Aussie Meanderings: The Tale of Two Teams (pre and post bye).

by boydy2669 on Nov 24, 2009 12:36 PM MST

From anger regarding the Redskins debacle, to embarrassed laughter with the capitulation against the Chargers, these Broncos we have seen for the last 4 weeks are not even remotely related to the team we saw in the first 6 weeks.

While driving my kids to school, which is over an hour round trip when the roads are dicey, gave me plenty of time to theorize about the painful play of our team.

I had come up with a theory that I wanted to prove, but I needed some evidence.....some stats that would paint a picture. Time to go to the MHR bull pen and bring in the fire power. Time to go to "the Dude".......

THE THEORY:

For any of you that watch the Simpsons, you may remember an episode that explained my C Montgomery Burns had lived along as he did. He was a perfect blend of sickness and maladies that conspired to keep him alive. He was a perfect blend of potentially bad stuff that continued to allow him live and function.

Now, my theory is not that the Broncos are all kinds of bad......not at all! My theory is that the Broncos, much in the vain of C Monty Burns, were playing great as they were designed by McDaniels to be a perfect combination of a team in PRECARIOUS balance. A team based on role players, doing their jobs perfectly.

Based on a defense that played fundamentally sound football and made plays when needed, and based on a watered down offense that would not LOSE games and score enough points to keep the defense in it.

When studied in its simplest terms, its an INSANE concept to base a team philosophy on. This is a team that is consistently living on the edge of disaster, and with one slip up by either group, plummets the team into disaster.

This would then explain the dumping of Brett Kern (who is still undefeated for the season with the Titans) and Jack Williams......any slight miscue sends off a chain reaction into oblivion!

Now, I thought this theory made sense, but I needed proof. With that in mind, I emailed TJ Johnson (Lebowski...THE DUDE) who got back to me in 5 minutes flat. Now, he wanted no kudos for my article and was generally stoked to help out a fellow MHR member, but I wanted to give him major props. HE IS A GREAT ACQUISITION TO THE TEAM AND DOES STATS, AND INTERPRETS THEM BETTER THAN THE MAJORITY OF EXPERTS. Thanks my friend.

With that, lets look into the stats:

THE HARD TRUTH:

OFFENSIVE NUMBERS -

Game	Total Yards	Pasing Yards	Rushing Yards	Points Scored
Cincinnati	302	227	75	12
Cleveland	449	263	186	27
Oakland	372	157	215	23
Dallas	337	221	116	17
New England	424	321	103	20
San Diego	328	227	101	34
Baltimore	200	134	66	7
Pittsburgh	242	215	27	10
Washington	305	185	120	17
San Diego	271	156	115	3

Average all 10 games	323.00	210.60	112.40	17.00

Average first 6 games	368.67	236.00	132.67	22.17

Average last 4 games	254.50	172.50	82.00	9.25

Variance between	(114.17)	(63.50)	(50.67)	(12.92)
6 games/ 4 games

League Average	335	219	116	21.7
(10 games)

So lets decipher these numbers, and it does not paint a picture that should fill any of us with confidence!

In TOTAL YARDS, you saw we were averaging close to 370 yards per game in the first 6 games. This is besting the league average by about 35 yards...not bad! But the last 4 games we are averaging only 254 yards...TOTAL......thats not offense, thats capitulation. We are losing 114 yards of total offense on average per game since the bye. Thats not great.

The stat that pops out of you is the ineffectiveness of the running game in the last 4 weeks. A DROP OF OVER 50 YARDS PER GAME.

In points, we were averaging just over the NFL average at 22.17 after the first 6 games. Not awesome, but the offense was doing what it had to do. The games since the bye...a WHOPPING 9.25 points per game......EERRRRRR YYUUUCCCKKKK!!!!!

So what does that mean in regards to the theory. Well, it clearly proves that the offense has "dropped the ball" and is doing nothing. Drops, fumbles, PENALTIES....a litany of problems that are hamstringing the team.

Our whole offense, as I have mentioned many times, is predicated on gaining good first down yardage with an effective run game. This run game is then SUPPOSE to put the defense into 7 or 8 in box to open up the underneath passing game. We then start making yards with the pass game, which forces the D to NOT stack the box anymore, that then opens up the run game. It relies on BOTH parts of our offense to fire. When one does not work, the other does not work. Clearly, our lack of running game has killed us.

Against San Diego, we abandoned it after going down by only 7 points. Similarly, against the Redskins we put the game in Simms hands instead of under the wing of our running game....and we saw how that all turned out!

Lets check out the other side of the theory, our defensive performance!

