Knowshon Moreno - The Stats - Mile High Report

Knowshon Moreno - The Stats

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 2:44 PM MST Comment 46 comments

While we're all playing Monday morning quarterback, debating the now infamous Knowshon Moreno fumble, I thought I'd point out some recent trends at the position. In no way is this an exhaustive study, and I'm sure that there are many outliers that could weaken or refute the data presented here. I just wanted to point out what I'm looking at when I make my judgments.

Let's start with his game log. I've added the current (week 11) defensive rushing rank, and the average yards per carry given up by that team. Additionally, I've added a column looking at Knowshon's deviation from the average yards gained against those teams.

Week	Opp	Att	Yds	Y/A	Lng	TD	F	D Rush Rank	YPC	ΔYAC
1	@ CIN	8	19	2.4	8	0		2	3.8	-1.4
2	CLE	17	75	4.4	17	0		29	4.6	-0.2
3	@ OAK	21	90	4.3	9	1		30	4.4	-0.1
4	DAL	14	65	4.6	14	0	1	7	4.1	0.5
5	NWE	21	88	4.2	13	0	1	15	4.4	-0.2
6	@ SDG	18	44	2.4	6	0		22	4.2	-1.8
7	bye
8	@ BAL	10	39	3.9	12	1	1	5	3.5	0.4
9	PIT	5	3	0.6	4	0		1	3.4	-2.8
10	@ WAS	18	97	5.4	28	0		25	4.4	1
11	SDG	10	80	8	36	0	1	22	4.2	3.8

If we're to consider this weekend's game against the Chargers to be Knowshon's real breakout, you've gotta take it with a grain of salt because the Chargers run defense is decimated by injuries and giving up 4.2 yards per carry. I'd also like to point out that he's overachieved 4 times in his ten games, twice against a top ten rushing defense, and twice against teams in the lower third.

Here's the breakdown by rushing defense ranks:

	Att	Yds	Y/A	Avg. Rank
Versus top 16	58	214	3.69	6
Versus bottom 16	84	386	4.60	26

How does Knowshon's 4.23 yards per carry compare to his rookie peers?

Player	Draft Pos.	Record	Yr1 Att	Yr1 Yds	Yr1 A/C	Fumbles
Knowshon Moreno	Rd1 P 12	6-4	142	600	4.23	4
Donald Brown	Rd1 P27	10-0	54	236	4.37	0
Beanie Wells	Rd1 P31	7-3	100	469	4.69	1
LeSean McCoy	Rd2 P53	6-4	106	452	4.26	1
					4.39

He's under performing the mean by a statistically insignificant margin, but he's clearly the only running back expected to perform as a number one back. Only LeSean McCoy has the outright number 1 spot on the depth chart because of Westbrook's most recent injury. Again, fumbles rear their ugly head.

What were some of the young "special" backs' rookie seasons like?

Player	Draft Pos.	Record	Yr1 Att	Yr1 Yds	Yr1 A/C	Yr2 Att	Yr2 Yds	Yr2 A/C	Yr3 Att	Yr3 Yds	Yr3 A/C
Adrian Peterson	Rd 1 P 7	27-15	238	1341	5.63	363	1760	4.85	205	999	4.87
Maurice Jones-Drew	Rd 2 P 60	30-28	166	941	5.67	167	768	4.60	197	824	4.18
Chris Johnson	Rd 1 P 24	16-9	251	1228	4.89	170	1091	6.42	n/a	n/a	n/a
Michael Turner	Rd 5 P 154	16-10	376	1699	4.52	165	831	5.04	n/a	n/a	n/a
Steven Jackson	Rd 1 P 24	26-64	134	673	5.02	254	1046	4.12	346	1528	4.42
					5.15			5.00			4.49

The takeaway is that if we had something special on our hands, we'd know, and in many cases production will fall off or remain stagnant for the duration of the RBs career. RBs are typically finished by the time they're 30 because of the constant pounding they take, and it is very rare for a back that has consistently carried the ball early in their career to continue improving. Note that Michael Turner's statistics are based off of him taking over as the starter in Atlanta. I think it's important to note that he's a veteran getting plugged into a new system, yet his experience doesn't seem to matter, as he's below the mean of "special" players by nearly .6 yards.

