Second Broncos Mock Draft, with a Projected Trade
The Denver Broncos are fresh off of their biggest victory of the season, defeating the New York Giants 26-6 on Thanksgiving night.
In light of that victory, it's time for a new mock draft.
My last draft segment had the Broncos taking Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, and I have since realized that taking Bradford will be all but impossible unless the Broncos trade up, which is something they simply cannot afford to do.
The Broncos have only five picks going into this draft, and they will likely try to move down on draft day unless a "can't miss" prospect falls into their laps.
Certainly it will be hard to pass on a guy like Rolando McClain, the star middle linebacker from Alabama, but the Broncos have to.
One interesting scenario would be for Josh McDaniels to go back to his New England roots and strike a deal with Bill Belicheck and the Patriots, who are armed with three second round picks.
The Chicago Bears are reeling right now, and the pick that they are sending to the Broncos is likely to be in the top 15 at the very worst. They currently have a record of 4-6, and still have two games left against division leader Minnesota.
In all likelihood, the Bears will finish the season with eight losses or more, putting the Broncos in very good position for a high draft pick.
How does this all come together?
The Broncos could choose to trade down to New England's pick by giving up a prospect like Florida's Carlos Dunlap, who could fill in for the Pats' departed Richard Seymour. New England would be able to move up to, let's say pick number 10, and the Broncos would move down to pick 27.
Moving down 17 picks is a huge discrepancy in the NFL Draft, and the trade value chart is often a good depiction of how much a team is willing to give up.
The 10th overall pick is worth 1,300 points on the trade value chart, and the 27th pick is only worth 680. The Patriots would likely include both of their late second round picks to account for the difference in points.
The Patriots hold Jacksonville's pick, which is currently projected at 22nd and worth 360 points in the second round. New England's pick is worth 300, and the difference would be 40 points—essentially nothing.
Armed with three second round picks, the Broncos really would be in business.
In this projected sequence, they hold the 27th, 54th, 56th, and 60th picks in the first two rounds of the draft.
At this point, Broncos fans are salivating.
Here's how I would spend those picks if I were Josh McDaniels and the rest of the Broncos' brass.
First Round, 27th overall: Colt McCoy, Quarterback, Texas
I love his intangibles and leadership as a quarterback prospect. He has a much better arm than he's given credit for and he is extremely accurate with his throws. If you missed the Texas-Texas A&M game, then you missed out on just how mobile this kid really is. He is a phenomenal athlete.
Second Round, 54th overall: Javier Arenas, Cornerback, Alabama
Extremely versatile player, might not last to this pick. He is an elite-level return man, and is more than just a good cover corner with excellent speed. He has five sacks in his senior season, and is also a phenomenal tackler. If he were a couple inches taller, he would be a top-20 pick.
Second Round, 56th overall: Corey Wootton, Defensive End, Northwestern
Wootton is a versatile defensive lineman, who could potentially be the best five technique available in the draft. He excels in stopping the run, but also gets a solid push in the passing game. He is athletic enough to stand up in the 3-4 or put his hand in the ground.
Second Round, 60th overall: Jerry Hughes, Defensive End/Outside Linebacker, TCU
Hughes is an elite pass rusher who has really gone under the radar. He reminds me a lot of current Bronco Elvis Dumervil, though Hughes is a couple of inches taller. He is a phenomenal tackler who would transition well to the 3-4 defensive scheme, and he would add great depth to the Broncos' linebacker core.
Third Round, 88th overall: Jordan Shipley, Wide Receiver, Texas
The Broncos' wide receivers are a fairly elite group as it currently stands, but Brandon Stokley is aging, and why not give first round pick Colt McCoy his favorite college target at the next level? Shipley is an intelligent receiver with deceptive speed, and he is also an asset in the return game.
Fourth Round, 120th overall: Eric Olsen, Offensive Lineman, Notre Dame
Again, here is some more versatility, which the Broncos' coaching staff loves. Olsen started last season as an offensive guard, and has been the center for the Fighting Irish in 2009. He would be an ideal pickup for the Broncos at this point in the draft, as he adds both size and versatility to the interior of the line.
No Fifth Round Selections
Sixth Round, 184th overall: Dexter McCluster, Running Back, Ole Miss
McCluster is Darren Sproles version 2.0. He is a small back with blazing speed who does virtually everything well. He has excellent hands out of the backfield and would be a great weapon in the passing game for the Broncos.
Knowshon Moreno is the Broncos' power back, and Correll Buckhalter has obviously lost a step or two. McCluster would be a nice addition.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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I really can't see McD taking a QB
Orton is the answer for the next 5+ years in my opinion….
I too dabbled in pacifism once...
by waltersobchakbronco on Nov 27, 2009 4:21 PM MST reply actions 2 recs
Ouch...