THE DEFENSIVE NUMBERS:


Game	Yards Given Up	Pasing Yards Given Up	Rushing Yards Given Up	Points Given Up
Cincinnati	307	221	86	7
Cleveland	200	146	54	6
Oakland	137	42	95	3
Dallas	315	241	74	10
New England	305	209	96	17
San Diego	311	238	73	23
Baltimore	292	167	125	30
Pittsburgh	375	202	173	28
Washington	388	214	174	27
San Diego	348	145	203	32

Average all 10 games	297.80	182.50	115.30	18.30

Average first 6 games	262.50	182.83	79.67	11.00

Average last 4 games	350.75	182.00	168.75	29.25

Variance Between First 6 and Last 4	(88.25)	0.83	(89.08)	(18.25)

League Average (All Teams, 10 games)*	335	219	116	21.7


*Source: Pro-Football Reference


Teams with Winning Records

As you can see, we were a VERY effective defensive unit in the first 6 weeks. We were giving u an average of only 262.5 yards per game, besting the league average by 72.5 yards. Awesome play, shutting down the run effectively giving up under 80 yards, and only allowing 182 yards thru the air.

Points allowed we really shined, giving up 11 points per game. PRETTY AWESOME!

But the last 4 weeks our defense has fallen apart at the seams! While our pass defense has stayed pretty good, we have been getting gashed in the run game. From averaging under 80 yards a game, we have given up an average of 169 yards per game……a differential of – 90!

When discussing this with TJ, he brought up a really good point. Yes, most teams are making 3-4 yards a clip…but we have been gashed for big runs in ALL 4 games, which is another problem altogether. Not only are we soft up front, but our LB’s are missing their assignments as well that are allowing opposition running backs to get into our secondary. EERILY SIMILAR TO LAST SEASON!

This defense has been built on a couple of principles: Everyone doing their job, sure tackling and gap control.

Nolan is a fantastic schemer. As has been brought up by Slow White Guy in his pre season posts, we are running a 5-2 more than a 3-4 front. But what seems to have happened is that oppositions have studied Nolan’s defense closer.

Nolan relies on his players winning individual battles in the trenches. On positive match ups that take away the oppositions strengths. Ideas like matching a nickel safety like Barrett against TE’s, using Woodyard;s speed in passing situations, and putting guys like Dumervil in positions to succeed against TE in one on one blocking match ups.

San Diego was using many 3 and 4 WR sets, yet were running the ball successfully as we had guys like WW now put in the situation of having to defend running plays. With DJ and WW being our lightest LB’s, they were getting blown up in the run game.

To counter this, we would leave bigger bodied LB’s in like Elvis, who were then matched up against players like Vincent Jackson. There was also a situation where Jarvis Moss was asked to cover Darrne Sproles. He made a great play, but these situations are going to be won by Jackson and Sproles 8 out of 10 times!

And we wonder where the blitz and pressure has gone? If we cant win the individual match ups, we cant send pressure!

SO WHERE TO NOW?

As I discussed my theory with TJ, it became more apparent that Denver has been living on the edge for the whole season. They need to many things to go right to be successful.

They have turned into a team that cant run the ball, but cant stop the run either! Not an awesome formula for success.

I do see a positive out of this. Denver now has to be more aggressive on offense. We need to put points on the board so that our D can get back to being what it is: an aggressive defense that comes after you and confuses offense with different looks.

We were winning games in the first 6 weeks because our D was dictating the game and the looks. The last 4 weeks, the opposition has been forcing the D into looks and sub sets that make us vulnerable to our weaknesses.

McD is going to have to open the offensive play book. Orton is tough, is good and can make all the throws. We have a high powered offense that, for some reason, McDaniels has put restrictor plates on. He has no other choice now. We need to come out to score points!

This offense has multiple play makers, and is very well balanced. There is no reason why we are only putting up 9 points a game in the last 4 weeks. We need to come out and be ULTRA AGGRESSIVE on both sides of the ball, play tough and go down swinging.

Me, I am now excited for the rest of the season. I am hoping that McDaniels can abandon some of his principles and go back to trying to win football games.

This is the CRUX time of Josh McDaniels coaching career. He needs to win the team back, and he needs to recognize his mistakes and make the necessary adjustments. The ball is in his court and he needs to put this team in positions to succeed again.

I know that NO ONE out there believes that the Redskins are a better team than us, and that the Chargers are 30 point better team.

I am excited to see what our team and our young coach are made of, and I am looking for a turn around.

Once again, thanks to TJ for his help with the stats, and allowing me to bounce ideas off him.

It’s a long read, but I hope you guys enjoyed it!

Peace,

Boydy.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Gotta fix the colors in your charts, but

I agree. I think right now, at this point in time, both the Chargers and the Redskins are better than us. The Chargers are much better, the Redskins only marginally so.

I still believe our football team is somewhere in the middle..between 6-0 and 0-4. This is a slightly better than .500 ball club, but the light at the end of the tunnel is that this team has improved upon the team they were last year. We just need to keep taking steps forward, not four gigantic steps backward.