My final bit of analysis. What is the recent trend in the NFL Draft?

2004 NFL Draft

Julius Jones, Michael Turner, Derrick Ward (Round 7), Willie Parker (undrafted). Busts Chris Perry, Kevin Jones round 1.

2005 NFL Draft

Ronnine Brown, Cedric Benson in round 1. Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Darren Sproles all round 4, Ryan Grant undrafted. Busts Carnell Williams round 1, Maurice Clarrett round 3.

2006 NFL Draft

Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai in round 1. LenDale White, MJD in round 2. Mike Bell undrafted.

2007 NFL Draft

AP, Marshawn Lynch in round 1. Michael Bush round four, Pierre Thomas (undrafted)

2008 NFL Draft

Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson all round 1. Matt Forte, Ray Rice, round 2. Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton round 3.

2009 NFL Draft

Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Chris Wells all round 1. LeSean McCoy round 2.

Takeaways:

It appears that the evaluation period for an NFL running back is about three years. 2005 marked a big year for RBs, and 2006 and 2007 had relatively few productive backs taken. This would indicate to me that a team was not willing to take a risk on drafting a RB high, because so many had been taken that were still on rookie contracts (i.e. in the evaluation period). Talent was clearly down in '06 and '07, but it featured two can't miss prospects in Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush (he missed).
2008 saw a glutton of running backs flood the NFL, possibly because of my observation that the 2005 class had been completely evaluated.
The most likely chance of success for a first round pick is towards the lower end of the first round, or much later in the draft. I would imagine this has something to do with having a line in place, or a passing game to take pressure off of that back in the case of backs taken late in the first round. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson had neither. A later round pick might benefit from a lighter workload in college (perhaps less carries, perhaps less hard hits).

I'm sure you all know what my opinion of Knowshon is without having to spell it out for you. I wanted to put this stuff out there so that you had the WHOLE picture. It's rare to find a superstar RB, and if you have one, you know by his rookie year, because their shelf life is so short that they have to be plugged into the system and succeed before their body gives out. Obviously the typical caveat applies-- there's always room for improvement, but unfortunately the stats seems to say that you get what you got at running back.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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I think

He’s been progressing nicely behind a line that is in transition. The other backs in this class systems in place already that fits their personnel. We, on the other hand, are weak on the interior and attempting to run a power scheme mixed with zone blocking. If I’m not mistaken, I believe that we’ve run more zone the past two games and moreno’s average has soared. He does need to fix his fumbling problem but so does buck. What I don’t understand is why they are fumble prone even though ball security was stressed in training camp.

"Pleased? We are excited about the proposition of going forward from where we are right now. Pleased? I don't know if you want to say pleased. You may want to hang your hat on pleased. I don't want to hang my hat on nothing right now."

-Brian Dawkins, on the play of the defense

Once he gets his hands on you, there's not much you're going to do. Then you can't outrun him, you can't run around him, you can't really run him over -- so you've just got to deal with it."

Elvis Dumerville, on Ryan Clady

by milehighnation on Nov 23, 2009 3:12 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

From all accounts...

Knowshon works hard, is very motivated and quite intelligent. That certainly bodes well for him. It appears that he does have some top tier physical ability, but consistently lacks big play explosiveness. I agree that our line is struggling with the transition, but I feel like that may be the ultimate indicator of his future success.

As a #1 overall drafted at your position, the scrutiny is intense. I’d argue that he’s been spectacularly ordinary through his first 10 games. As I pointed out above, typically a running back is plugged in and gets their yards. If our line doesn’t get it figured out, his “unproductive” carries will catch up with him and his athletic ability will be diminished. I essentially expect nothing better than what he’s done, because it’s so difficult to improve at this position. It’s not like route running or reading defenses, it’s find a clear hole, having extraordinary vision and being capable of accelerating at the correct time. I don’t think you can improve any of those, and that’s why I’m worried about him.

Add in that more than 50% of all first round picks are out of football in 6 years, (source) and I don’t think he’s destined for anything more than a pedestrian career.