Not that Orton isn’t serviceable, but I totally disagree.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 4:49 PM MST up reply actions
agreed
orton just keeps getting better the more he learns the system. I’d hate to start that over with a new QB because orton’s playing very good football now and only getting more comfortable with the offense.
by bailey disciple on Nov 27, 2009 6:37 PM MST up reply actions
It's worth considering...
That starting over with a rookie QB who has to take another 2 years to learn and to perform within the system may not be in our best interests.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Not a QB
Orton is the answer for years to come. Not a rookie QB. Besides, Brandstater could be a good QB as well, and the guy to give Orton a run for the starting spot.
Talk is for Losers and Fools.
by Victim of Love on Nov 30, 2009 7:53 AM MST up reply actions
Sayre,
Do you know anything about the QB from Oregon State? Someone posted a Denver Mock in the Broncos section of Football’s Future(if you aren’t on that site, you should check it out), and they had us drafting him. The guy said that he can be a franchise QB.
Sean Canfield
He certainly looks the part at 6’4" 220. He actually looks bigger in the pictures I’ve seen of him. Here in SD, we don’t get a lot of Beaver football, so I’ll have to watch him in the Pac-10 championship and Rose Bowl or wherever they get. Looks like he’s had a pretty average career at best at Oregon State, though that school is more known for running the ball if memory serves me right. NFLDraftScout.com likes him right now, they have him as a rising 3-4 round prospect. He’s a lefty, so Harris would be his main guy there on the offensive line. I’ll need to see more from him, but yeah he definitely looks the part.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 5:12 PM MST up reply actions
I still think you are vastly underrating Wootten's draft position.
Talent, metrics, consistency, injuries— all that aside— look what “potentially be[ing] the best five technique available in the draft” did for Tyson Jackson. I don’t think its a reach to suggest that Wootten is a far more dynamic player with much more upside than Jackson. Unless he bombs in the evaluation bowls or combine, I don’t see how he falls out of the first round.
by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 27, 2009 5:14 PM MST reply actions
Five Tech
The reason I say he could “potentially” be the best five technique is because as per right now, he is vastly undersized for that position. about 25 pounds, in fact. I think he is a great player, but he has missed significant injury time recently. He could easily fall to the second round especially as deep as this draft is.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 5:19 PM MST up reply actions
Doesn't he versatility make him more attractive?
In other words, if he can project to either 3-4 (grow ‘im into a five) or is prototypical for a 4-3, doesn’t that improve his stock even more? I’m not trying to project the player he’s going to be— but rather his attractiveness to teams. There seems to be a very high value placed on DE’s, no matter the scheme, and with Wootten’s metrics, he seems to be a player that typically draws a lot of interest.
by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 27, 2009 5:42 PM MST up reply actions
Injuries and skill set
He is a second round grade, in my eyes, because his skill set is one-dimensional at the moment and his injury is minor cause for concern. He’s not a freak athlete. Sure, he can do a lot of different things for a defense, but his main forte is stopping the run. He’s not an elite pass rusher, and never really has been. You may be right though, we’ll just have to wait and see.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:31 PM MST up reply actions
re: Wootton
I loved Wootton before his injury. And I have to agree with PredominantlyOrange that his versatility — besides other things — marks him as a highly appropriate player for our system.
Wootton’s stock took a nose dive this season as did his performance. His injury in last year’s Alamo Bowl required longer to heal from than he had given, and it showed in his early season performances. Since about mid-season, however, he’s shown some flashes of his old self, and his stock has begun to rise and his performance in the Combine may make him into a coveted prospect again. He won’t reclaim his previous standing but his growing sack total has changed the minds of many who had written him off this because of his injury.
There’s going to be disclaimers on Wootton until he passes medical exams at the combine and shows teams that he’s fully (or nearly) recovered. It will also help to see an official weight (and height, although nobody questions whether he’s tall) since he’s listed at an overly round number of 280.
If he continues to progress, it’s going to be hard for teams to pass on someone who reminds of Julius Peppers. Wootton can always add weight but it’s impossible to add his athletic ability to a bigger player. My guess is he’ll be gone by the end of 1st/2nd cusp, and that’s even if we have an unusually large contingent of declarees. I admit to being highly prejudiced in his favor but I was very impressed by his defensive playmaking ability prior to his injury.
One question remaining is whether he’s suitable for our 3-4 scheme. He’ll have to add to add more weight (or course) but he’d definitely be worth grooming until he did. Currently he’s a DE43 somatotype because of his lack of bulk. I don’t see that as an impediment if he’s primarily used situationally earlier in his career (in a 3-4). The only problem I foresee is finding him available when we pick. I doubt he’s worth our 1st ( ~#10) and it’s unlikely that he’ll be on the board at our current position in the 2nd. I certainly hope we can arrange some type of trade for picks but I doubt that anyone is willing to offer as much as the #54, #56 & #60 in exchange for swapping 1st round picks. That type of scenario would depend on someone else initiating the trade talks because there’s a prospect they’re willing to give up points in order to get. I believe the trade value chart creates a false equivalence here.
no goats, no glory.