A win over the Giants is a must or I don’t see this team winning more than two games the rest of the way out.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Nov 24, 2009 1:10 PM MST reply actions

Hey Zap...

The color was orange and it went to black when I pasted…any hints?
First time I used a chart in a post and i could not get to format on MHR so I had to make a word document and cut and paste!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Nov 24, 2009 1:15 PM MST up reply actions

yes & lots here to agree with ! rec'd

This is the CRUX time of Josh McDaniels coaching career…(t)he ball is in his court and he needs to put this team in position to succeed again.

this is probably the biggest problem I have with the last 4 losses. seeing other coaches call the same plays again and again and again (and again) and watching their players execute against our D, and execute well. thats just smart coaching !

the Broncos offense, on the other hand, seem to constantly be getting away from the things that work for us early in games and i just don’t (completely) understand why. on some level its just dumb coaching !

i understand that pulling Simms in favour of Orton necessarily limited how we could run the ball (from the shotgun) thanks to Mr. Bartlett’s explanation in ST&NO this morning, but it almost seems like our players are tripping up on a coaching ego sometimes. someone else called it angry coaching, and that seems an apt description.

you simply cannot convince me that our players on offense can’t do the same thing. put the players in a position to succeed ! go with what works until they stop you, and then go with it again (and again, and again, and again), and make them show you that they can consistently stop you. wear THEIR defense down for once ! its not rocket science sometimes !

everyone says you can’t run the ball when you are down by a couple of scores. to them i say watch us ! onsides kick ? some people loved that call…to me it looked weak and desperate and emotional !

our last 2 losses i blame coaching, and i’d feel a hell of a lot better if our guys would just get beat instead of beating themselves !

by Jenna Talia on Nov 24, 2009 1:10 PM MST reply actions

Same here JT

Very well said.
We better come out strong on O this weak. The Giants can’t defend the pass and haven’t gotten pressure in a long time.
They have good young receivers but we should be able to cover them BUT Kevin Boss will be a problem.
If DJ can’t take his gap then sit him down before the season is lost.

I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"

by dmitchell624 on Nov 24, 2009 3:14 PM MST up reply actions

Nice insight boydy and rec'd!

The lack of aggression on the part of the defense has puzzled me a bit. Where are the plays blowing up runners in the backfield and chasing down the QB? If indeed we are a team living on the edge then everything has to go our way to win. In losses the little things get magnified where they seem easily overcome when you’re winning. How do you get back your mojo? I believe it’s by playing in the present – this play – this series – this game – giving everything to the present and not worrying about anything that has happened before or has yet to happen. Be here now. Then you’ll be in the best position to succeed.

Imagination is more important than knowledge. A. Einstein

by Ponderosa on Nov 24, 2009 1:20 PM MST reply actions

It makes much more sense, to live, in the

Present Tense

Let’s hope McD and the rest can forgive themselves AND move forward.

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Nov 24, 2009 2:35 PM MST up reply actions

Nice piece of work boydy; rec'd

While there are glaring issues on offense the flat out timidness of the defense during the 4 game losing streak just baffles me. The current approach looks too much like the passive D’s we’ve had the last few years. The D needs to step up and take names later. I saw a Vonnie Holliday quote that he felt they’d drunk too much of the kool-aide they were being given after the first six games. They need to sober up now and play the way they did by being aggresive again……and while we’re at it let’s be aggresive on the offensive side as well. No one would expect that. Worked the first half against Wash. Okay I’ll stop before I get accused of rambling……..

"A great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do" Walter Gagenot
"Hope sees the invisible, feels the intangible and achieves the impossible."

by bchiper on Nov 24, 2009 2:01 PM MST reply actions

Exactly BChiper! We have been dictated too the last 4 weeks. We need to take charge again!

by boydy2669 on Nov 24, 2009 2:25 PM MST reply actions

I'm losing faith in McD

I think he’s been out coached he last couple of weeks. Perhaps he is not as good as I thought he was at the beginning of the year, and that scares me. To be out coached by Jim Zorn has got to be embarrassing. I think I’m embarrassed enough for two, so maybe he’s not feeling it.

He said going in to the bye that they would look at how the team was doing and if there were any adjustments needed in terms of coaching. Well, it doesn’t appear they learned anything and they don’t appear to be doing anything better. Here’s hoping that we can finish 8-8 and better than the Bears. I’m already looking forward to next year unfortunately.

This is our team, let's have fun with it! - dmitchell624
Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.

by solace on Nov 24, 2009 2:41 PM MST reply actions

On McD

I believe he’s experimenting. I think it’s a bit naive on his part though, because we’re not good enough to make up for experimentation and the results are staring us in the face in a very obvious way right now. We don’t have enough talent to be unorthodox, and if it doesn’t work, adjust and recover to still win a game. I believe he’s learning that painful lesson as we speak.