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 3:22 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

I agree

I am worried that he will be ordinary and if he does not dramatically improve then he will be labeled a bust for being taken with the 12 pick. As far as his explosiveness goes, he had long runs in back to back games so I’m not worried about that. With the way he runs, sooner or later he will take off. In the first couple games I came encountered a bunch of the fan base that labeled him as injury prone because of his earlier injuries, but thankfully he’s held up pretty well considering the hits he has taken lately. So I’m hoping that he gets over his fumbling problem. I think most of my hope stems from him wearing the number 27. I want moreno to have enough success in this league to live up to what that number represents for both DW and Atwater

-Brian Dawkins, on the play of the defense

Once he gets his hands on you, there's not much you're going to do. Then you can't outrun him, you can't run around him, you can't really run him over -- so you've just got to deal with it."

Elvis Dumerville, on Ryan Clady

by milehighnation on Nov 23, 2009 3:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Top Rookie

Knowshon is the top rookie running back this year. He is undeniably improving. He is still in the top ten for ROY. I watched the replay of the last game several times. He had crossed the goaline with the ball under control. He hit Hochstein’s knee which was itself across the goaline. It should have been ruled a touchdown.

The bottom line for me is that he may not be nor ever become a superstar RB, but he is clearly better than average. That does not equate to “bust.” As you yourself said, it is rare to find a superstar RB. I think you are being too hard on Knowshon.

by Endzone on Nov 23, 2009 4:06 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I know he crossed

Someone actually enlarged a picture of when he crossed the line and his SHOULDER is actually across the line with the ball in his hands with possession. If I’m not mistaken, can’t replays be zoomed in.

-Brian Dawkins, on the play of the defense

Once he gets his hands on you, there's not much you're going to do. Then you can't outrun him, you can't run around him, you can't really run him over -- so you've just got to deal with it."

Elvis Dumerville, on Ryan Clady

by milehighnation on Nov 23, 2009 4:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just arguing from expectations.

I think Donald Brown is the most talented back in this draft, and as he gets more carries (coming off injuries) you’ll see it. He might even do it against the Broncos as the Colts should have home field wrapped by that point.

He is not the top rookie running back, he’s the only starting rookie running back. None of those other players has a #1 attached to them. Now that LeSean McCoy is the man in Philly, you’ll see his production explode also, because he’ll be used effectively.

We need to continue feeding Knowshon because he appears to get stronger as the game goes on. I hope that happens throughout his career, but he’s likely not going to buck the trend.

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 4:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen much of brown

I hoped that we’d draft him. How is he looking so far?

-Brian Dawkins, on the play of the defense

Once he gets his hands on you, there's not much you're going to do. Then you can't outrun him, you can't run around him, you can't really run him over -- so you've just got to deal with it."

Elvis Dumerville, on Ryan Clady

by milehighnation on Nov 23, 2009 4:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like the injury bug might get him, but he looks excellent.

Really explosive. He’s got runs of 45 and 23 yards off of 50 carries and a catches of 72 and 24 yards off of 8 receptions. He’s very explosive and fits Indy’s offense very well. Addai has had somewhat of a renaissance this year, so Brown looks like he’s relegated to the Felix Jones role for now.

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 4:23 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish you would argue more from results. Your research is more compelling than your opinion. Expectations based on where a man is drafted are a poor judge of results. I could care less where a man is drafted if he performs. I fail to understand how he is not the top rookie RB when he has more carries and more yards than any other rookie RB and is the only rookie RB in the running for ROY. Are you harboring an opinion that the Broncos should not have drafted him to begin with?

by Endzone on Nov 23, 2009 4:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

i think

He just arguing that the expectations that moreno has are higher than the others of his class and that moreno has not lived up to what we would expect out of the 12 pick considering the average production out of the others.

-Brian Dawkins, on the play of the defense

Once he gets his hands on you, there's not much you're going to do. Then you can't outrun him, you can't run around him, you can't really run him over -- so you've just got to deal with it."

Elvis Dumerville, on Ryan Clady

by milehighnation on Nov 23, 2009 4:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm arguing that if you have a special running back you tend to know it immediately.

Hence the other “special” seasons I put in there. Typically a back will compile a 5.0 YAC and that will decline. There’s certainly time for that to happen as our schedule softens, but I’m calling it like I see it— he’s going to be a dependable starting back (unless he can’t fix the fumbles).

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 4:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

As I recall

TD looked good in his first year – but far from exceptional. In his second year he improved by leaps and bounds, and in years and four he blew the lid off the NFL. Shanny’s offense was considered very complex at the time, it took a while for Davis to learn his role. Just as in the Shanny offense, the McD offense requires an RB to do more than take hand offs and run to day light. Early in the season KM did not understand the speed of the game or how to coast behind a block and then accelerate through the hole – he was full speed just trying to keep up with the game as it appeared to him. I see him now allowing blocks to form, taking better angles to the hole and in the open feild. He is not being asked to be THE running threat, rather to play a role in a balanced offensive threat. As KM matures he is getting more carries and more responsiblity. I think he is going to be a threat for years to come – but lets avoid asking him to make tackles on interception returns.

by Flunkie on Nov 23, 2009 7:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think legendarywalton wants a superstar RB right now today. One who you can tell immediately is going to be a great player. For every one of those there are five other superstar RB’s who are not immediately recognized as great players in their first year. I think Knowshon is doing great for his first year and recommend we wait a few years before saying that he has not met our expectations.

by Endzone on Nov 23, 2009 7:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd also like to add that teams that knock it out of the park with their #1 overall tend to win faster and stay better consistently.

NE – Richard Seymour #6 overall. Pit has lead the league in evaluation – Plaxico, Santonio Holmes, Troy Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Mendenhall all first round picks.

You’ve got to nail those picks to be successful.

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 4:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

An average RB is not worthy of a top 15 pick

Hence he would be considered a bust IMO, I hope he progresses, but I am tired of the excuses for him. He is at the goal line, it is 1st down, hold the ball close and don’t take the risk to get it knocked out and have a fumble, he had other plays similar this year where he does the same thing and gets the ball knocked out, they weren’t ruled fumbles, but when you get careless with the ball, you always increase the risk of having something like where Hochstein or someone else knocks the ball out. That is just fundlemental footabll, can it be corrected, sure, but it is not a good indication that almost every game we have a RB fumble the ball, especially someone who is a top 15 pick.

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by Broncoman on Nov 24, 2009 8:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Big Bill, Excellent Stuff...I was going to do a pieceon running backs later in the week..

mind if I source a little of your information. you have done good work here!

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by TJ Johnson on Nov 23, 2009 4:43 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Take all you'd like.

Just finished my Financial Accounting and Reporting exam today and it had me in research mode.

by legendarywalton on Nov 23, 2009 4:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think anybody can analyze KM based on their previously held opinion of the pick and reach any conclusion they want.

I don’t spend a lot of time on other fan sites, by I wonder if the qualifying language Broncos fans use to undercut the success of players is as prevalent elsewhere.

For example, KM has by all rights, run the ball very well two weeks in a row, yet you say:

If we’re to consider this weekend’s game against the Chargers to be Knowshon’s real breakout, you’ve gotta take it with a grain of salt because the Chargers run defense is decimated by injuries and giving up 4.2 yards per carry.

As if it doesn’t really count. It reminds me of all the qualifying language around Kyle Orton’s proof that he could go vertical against Washington. That didn’t count because Washington screwed up. Not saying you said that…just saying that was the prevailing wisdom of the people that don’t like Kyle Orton. The people that previously liked Kyle Orton, of course, went apocalyptic about the whole ‘it was because Washington blew coverages’ argument.

So following that line, you go onto point out that no other rookie back has had the feature role, even though, when you take into account the full season, thats not exactly true. He has been the featured back for only the last two weeks, but he has been the definition of a platoon back for the vast majority of his very young NFL career. So once he was given a feature role, he responded with 28 – 177 – 6.3. So by your logic, I— an unabashed KM supporter— could rightfully argue that Adrian Peterson should be his complimentary wingman— he’s that darn good when given the right opportunity.

I’m not saying that, of course. I think he’s developing quite nicely— but I guess I could hang my hat on whats he done when given the chance, make the stats favor my predetermined opinion of him, and declare him the greatest Broncos draft pick ever.