Be careful
Comparing him to Julius Peppers is a HUGE stretch, IMO. I watched him play against my Hawkeyes this year, and though he made some big plays, he’s not a freak athletically. He is capable of playing multiple positions, yes, but does he get a first round grade? Probably not.
And as to the trade projection, we held the 56th pick already with our own pick. The 54th is one the Pats have acquired from Jacksonville, and the 60th is their own. They still would have a high-mid second round pick courtesy of the Tennessee Titans.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 28, 2009 8:26 PM MST up reply actions
yes, a stretch on ability
He’s the same size and build (i.e, “reminds of”). And I’m also probably more hopeful for him than you and far less enthusiastic about Peppers than most people. I wouldn’t pretend that a rookie — especially one who’s currently rated as a 2nd round pick by most people — would surpass a highly rated veteran right now. Down the road Wootton may show as a star though.
I also went through after writing the last post and looked at the suggested trade and noticed the actual trade terms. One less 2nd does make it much more reasonable.
I still have some doubts but I’ll admit that it’s not implausible.
I posted a topic a year ago in which I suggested trading our entire draft for picks in the late 2nd (which is impossible to do), just to make the point that everyone should want to move into that section of the draft because it’s an optimal range.
What’s problematic about this type of topic is that a lot of the picks seem to be artificially lowered in their projected draft slot — the cherry-picking problem. I prefer MOCKs that obey certain constraints because it makes it a more realistic exercise.
Here’s where DraftTek has all these picks:
Colt McCoy – #12 V. #27
Javier Arenas – #90 V. #54
Corey Wootton – #27 V. #56
Jerry Hughes – #22 V. #60
Jordan Shipley – #69 V. #88
Eric Olsen – #219 V. #120
NO PICK
Dexter McCluster – #129 V. #184
ANOTHER PICK REMAINING IN 7th
It’s not that I dislike your picks, and I even share your relative enthusiasm when DraftTek doesn’t (e.g., Arenas, Olsen), but it’s hard to believe that DraftTek’s higher rating on most of these prospects isn’t the more accurate appraisal. Many of the players selected in your MOCK wouldn’t be available according the DraftTek rankings. A MOCK that greatly deviates from reasonable rankings has a pie-in-the-sky quality since it could never actually come true.
no goats, no glory.
What?
What in the world makes that site’s predictions any more accurate than mine? Maybe they will hook me up with their crystal ball.
I think a mock draft at this point, or any point, is wishful thinking in some way, shape, or form. That’s just flat out disrespect, saying that someone else’s predictions, especially at this point, are any more accurate than mine.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 29, 2009 12:32 AM MST up reply actions
Colinski
One question remaining is whether he’s suitable for our 3-4 scheme. He’ll have to add to add more weight (or course) but he’d definitely be worth grooming until he did. Currently he’s a DE43 somatotype because of his lack of bulk
Interesting point – is it possible that he would be able to move into an Ayers-like role? While we have some very good OLBs, the idea of his strengths matching against Ayers, Doom, Haggan and Reid is interesting.
I’ve seen Ayers, young as he is, lined up as and OLB (R+L), DE and even DT/NT on different plays. Could Wooton provide a similar ability? If so, the next question, inevitably, becomes, is that our greatest need? That one may confound a lot of options, but Wooton’s versatility could trump some other choices.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Highly doubt Denver takes a QB in a high round
Particularly with the questions surround each “top” prospect eg. Colt McCoy (arm strength; watch his deep throws and you’ll understand, he’s not Brees in that department), Tim Tebow (can his wind-up and release point be fixed), Sam Bradford (can he produce w/out elite talent and stay healthy?), Jimmy Clausen (Attitude? (Cutler v. 2.0) Accuracy?) Jake Locker (competition, evaluation when playing with much lesser talents), Jevan Snead (Where’s the production to match talents?).
To be perfectly honest I would prefer “lesser” QB prospects this year like a Tony Pike (my choice this year), Sean Canfield, Case Keenum and Dan LeFevour(def. not enough pub.), because they all have similar questions as higher rated QBs, they just cost less.
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
or..
Andy Dalton
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 9:01 PM MST up reply actions
I have no problem
I have no issue with any of the QB prospects you suggested. You want to question Colt’s arm strength though, and you had better take Tony Pike off your list. Colt can make any NFL throw, and that’s a guarantee. Whether he succeeds at the next level or not depends on his coaching, and I believe he would work well with McDaniels.
