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Denver's Playoff Hopes and Dreams

   With a fine performance against the Giants on Thursday the Broncos are right back in it.  I was hoping somebody would write a post summarizing the AFC playoff picture but you guys let me down.  Oh its ok, I'm over it now.  But as punishment you will all have to suffer and read my synopsis.  First off let's have a look at the AFC standings then we will discuss the contenders.  


Star-divide

AFC EAST W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
New England 7 3 0 .700 6-0-0 1-3-0 3-1-0 5-3-0 290 164 +126 Won 1
Miami 5 5 0 .500 3-2-0 2-3-0 3-1-0 3-3-0 242 244 -2 Won 2
NY Jets 4 6 0 .400 2-3-0 2-3-0 1-4-0 4-5-0 213 189 +24 Lost 3
Buffalo 3 7 0 .300 1-3-0 2-4-0 1-2-0 1-6-0 155 228 -73 Lost 3
AFC NORTH W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
Cincinnati 7 3 0 .700 3-2-0 4-1-0 5-0-0 5-3-0 215 167 +48 Lost 1
Pittsburgh 6 4 0 .600 4-1-0 2-3-0 1-2-0 4-3-0 231 184 +47 Lost 2
Baltimore 5 5 0 .500 3-2-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 5-4-0 237 171 +66 Lost 1
Cleveland 1 9 0 .100 0-4-0 1-5-0 0-4-0 1-5-0 115 263 -148 Lost 5
AFC SOUTH W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
Indianapolis 10 0 0 1.000 5-0-0 5-0-0 3-0-0 6-0-0 269 157 +112 Won 10
Jacksonville 6 4 0 .600 4-1-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 5-2-0 199 235 -36 Won 3
Houston 5 5 0 .500 2-3-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 4-4-0 232 208 +24 Lost 2
Tennessee 4 6 0 .400 2-2-0 2-4-0 2-3-0 3-6-0 209 272 -63 Won 4
AFC WEST W L T PCT HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK
San Diego 7 3 0 .700 3-2-0 4-1-0 4-1-0 5-3-0 269 205 +64 Won 5
Denver 7 4 0 .636 4-2-0 3-2-0 2-1-0 5-3-0 196 189 +7 Won 1
Kansas City 3 7 0 .300 1-4-0 2-3-0 1-2-0 2-4-0 169 239 -70 Won 2
Oakland 3 8 0 .273 2-4-0 1-4-0 1-4-0 2-6-0 115 258 -143 Lost 1

 

Source: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings

As it stand right now the Division winners are New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and San Diego.  The first three are basically a lock to win their division. Denver still has a chance to over take San Diego, but for the sake of this discussion let's say the Chargers win the AFC West.  Now what?  While I have no data to support it, I think that teams that are .500 or below at this point are very unlikely to secure a wild card spot.  That eliminates many teams including Miami and Houston. Do they have a shot? Sure, just not a very big one.  The only .500 team I think has a chance is Baltimore, we will start there...

Baltimore  5-5

WK     DATE               OPPONENT    TIME (ET)

12 Sun, Nov 29    Pittsburgh   8:20 PM
13      Mon, Dec 7    at Green Bay   8:30 PM
14 Sun, Dec 13    Detroit   1:00 PM
15 Sun, Dec 20    Chicago   1:00 PM
16 Sun, Dec 27    at Pittsburgh   1:00 PM
17 Sun, Jan 3    at Oakland   4:15 PM

The only way I see the Ravens making it is if they sweep Pittsburgh.  Having two games to go against another contender is why I believe they can possibly make it. If they can complete the sweep they would still only be able to lose one game, if that.  I see their chances as being slim.

Pittsburgh  6-4

WK     DATE               OPPONENT    TIME (ET)

12      Sun, Nov 29    at Baltimore   8:20 PM
13      Sun, Dec 6    Oakland   1:00 PM
14      Thu, Dec 10    at Cleveland   8:20 PM
15      Sun, Dec 20    Green Bay   1:00 PM
16      Sun, Dec 27    Baltimore   1:00 PM
17      Sun, Jan 3    at Miami   1:00 PM

The Steelers have a clear path to the playoffs.  They should beat Oakland, Cleveland, and probably Miami. If they do that and split with Baltimore I think their chances are very good.  While its not a cake walk (what is a cake walk anyway?) the road is clearly defined.  Of course Big Ben had a head injury so we will see what happens.  In my estimation the Steelers will make the playoffs as a wild card.  That leaves one spot open, it's down to Denver and ...