Just sayin….

by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 23, 2009 7:56 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

I believe you hit it on the head PO

We all knew when the 12th pick was selected that this DAY would come, people would get out their slide rules and start picking their noses at trying to find something wrong with the pick. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I was scratching my head and trying to decipher it myself. But, I’m not the coach, nor do I have the knowledge that the coach has, so I decided to go along with with they felt was right for the team. We needed a running back and Moreno was the best available player at that time. Documented and said by most of the nfl analyst. To sit here and back seat drive the Broncos organization is fruitless and a waste of time.

Now, all of you experts out there tell me how many of the first 12 picks have been outstanding so far this season. Name one. That’s right, we lost 4 games and 1 of them we were supposed to win and now it finding fault in every thing. Moreno has a lot to learn about the NFL. Whether he does or not, it’s up to him. I’m just glad some of you so-called football know-it-alls aren’t picking players for our team. That’s just my opinion! I have one too.

by bfree2bronc on Nov 24, 2009 2:29 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that MHR has some of the most passionate fans at SBN.

Easily some of the most intelligent too. I’ll be the first to admit to what Guru said on his MHR Radio broadcast (paraphrasing here), “I don’t care about fans that root for other teams, or fans that care about fantasy football, or fans that care about the rest of the league, I care about Broncos fans.” Well, I guess you can put me in the category of being a fan of the whole league, because I don’t miss a snap of a single game (thank you rewind). It’s arrogant, conceited, and probably inaccurate, but I feel like a lot of fans here strictly pay attention to the Broncos— and that’s perfect, that’s what this site should be. I think my perspective is offputting because I might be enamored with other teams and other players, although I am unequivocally a broncos die hard.

That said, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to document San Diego’s injury marred defensive line and inability to stop the run through the first 6 weeks (they’ve steadily improved, which would support your argument that the accomplishment was quite impressive). I do believe they had another injury to their replacement Defensive Tackle during the game if I am not mistaken.

by legendarywalton on Nov 25, 2009 12:46 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

MHR is a mixture of people and content. That is what makes it great.

There are the people you talk about that only watch the Broncos game and don’t care about anything else. That’s fine. Then, there are people like you that bring a fresh new perspective. Then, you have others that give you stats, X’s and O’s, personal stories, opinion and news.

I think you need a good mixture of all of those things to keep it all together. I don’t think your perspective is offputting at all. It’s good to have a broad spectrum of opinion and knowledge. It can help you realize where your own opinion or knowledge may be flawed so that you can refine it and become more informed, overall.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Nov 25, 2009 8:42 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I follow the league pretty close...I don't go to other teams fan sites.

Thats what I was saying. There is tendency in Bronco Country for people to refuse to move their opinion of Broncos players no matter what actually happens on the field.

I don’t have some ingrained need to defend KM. I just wanted to point out that his career is so young— and mixed, really— that a determined analysis could reach just about any conclusion about him the author wants to make.

I don’t think its a reach to say, for example, that now that he has settled down and appears to have adjusted to the speed of the game, he has shown some of his advertised good traits— vision, passion, burst. I don’t think the opportunity has yet to present its self to see if he has that long speed extra gear (explosiveness) that many use to define a ‘special’ RB. I thought we were going to see it on his longish run Sunday, but it appeared that Weddle had the angle and KM was setting up a move rather than trying to beat him with speed….or maybe not. Maybe he’ll never be that homerun back, but I’ve seen evidence that he is very good in close quarters and can routinely turn a three yarder into a 12 yarder…which adds up over time just as nicely.

The jury is still out over all, IMO.

by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 25, 2009 9:01 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, great stat hunting to break out his "starter" games.

That would be rare indeed to find a back that performs even more admirably with greater carries. As one poster here already commented, as carries go up YAC continues to drop (general rule). I’ve never understood why some backs get stronger as the game goes along (pardon my age, but the only one that really comes to mind is Marion Barber circa 2007 & 08) but I would think it has to do with smelling the victory and wanting to deliver a punishing blow. I personally wouldn’t classify KM as a punishing runner, but there’s no way in hell I’d want to tackle him.

by legendarywalton on Nov 25, 2009 12:50 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take just a jist of a different view....

I hate the fumbles also, yet a couple of them have been a bit wierd. Not sure what that means, I guess I’m giving Knowshon a pass for now…I just hope he improves his upper body strength.