I like Canfield out of Oregon State, right? He has the prototype size but hasn’t done much in college. Case Keenum could be a solid prospect, but his numbers are over inflated much like a Texas Tech QB’s would be.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:33 PM MST up reply actions
on the subject of the texas Vs. A&M game,
the QB who impressed me more was Jerrod Johnson of A&M. I’d rather wait until next year and pick him up than get McCoy. Johnson went shot for shot with McCoy for most of the game and has much lesser talent around him (or at least much less developed talent — a lot of the A&M skill position players were freshmen and sophmores).
by bailey disciple on Nov 27, 2009 6:42 PM MST reply actions
I disagree
Johnson was stellar, but McCoy had the better game, no doubt. Four TD passes, 300 yards passing, over 175 rushing yards and another score, and the W. I always find it interesting why people criticize quarterbacks for doing well with good talent around them. It’s a little odd to me. In the NFL, he will have 52 of the best college athletes around him.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:35 PM MST up reply actions
we will not take a QB early in the draft
The broncos still have a lot of dead money to pay for. We also have TWO really big players that we need to resign,NOW! Bmarsh and Doom are more important to this teams future than some overrated QB. Im happy with Orton and Im sure McD is also.
live and die blue and orange
Dead money
Why does that have anything to do with who we draft in the first round? We can still sign both Brandon Marshall and Dumervil, but your rationale for not drafting a QB is flawed and a little silly.
Really? You are happy with 12 touchdown passes when we have Marshall, Royal, Stokley, Scheffler, Graham, Moreno, Hillis, Quinn, Buckhalter, Gaffney, etc.?
I don’t buy it.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:37 PM MST up reply actions
I don't care about the 12 TD passes, personally.
I care about 7-2 when he plays the whole game.
"In the topsy-turvy world of heavy rock, having a good solid piece of wood in your hand is often useful." -Ian Faith
by papigrande on Nov 28, 2009 4:30 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Why QB early?
We are not in a dire need for a QB. And OL is a bigger hole then 4th round you project. Casey will be done soon, maybe even after this season – and we whiffed on Centers 2 years in a row. Trade down, yes, I can see that. And then pick up a C/OG in 2nd.
Why OL early?
Offensive line is our biggest strength. Don’t forget that we’re missing Ryan Harris right now. Russ Hochstein has done a very good job. Casey Wiegmann will need to be replaced, but he JUST signed a new deal and will start next year anyway. Just so you know, the center class of 2011 features two or three first round prospects, and the top center prospect in this draft grades out as MAYBE a third round pick.
Seth Olsen is our guard of the future. I have said it so many times I am starting to wonder how so many knowledgeable Bronco fans have forgotten about him.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:40 PM MST up reply actions
Disagree with your assessment on the current OL
That is part of the problem with scoring TDs in close.
I learned something important this year
McD and Z look for things that don’t show up on highlight reels. I’ll defer to your wish lists and wait to be totally surprised and baffeled by the way the draft works. Do agree on the trade for lower picks – very possible that he may decide to cascade down, picking up additional picks as we slide.
Thanks
I think trading down is essential unless someone happens to fall to us who never should have. This is a deep draft, and we need to take advantage.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:40 PM MST up reply actions
I love the Dexter McCluster pick...the dude is a beast.
But, I don’t know if he will fall to the sixth round. I saw that he was projected to go in the third round. The QB pick befuddles me. But if the Broncos do pick up a QB in the first round, then I will trust in the staff’s decisions.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
He could
It depends on the team. He is vastly undersized and doesn’t have a set position. He is a great athlete. I think the Chargers got Sproles, who was more productive in college, in the fourth or fifth round.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:41 PM MST up reply actions
I like the players you pick
However, I would like a better interior o-lineman in the early rounds. I’d also like to nab a top 3-4 end because Kenny Peterson isn’t going to get a whole lot younger and you can never have enough good defensive linemen. In your scenario, we’d be in a prime position to take Cameron Heyward of Ohio State, and I think he is a player who could excel in a 3-4.
I also agree with you about Stokley getting older and needing to be replaced. I also believe that our offense has a supreme need for a top-level deep threat. A guy I love at the wide receiver position is Golden Tate from Notre Dame. He is very fast and very consistent. He can stretch the field vertically and make those Stokley-ish catches over the middle for 8 yards.
With our second second-round pick, I think we should address the OL position. I like Mike Johnson from Alabama here because he is an excellent guard and can also play tackle. He’s like a much more talented version of Russ Hochstein.
"In the topsy-turvy world of heavy rock, having a good solid piece of wood in your hand is often useful." -Ian Faith
In regards to Stokley's "replacement".
Seems to be 2 different sides.
#1. a slot reciever replacement for stokley
#2. a #2 (I want a tall fast WR to stretch the field, al la Taylor Price/ Ohio) and Eddie Royal to switch to the slot position.
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 9:08 PM MST up reply actions
Stokes replacement
With Eddie Royal, and with the additions of Gaffney and McKinley, who should be contributing next year if there is room, we seem to be in pretty good shape, McKinley may not be physically imposing, but his route-running is excellent and his speed is very good:
Combine Results:
40 Yard Dash : 4.44 seconds
Vertical Jump : 37.0 inches
Broad Jump : 113.0 inches
3 Cone Drill : 6.96 seconds
20 Yard Shuttle : 4.1 seconds
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
True
McKinley has to get on the field this year too. I thought he looked good in the preseason, but our clear lack of talent at the QB position has made our receiving threats ineffective, for the most part. Take a gander at Eddie Royal’s numbers this year.