1. He did that with the man blocking he tried to have our O-line run against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Check.

When he realized his mistake, he went back to what works for Denver’s running game against Washington and the team from that city by the Mexican border. Although fumbles killed some critical drives, we were much better when we returned to our way of running the ball.

2. He needed Orton and our receivers to get accustomed to the New England offense, which is built on the “dink and dunk,” short passing system. Check.

When opposing defenses were clogging up our short routes, we were forced into a lot of 3 and outs, our offense sputtered, and our D began to get burned, not to mention gassed, as they were on the field too long. To counter, he opened the playbook a bit and notice how quickly we could score, as indicated against Washington.

3. Our punt coverage needed improvement, as Brett Kern was frequently out-kicking his coverage and opponents were able to return his punts to give their offense decent starting field position. That had to get fixed. Check.

Bringing in Mitch Berger has been somewhat controversial, but since the move, our net punt return has improved by ~3-4 yards. While he has a slow release and was punting for only about 30 yards at a time initially, he has played much better in the last 2 games and is improving just as we had hoped he would.

Don’t lose faith just yet. Remember, we can still get into the playoffs, as I believe beating the Chiefs and Raiders remains realistic. Don’t get me wrong – in the preseason, my expectation was that if this team makes the playoffs, they’ll likely be one and done, and that still has not changed. I believe we are a year away from expecting to go deep in the post-season. But nonetheless, it’s been great to see that we’ve headed in the right direction since the firing of the “Mastermind.” And the next decade should bring us more victories than defeats, especially since Mike Nolan isn’t likely to go anywhere any time soon.

Let’s see how McD and the team will rebound for the remainder of this season and what moves the coach will try to make in the offseason. Next year, this team will be more his than it’s been this year. Just enjoy the ride.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Nov 25, 2009 8:51 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs

Thanks!

And thanks to Dude for the assistance!

Please don’t ever compare Us to Mr. Burns though…. Ouch…
Just kidding ( ;

Remember that episode where Homer gets the Broncos sent to him as a gift…. Then a few NFL seasons later, we win the SB. Twice. In a row. The smack-talk never bothers me, just like all the doubt prior to the season start, then they had to eat crow, then We had to eat it…. Now it’s their turn for the remainder of the season and post-season!

Great analogy from the Simpsons though
“When they all try to get in at once…”
We’re all in at once again from here on out, hopefully
( =

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Nov 24, 2009 2:46 PM MST reply actions

Fumbles, missed plays and all the things in between.

The sandi-eggo game began to come unraveled at the onset. Simms fumble, Moreno fumble, not making a surprise onside kick, penalties on ST’s. We handed the game to them. The dolt bags came out with some swagger, but if we could of made some of those plays the outcome might have been different. We flat out beat ourselves. Thanks and boydy for the post.

by bfree2bronc on Nov 24, 2009 5:16 PM MST reply actions

Simply Beautiful mate!

You have definitely charged me up.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Nov 24, 2009 8:10 PM MST reply actions

What's with the terminology?

; P

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Nov 25, 2009 12:20 AM MST up reply actions

'charged'

Jerk….

- LoL, jk

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and someone else oughtta have a 'fair' shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Nov 25, 2009 12:23 AM MST up reply actions

LMAO!

Didn’t mean to be so Punny!

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Nov 25, 2009 12:30 AM MST up reply actions

You need to be heard inside the Broncos locker room mate!

I mentioned this in another post where I stated that there is a working theory out there at the moment. It is based on the recent player acquisitions: Brett Kern and Jack Williams.

Some believe that by replacing them with Mitch Berger and Ty Law while the team was winning, that effectively sent the wrong message to the rest of the guys in the locker room. It’s as if the message delivered by the coach was “I know we’re winning and you guys are doing the best that you can do, but it is not good enough.”

So, the result is, that players are out to make plays for themselves, rather than do what’s best for their unit. They’re trying to anticipate, rather than force the issue on D. They’re trying to brake away for a big gain on the ground, rather than take what the defense is giving them. They may be trying to do too much, and thus are no longer disciplined.

Whether that is true or not is now irrelevant. Because the only success this team had was when they were playing selfless football. Hopefully, with leaders like Holliday calling them out this past Sunday, and the fact that no one is believing in them again, this will feel enough like the offseason, to make them angry, focused, and out to prove themselves.

The first 6 games were no fluke. The Broncos proved they were a good team and can recover from this slide still. If I could send a message to the team, it would be that it’s time to rise from the ashes and go back to playing with a purpose again.

They need some high-octane fuel in their gas tank.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Nov 24, 2009 10:52 PM MST reply actions 1 recs