matt Cassel's situation in Kansas City as well. The Chiefs have been horrible on 3rd downs this year. It's clear from this chart (and from watching several of their games) that the wide receivers have had some problems holding on to the ball.
Since the Broncos are playing San Diego tomorrow, it's also worth noting the index of Phil Rivers, which is 6.02%. This is almost double Orton's index. Perhaps San Diego noticed this too, and that's one reason why Chris Chambers is no longer with them. However, if you'd still rather have Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and Malcom Floyd over Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler, you can be my guest.
For me, two other surprises on this list are Tom Brady and Brett Favre. Their receivers have been dropping many more passes that I had thought. This makes what they are doing this year even more impressive.
Any other surprises?
14 recs |
57 comments
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Comments
Rodgers...
This fun new stat helps clarify Green Bay’s overall offensive struggles this year and makes Rodgers more impressive for the season. No offensive line and receivers that cannot hold onto the ball.
by Ramblin'man on Nov 21, 2009 5:03 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Good point, Ramblin'
I think Rodgers is a 1st rate QB, and with only 5 picks this year, he is really playing well, despite all the stuff you mentions.
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by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 5:43 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Rogers is the real deal
A truly great QB very soon. His line sucks, but he’s also got to get a better clock in his head. Those are both fixable though. He’s gonna be special IMHO.
by elvisalex on Nov 21, 2009 11:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
He also has to get rid of the ball quicker sometimes.
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by weazel on Nov 22, 2009 12:30 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
matt cassel's index is gonna go up.....
.. no dwayne bowe…yikes
by march20 on Nov 21, 2009 5:16 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
The conventional thinking is that...
…the Bears offensive line sucks and the receivers are all third-rate talents. I never hear anybody talk about drops when excusing Cutler’s woes.
by ELGee on Nov 21, 2009 5:18 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
ELGee, fair point you bring up
…I do think Chicago fans, however, do like to look every way but Cutlers. I just searched on Windy City for 1 minute and found this reference to Greg Olsen’s drops:
http://www.windycitygridiron.com/2009/10/19/1090780/must-read-or-not-its-up-too-you
But I hear you man. Certainly, you bring up a lot of conventional wisdom…
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 5:48 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
el gee is right
bears dropping the ball isn’t the problem so much this year. more like bears receivers themselves dropping to the ground while the ball is in mid-air or running somewhere they should not be running to (supposedly). my favorite pick so far this year was thrown to TE kellen davis during the latest debacle against the niners. this guy is 6’7" 260 at least. decent pass too but this guy lets a wee 190 lb cornerback blatantly outmuscle him for the ball. very very weak. and yes jc superstar looks to be regressing in mid-season. i think it’d be hard not to with some of the clowns he is stuck with.
funny stat name though, i like it. heyward bey’s hands remind me of that guy from that old movie necessary roughness. “blow the whistle ref, blow the whistle!!” maybe dhb can catch a ball or two with his facemask like his twin does in the movie.
by reefermadness3 on Nov 21, 2009 9:53 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
With Greg Olsen being a TE
would that factor into this formula or is it just conventional wide receivers?
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by Ditkavsworld on Nov 21, 2009 10:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey dkw
All drops, so yes
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 10:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I see
very interesting. But yes as stated our major problem is our line and lack of running game. Just a tough year, and with the injury bug molesting the locker room it just might get tougher.
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by Ditkavsworld on Nov 21, 2009 10:59 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
You only need to see Favre this year to realize what happens with a running game.
By the way, what are the chances you guys get Shanny? I would actually become a Bears fan if this happens.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 11:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
You know
I don’t really see the Shanny thing happening. I base this soely on that fact that I don’t think the Bears want to eat Lovies or Jerry’s contract. I wouldn’t be against it. Bottom line there are some big holes to fill and they must be addressed in the offseason or the year after you will definately see some changes.
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by Ditkavsworld on Nov 21, 2009 11:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
The Broncos ate 20 mil by releasing Shanahan so what's the difference.
Sometimes you just have to eat your loses and go on. That’s basically what Pat Bowlen did and enough is enough. Williing to let the team continue to slide might start crimping the franchises pocketbook, so hard decisions are sometimes the best decision..
by bfree2bronc on Nov 21, 2009 11:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
True
But Bears ownership is MUCH different that Broncos ownership. I’ll leave up to you to decide which is better. :-)
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by RockyMtnHigh on Nov 22, 2009 3:09 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
i can decide for you
hint: not the bears ownership.
by reefermadness3 on Nov 22, 2009 7:41 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting indeed
I guess the one stat this doesn’t indicate that I would be interested in is what the breakdown between position players are for drops, what perctange of the drops came from WR, TE, and RB. While I agree that Cutler’s percentage is low, I am guessing that he still gets a fair amount of drops from his WR versus say his RB and TE which have better hands, conversely, I would bet most of Orton’s drops have been from the RB. Would also be interesting to see what the percentage of drops came on third downs and would they have converted if the WR caught it.
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by Broncoman on Nov 21, 2009 5:19 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
BMan, these stats do exist, and I know the Football Outsiders tracks them
I agree would be interesting. Another idea you just gave me. Thanks!!!
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 5:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Dude...This is very interesting...It's another "fact-check" tool vs. the MSM
BTW…It is quite apparent that you are having quite a bit of fun with your new role and I for one, am enjoying your input…Not that I didn’t before…Just sayin’
by BroncoSense72 on Nov 21, 2009 5:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks BS72!
I hope the satire and sarcasm doesn’t infect Emmett, Steve, or Bartlett, then the world will have ended:-)
Tim and John, on the other hand, they were already, you know, a little crazy:-)
Really, though, it is fun to make people laugh. And Bronco fans, double. Hopefully, I can bring more casual fans some fun stats.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 5:53 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Denver's receivers have remarked
that Orton delivers a “catchable” ball. Must be something to that . . .
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by AZDynamics on Nov 21, 2009 5:42 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Great quote, AZ, I should have put this into the post
I appreciate you putting in for me!
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 5:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Drops can be the QBs fault
Blasting a close-in receiver with a bullet or making the receiver reach the wrong way can produce a “drop” that is really on the quarterback. That said, the difference between the high-percentage and low-percentage QBs is probably on the receivers.
by ClarkFan on Nov 21, 2009 6:05 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Clark, good point
This particular category that we call “drop” is a subjective decision. If someone fumbles, we can all agree that a certain RB fumbled. With a pass, one could say for instance, “Elway blasted the receiver from 5 yards away.” Another guy could look at the same pass and say, “Why didn’t he catch that one?”
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 6:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I do remember Elway blasting receivers when he was young...
sometimes they had to catch the ball in self-defense. ;-}
by ClarkFan on Nov 22, 2009 12:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody knows
that the QB makes the receiver. =)
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by KaptainKirk on Nov 21, 2009 5:52 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Hey Kap, I was thinking about your love for DHB when I was writing this.
I know you really loved that draft pick….for that Raiders!!
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 5:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
that should have been...for "the" Raiders....perhaps I should wear silver and black tomorrow...yuk
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 6:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
No. Please wear your Orange and Blue. We will bash the raiders good in a few weeks. so you have plenty of time to save up.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Nov 21, 2009 6:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff, Dude
I’ve been banging the drum all year about how Marshall is a much better player in 2009 than in 2008. Orton’s completion rate to him is around 65% (as opposed to 55% last year). More touchdowns, more YAC, a longer catch average. I’ve been hard on the guy in the past because I believed he was being evaluated for potential rather than performance. The performance has now arrived.
by Chibronx on Nov 21, 2009 6:07 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Chibronx, totally agree. I remember you were very consistent on that point.
Will be interesting to see what is Denver’s preference in the off season. Who is first on the priority list?
Elvis?
Brandon?
Kyle?
A little off topic, but your statement made me think about it.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 6:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice job dude...
Heyward Bey is a real life Clifford Franklin…HORRID!
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by boydy2669 on Nov 21, 2009 6:26 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Just needs to get some stickum on those hands.
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by appleshampoo on Nov 21, 2009 9:16 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Clifford Franklin...what about Orton as Keanu?
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 9:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
that whole raiders team looks like a bunch of replacements out there…
nice job on the post, dude. (and rec’d)
by bailey disciple on Nov 21, 2009 10:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Even when the Broncos aren’t doing so hot you bring a smile to my face while I read about football. Thanks dude.
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by Drizzt396 on Nov 21, 2009 6:58 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I have a few other "Indexes" I am bringout out when there is down time at MHR, so I hope those make you laugh too!
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 9:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice one, El Duderino
Among the (many) things that folks forget when coming down on Orton is that he throws an extremely catchable ball. Thanks for putting this together!
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by Emmett Smith on Nov 21, 2009 7:24 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Emmett. I really should have put that quote in here about Orton. Would have tied the post together:-)
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 9:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
The Heyward Bay Assault Index? You are a funny guy The Dude.
I laughed long and hard when Al Davis selected the second coming of Troy Williamson with the 7th pick in the 2009 draft. Seeing about 35,000 empty seats at each Raider game brings joy to my heart knowing Al is vastly overpaying JaBust, injured DMC, Huff, Hey Bey Bey, and Gallery. I was almost sad when they traded away their 2011 1st round pick for Seymour, I was looking forward to see how they would waste that pick.
BTW, that Seymour trade for Oakland is the equivalent of allowing a 4th and 20 fake FG for a TD. It’s impossibly stupid to trade that pick for a 30 year old D-lineman that is about to be an UFA in a few months.
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by McGeorge on Nov 21, 2009 7:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
McG! It's a treat to have you commenting on my stuff. I think you are almost a celebrity here at MHR now.
I am with you on the Raiders. I anticipate their first round as much as Christmas. It’s always a gift to the AFC west.
It’s quite fascinating now that Seymour is with the Raiders. Everything they touch turns to go…crap.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 9:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
love the new info
The further along the season goes it seems as if there are many more reasons why taking Orton in the trade has paid big dividends. Also, is it me or is the MSM jumping the gun about the idea of Orton not getting and extension because of this injury….Man they love to hate him! They just cant wait to see him go down in flames!
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by vdisciple on Nov 21, 2009 8:46 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
What you are forgetting is that Seymor is the final piece to the puzzle.
Unfortunately for Al Davis that puzzle is “How can the Patriots get high draft picks without sucking?” instead of “How can the raiders win more football games?”
by Dwhite on Nov 21, 2009 9:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the MSM doesn't like that McD gives them nothing. During the bye week they were saying...not is the time to lock Orton up.
And now they say he won’t get a deal because of the sprain. You are correct, discipline.
Orton is going to get extended, no doubt, but McD wants to see what he is going to do over the season. Apparently, Orton and McD carpool together on game days…I’m just saying….
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 9:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Personally, IMHO
I don’t see Orton being extended until after the season, if at all. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of Kyle’s. I just think it makes best business sense to wait and view all the options. His price shouldn’t climb too fast, and if somehow it did Coach could get value through franchise tagging then trading or RFA (assuming no new CBA). I like Orton, I’m just saying too many unknowns. Time is on the side of management, no reason to rush anything. I’d be shocked if they resigned him any time soon.
by elvisalex on Nov 21, 2009 11:52 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Another great write up TJ
Is it all those white russians that bring these tidbits to light? Whatever it is, the stats are singing off the page. Inspired stuff and certainly seems legit to me. After all, look which QB is ranked best — the guy with perhaps the best WR in the game. The antithesis of the DHB scenario.
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Nov 21, 2009 9:32 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Andre is a baaaad man.
Prepare for that lolita reference next week, buddy.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 9:46 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Brilliance
I’m with Broncoman, I would love to see the results for whether the drops were third down or not.
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by Jeremy Bolander on Nov 21, 2009 10:21 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Styg! Hope I can get that for a future post.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 21, 2009 11:09 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Truly great post
I learned with this; I enjoyed this. Thanks for putting it together! I took Cutler as the most interesting point here. We all know our WR’s don’t drop balls, but it almost seems that Cutler gets a pass in Chi-Town due to his supposedly inept receivers. These numbers shine a different light. Yet, with that said, I’ll be interested to see these stats again with a full-season sample size.
I mean it seems a little hard to swallow the idea that Hester and Company are such reliable WR’s in comparison to others ranked so far below them. Well, I know that’s not what those stats say, but it’s sort of implied. My guess is there are many variables and even judgments in what’s called drops and not. I wonder how many of Marshall’s fought-for, go-up-and get-em catches that Hester or Bennet watched fly over their head… and therefore (perhaps) not called a drop.
Lots of variables, but again… sitll very enlightening. Thanks!! Rec’d of course
by elvisalex on Nov 21, 2009 11:34 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I live across the river from Al Davis' Twin Peaks Ranch.
It’s a guest ranch where people come up and enjoy the scenic Salmon river on horse back or relax. It became defunct earlier this year and now I know why. He had to close it to afford Heyward Bey. Now that’s funny. He came up here last year and stayed a week in a guest house and never came out in fear of Bronco fans mugging him….heheheheh!
by bfree2bronc on Nov 22, 2009 12:00 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the info.
A very interesting stat those network people don’t bring up. Funny to see Cutler right with Orton, however that stat is misleading because his passes just get picked off. Where is the asterick? LOL!
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by weazel on Nov 22, 2009 12:32 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Addendum: Holy Crap!
According to Stats, Inc. Heyward Bey has been targeted 29 times for 6 receptions. This is unfathomable. He’s dropped a lot of balls (5). But the bigger problem would seem to be a combination of bad route running, bad gall skills and a terrible quarterback. 18 of the 29 times the balls been thrown his way, he hasn’t even been in position to make a play. Like the INT to Andre Goodman, where DHB was just wandering around the field like somebody walking off a drunk.
Thanks, again, Dude. Stats has some really good stuff available. When and if I ever have time again, I’ll head over there and try to produce some interesting posts.
by Chibronx on Nov 22, 2009 12:01 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Hate those bad gall skils
Nothing worse than that gall bladder problem…lol. I agree – those are atrocious numbers. Fun piece, great comments!
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 22, 2009 11:32 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

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