Orton is efficient, but he is not capable of throwing 35-40 passes a week, which the Broncos should be doing with all of their targets. If he is capable, then we are wasting a lot of talent on the outside.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:45 PM MST up reply actions
Why can't he throw 35 times?
He has, and he’s won doing so. Not to quibble, but I think that you’ve ignored the basis of the Broncos offense. It’s a ball-control, short passing offense that uses both the short pass and the run to control the clock. It’s not a Coryell-based vertical approach, but is far more similar to the Walsh-based attack while still stretching the field vertically (something that we’re increasingly doing. The first of Marshall’s circus catches was a go route).
If a QB is efficient, why can’t he be efficient on 35 passes? We’re not wasting talent, Sayre, we’re just running a different offense than the one you seem to feel that we should be. Is that, perhaps, at the basis of this debate?
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Thanks
I’ll save you a draft pick and point out a guy on the team: Iowa guard/tackle Seth Olsen. He already plays for us, and he is the long-term replacement at LG.
Top 3-4 end is Corey Wootton, hopefully. He would need to add weight.
I like Golden Tate as well, but I think Shipley may be a better value in the third round.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:43 PM MST up reply actions
I'll take your draft...
But trade out Colt for Spikes…
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 9:02 PM MST reply actions
Interesting thought there
It is likely that Spikes will last until the late first round, I would also rather take him than McCoy. To me, McClain is better than Spikes, but only by a shade. So getting Spikes would be great, would fill a need, and would be (relatively) on the cheap.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 27, 2009 9:04 PM MST up reply actions
Spikes vs. McClain
McD has been up front about preferring larger players. Since spikes has McClain by 10 lbs, does that matter? Just a question for interests sake.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
newer measurements
have them both at 258 lbs. McClain has a slight edge in height at 6’4 v. Spikes’ 6’3.
no goats, no glory.
Thanks, Colinski
That’s good to know. There will be endless debate on who is ‘better’ – I tend to shy away from character problems and I worry there with Spikes. That doesn’t mean that I value his play less, just that if another player matches up in skillset, I’ll take the one who grades out with the best leadership qualities.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Sure, he prefers larger
But he prefers versatile and smart more. Both are smart — maybe a slight edge to Spikes there (more experience). McClain gets a slight edge on versatility — better in coverage, better at getting to the edge/roaming the middle. Scheme fit (I think) goes solidly to McClain: already playing in a 3-4, has the speed to excel in a 5-2 look.
Honestly, with DJ already in at MLB, I don’t really know whether Spikes or McClain is a better complement. Given that Davis is currently starting there, it might be Spikes. I don’t know.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 29, 2009 9:39 AM MST up reply actions
re: Emmit & S as a T's comments on McClain
The reason some people (may) favor Spikes is familiarity. McClain wasn’t discussed last year because he wasn’t eligible for the draft yet. It’s not that McClain wasn’t well-known in SEC circles, though.
Spikes’ stock went so high last year that it’s hard to believe there’s someone as good, but McClain has surpassed Spikes slightly at every stage of his career . The experience edge that would normally favor Spikes could be turned on its head — McClain has greater potential in the long run, besides being as good as Spikes is right now.
Let me reiterate and expand on some points I’ve made previously — MLBs aren’t in demand (partly) because of their limitations as 2-down players. OLBs are still in demand, but this is (partly) because they provide an impact contribution as pass rushers.
McClain is versatile enough to play outside, thus filling the pass rusher role, but he’s also apparently not limited in pass coverage, thus qualifying as a 3-down player.
It’s not so much a question of his native position, though. Many teams are overloading the interior lately in an attempt to collapse the pocket, so McClain could still hold great value if he shows an ability to blitz from the ILB position. This is a significant question.
McClain’s versatility and projected draft slot make him a strong possibility for us. Moreover, our future at ILB is unsettled even though I like our present group of Williams, Davis, Woodyard and Larsen. McClain could add a more complete player to that group while concomitantly contributing a pass rusher to the mix at OLB. The team can’t afford, nor justify, keeping Moss next year unless he shows dramatic improvement so there should be room for (at least) one more LB. And providing some pass rush is going to be identified as a priority ( IMO ) in the year-end review.
The situation looks a lot like last year. Our needs were clear but there weren’t many candidates who fit scheme-wise in addition to being low risk, impact players (besides the aforementioned criteria). McClain looks like a Knowshon Moreno type of pick. It would be nice if some of the DE34s were worthy of a pick at this point but most of them look like a reach this early (~ #10). And, much like last year, finding a quality defensive player who’s worth paying that much and can fill a need for us is looking difficult.