Jacksonville  6-4

WK     DATE               OPPONENT          TIME (ET)

12      Sun, Nov 29   at San Francisco  4:05 PM
13      Sun, Dec 6   Houston  1:00 PM
14      Sun, Dec 13   Miami  1:00 PM
15      Thu, Dec 17   Indianapolis  8:20 PM
16      Sun, Dec 27   at New England  1:00 PM
17      Sun, Jan 3   at Cleveland  1:00 PM

 The Jaguars are suprisingly in the mix. Why is it a suprise? Their point differential is -36. What does that mean? I am not sure but the other two teams with comparable numbers are Washington -32 and Seattle -37 both have a 3-7 record.  So the Jags have pulled out some close wins, a trend I think will end with divisional games against  Houston and Indianapolis.  Not to mention road games against San Francisco and New England.  While they have positioned themselves to have a shot at playing into January, I think (and hope) they will be eliminated from contention by week 16.

And Finally, Your Denver Broncos  7-4

WK     DATE               OPPONENT          TIME (ET)

13      Sun, Dec 6   at Kansas City    1:00 PM
14      Sun, Dec 13   at Indianapolis    1:00 PM
15      Sun, Dec 20   Oakland    4:05 PM
16      Sun, Dec 27   at Philadelphia    1:00 PM
17      Sun, Jan 3   Kansas City

   4:15 PM

The way I see it Denver doesn't need to beat either Indianapolis or Philadelphia, as long as they win the games they should win, the two against KC and at home to Oakland.  I know many are worried about playing in KC and truth be told so am I. If they lose that game the road to the playoffs becomes much harder as they will have to win against the Colts or the Eagles to secure a spot. Lose one of those two as well and they will lose their chance at the playoffs.

There are many variable involved and maybe a suprise team rises from the ashes, but the way I see it the Steelers and the Broncos make it in at 10-6. The Ravens and the Jaguars are left outside at 9-7 or possibly 8-8. They only thing that worries me is that the Steelers and Ravens have the tie breaker over Denver and if the Jags end up 10-6 they might have the tiebreaker too.(Jags conference record is 5-2 Denver is 5-3)  Meaning the Broncos could end up 10-6 and miss the playoffs.  That is how I see the playoff race shaking out, what do you think?

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 38 comments  |  12 recs  | 

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10-6 may not get us a wild card

but it could win the division. The chargers do not have a cake walk schedule either. I could see them losing at least 3 of those games. We match up better against pass happy teams like Indy and Philly than the chargers do against running teams like Tennessee, Cincinnati and Dallas. Look out for a supercharged collapse in December!

by BRONCOFAN1 on Nov 28, 2009 11:11 AM MST reply actions  

That would make my millenium if the Chargers collapsed...

But given that they have been almost unbeatable in December the last few years I went with the worst case scenario of losing the division. I hope I am wrong.

by podtosociety on Nov 28, 2009 11:18 AM MST up reply actions  

My post - route to the AFCW championship

did go into the AFC playoff picture primarily focused on the tie breakers and what the Broncos need to do to secure a play off berth. Through the comments and observations of the other members a pretty good picture was drawn. After spending a day chewing it up and then correcting one piece of vital information the picture became very clear. If Denver only drops the game in Indy, the Chargers must win 5 of their last 6 to maintain the Division lead. Two loses would put the chargers in a tie with the Broncos and given their remaining schedual there is no two loss combination that allows them to win the tie breakers.

Denver, at 11-5, would most likely be given the second seed based on victories against likely divisional champs NE and Cincy. Each would have to lose at least one game assuming that Denver only loses one.

A loss to the Eagles upsets the whole cart and gives a tie breaker advantage to the Chargers. Given the disadvantage we have in tie breakers against Jacksonville and the Steelers, two losses probably sits us out.

by Flunkie on Nov 28, 2009 11:17 AM MST reply actions  

NE and Cincy would each need to lose 2 games – sorry

by Flunkie on Nov 28, 2009 11:19 AM MST up reply actions  

I agree...

If Denver finishes strong they could win the division and possibly have a bye. But I think the Jags will lose more than two games considering their schedule. I feel 75% sure that if Denver ends up 10-6 they will make it in.

by podtosociety on Nov 28, 2009 11:22 AM MST up reply actions  

The Chargers

I’ve posted this elsewhere and I believe it could happen:

I hope they will be caught off guard against the Chiefs and lose this Sunday in San Diego. KC is not a bad team, they just haven’t been able to prove it yet. They were, after all, able to hang tough against the defending champs and pulled off a victory.

Against the Browns, they will win.

Against the Cowboys in Dallas, it’s a tossup. It depends on which team shows up on both sides, if you ask me. The Chargers should have the edge, but the ’Boys are on a roll right now.

Against the Bengals, the Chargers will be smacked back to Earth. Barring a critical injury to Palmer, Benson, or any of their linemen, the Bengals ought to show the Chargers what a playoff team is like. They will hurt the Chargers.

The Titans game is likely a win for them, but then again, anything can happen.

Finally, the Redskins do have a good defense and will be set perfectly, to play the spoiler. I like the timing of this matchup, being the last game of the season. San Diego may have everything to play for (which depends on our success from here on out) and the ’Skins will likely be trying to close the season on a positive note.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Nov 28, 2009 12:57 PM MST up reply actions  

Almost as excited to see the KC game

tomorrow as I am to watch the Broncos. We get a good chance to see our next opponent and hopefully see the Chargers Lose their control of the west – this could make for a totally excellent holiday weekend!

by Flunkie on Nov 28, 2009 1:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Me too...Go Chiefs!

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Nov 28, 2009 1:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Dont give them a win against the Titans they are on a roll right now

I watch every Titans game mainly because I am a huge Chris Johnson fan and hes on my fantasy team. They are a totally different team with the Rookie of the year Vince Young back to his old form. So I dont give the Chargers a win there just yet…..Honestly I could see the Titans winning out and going 10-6 so watch out for them in the playoff picture as well..

Mile High Salute

by TommyTSlice on Nov 28, 2009 3:38 PM MST up reply actions  

There a lot of varibles that are left in the season to decide who makes what right now.

The picture will become much clearer after week 14. If we win the next 2 games and I don’t think it’s an imposible task to do, we will have the upper hand.The key right now is winning and keep on winning. If this team plays every week like they did Thursday then it would be awfully hard for anybody to beat us. Coming down the home stretch separates the men from the boys. We’ll see what they are made of here real soon. Go Broncos.

by bfree2bronc on Nov 28, 2009 12:18 PM MST reply actions  

Thanks for posting the current standings
As it stand right now the Division winners are New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and San Diego.

Cincinnati is in good shape, but the Ravens could give them a run for their money. In looking at their opponents, the Ravens (unless they beat themselves) should win 4 or 5 of their remaining games. I could actually say the same thing for the Steelers, only as you said, Ben’s just suffered a concussion. So Pittsburgh’s questionable and I predict they’ll miss the playoffs for that reason. (His O-line hasn’t protected him well, so it’s a recipe for disaster right now.)

The AFC North and AFC West are a tossup. I’ll wait about 2 more weeks and take a snapshot of these divisions then.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Nov 28, 2009 12:53 PM MST reply actions  

SI lists Batch as out also

Pitt will not have a back up QB – Count this one as an almost automatic loss for the Steelers

by Flunkie on Nov 28, 2009 3:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Great little post, man!

I enjoyed it, especially your analysis of the points differential on Jacksonville. I think you are on the money with that.

Rec’d

"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."

by TJ Johnson on Nov 28, 2009 2:18 PM MST reply actions  

cakewalk

back in the days of slavery, master’s would line their slaves up in couples, dressed in mock finery, and have them walk in a motley procession, or mimic (poorly, since the coaching they received for the European dance of choice was intended to be humorous). The reward, a cake or piece of cake, went to whomever was voted a winner, for whatever reason.

Because the “contest” was a joke for the master’s amusement, the slang “cakewalk” came about as referring to something that was easy or ridiculously simple to accomplish.

Interestingly, the custom came over from Britain, and I believe they have a saying that they still use which is “takes the biscuit,” which also roughly means, “accomplished something easy.” Cake, bun, biscuit all share a common root etymology, and probably all descended from the same original phenomenon: baked flour batter.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

"That's MR.Styg..."

by Jeremy Bolander on Nov 28, 2009 2:33 PM MST reply actions   2 recs

Great story. Never knew that!

Not heard “takes the biscuit” (and we speak more like poms than yanks).

Do you use “takes the cake” in the US? “Takes the cake” essentially means “wins the prize” or “beats everything else” and it may be the saying that you are referring to. Often used to emphasize that one ridiculous event is more ridiculous than another ridiculous event. eg “Gee I thought that Brandon Marshalls first catch was a fluke but that second one handed catch takes the cake” or “I thought John Clayton was a twerp but Jamie Dukes takes the cake”.

Your context makes it all clear why we say it styg. MHR continues to surprise! (Oh and biscuit = cookie in non-american English I’m sure you know?)

"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."

"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams

by orange&blue_aussie on Nov 28, 2009 9:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Hence

“Styg Takes the Cake.” =)

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Nov 29, 2009 8:15 AM MST up reply actions  

:)

By george he’s got it!

"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."

"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams

by orange&blue_aussie on Nov 29, 2009 1:23 PM MST up reply actions  

my 2 cents

grest post here the way i see it ne will win the east and no wc out of the east i dont trust ciny will lose 3-4 games they will beat cle det but lose to minn sd kc and maybe the nyj pitt will lose to balt and mia bait will lose @pitt and maybe @oak and chi gb here what i think on the north pitt 10-6 ciny 9-7 bait 9-7 afc south jax couild lose out will be no better than 3-3 i think jax will be 8-8 beating mia @cle if houston beats indy tomm we have to worry about them if hou wins the next 2 games they will be 9-5 @mia and ne are last 2 games i think hou will be 10-6 sd will be 12-4 etither loseing @ dllas or @tenn den should be 10-6 or 11-5i think we will be 10-6 and get the 5 seed and play at pitt

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule

by j-man on Nov 28, 2009 3:16 PM MST reply actions  

things just got REALLY interesting!

big ben is out on sunday, so pitt is missing its 2 key players, polomalu and rottenburger… nothing is predictable.

"I just looked across the huddle to see the guys in the huddle with me: great offensive line, great talent at wide receiver, great tight ends, great running backs. If we execute and play the way that we should, it should be tough to stop us."
-K.O.

by Jay Fin Anderson on Nov 28, 2009 3:25 PM MST reply actions  

I think

its likley the Steelers will go11-5
and ravens 10-6
only losses coming from themselves

as of now we can expect to be at 10-6
so we’d miss the playoffs

So to make the playoffs as a Wild Card we need:

  • to beat either the Colts or Eagles
  • to have the steelers sweep Baltimore
  • have green bay or chicago beat Baltimore
  • have Baltimore sweep Pitt and have Pitt lose to Green Bay or Miami
  • hope the Jags lose 2 games (likely)

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
16-3 baby!!

by RiG on Nov 28, 2009 3:35 PM MST reply actions  

For a AFC West Champs we need
  • Chargers to lose to cowboys bengals titans and win tie breaker, or beat the colts or eagles
  • win out
  • beat the Eagles, win tie breaker or hope we are ahead in wins
  • hope they lose to Dallas so can win the tie breaker, if even games

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
16-3 baby!!

by RiG on Nov 28, 2009 3:40 PM MST up reply actions  

Any two Charger losses

and only one non division loss by the Broncos.

by Flunkie on Nov 28, 2009 3:53 PM MST up reply actions  

So basicall if we beat the Eagles we should be in

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!

by RiG on Nov 28, 2009 3:43 PM MST reply actions  

Thats my call

I assume a loss against the Colts, see two loses by the Chargers, which then makes the Philly game very pivotal – a win and we are AFC West camps, lose and we sit out.

by Flunkie on Nov 28, 2009 3:50 PM MST up reply actions  

or just a wild card

either way, were in
Philly Here we Come!

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!

by RiG on Nov 28, 2009 3:55 PM MST up reply actions  

10-6 has some real risk in it

Denver could end up tied with Pittsburgh and Baltimore for the second wild-card slot with that record. And Jacksonville could keep walking the hire wire – they only have two really solid teams left on their schedule.

To me, it looks like:
11-5 = in the playoffs.
10-6 = rolling the dice on multiple tie-break scenarios.

by ClarkFan on Nov 28, 2009 9:13 PM MST up reply actions  

thats what I was saying

if we beat the eagles were 11-5 and in
if everything else goes good

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
Fe fi fo fum, Philly here we come

by RiG on Nov 28, 2009 11:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Theres also the chance the Bengals go 11-5 or 10-6

and Pitt catches and overtakes them, although unlikley we would have the tie breaker

so pitt win out and bengals lose two is another option

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
Fe fi fo fum, Philly here we come

by RiG on Nov 28, 2009 11:25 PM MST reply actions  

Don't see this one

Pit is without bigBen and Troy Polamolo this weekend – that is loss number five. Bengals own the first tiebreaker so the Kitties would have to lose three games and the Steelers would have to win out after this weekend. Cincy has relatively easy games at CLE, DET, NYJ and KC. They do face SD and Minn. I expect Cincy to lose to Minn but to pulverize the Chargers. After today they should have a solid command of the Division.

Other than the second Ravins game the steelers do have a pretty soft schedual and should finish 11-5 assuming they get a couple bodies healthy.

by Flunkie on Nov 29, 2009 7:53 AM MST up reply actions  

 Let me try to sway your opinions if I can…. Lets assume we win win win 10 games…Maybe 11.

Ok, then lets let pitt win tonight and that would make them 7-4. That would make balt 5-6 Balt then plays greenbay, detroit, chicago, oak, and in pitt in pitssburg. I think we can say they win 4 of them which makes them 9-7, which makes us get into the #6 seed into the playoffs. Then pitt would play Oak, Clev, green bay, miami. and balt. They may win win all 5 games which puts them at 12-4 and may even bump cincy in which we may get the #5 seed!
       Ok, so if BALT wins then that would make them 6-5 and assuming they win 4 more, they would be 10-6 and pitt would end up 11-5. In that case, we would most likely NOT make the playoffs b/c of the tiebreakers.
           In conclusion, a Pitt win would be better for us b/c the standings are only PART of the answer.

by Calibroncoboy on Nov 29, 2009 6:40 PM MST reply actions  

See part of that

Pitt should drop to 6-5 tonite, Balt evens up at 6-5. My guess is that Pitt wins out to finish 11-5 with the fifth seed in the playoffs. If Balt loses only to Pitt then they have a final record of 10-6 and tie breakers over Denver (head to head). What I do not see is the realistic poss of Cincy falling behind Pitt for the division. I did write in my thread that at 10-6 the Broncos will be sitting out the playoff – I really did not consider the Ravins but saw too many other bad tiebreakers keeping the Broncos out. If Pitt loses tonight the Broncos will have control of their own destiny for the wild card spot with a decent chance at winning the west – Denver must win at least 4 more to see the playoffs.

by Flunkie on Nov 29, 2009 8:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Here's how I see it.

Division champs:

Broncos 11-5
Patriots 12-4
Indy 16-0
Bengals 12-4

Wildcard:

Chargers 11-5
Steelers 11-5

Close, but no cigar:
Ravens 10-6
Texans 9-7

Everyone else has a worse record.

For this to happen the Chargers lose would have to the Bengals and the Cowboys, which means we’d get the tiebreaker, and we’d only lose to Indy.

by go4broncos on Nov 29, 2009 10:58 PM MST reply actions  

Just hope they get in anyway, anyhow!

One way or another, the team needs to re-establish themselves as a playoff team once again. Even if they get in as a wild card and are one and done, they have to start somewhere building the foundation and expectations that they are a team that goes to the playoffs every year. This is a talented team with a lot of young players that needs to get over the hump and get some playoff experience.

by BroncosRock! on Dec 1, 2009 4:09 PM MST reply actions  

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