Knowshon Moreno & The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index

I agree, Hochstein’s knee won’t always be there(ha ha), but he did have both hands on the ball until the last moment. In that situation, I would expect him to stretch the ball out with no defender close enough to knock it away.

Also, who wouldn’t fumble when getting pasted by Ed Reed moving at warp speed?

These are good numbers. I know you said this above, but it’s worth reiterating that we’re dealing with a small sample size with Knowshon. He hasn’t carried the ball many times yet, and freak accidents like smacking Hochstein’s knee up his fumbling rate coincidentally. Over time, we should expect fewer outliers, not more.

It’s still worrying, though.

I think he’ll be fine long term. He’s learning that there are things he got away with in college that just don’t work in the pros.

Thanks for putting this together.

One cruise missle strike, one fluke.

Maybe its just me, but I’m not exactly losing sleep over KM’s ball security issues.

Looking at the list of names, I’m liking a lot of the higher percentage fumblers more than the lower ones. Maybe this is just because they get a lot more yards after contact and have more people working to strip the ball. After all, Knowshon does lead the NFL rookies in yards.

Marshall is a good example. So is Buck. I’d still like to have that extra effort, but a little ball handling coaching wouldn’t hurt.

Great post. This makes me feel better. Go Broncos!

All Ready!

Stronger tacklers and a faster game. Knowshon will get better as he grows with the system. We have already seen improvement with him each week, and hopefully he doesn’t have a debilitating injury like TD had to end his career. Only time will tell if Knowshon will be as good as TD or even Mike Anderson. Let’s just hope he is as comparable to them.

I have great hope and confidence that he will get this straightened out. I have to get something off my chest, though, and I hope I don’t sound too much like an ass…

I hear a lot of people giving Knowshon a pass for fumbles where he was hit by Ed Reed, or where Hochstein’s knee got in the way, etc. Not to be overly simplistic, but it’s a defensive player’s job to try and separate Knowshon from the ball. It’s Knowshon’s job to hold onto it. Granted, Reed made a big play, but it’s still on Knowshon for putting the ball on the ground. It’s that simple. I see it the same way with Hochstein’s knee. Granted, I only made it through HS ball, but one of the biggest rules of plays at the goal line…especially running plays…is that it’s going to be chaotic, there will be body parts everywhere, and ball security is priority 1.

I just think Knowshon is a pro, and giving him a pass for poor ball security does no good. I love the kid, and I hope he develops into the special back it looks like he can be. As long as Bobby Turner is his RB coach, I know his fumbling issue…and the occasional habit of dancing…will get straightened out.

The percentage of career fumbles does not give you a reasonable way to compare a veteran to a Rookie. This is pretty obvious when even within a single game it is misleading if the total number of carries vary widely. Imagine a running back with 4 carries who fumbles one of them. That is 25% fumbles. Now consider the back with 20 carries who fumbled four times. That’s only 20% fumbles. So which back would you consider more fumble prone?

One thing I have seen from Moreno over the last few games is better vision. That goes beyond just finding the crease, it also involves him seeing the approaching tackler and making the decision of when to cover the ball with both hands. Not being a RB, I can’t really speak to the issue directly, but that decision of when to go from one hand to two is a pretty big deal. Wait too long, and you run the risk of losing the ball. Play it too safe and you may not have the speed to take advantage of a hole opening up.

The point is, at first this season, that decision seemed to come late, which I would chalk up to not being used to the speed of the pro game. Now, if anything, he’s a bit over-cautious. As he gets more experience under his belt, his instincts will take over, and that transition will happen a lot closer to the ideal moment.

My gut tells me the kid is not only going to be fine, he’s going to be special. You can see his running improving, and his pass-catching and blitz pickup will come along with time.

Nice article!

Let’s see how he does moving forward.

Being one that was not on the ‘draft-Moreno’ bandwagon, I felt at first we had made a mistake. I’ve changed my mind after watching him run the last several games. I think the fumbles will be less of a problem from here on out (I don’t think he wants ‘The Beast’ to give him any more shoves…lol).

The one thing I would like to see in Moreno is that weired zone Davis went into once pass the line. Its seems like Davis would somehow become this 4.35 / 40 guy that no-one could catch. Other than that I like Moreno.

Your stats articles are a nice addition to MHR and I love how you explain them and how you write. We’ve got a good set of writers here at MHR, and you jumped in and kept bringing the quality stuff as well.

So give me a freebie if someone’s already said this but:

Even the cause of fumbles themselves is sometimes a completely random thing. Granted, there are many times that it is the runner’s fault the ball hits the turf, but there are also quite a few times that no matter how well you protect the ball, its going to come out. I know I have seen it happen many times. Take Brian Dawkin’s spear last night for an example. I don’t care how strong you are, or even if you held that to your chest with both arms, a hit that precise will jar any ball free.

I want Moreno to have a bit better ball security, but as for how that impacts my opinion of him as a runner, its not a big deal right now. He’s a rookie, he’s got time to learn. If the ball is still coming out this much in a couple years (and it looks to be more his fault than just stellar defensive plays) than I will consider changing my opinion a little.

Great post though, love it!

I don’t want to see Moreno dropping jockstraps or footballs…just jaws.

I have faith in him and Bobby Turner.

I don’t want to see Moreno dropping jockstraps or footballs

We will be well off without him having a ‘Hester’ moment, too ;-)

Except one of your tables has a typo. I don’t think TD ever put the ball on the ground. :-)

Fumbling the ball is undesirable but ball security is primarily an issue of prevent-ability. Moreno can be blamed for his initial fumbles because he carried the ball too loosely, or at least he been earlier in the season. Neither of the first two fumbles, against Dallas and New England, were the result of true carelessness, though.

And, as others have pointed out here, the fumbles against Baltimore and San Diego also weren’t the result of lax ball security.

Moreno has taken steps to increase ball security, such as holding the ball with both arms, so the issue of his fumbling is somewhat overblown. As we saw during Cutlergate, issues are often as much about the controversy that develops once an issue is raised. The issue of Moreno fumbling is about the argument over Moreno fumbling rather than the event itself — it’s a Moreno fumbling simulacrum.

Please note that Buckhalter has fumbled 3 times (2 were lost) for his 93 carries whereas Moreno has 161 carries. The perception of these two RBs is quite different despite the statistical evidence the suggests otherwise.

Again, to reiterate, I see this issue as one of ball security. The only fumble that I don’t blame partly on Moreno is the one that Ed Reed caused. However, Moreno can do better, and apologizing for his fumbles only obscures the extent to which he can improve in that area. Moreno can indeed improve in this area and in his last game, against New York, he showed that he’s learning to wait on blocks and lessen the number of opportunities that defensive players have to make unexpected hits that dislodge the ball. He’s made progress in areas of his running but it’s largely gone unnoticed — apparently. The issue of fumbling has dominated discussion on his performance and preempted discussion of other facets of his game.

We can only reasonably ask that Moreno take steps to prevent fumbles. I wouldn’t want to see him become so cautious that he substantially reduces his yards-gained ave., just so he can avoid fumbles. We have to accept some fumbles as part of the price of having a successful running attack, just as some interceptions are incidental to having a successful passing attack. We can minimize what’s preventable as much as possible but to dwell on it excessively invites ineffectiveness. I’d rather we focused on the positive than the negative. Steps that avoid the negative often cost more than their worth.

He needs to be on top of that, but clearly is taking the correct steps!

I thought your analysis here had validity and it was quantified well, even though it appears that you can’t please everyone. ;-)