Strangely, Chicago’s poor record has created a dilemma for us because of the unexpected earliness of their pick. And once again, like last year, we’d once again be well-served if we could convert that high pick into an equivalent value of slightly lower picks.
NOTE: juniors will declare on Jan. 15, so it’s possible that McClain will stay in school.
no goats, no glory.
Interestingly
The pick I have us trading down to at 27 is where Scouts Inc. rates Spikes. I would love to have him.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:46 PM MST up reply actions
One area where we're in full agreement ;-)
I love the leadership that Davis has brought and overall, he’s played well this year but he’s slower than we would prefer and age will soon be a bigger problem. Spikes would potentially solidify the middle for years. Obviously, I don’t have any info as to his IPS and there are some character concerns, so I’m open to other options, but from a sheer ability viewpoint, you can’t help but be interested in that young man. Talented guy.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
A note on Spikes:
Hell yes. With DJ struggling a bit and Davis getting older, we’re going to need a new MLB sooner than later. And Spikes is an animal.
"In the topsy-turvy world of heavy rock, having a good solid piece of wood in your hand is often useful." -Ian Faith
I think that papi was talking about during the loss streak
No MLB needed though = it’s ILB, and the requirements are a little different. DJ looked great against NY but made quite a few errors during the losses. Almost everyone graded lower when they lost.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
We have no idea what McD looks for in a QB
Recently, McD was asked about drafting a college QB. His response was that it depended on how long it would take to fix his mechanics so he could play in the NFL. Since very few of us, if any, know what he is looking for in QB mechanics there is no way to speculate his choice of QBs. I was so burned in last years draft by his choices (only got Knowshon right) I really hazard to guess what his draft board will look like. But love your post and love to speculate.
I don't know...
…a lot of rookies are playing prominent roles. I think its way too early to put a stamp on who hit and who missed. Take Ayers. Everybody seems to think he ought to be a sack machine by now, or that because he isn’t he’s a disappointment, but they aren’t even asking him to do that most of the time He’s usually stacking the edge on running plays and containing the pocket on pass plays. He managed a few good pressures last night. I think he’s playing his role very nicely, and better yet, very unselfishly. Bruton and McBath have been excellent on special teams. Smith is typical of almost every young corner— lost at times and learning. The only obvious miss in the ’09 draft at this point is Schuelter.
by PredominantlyOrange on Nov 27, 2009 9:22 PM MST up reply actions
Really?:
Take a look at the QB’s on our roster right now. They all have different skills, different weaknesses, different deliveries, different tendencies, different everything. Who is to say Colt McCoy is not what he is looking for?
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:47 PM MST up reply actions
Because.........
I look at a former Texas QB (Chris Simms) and think how many BIG games has McCoy won? Is he getting his team to play over their heads? I agree that he is surrounded by good talent, so, does that make him better than he is at that level?
Orton is an overachiever, and gets those around him to do the same, whereas Jay (The Interception Machine) Cutler did not, and in Chicago he is doing the same.
So…..for those reasons I will take Orton. No to McCoy, Tebow, and any QB in the 1st round.
Make those miracles happen - Jon Keyworth
by IgorBStrange on Nov 28, 2009 12:01 AM MST up reply actions
Don't want to start a discussion, I'm just curious what your thinking is
Orton is polarizing; we’ve all pretty much made up our minds about him one way or the other. I don’t think he’s the second coming of Drew Brees, but with his OBVIOUS improvement in a very short time over his Chicago days and the strong likelihood that he can improve still more, besides with the Brandstater pick last year, I feel that we are set at QB for the next 3 years at least — possibly the foreseeable future (assuming the resign price on Orton is right). That’s my position: you aren’t likely to change it.
I’m not likely to change your mind, but it’s always good to know what others see/believe. So, can you please tell me why you think that with all I just mentioned we need a 1st-round QB? It’s obvious that it is the position, not the player that intrigues you (you picked Bradford in your last mock). Why? I don’t see it in the slightest.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 27, 2009 9:09 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I think we'll draft another QB
If you go by what NE does, they always have 3 QBs. I beleive Simms will be out, and we’ll draft another later round QB to groom. Which to me is a wonderfull idea. have 2 rookies/younger QBs, if one doesn’t pan out in the future, you have another one, which increases the chances of having a good replacement QB if/when the time is right.
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 9:12 PM MST up reply actions
Sorry didn't finish.
But I agree… I don’t see a 1st round QB being drafted. I always felt like a 1st round high draft pick QB is one of 2 things.
#1. a Desperation move by a poor poor team. (Happens the most)
- Horrible idea as nothing will ruin a QB faster than being on a piss poor team with no other good players. Theres a reason your 0-16, and it’s usually not all on the QB you just overspent for.
#2. a Luxury pick.
- This I believe a team like NE can do if they so desire.
