Rookie Odds
by Endzone on Nov 23, 2009 7:30 PM MST
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The odds of any draft pick making an NFL career is not that great. See this article from Bleacherreport
My opinion? For what its worth:
Round 1, 12 overall — Knowshon Moreno — He is doing just fine. He needs to work on not fumbling the ball, but he has improved considerably. He will have a good career.
Round 1, 18 overall — Robert Ayers — He has contributed to this team. Sitting out one game is not cause for alarm.
Round 2, 37 overall — Alphonso Smith — A controversial pick, he will always be under the microscope. He showed early flashes of greatness and has not been the same player after he injured his ankle. It is not cause for great alarm when Ty Law, a proven multiple award-winning veteran, comes in to play. CB’s generally take more time to become impact players.
Round 2, 48 overall — Darcel McBath — Coming along nicely.
Round 2, 64 overall — Richard Quinn — His day will come if we just wait awhile.
Round 4, 114 overall — David Bruton — Coming along nicely.
Round 4, 132 overall — Seth Olsen — I have not seen much from him so I do not have an opinion.
Round 5, 141 overall — Kenny McKinley — His early career has not been good. He is a project, imo.
Round 6, 174 overall — Tom Brandstater — He looked good in the preseason.
Round 7 – 225 overall – Blake Schlueter — I’m glad we got rid of him.
CFA – Chris Baker – He made the active roster and is being brought along. While I would like to see him get more playing time, I believe he will get playing time when he is ready.
CFA – Marquez Branson – TE – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad.
CFA – Tony Carter – CB – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad. Remember though that he was kept on the squad when the team released Jack Williams .
CFA – Mitch Erickson – G – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad. But he was drafted in ’08, so it is time for him to prove himself. (much like Carlton Powell).
CFA – Kelly Braxton – LB – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad.
CFA – Everette Pedescleaux – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad injured list.
Other additions that I consider much like the draft:
Coach McDaniels – I give him a B+ thus far
Coach Nolan – I give him a B+ thus far
Coach Priefer – F (we need to dump him)
Coach Barone – C
Coach Gase – C+
Coach Donatell – B+
Coach Martindale – B
Coach Phifer – B
Brian Xanders – B+
Coaching holdovers:
Coach Turner – B
Coach Dennison – C
Some will proclaim a player a “bust” in their first 8 games. Some will proclaim a player a “superstar” in their first 8 games. I believe either extreme is unwarranted unless supported by the facts. I believe Coach Priefer, for example, is a bust. I cannot think of any rookie this year on any team that is an unqualified “superstar” regardless of where they were drafted. Finally, I believe all of our draftees still on the roster are progressing nicely.
My last point is about the team. We are, in fact, a rookie team composed of veterans and rookies. This is the first year under a new coach and composed of a LOT of new players. Our midseason slump is baffling and upsetting. Yet I am behind the team 100%. GO BRONCOS!
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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I like the coach ratings. That was an unique idea.
What grade does coach McCoy receive?
This is my favorite website.
Some good stuff and some blind homerism in this post.
“Finally, I believe all of our draftees still on the roster are progressing nicely.”
What is your evidence to back up that statement?
It can’t be Ayers as a healthy inactive yesterday or Alphonso Smith and Quinn riding pine every week.
I suppose Moreno looks better if he’d just stop this fumbling problem he has.
Other than Moreno, I don’t know how you can say any of our rookies are "progressing nicely".
An honest assessment would be that several of our rookies are not progressing as they should, especially Smith and Ayers.
This is my favorite website.
blind negativism
Both “blind” homerism and “blind” negativism are extremes. I expressed my opinion without 200 pages of facts on which that opinion is based. You attacked my honesty, which I don’t appreciate, and asserted that your opinion was the only honest opinion, which I don’t believe.
I will agree, however, that McKinley does not appear to be progressing nicely.
progressing nicely
I’ll just ask the simple question, no color commentary.
What about Ayers and Smith? What is the evidence they are “progressing nicely” Esp with Smith.
Or Olsen, Brandstater, Baker – what is the evidence they are progressing nicely?
These facts you speak of, I’m curious.
This is my favorite website.
Only Moreno?
Let’s not miss Darcel McBath. He’s tied for the team lead in ST tackles, for example. David Bruton has been invaluable on STs as well – we’re bad enough, but without those two we’d be much worse. Ayers is being sat down, but he’s also had quite a few excellent weeks (from a game-film perspective) and Don Martindale has been extremely positive about his work.
No one will ever ‘win’ this kind of argument. One group sees it as normal for rookies to have a learning curve, others disagree and demand instant success. It’s more about perspective than outcome.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Sheesh…
When a 1st round pick is a healthy inactive for Jarvis Moss… well that is a bad sign.
You know as well as I do that Jarvis Moss is not in the long term plans of McDaniels and Co. Ayers is. Something stinks.
Ayers has had excellent weeks? He has 0 sacks, 12 total tackles and 1 fumble recovery (for a TD). For a guy that has seen as much action as Ayers (until this past week that is), his stats don’t blow anyone away. Maybe being a complimentary player is the role of an OLB. But is it? Me thinks the OLBs are your play makers in the 3-4. Ayers has not been much of a playmaker so far. And do you honestly see a 3-4 OLB when you watch him or do you see a 4-3 DE? IMO, he was a curious draft pick for our new scheme.
I like McBath and Burton. I like Olsen, Bradstater, Baker and McKinley as well.
This is my favorite website.
The basic, admittedly minor, disagreement
between your post and McGeorge’s response seems to be how long before you give a player a thumbs up or down. I am more on the side EZ seems to express; give ‘em time. McG’s speculation and judgment regarding the progress of each player feels premature, although certainly his judgments (as given in his other comments, not given again in detail in detail above) are based on attentive and accurate observation. Perhaps its just the authority and forcefullness with which he pronounces his view that makes it feel like judgnment, though…. he may view this all as speculation, as I would. My style would be to give each player the right (opportunity?) to progress (not necessarily start) until they plateau for a full year or showm that thye just are not going to progress enough……then it’s “trade for what you can get or cut ’em”. But, that’s why they pay the coaches the big bucks.
I like your positivity EZ
I think that sometime we expect too much too quickly from all of the rookies. After all there were 256 players drafted this year. How many of them are superstars? In my opinion it seems to RB and LB who make the most immediate impact, but this is based on a very limited knowledge and sample size. I like the way Moreno is progressing, but am not so sure about Ayers. However, McD seems to be making all of the right noises about his progression. I think they should be evaluated at the end of next season.
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