What I’ve seen in Moreno is not a lot of ‘rare’ tallent but a heart that wants to succeed—this is a good thing…at least its a start. In a way Knowshon reminds me of Terrell Davis, both where he came from, as well as his style. As far as I’m concerned Terrell was the best one-cut-and-go-runner ever in the NFL and to his fortune he happened on a team that had a running scheme that exactly fit his mold…Davis to the ‘Hall’ …. period. The problem with Knowshon is he is not Davis nor does his team have an ‘Elway’ to push defenders back, or a scheme that is defined yet. … but I still haven’t given up on him.

So what is the difference? Why is Knowshon not performing as our new Terrell? What is up?
Well, I’ll tell you, because I think I’ve figured it out….its because of fear, or should I say, ‘the lack of fear.’

Knowshon had no fear when he came to Denver, first round pick going to a ‘legendary’ running program. Davis was scared to death every time he thought of football in Denver. Try to prove me wrong…you just can’t.

Davis had so much fear of his new situation that he tried to commit suicide, in pre-season, with ‘purposed’ crushing impacts on of all things……….special teams……

Moreno, with no fear, thought he could dance in the backfield for a moment…and defenders would step aside.

Knowshon, when he breaks the initial plane, gets decent yardage, yet, without fear, runs straight into a TD stopping tackle.

Davis was so different, so full of fear. When given the ball he would look at what was open, fearing those huge linemen, slide through them quickly, then, hating to be touched…would somehow become this 4.25 forty guy and out run the entire field. Funny that Davis, that Terrell that should be in the ‘Hall’

So where does Knowshon go from here, … , … not sure.

maybe that push from Marshall was an undertow of something that looked ugly, yet might be a ‘wanting to win’ … ‘grow up, hold onto the ball, fear losing’ type of fear that knowshon needs.

I like Knowshon….and he will do us good.

Playoffs is us, until it ain’t……

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Nov 23, 2009 8:13 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

The no fear thing

Once knew a real tallented bull rider working his way up. Kid had no fear, did everything wrong and still pulled off winning rides. One day a low paying ‘jackpot’ he drew a bull with a reputation for hurting people. Everyone told him to just turn the bull out, not enough money at stake to take such a chance. Nope – he called for the bull, the gate opened and in less than two seconds the young cowboy was critically injured. Missed the rest of the years events and had to get a real job when he got out of the hospital.
When KM was drafted one of the knocks on him, here on MHR and elsewhere, is that he was too eager to leave his feet. Like the bull rider above, KMs natural ability has in many respects limited his professional growth. With his natural ability he was so far ahead of most of his college rivals that he simply got away with the bad habits. The growth I have seen in KM is in the transition to the pro game – he is smart, dedicated, and disciplined enough to actively work on learning the right way to do things. He has Buck and Jordan there to help him along.
I see KM improving through the rest of the year. Getting harris and Orton totally healthy will do much for Moreno’s individual stats. Remember that TD ran behind one of the best O lines in the history of the NFL, with the absolute best O line coach, and a hall of fame QB that dared anyone to key on the run. Look at the whole picture and I think KM compares very favorably to Davis… and I believe I heard TD himself say such and more.

by Flunkie on Nov 23, 2009 8:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL. , . is that not what I just wrote

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Nov 23, 2009 9:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

but see, it is too easy to write just 2 words – so I must embelish just for sake of reputation. Did give your a rec

by Flunkie on Nov 23, 2009 9:42 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

I think you're right

Moreno will get better as long as the O-line is executing:

If we’re ZB-ing, he could be more successful sooner, rather than later, due to our current personnel.

If we’re power running, we better have 300+ lbs. monsters opening gaps for him, or else the play will get blown up in the backfield. And KM will get blown up along with the play itself.

Nice picture, Mike. Very peaceful.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Nov 23, 2009 10:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know...I blame the play calling more than anything.

It’s been horrible at times….Knowshon has adequate skills thus far.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Nov 24, 2009 7:54 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Play calling has been frustrating, especially vs SD @ home.

I know we’re trying to win here, but why not just keep pounding the ball? I’m sure it was related to Kyle’s inability to function from under the center, but god did we hamstring ourselves there. I wish Simms would have been even marginal— that game was winnable for about 2.5 quarters. If Orton’s healthy it’s for sure a game, and likely a Broncos win, just based on our ability to run the ball. SD was able to key on the pass and it was all over from there.

by legendarywalton on Nov 25, 2009 12:38 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You left me scratching my head

First I don’t know how you picked the guys in the special backs section. It really seems like you just picked a bunch of guys with good stats and decided that since KM isn’t like them you don’t like him. There’s a ton of other guys who have had success in the NFL who have completely different career arcs than those guys.

The comparison with YPC with the other picks is also pretty off. It’s fairly well known that YPC drops off as carries go up. So it’s no surprise that KM has a lower YPC with three times as many attempts as Brown and 50% more carries than Wells.

Also looking at that I can’t believe that you are so high on Brown. There’s no way that he sustains that high a YPC as his workload increases and it’s barely higher than KM as it is.

Another point is that YPC is not the worlds greatest measure of a RB in the first place. It can’t distinguish between a RB who is boom and bust or one who is consistent. It’s much better to have a RB who can consistently get the yards that you need than it is to have one who breaks off a couple of long runs but gets stuffed a lot.

I would encourage you to check out the success rate that they have over at Football outsiders. Because it does a good job of evaluating that. They have KM ranked 8th in success rate which is great.

KM may not be that most flashy RB but he’s the type that’s going to help us win games which I truly appreciate. I’m very happy with him as the 12th overall pick, as long as he learns to hang on to the ball. :)

by Fan in Exile on Nov 24, 2009 9:11 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Shouldn't have brought up the FO.

I didn’t want to introduce that here, but since you’re acquainted, KnoMo has a -3.7% DVOA, good for 24th in the league. In addition, when you add that statistic to his success rate, it means that he rarely gets more than his expected yards. That means he is probably a product of his system, unable to make the final burst or broken tackle necessary to yield big plays.

Also, nearly all of the backs I chose as “special” are ranked tops in the league by FO. You can’t evaluate Knowshon against any other era’s backs, and I chose these guys because they’re the new breed. I’d rather have any one of those guys over Knowshon. None of them were drafted higher with the exception of Adrian Peterson. That’s pretty “Special” to me.

by legendarywalton on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Still scratching my head

You seem to think that FO proves that you’re right about KM, but it doesn’t. He’s ranked right with Wells and ahead of McCoy. Brown doesn’t have enough carries to be rated. According to what they’ve got there’s simply no reason to think that any of the other picks would have been better.

You’re conclusion that the stats show that KM is a product of the situation is entirely unfounded. Especially because we know that we’ve got an injured RT, and one Guard and Center who have been over matched this season while switching to a new system.

His production shows that he’s been a success this year and you are clearly grasping at straws to try to show otherwise.

More than that you’re still trying to defend the cherry picking that you’ve done with your special backs which is meaningless. So he’s not like AP? it doesn’t really tell us anything about what his future might be.

by Fan in Exile on Nov 24, 2009 11:01 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

He was drafted as if he should've been AP

He’s nothing special, the stats prove it. Move on.

by legendarywalton on Nov 24, 2009 11:15 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

About AP

He was drafted 7th overall not 12th which is a big difference and the only reason he fell that far was because of an injury. If anyone had known how he would produce he would have been number one over all.

The stats show that KM is a quality starting RB, if you want more than that your expectation are way out of whack with reality.

by Fan in Exile on Nov 24, 2009 11:25 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Alright we finally agree.

He’s going to be a starting running back. I would naturally argue that this year’s draft has not produce much in terms of first year talent. Again, in my opinion other positions tend to progress more during their career than RB, so I think we’re seeing very, very close to the final product (always have to leave wiggle room, right? :OP)

If you said that we evaluated him at 12 as being a starter, then yes good pick. However, I think the blueprint is to take superstar talent with high first round picks, and if it’s not available, you should move down the board. Afterall, the Steelers, Patriots, and Colts all crushed their high 1st rounders and ended up drafting later and later, thereby getting more cost effective labor. As it is, we’ll likely end up overpaying Knomo for the production we get.