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 9:15 PM MST up reply actions
Orton's improvement
He has vastly underachieved given the amount of talent around him. He is slow to make reads on deep routes, which often results in a sack, which is why so many of you think we need help along the offensive line. Orton is a fine player, who is efficient enough to play in this league, but he either isn’t capable of putting a team on his shoulders or McDaniels isn’t letting him. Clearly, McDaniels doesn’t trust him enough to let him sling the ball to our top group of targets 35-40 times a week. If it’s not the fault of McDaniels, then Orton simply isn’t talented enough for the long term.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:50 PM MST up reply actions
The only thing I might counter with Sayre
Is that too many of our drives have had penalties and other issues that have slowed them down.
We have not been consistent in our execution.
To grade Orton as an underachiever while we get called for 10-12 offensive penalties a week is not quite fair.
I know this, He outperformed Brady in Denver, Romo in Denver and Eli Manning is Denver.
I think when we stop holding as much even on running plays, stop having linemen get caught downfield on pass plays and stop having movement call, we will get a better read on Orton.
I know he doesn’t possess a cannon but I can fire the ball pretty well.
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Nov 28, 2009 6:24 AM MST up reply actions
He outperformed Rivers in SD as well
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Nov 28, 2009 6:25 AM MST up reply actions
plus +a million bajillion and two
these mock draft things are fun, but you lose a lot of credibility when your draft has us taking a QB with our first pick imo.
sounds like most of the responses here agree on that.
by Jenna Talia on Nov 28, 2009 8:36 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
thanks Jenna
I happen to really like Orton now and I think it spoke a lot when Woody Paige pointed out that one of the loudest ovations he had ever heard at Invesco Field was when Orton entered the SD game last week. He is a warrior. I like warriors. I loved it when he got in Umenyoura’s (human-urine) face.
I hope we develop a deep passing game so everyone will at least grade him fairly.
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Nov 28, 2009 9:11 AM MST up reply actions
Exactly
The reason our deep passing game is weak is the reason I feel the need for a quarterback is prevalent. In case I haven’t made this very clear, I am a HUGE Orton fan. I bought his jersey this summer, I got to meet him, and every week I find myself defending him in some way or another. The guy is MY teams quarterback, and I’m behind him 1,000%. That being said, I saw in our four game losing streak an inability to effectively move the ball downfield on good defenses. It’s tough for any quarterback, I know, but I found that I was simply hoping for a first down at times. That doesn’t happen with a good quarterback.
We have too many weapons. Just think if Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, or even Brett Favre had our weapons and offensive line.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 28, 2009 9:21 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks!
This post and the responses has helped me understand a lot. Thanks again!
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 28, 2009 8:49 PM MST up reply actions
Right...
Because it would NEVER happen, and you know that, correct?
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 28, 2009 9:16 AM MST up reply actions
You put a lot of work and time into doing these drafts and you are passionate about it
and for that you are to be commended !
also i have learned a little bit reading the measured responses to your fanpost, and that isn’t ever a bad thing, so i thank you for that.
having said that, i won’t say that it would never happen (taking a QB with our #1), just that i think we have bigger holes than the QB position, and could not disagree with you more on the relative merits of Kyle Orton as the Broncos QB going forward.
What?
That’s not a legitimate excuse to me. Every week I see a graphic that the Broncos are the fourth least penalized team in the entire NFL.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 28, 2009 9:16 AM MST up reply actions
Does someone who knows more about College Football and the Draft...
Know about where Andy Dalton from TCU, if he declares, is projected?
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 9:11 PM MST reply actions
NFL Draft Scout
Project him as a 6th to 7th round pick.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:52 PM MST up reply actions
really... wow.
He’s currently has the highest QB rating of all college QBs.
Quit drinking the Kool-Aid and start drinking the good stuff, and everything is always alright.
by Chuck "DeadDrunk" Breedlove on Nov 27, 2009 11:45 PM MST up reply actions
Way to early for mock drafts. We need the season to end 1st. We don’t even know where we’ll end up picking.
Denver has a 5th round pick from Dallas.
This is my favorite website.
Disagree with all of the above
A. It’s never too early for mock drafts.
i. Thus, we don’t need the season to end first.
B. We have an idea of where we will be picking based on records so far.
C. We do not have a fifth round pick from Dallas. We traded it to the Lions for the pick that was used on Tom Brandstater.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 27, 2009 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
Draft season never ends
It merely develops new options…;-) For those who are interested in the draft, this type of discussion gives an opportunity to follow certain players, to increase our overall knowledge-base and to learn and debate more about the area of expertise. I’m not going to declare an ‘appropriate’ season for that – it’s a year-round enjoyment.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Good picks, except for Colt.
I know how most Broncos fans feel about Kyle Orton. He’s no Cutler. He’s not even a Plummer. He’s most certainly not anywhere close to an Elway. However, this system is very difficulty to learn (see Simms efforts on the field this year), and Orton would give us more bang for our buck. Quite honestly, we won’t have to sign Orton to a large contract, and we’ll get the leader we need for this offense. He’s very cool in the pocket, and doesn’t make too many ridiculous mistakes. His field presence and game management are outstanding, so I’m hoping we’ll be signing him next year to a decent contract. Something tells me McDaniels is happy with Orton as well, and is probably more concerned about who his backup will be next year. Simms doesn’t cut it, and nobody really knows anything about Brandstater yet. Orton will be here for at least another 3 years, and you can take that to the bank. Go Broncos!
by danielsanchez06 on Nov 28, 2009 3:12 PM MST reply actions
So...
What in the world happens when we can’t sign solid free agents at receiver or tight end because our quarterback doesn’t throw enough passes?
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 28, 2009 7:02 PM MST up reply actions
You may have bought his jersey and met him
but you do not sound like a fan of his. I am not saying you aren’t but you don’t sound it here, Sayre.
Quoting our 4 losses saying he couldn’t throw deep refuses to accept he threw 3 bombs against Washington and hit two. The Ravens have Ed Reed and a good pass rush, the Steelers have Polumalu and we let their defense pound Orton. We sucked against the Chargers totally. But still Orton came in a built some momentum until Hochstein tried to take Moreno’s TD and kick the extra point at the same time. Orton can’t throw it 80 yards but again he outplayed 4 really good QB’s this year and winning is all I care about. Winning, not stats, not 12 TD’s, not bombs WINNING! I saw longs passes for the last 3 years and when the season was over I was empty and frustrated.
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Nov 28, 2009 8:03 PM MST up reply actions
Well
Maybe it’s the play calling then. Maybe we are too conservative in the playcalling. There most certainly are ways to counter a good blitz, and we most certainly have the offensive firepower to beat the Steelers or Ravens with the passing game.
by Sayre Bedinger on Nov 28, 2009 8:22 PM MST up reply actions
That I do agree with Sayre
The offense is a bit of a mystery t me. But again we shoot our selves in the foot too often especially in the Red Zone. But I do not think its Orton that has been our problem.
Our line play has left a bit to be deserved learning the power blocking scheme.
The Steelers and Ravens shoved our line backwards which surprised me.
I thought Dennison did a better job with them against the Giants. But living here in NJ, all the talk out here is that the defensive line play of the Giants has been poor all year. So I need to see how we do the rest of the way. Especially against Freeney and Mathis. Beating the Colts would be sweet.
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Nov 29, 2009 2:52 AM MST up reply actions
You've raised another good point, Sayre
Maybe it’s the play calling then.
Yes, it probably is. I’ve noticed several times that you’ve blamed Orton – and yes, I do understand that you like the man – for things that are simply a matter of the system that Josh McD has chosen for the team. This was clear in regard to your feelings on the Wildcat and the introduction of Tebow as well – that’s completely outside the realm of the offensive system we currently have, and it’s our first year in that system. It’s interesting as heck and certainly it’s possible that McD might change over, but with the system as it stands, you’d like to see more long passes being added. Nothing wrong with that.
Many fans have missed the fact that we are throwing long about the average number of times that NFL team overall are doing so. Fans love the long pass, but whether you use it or not, or in what degree, tends to be tied into two things – offensive philosophy and defensive alignment. Orton had a nice completion to Marshall on that go route against NY, for example. We’re seeing the longer passes more as the team becomes adjusted to each other and the play book is extended in degree.
If we did chose a rookie QB, he’s going to sit for a year (or two, or more). When he does come in, he’s going to go through the same learning curve that Orton has – in fact, probably a larger one, since Orton is experienced. That has to come into the choices as well. Finally, he’s going to be throwing in the same system that Orton is and right now, that seems to be where you have the most complaint. The choice of passes won’t change with a different qB, though. McD has gone to great pains to establish this as ‘his’ system and I doubt that he would move to a different one in the near future.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Well, I don't think McCoy will last past 15, but if he is there I would be estatic
Glad to see some love for McCoy, I think he is the best QB coming out this year, he may not be the best traditional QB, but I think he will have the best career. Guy is a winner, smart, athletic, and has some great moxie.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
OK, but what makes you think your original premise will happen?
Belicheck hasn’t historically been willing to give up numbers to get the high picks. His theory seems to be that the draft is a turkey shoot and that by brining in more players he is more likely to get players he can use. So far, the evidence suggest that this judgement is sound.
And I still don’t like the idea of a QB in the first round. As your analysis points out, the Broncos have positions to fill. None of them are improved by using your #1 pick on a guy who won’t play before 2011, and may not be better than Brandstater then.
Toby Gerhart.
I hadn’t seen this kid until tonight, but holy crap, do I want him in Denver!
I know we have Knowshon and all, but I have no idea where Toby is projected to be drafted. If we could pick him up somewhere after the 1st round, that would be such a kickass 1-2 punch in the backfield.
The guy can catch, has good vision, is tough as nails, and can truck some folks.
Sayre
Again, I appreciate your passion. I saw the kid from TCU live this year, and I loved watching him. I really like that pick.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."

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