Brad's NFL Picks - Week Twelve - 2009

Brad's Picks was 12-4 last week. Here's the good and the bad from that:

     the good:

Detroit 38, Browns 37 - Rookie QB Matt Stafford threw for 5 touchdowns for the Lions Brady Quinn threw 4 for the Browns.

New York Giants 34, Falcons 31 (OT) - It was Giants 31, Falcons 17 early in the 4th quarter.

Dallas 7, Redskins 6 - Dallas finally scored with 2:41 left in the game.

Green Bay 30, Forty Niners 24 - Packers led 23-3 at the half.

Colts 17, Baltimore 15 - Baltimore could have kicked a go-ahead FG with under three minutes left, but tried a pass instead which was picked off by the Colts.

Saints 38, Tampa Bay 7 - It was Tampa 7, Saints 0 late in the first quarter.

Jacksonville 18, Bills 15 - David Garrard threw a TD with 56 seconds left for the win.

Minnesota 35, Seahawks 9 - Brett Favre was 22-25-0-217 and 4 TD's.

Cardinals 21, St. Louis 13 - Cardinals 21, Rams 6 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

New England 31, Jets 14 - Mark Sanchez threw to the Patriots 4 times.

Chargers 32, Denver 3 - Broncos showed a few flashes but got whupped at Mile High.

Eagles 24, Chicago 20 (SNF) - Bears actually won the turnover battle by two.

     the bad:

Dolphins 24, Carolina 17 (TNF) - Dolphins were able to run the ball without Ronnie Brown.

Kansas City 27, Steelers 24 (OT) - Tens of thousands of Steeler fans at Arrowhead had to fly home crying in their towels.

Oakland 20, Bengals 17 - Bruce Gradkowski threw a 29 yard TD to tie the game for the Raiders with 33 seconds remaining. Then Andre Caldwell fumbled the kickoff and Janikowski kicked a 33 yard FG. Another last second loss for the Bengals to an AFC West team.

Titans 20, Houston 17 (MNF) - A 53 yard FG with seconds remaining gave the Titans their 4th consecutive win.

     Brad's Picks is 115-45 on the season. Last week it was AFC 1, NFC 1, so on the season it's AFC 22, NFC 18. Home teams were 9-7 last week. On the season, Home teams have won 91 times, Visitors have won 69 times.

     this week: Ten of the sixteen games are division games. Should be interesting.

     the Thursday games:

     the 10:30 MST game:

Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8) - Division game. Packers have played two solid games lately. Lions rookie QB Matt Stafford was tremendous last week, but both he and WR Calvin Johnson are probably out for this game.

     the 2:15 MST game:

Oakland (3-7) at Dallas (7-3) - Tony Romo has a sore back and TE Jason Witten has a sprained foot. Cowboys have scored just 14 points in the last two games. The first of those two TD's was with 38 seconds left in a 17-7 loss at Green Bay. Raiders have given up just 8 passing TD's all year. If the Raiders can shut down the pass, they can maybe stop the run also. Bruce Gradkowski was 17-34-1-183 with two TD's last week against the Bengals. Romo and Witten are expected to play, but how well? Take the Raiders in an upset?

     the 6:20 MST game:

New York Giants (6-4) at Denver (6-4) - Giants and Broncos both started strong, then lost 4 in a row. Giants stopped their skid last week with an OT win over the Falcons, while the Broncos got stomped at home by the Chargers. But Kyle Orton looked good last week, after Chris Simms did not. Weather should be perfect for football. Both teams have had their problems in the 4th quarter so don't let the turkey put you to sleep. Giants have to fly to Mile High on a short week, and I'll take the Broncos.

     the 11:00 Sunday games:

Miami (5-5) at Buffalo (3-7) - Division game. Weather will be brisk but not bad for the fair weather Fins. A bit of a toss up here - Bills played good last week against a hot Jacksonville team, and the Dolphins played well against a hot Carolina team. I see the Dolphins winning the game.

Carolina (4-6) at New York Jets (4-6) - Panthers only gave the ball to DeAngelo Williams 13 times last week, but he still gained 122 yards against the Dolphins. I'm looking for Williams and Stewart to pound it against a depleted Jets D. Take the Panthers.

Seattle (3-7) at St. Louis (1-9) - Division game. I'd take the Rams here, but QB Marc Bulger is out (3-6 weeks with a broken fibula), so I'll take the Seahawks even though they only managed two first downs in the first 40 minutes at Minnesota last week.

Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5) - Division game. Atlanta played tough at New York last week, while Tampa played soft at home against the Saints. Take Atlanta at home.

Undianopolis (10-0) at Houston (5-5) - Division game. Houston lost at Undee in Week Nine 20-17. Colts have won their last four games by a total of 10 points. I'm taking Houston.

Cleveland (1-9) at Cincinnati (7-3) - Division game. Bengals lost at Oakland last week and will take it out on the Browns.

Washington (3-7) at Philadelphia (6-4) - Division game. Take the Eagles at home.

     the 2:05 MST games:

Kansas City (3-7) at San Diego (7-3) - Division game. After the Chiefs' impressive win over the Steelers at Arrowhead, I'd like to pick them here. But the Chargers' win at Mile High was very impressive also, and they are still the team to beat in the AFC West.

Jacksonville (6-4) at San Francisco (4-6) - Jags have won five of their last six games. Weather in San Francisco should be sunny and beautiful - I wish I could be there. Niners have been playing hard and I'll call this one their way - Jags have a long trip to get there.

     the 2:15 MST games:

Arizona (7-3) at Tennessee (4-6) - Titans have won 4 in a row with Vince Young at QB. Young is playing within himself (he's completed over 60% of his passes the last four games), and I think they'll make it 5 in a row. Chris Johnson has 1,242 yards on the season and is now on pace for 1,987 yards on the season. Cards don't really need this game - they've just about wrapped up their division and this is an intra-conference game, and it's a long flight and the Titans are pretty hot and are at home.

Chicago (4-6) at Minnesota (9-1) - Division game. One of the few easy calls this week. Vikings.

the SNF game:

Pittsburgh (6-4) at Baltimore (5-5) - Division game. Ben R suffered a concussion last week late in the game, then his back up, Charlie Batch, promptly got his wrist broken. Ben has passed all his tests and will start. His backup will be Dennis Dixon, a 5th round pick out of Oregon in 08. The good news is that he has a 100% completion rate in the NFL. The bad news is that he's only thrown one pass. Steelers really haven't been playing that well, giving up a lot of points on turnovers and returns, and Troy Polamalu probably won't play. I'm taking the Ravens.

     the MNF game:

New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0) - Saints are firing on all cylinders, and are finding new ones to fire on.