I get it, you don’t like my opinion and that’s fine. I did the research to augment my “visual test” and I feel that it supports me. I didn’t cherry pick those guys, because 9 out of 10 people would agree that those are the top 5 backs in the league. Yes, it’s subjective, but I thought I provided a fair and balanced analysis. I really made this post to look at how getting a starter versus getting a superstar impacts the trajectory of a franchise, and I don’t feel that we’ve altered the course of the franchise with this pick. Hence, move down the board and stockpile more depth. Usual caveat applies— hindsight is 20/20

by legendarywalton on Nov 24, 2009 12:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think we are seeing anything close to eye to eye, because your expectations for what a first round pick are IMO far too high. Not many picks alter franchise and the guys who might tend to go in the top five, even then they very often don’t pan out.

There’s about one franchise changer per year when a team gets one you should just thank your lucky stars to expect one with your first rounder is crazy. We should expect a starter not a superstar.

To put it in perspective the average team gets 1.5 starters out of the draft. That’s really not that much.

Just because you make up a stat about what people think doesn’t mean that you aren’t cherry picking. At the same time so what if they are the top five backs this year? It doesn’t in any way mean that’s the only way to become a top five back or that KM won’t be.

Some backs get better, some don’t that’s just a fact of life.

by Fan in Exile on Nov 24, 2009 4:35 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

1.5 starters- Great stat.

Mind sharing where you got that from? That sounds like a nugget from an overall draft analysis article— a topic that I love.

by legendarywalton on Nov 25, 2009 12:36 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a little crazy to compare Knowshon and TD

They come from different eras with respect to the NFL. In TD’s day, it wasn’t such a pass happy league with spread formations and the like. Along with this trend comes offensive lines that are geared toward the 55/45 or 60/40 pass/run ratios you see in use today. As an example, Clady’s an outstanding pass protection left tackle, but he’s not yet at least, a Zimmerman or even a Jones running left tackle. Knowshon has shown potential, but I keep waiting for him to see and hit the seam in the same way that Buck was early in the season. Provided he remains healthy, I think he can be very productive, even long term as the trend is to not let these guys get the hell kicked out them all season long, either by passing more or running back by committee. Is he worth a number one? – Answer still to come.
Go Broncs!

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Nov 24, 2009 10:39 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for pointing out the "era"

That’s exactly why I chose the guys I did. These running backs are playing in the era of spread football, so their skillsets are uniquely different, and the defenses that they face are comprised of very different athletes then we saw even 6 to 10 years ago. While these systems may run some throwback running plays, they are setup differently now then they were in previous years. In many ways you now pass to setup the run.

Remember, the tragedy of being a great player is that you’re competing with a fan’s memory, and that tends to change a lot of opinions. I also thought that these statistics might offer a different perspective, because it’s always awful rosy around here.

Buck has done much more with his opportunities than Knowshon, and everyone wants to contribute that to being a veteran. I’m just pointing out that it’s a fallacy. You should be able to run the same way you did in college— the only reason that young backs don’t see the field is because of blitz pickup.

by legendarywalton on Nov 24, 2009 10:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

What's amazing about comparing TD and KM...

…and the idea that what you see is what you get in a rookie season, is that while TD was promising, I think his YPC was 3.9. Its not like he came out of the gate hanging 2,000 yard seasons on folks. A more modern example would be DeAngelo Williams, who was so disappointing that the Panthers selected J. Stewart two short years later…at number 13. The book on Williams at that point was that he might, just maybe, develop into a decent change of pace back to compliment Stewart…a third down guy, basically. Now some argue that he’s the best back in the biz, but they certainly weren’t saying that his rookie year. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that Williams wasn’t included in this analysis, as he destroys the entire premise of the argument.

by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 24, 2009 5:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Williams’ progression

Davis’ progression…my bad on that point. His YPC was very good out of the gate.

by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 24, 2009 5:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

DeAngelo Williams is a great example.

I loved him coming out of college, and everyone expected him to slot in perfectly in a run oriented offense. What do you know, he bucks the trend and continues to improve! I wouldn’t say he blows my theory out of the water, but I can understand frustration trying to debate me with such a limited sample size.

Let’s hope KM proves that I belong behind a computer and not a draft board by pulling a DeAngelo and crushing it the rest of the way.

P.S. Just for arguments sake, DW plays for a run-dominant offense and has an entirely different skillset IMO, but I’ll leave it up to you if you want to keep talking about it. :OP

by legendarywalton on Nov 25, 2009 12:34 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs