Ranging Quarterbacks, A Comparison

by BShrout on Nov 7, 2009 7:17 PM MST Comment 25 comments

Bob in Boulder, in a response to the post "The Broncos Success - Is it Orton or McDaniels?" raised the question of how Orton's statistics at various ranges compared to other quarterbacks. I decided to take a look at this.

I used the data provided by espn.com's stat pages for the the top 10 quarterbacks (as ranked by yardage on the sportsline.com website). I also threw in Cutler's statistics since someone will undoubtedly raise that question. The data is shown after the jump.

The quarterbacks being compared are: Schaub (Hou), Manning (Ind), Roethlisberger (Pit), Rivers (SD), Brady (NE), Brees (NO), Rodgers (GB), Favre (Min), Warner (Ari), Romo (Dal), Cutler (Chi) and Orton (Den).

Ball Thrown Behind the Line

a)Completions: Most -- Favre (51), Average -- (39), Orton (35), Fewest -- Romo (26)
b)Yards: Most: Schaub (382), Average -- (242.6), Orton (227), Fewest -- Rodgers (147)
c)Completion %: Highest -- Manning (89.4), Orton (85.4), Average -- (81.1), Lowest -- Warner (71.7)
d)Average/Attempt: Highest -- Schaub (7.64), Orton (5.554), Average -- (5.5), Lowest -- Favre (3.69)
e)Touchdowns: Most -- Schaub (4), Average (1.25), Fewest -- 4 tied with 0 (Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Orton)
f)Interceptions: Fewest -- 8 tied with 0 (Schaub, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Orton), Most -- 4 tied wit 1 (Brady, Favre, Warner, Cutler)
g)Rating: Highest -- Schaub (125.2), Average (95.8), Orton (89.7), Lowest -- Warner (80.7)

Orton was 7th in Completions, 8th in Yards, 3rd in Completion Percentage, 6th in Average/Attempt, tied for 9th in Touchdowns, tied for 1st in Interceptions, and 7th in Quarterback Rating.

Ball Thrown 1-10 Yards

a)Completions: Most -- Brady (114), Average -- (86.25), Orton (83), Fewest -- Rivers (61)
b)Yards: Most: Brady (987), Average -- (796.4), Orton (756), Fewest -- Brees (504)
c)Completion %: Highest -- Manning (80.2), Average -- (69.85), Orton (65.9), Lowest -- Romo (54.4)
d)Average/Attempt: Highest -- Warner (10.86), Average -- (7.03), Orton (6.0), Lowest -- Brees (4.94)
e)Touchdowns: Most -- Cutler (9), Orton 6, Average (5.25), Fewest -- Brees (2)
f)Interceptions: Fewest -- 4 tied with 0 (Brady, Rodgers, Favre, Orton), Average (1.25), Most -- Cutler 5
g)Rating: Highest -- Favre (115.7), Average (98.4), Orton (97.9), Lowest -- Brees (79.9)

Orton was 7th in Completions, 9th in Yards, 9th in Completion Percentage, 9th in Average/Attempt, tied for 2nd in Touchdowns, tied for 1st in Touchdowns, 8th in Quarterback Rating.

Ball Thrown 11-20 Yards

a)Completions: Most -- Brees (41), Average -- (31.1), Fewest -- Orton (21)
b)Yards: Most: Manning (740), Average -- (584.6), Fewest -- Orton (358)
c)Completion %: Highest -- Manning (66.7), Average -- (56.2), Lowest -- Orton (48.8)
d)Average/Attempt: Highest -- Manning (12.98), Average -- (10.57), Lowest -- Orton (8.33)
e)Touchdowns: Most -- 3 tied with 5 (Rivers, Brees, Warner), Average (3.08), Fewest -- Cutler (0)
f)Interceptions: Fewest -- Orton (0), Average (1.9), Most -- Warner (5)
g)Rating: Highest -- Manning (125.8), Average (96.5), Orton (85.2), Lowest -- Roethlisberger (79.8)

Orton was 12th in all categories except: Touchdowns (11th), Interceptions (1st), and Quarterback Rating (9th)

Ball Thrown 21-30 Yards

a)Completions: Most -- Brees (15), Orton (7), Average -- (6.4), Fewest -- 3 tied with 3 (Brady, Warner, Romo)
b)Yards: Most: Brees (468), Average -- (247.25), Orton (189), Fewest -- Warner (76)
c)Completion %: Highest -- Brees (78.9), Orton (46.7), Average -- (40.8), Lowest -- Rivers (25.0)
d)Average/Attempt: Highest -- Brees (24.63), Average -- (12.89), Orton (12.6), Lowest -- Rivers (6.19)
e)Touchdowns: Most -- 2 tied with 4 (Schaub, Brees), Average (2.08), Orton (1), Fewest -- Rivers (0)
f)Interceptions: Fewest -- 7 tied with 0 (Manning, Rivers, Brady, Rodgers, Favre, Romo, Orton), Average (0.83), Most -- 2 tied with 3 (Schaub, Cutler)
g)Rating: Highest -- Favre (132.6), Orton (115.3), Average (95.3), Lowest -- Warner (48.3)

Orton was tied for 3rd in Completions, 6th in Yards, tied for 3rd in Completion Percentage, 5th in Average/Attempt, tied for 9th in Touchdowns, tied for 1st in Interceptions, and 4th in Quarterback Rating.

Ball Thrown 31-40 Yards

a)Completions: Most -- Manning (4), Average -- (2.08), Fewest -- 5 tied wit 1 (Schaub, Warner, Romo, Cutler, Orton)
b)Yards: Most: Manning (160), Average -- (89.9), Ortong (87), Fewest -- Romo 34
c)Completion %: Highest -- Rodgers (60.0), Average -- (35.7), Orton (33.3), Lowest -- Romo (11.1)
d)Average/Attempt: Highest -- Orton (29.0), Average -- (16.4), Lowest -- Romo (3.78)
e)Touchdowns: Most -- 2 tied with 2 (Manning, Rodgers), Average (), Fewest -- 2 tied with 0 (Warner, Romo)
f)Interceptions: Fewest -- 6 tied with 0 (Schaub, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers, Favre, Orton), Most -- 6 tied with 1 (Manning, Roethlisberger, Brady, Warner, Romo, Cutler)
g)Rating: Highest -- Rodgers (143.8), Orton (121.5), Average (94.3), Lowest -- Romo (3.2)

Orton was tied for 8th in Completions, 7th in Yards, tied for 6th in Completion Percentage, 1st in Average/Attempt, tied for 3rd in Touchdowns, tied for 1st in Interceptions, and 4th in Quarterback Rating.

Ball Thrown 41+ Yards

a)Completions: Most --Rivers (5), Fewest -- 4 tied with 0 (Manning, Warner, Romo, Orton)
b)Yards: Most: Rivers (251), Fewest -- 4 tied with 0 (Manning, Warner, Romo, Orton)
c)Completion %: Highest -- Schaub (100), Lowest -- 4 tied with 0 (Manning, Warner, Romo, Orton)
d)Average/Attempt: Highest -- Rivers (27.89), Lowest -- 4 tied with 0 (Manning, Warner, Romo, Orton)
e)Touchdowns: Most -- 4 tied with 1 (Roethlisberger, Brady, Brees, Favre), Fewest -- 8 tied with 0 (Schaub, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Warner, Romo, Cutler, Orton)
f)Interceptions: Fewest -- 7 tied with 0 (Schaub, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Favre, Romo, Cutler), Most --5 tied with 1 (Roethlisberger, Brady, Brees, Warner, Orton)
g)Rating: Highest -- Favre (135.4), Lowest -- 3 tied with 0.0 (Warner, Romo, Orton)

Orton only attempted 3 passes of 41+ yards and completed none of them.

Schaub's 100% completion percentage is based on a single pass.

An observation: in nearly all of the categories, in the majority of the ranges, Orton is in the top 10 of the quarterbacks surveyed.

I'll let the rest of you draw your own conclusions.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Love the work that went into this!!!! and rec'd

Very interesting stats, the only thing is… I have one major concern.
The lack of the +40 attempts!!! Even +30 attempts thru the air like we see with Rodgers, Farve, and Rivers!!!

I honestly don’t care if he only completes 1out of 5 there has to be that threat to keep the safeties honest and keep em’ out of the box!!! It makes the play action pass work!!!
It keeps the LB’s thinkin’ and worrying!!! It opens up the small stuff over the middle that the Ravens just completely took away. The Ravens drew up the perfect defense for this Bronco offense… Take away the small stuff and keep 8 men in the Box and DARE Orton to throw the Bomb, I would love to see a bomb once in a while!!! Sometimes you even get lucky and get a penalty.. anyway thanks for all the work!!!

"even a stopped clock is right twice a day" Yosemite Sam

by lovewatchinthegame on Nov 7, 2009 8:21 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

For the record...

I’m not saying’ that he “can’t” make the throw I am just sayin’ he doesn’t make the throws maybe it’s the game plan or something else whatever it is I for one would love to see it change.

"even a stopped clock is right twice a day" Yosemite Sam

by lovewatchinthegame on Nov 7, 2009 8:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed, i would like to see a few more long throws but,

let’s keep it in perspective. When looking at the attempts by the 12 quarterbacks to throw the ball 41+ yards, we find:

Romo 0 Attempts
Schaub 1 Attempt
Manning, Warner 2 Attempts
Orton 3 Attempts
Favre 4 Attempts
Cutler 5 Attempts
Roethlisberger, Brees 6 Attempts
Brady 7 Attempts
Rivers 9 Attempts
Rodgers 10 Attempts

I find it interesting that Orton sits right between Manning and Favre — two of the more accomplished quarterbacks in the league.

I think part of the McDaniels philosophy is that you throw it shorter and expect your receivers to make plays after the catch.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Nov 7, 2009 8:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

So,

If you average the just the QB ratings of the first five categories (eliminating the one for 41+ yards) Orton ends up at 6.4. I’ll assume these are the top 12 QB’s in the league. That means KO, at this time, is about the 7th best Quarterback in the league. Odd that he rates at 4th best in the two long categories of 11-20 yards and 31-40 yards.

And, like many assert – Orton is still on his way to getting better!

All things considered, I think we are doing just fine at the QB position.

Just another guy...on the lost highway.

by oncobronco on Nov 7, 2009 8:29 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

It’s either the playcalling, the WR, or the QB — but we haven’t really looked good on offense. I don’t care if we don’t have a speed demon, send the ball in the 11-20 yard range, that isn’t “speed” area. Every team has started jumping our routes at the sticks, we need to either pump fake it or do something to get it down the field and move the safeties back.

We are not scoring points and our D won’t be perfect forever, our O has to be able to score points. Our WR rarely seem to have any space to run after the catch — put the blame whereever you want, I don’t care =)

Small question about the 11-20 stats, how does Orton have below 11 yards per completion? =)

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Nov 8, 2009 8:00 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

two thoughts

The problem in the Baltimore game was the safeties were playing way deep most of the game, taking away the deeper passing routes where Orton is best. Our receivers seem to need some time to “get up to speed” on their routes. They don’t appear to explode off the line, which may be a reflection of not being totally in tune with the routes and timing.

The averages listed are per attempt, not completion. If you average by completion, his average is 17.04 yards per catch.

by BShrout on Nov 8, 2009 9:38 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Where he's best?!

The guy has 8 completions TOTAL that have traveled over 21 yards. And just for the record, the one completion in the 31-40 range was the deflection to Stokely in week one.

You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted and then used against you.

by improv88 on Nov 8, 2009 6:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

true

but the split is based on air yards. To get to Marshall to be tipped, it had to travel at least 31 yards in the air. Yards after the catch are not included in the splits table I was looking at.

And let’s put this into perspective. According to the splits tables, completions that traveled over 21 yards for all 12 quarterbacks are as follows (from most to least):

Brees 19
Roethlisberger 12
Rivers 12
Schaub 11
Rodgers 11
Favre 11
Manning 10
Cutler 9
Orton 8
Brady 6
Warner 4
Romo 4

So he’s not so far behind the curve as you might think.

He’s ahead of 6 of them in the 21-30 range (Manning, Rivers, Brady, Rodgers, Warner, Romo) & tied with 3 (Roethlisberger, Favre, Cutler).

If you remember, McDaniels’ passing attack is based on passes thrown in the 10-30 yard range, then letting the receivers make the play.

by BShrout on Nov 8, 2009 7:31 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Impressions

Reviewing the stats and simply watching the games, Orton is effective but not flashy. The real question to me is why the offense as a whole is not more effective.

As Todd Jewell states, it looks like “Every team has started jumping our routes at the sticks, we need to either pump fake it or do something to get it down the field and move the safeties back.” and ". Our WR rarely seem to have any space to run after the catch

by Endzone on Nov 8, 2009 8:07 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Darn

I hit the post button too soon. Anyway, to continue.

I believe there are two primary issues: (1) the running game, and (2) the WR routes.

McD is determined to include the power blocking game with the zone blocking game. Thus far we can see that the Oline is not built for the power blocking game. Too often when we have run a power block play I have seen our guards on their behinds. When Buck or Moreno break a gap then the pulling linemen, WR’s and TE’s are not there to help gain further yards. I am OK putting some of the blame on Moreno’s dancing, but it seems to me the supporting cast are not getting into position to block. Just as a suggestion, maybe McD should shelve the power block scheme until he has the personnel to execute it. We MUST improve on 3rd down and red zone possessions.

The WR’s are the bigger problem for me. They are ineffective in support of the run game and are not getting enough separation in their routes. Again as TJ points out, opponents are not allowing our WR’s to run routes without being bumped at the line. That throws off timing routes and delays the WR’s from getting to their run game assignments. I don’t think the answer is pump fakes or moving the safeties back (eg the “long ball threat”). I think they need to be more physical as they get off the line.

Which gets me to the QB. Every QB in the league throws incompletes. The haters will see every incompletion and see a bust. I do not. In our system, the QB throws to a point in space expecting the WR/TE/RB to reach that point in space at a certain point in time. The QB must determine if the defenders can or cannot make a play and if his receiver will be there by the time the ball gets there. What I have seen leads me to believe the Orton is improving every week. But the receivers are not getting enough separation and run support.

