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Brad's NFL Picks - Week Nine - 2009

 

Brad's Picks was 8-5 last week. The good, bad and ugly from that:

     the good:

Dallas 38, Seahawks 17 - Dallas has scored 101 points in the last three games.

Chicago 30, Browns 6 - Jay Cutler was sacked 4 times by the lowly Browns.

Texans 31, Buffalo 10 - Texans O has been known for it's passing game, but they got 186 ground yards on 40 carries (mostly by Ryan Moats - 126 on 23) and all three of the Texans TD's were on the ground (and all by Moats).

Undeepolis 18, Forty Niners 14 - Niners held the Colts to 4 field goals and a TD pass from RB Joseph Addai.

San Diego 24, Raiders 16 - Raiders have lost 13 straight to the Chargers.

Tennessee 30, Jaguars 13 - Chris Johnson rushed for 228 yards, a Titans record. Vince Young threw for a TD (he was 15-18-0).

Vikings 38, Green Bay 26 - The unretired guy threw four TD passes at his old place, Lambeau Field. A tough one for Packers fans.

New Orleans 35, Falcons 27 - Both defenses scored a TD. Saints turned the ball over four times, Falcons turned it over three times.

     the bad:

Dolphins 30, New York Jets 25 - Dolphins had just 104 yards of offense to the Jets' 378, but the Fins got 21 points in the 3rd off two kickoff returns for TDs, and a Jet fumble that was run back for a TD.

     the ugly:

Rams 17, Detroit 7 - Lions scored a safety in the 2nd quarter, and then an 8 point TD in the 4th to make it 10-10, but then Steven Jackson ran 25 yards for a TD with 1:38 remaining.

Baltimore 30, Broncos 7 - Ravens needed a win and played like it. Broncos didn't, and didn't.

Philadelphia 40, Giants 17 - Giants have given up 112 points in the last three games.

Panthers 34, Arizona 21 - Kurt Warner threw 5 INT's and lost a fumble.

     Brad's Picks is 84-32 on the season. NFC and AFC each had a win last week, so on the season it's AFC 17, NFC 16. Home teams won 8 last week, Visitors 5. On the season it's Home teams 64, Visitors 52. 116 games played so far, 140 to go. George was 0-1 last week (he picked the Giants). George is 2-2 on the season.

     This week: off this week are Bills, Jets, Raiders, Vikings, Rams, and Browns.

     the 11:00 MST Sunday games:

Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3) - Cardinals are 3-0 on the road this year. They lost at home last week to the Panthers (6 turnovers by Kurt Warner) - will a trip to Chicago help? Chicago beat the Browns last week by 24 but didn't really look good doing it. The Browns dominated the line of scrimmage and sacked Jay Cutler four times. Cardinals have 17 sacks on opposing QB's this year. I don't think Warner will have two bad games in a row and I'm seeing Arizona at 4-0 on the road come Sunday evening.

Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3) - Washington is off a bye, Atlanta is off a Monday night loss at New Orleans. Matt Ryan hasn't been playing very well lately (7 INT's the last three games) but you gotta take the Falcons at home against the Reds.

Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2) - Division game. New England is off a bye. These two teams will meet again in four weeks. The Jets were able to shut down the Dolphins offense last week, and Bill Belichick is unworldly after a bye, especially when he's facing a young QB (Chad Henne). Take the Patriots in a game I'd like to watch.

Houston (5-3) at Undeeepolis (7-0) - Division game These two teams will meet again in three weeks.

     Texans are playing good (31-10 win at Buffalo last week) while the Colts struggled at home against the Niners. Colts lost starting LB Tyjuan Hagler for the year, Texans lost TE Owen Daniels for the year. Daniels has been maybe the best TE in the league this year. But he was already gone when the Texans put up 22 points in the 4th quarter at Buffalo.

     Texans discovered a RB gem in Ryan Moats last week - 126 yards and three TD's on 23 carries. Moats has been in the league since 2005 (from Louisiana Tech), mostly with the Eagles, but injuries have kept him on the bench. At 5'8" and 210 pounds, he could cause problems for the Colts' D, which is 27th against the run.

     I'd like to watch this game, even though I don't like dome games,and I'd like to take the Texans, but until the Colts lose a game, it's hard to pick against them, especially at the Lucas Oil Drum Dome. Still, the two games last year between these two were decided by 4 and 6 points, and the Texans are better than last year.

Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2) - Division game. Their first game was October 11 at Baltimore and resulted in a 17-14 win for the Bengals, on a late TD pass from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell. Ravens got the ball back with 22 seconds left but couldn't manage a field goal. This game is in Cincinnati, Ravens had a very physical game last week against the Broncos, and Cincinnati is off the bye.

Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7) - Tampa Bay is off a bye. Green Bay is off a humiliating loss at home to the unretired guy. Packers O line is pretty bad, but the Bucs are on their 3rd QB of the year, rookie Josh Freeman, and the Bucs D is terrible. Take the Packers.

Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4) - Maurice Jones-Drew gained 177 yards at Tennessee last week on just 8 carries. Jags are at home and are the better team.

     the 2:05 MST games:

Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5) - Lions couldn't beat the Rams in Detroit last week. They won't win in Seattle.

Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0) - Division game. Panthers got lucky on the road in Arizona (six turnovers by Kurt Warner), but the Saints will continue on as an unbeaten team after this week. They already have 17 INT's this year (16 total in 08) and here comes Jake Delhomme (13 INT's this year).

     the 2:15 MST games:

San Diego (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3) - Giants started 5-0, then lost the next three. They've lost two starters from their defensive backfield, and that's pretty much when they started losing games. Even worse, though, is that QB Eli Manning is on the skids, which started when he hurt his heel.

     Chargers are 4-0 against teams with losing records, 0-3 against teams with winning records. What the Chargers do well, though, is throw the ball down field. Philip Rivers to Vincent Jackson has been hot lately - 245 yards on 13 catches and two TD's the last two games.

     Giants RB Brandon Jacobs has been averaging 4.9 per carry the last three games (at NO, Cardinals, and at Philly), after averaging 3.3 the first five. If Big Brandon can keep Rivers on the bench, the Giants can win this game at home.

Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4) - Niners starting RT Tony Pashos was lost for the year a week ago, and on the first play of the Colts game last week, LT Joe Staley went down and is out for about six weeks. But the Niners did OK at Undee anyway. Alex Smith is playing well at QB (19-32-1-198 and a TD last week) and TE Vernon Davis is having a career year. Rookie WR Michael Crabtree is playing like he didn't hold out until a couple weeks ago (137 on 11 catches in two games).

Titans' Chris Johnson went wild last week against the Jags (228 on 24 carries and 2 TD's - one from 52 yards out and one from 89), but the Titans also gave up 177 yards to Maurice Jones-Drew on just 8 carries. Vince Young was good in his first start in a long time, going 15-18-0-125 and a six yard TD pass.

This looks like it will be a fun game to watch. Niner D did a great job in Undee last week, and if they can focus on stopping Chris Johnson, and keep it going on offense, they can win a wild one.

     the SNF game:

Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2) - Division game. Dallas WR Austin Miles has caught a TD pass in three straight games, and Tony Romo hasn't thrown an INT for three straight games. Dallas has scored 101 points in the last three games. Eagles have scored 76 in the last three games. None of that means a whole lot in a division game on prime time. I guess I'll go with the Eagles at home - they get Brian Westbrook back.

     the MNF game:

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1) - Steelers are off a bye, while the Broncos had to endure a very physical game in Baltimore last week. Don't look for a lot of rushing yards in this game - Steelers are first against the run, Broncos are third. Steelers haven't had much of a run game, relying on Ben R to pass for their yards. Kyle Orton didn't look too good last week against a very physical Ravens D, and the Steelers D is just as physical, if not more so. Steelers have lost their starting DE for the year and his backup for this game, but the Broncos have lost their starting RT, Ryan Harris, for three weeks. Teams have had some success with the dink and dunk pass game against the Steelers lately, and the Broncos can do that as well as anyone. Besides, this game is at Mile High on Monday night.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Looks like we only got two different.

I think the victory over the Broncos will spark the Ravens to get revenge on the Bengals. I also think the Eagles are due for their usual “let down”. I might as well take the Cowgirls.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Nov 5, 2009 10:51 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

AFC North

I’m hoping there is going to be a 3-way tie in the AFC North after this weekend at 5-3. (Excluding tie breakers)

Earth, Wind and Beer - Uintah

by Beer30Bronco on Nov 6, 2009 9:45 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Nice pIcks, Brad

Don’t beat yourself up to bad over the Dolphins/Jets game. Could have gone either way.

I like your pick on the Houston/Indy game, but I am crossing my fingers for Houston. We need to get that home field. I think that Giants game will be interesting too, but I expect the Giants to pound them given the early start.

You’ve got balls to pick Arizona, but I like it too! I want JC to throw, oh, maybe another 3 INTs.

"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."

by TJ Johnson on Nov 6, 2009 2:47 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Undy is also without

a bunch of CB’s and as usual Bob Sanders… I’m wondering if they might not be an unbeaten after this week! Houston losing Owen was huge though… =/

I’m tentatively going with Dallas and Denver as my other upsets, but boy am I not too confident in those. Good thing I’m in a confidence league…. lulz.

by tunga77 on Nov 6, 2009 3:00 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Undy's CB's

Yes, I read this morning that CB Marlin Jackson tore his left ACL in practice yesterday – hard luck guy, he tore the right ACL in practice a year ago). Anyway, I won’t be at all displeased if I picked Undy in error.

IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)

by bradley on Nov 6, 2009 3:12 PM MST reply actions   0 recs


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