Finally, I think the offense plan is still being installed and needs better execution, especially by the WR’s but in reality by everyone.

by Endzone on Nov 8, 2009 8:26 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

is it the WR or the routes? Are they running the wrong routes, are they running the routes wrong, or are the routes that are called, poor?

I think it is a combination of 2/3, with 2 being because they are not aggressive enough in how the WR are running the routes.

by Todd Jewell on Nov 8, 2009 9:07 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I get the impression

that the receivers (including the TE’s and the RBs) are all still having to think too much about what they’re doing.

A classic example is the sack Orton took near the end of the 1st half of the Cincinnati game, about 1.5 seconds into the play, there were three Bengals defenders in the backfield, and three of our receivers were still within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. With the possible exceptions of Gaffney and Stokley, our guys have looked pretty tentative coming off the line.

Plus, the receiving corp has not appeared to do a good job of adjusting to the play on the field when things fall apart.

All in all, my impression is that this is an issue of a learning curve. From what I’ve read here at MHR and on other sites, the Denver offense is one of the most complex in the NFL, and many writers expressed the opinion that it would take 2-3 years to completely master. So, to be 6-1 at this point, and showing at least some improvement each week (with the possible exception of the Baltimore game), I find myself being encouraged to believe that we will do alright.

by BShrout on Nov 8, 2009 9:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Think or Physicality?

Is it only a mental thing? It probably is a factor, but I belileve it may be that they are not being physical enough as well.

by Endzone on Nov 8, 2009 9:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

most likely one feeds the other

IMHO, when you’re having to stop & think about what you’re supposed to do, it reduces how physical you can be in doing it. Likewise, if you’re too focused on blowing the DB off the line as you take off, you’re less likely to run a good route.

by BShrout on Nov 8, 2009 11:04 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Drawing conclusions

Great statistical breakdown, but doesn’t put Orton in a particularly great light. The conclusions I draw run parallel to everything I’ve ever though about Orton: even if he’s able, he appears to be unwilling to push the ball down the field. And, as was painfully obvious against Baltimore, he is completely unable to impose his will on a defense when it is necessary. “Taking what the defense gives you” is only applicable with a lead or in a tight game. When the deficit exceeds two scores, a QB has to start taking some shots and force a defense to give up more than they are willing.

You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted and then used against you.

by improv88 on Nov 8, 2009 6:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

You can also interpret the data

to suggest that for a quarterback learning an entirely new system with a coach he’s never worked for before and an offensive unit that is brand new to him, he’s still managing to place himself well above the middle of the NFL pack, and often in the top 10.

So far as not pushing the ball down the field, how much of that is due to Orton being unable/unwilling to take a shot, and how much comes from the plays being called on the sidelines?

From what I’ve read, McDaniels’ approach to passing is based on timing patterns, and the receivers making smart choices when the protection breaks down. For an offensive unit that has played only 7 games in a new system thus far, timing is going to be an issue, as is the ability to recognize when the qb’s in trouble and needs the receivers to break off their routes.

by BShrout on Nov 8, 2009 7:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If that scenario is true, then I will lay a large amount of this blame on McDs playcalling

A common complaint against any offensive coach (or defensive for that matter) occurs when they stubbornly stick to a game plan that either is not working, or is no longer relevant to the game situation. Against Baltimore, both of these situations occurred: the screen/slant game was stifled from the outset and by the end of the third quarter a sizable deficit was in place. And yet no adjustments to the game plan were made. When the YAC is not forthcoming, it becomes the responsibility of the QB to gain the yardage through the air. It almost appeared as though the team had accepted the loss just after halftime.

It would be a pretty safe comment to say that if it hadn’t been for the PI call against Foxworth, the Broncos would have seen their first shutout since (I believe) 1992. And that PI was a gift given that Orton had underthrown the ball by at least 10 yards. Either way, the offensive gameplan was rendered useless, and McDaniels made no adjustments.

You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted and then used against you.

by improv88 on Nov 8, 2009 9:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that we did not see any obvious adjustments

Yet at the same time, 9 points is usually not seen as an insurmountable difference. We were down by 7 in the NE game at the end of the third and managed to eke out a win.

I’m guessing, McDaniels believed that his guys would rise to the occasion. I think there’s a lot of reasons that didn’t happen. I’m also confident that McDaniels and our players learned a lot from that loss. I tend to believe that we won’t see the same mistakes being made in the coming weeks.

I also tend to be encouraged by how our season has gone thus far — given that the majority of the “pundits” figured we’d be 3-4 at this point.

by BShrout on Nov 8, 2009 9:59 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs