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Scouting Terrence Cody

Alabama's Terrence Cody (62) reacts at the end of a 24-15 win over LSU in their NCAA college football game at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

More photos » Dave Martin - AP

3 months ago: Alabama's Terrence Cody (62) reacts at the end of a 24-15 win over LSU in their NCAA college football game at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

I've been hearing a lot about Terrence Cody of late. I hadn't really had a chance to make any kind of decision on how I feel about the player and with the onset of a classic SEC LSU/Alabama contest, I thought that this kind of high-stakes matchup would be a perfect chance to find out if this is a player that I'd like the Broncos to consider or not. The week before, I spent some time wandering though the draft sites and the news media to get a little background. These are the things I found.

Star-divide

First, Terrence Cody isn't currently being considered as a first round pick by a surprising number of of websites. The ones that like him seem to only talk about his metrics - there's no question at all that he's a big, big guy. But as too often happens, very few sites that are 'big' on him talked about anything else. That has been the biggest reason that I haven't been on the Cody bandwagon -- that doesn't tell me anything that I didn't know the first time that I read about him. Size is good - sometimes. It certainly can't be taught. But, by itself it's not sufficient. There are 400 lb guys out there, but they can't necessarily play nose tackle. If Denver wants him at all, they'll want him at nose. He really doesn't have any qualities that would let him fill in at DE. I needed to learn about his intellect, motivation, coachability, skillset and effectiveness.

To gain a little more background, I looked up some biographical information. Cody transferred to Alabama as a junior in 2008, coming from Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College. He had also only played two years of high school football - his junior and senior years. I didn't find a reason given, (although a couple of allusions to his poor grades in high school) but Cody's lack of experience may be playing into some of his issues. However - upon transferring to Alabama, he made an immediate impact. In 2007, Cody would go on to achieve first all-SEC team status, and garnered first team All-American status during his first year at Alabama, his junior year. He did miss a few games with a MCL sprain, which is something to watch. The ankles and knees of a man that big take on a huge strain.

So, I spent some time on the sites that have dropped him out of the top round and read about their feelings as to why that's going to happen. I got the same two reasons, over and over. Reason 1 - conditioning. Reason 2 - inner drive. The two are frequently related, and in a big man, they can be a real pain in the neck. Cody is 6'5" and his weight is the stuff of conjecture. That brought back a few players throughout history, and none of them made me very happy.

If you're of a certain age, you might remember an offensive tackle by the name of Bubba Paris. At 6-6 and 300 lb in an era when that weight was rare, he was drafted in 1982 to play left tackle by the San Francisco 49ers. Bubba was going to be the next big reason that the SF 49ers would go to more Super Bowls. When Paris was drafted, Bill Walsh was sure that with a year or so of seasoning, Paris would be a very large, very stout obstacle to any of the players who were going to hit Walsh's quarterbacks. It never happened. Paris sat out a year and the coaches worked with him on his conditioning but he always seemed to regain the weight (it would later turn out to be delivery late night pizzas that were the culprit). He did eventually start at left tackle and he played in a lot of playoff games for a very good SF team.

However, no matter what they did, for some reason Paris just couldn't get himself sufficiently motivated to get and stay in the kind of shape that would let him dominate. He did last for almost a decade, but Paris was just never the player that Walsh wanted or that he could have been. That's happened with a lot of big men. Hearing that about Cody didn't fill me with warmth and excitement, but it was, after all, just draft sites. They aren't exactly gospel to me. I wanted to watch him play, and I did.

In the first quarter, I got a good look at him. He's physically imposing, to be sure. What I didn't see was an explosive first step. Cody doesn't seem to fire off the snap. He's not languid, but he's far from fast. You can say, however, that he gets up a good head of speed over the course of a few steps. Inertia is certainly his friend. True to his pattern, Cody tended to play 2 of three downs. What concerned me about that was that he missed both passing and rushing downs, apparently due to his conditioning issues. Cody has lost some weight, by the way, and is down from almost 390 to 365 to start the season and 358 early this week. I consider that a good sign, but I do wonder at how long it's taken him to get motivated enough to dump the weight, and whether he's gained sufficient endurance enroute. Several sites did mention that the coaches have admitted that motivation isn't always his strong suit. Again - that's just draft sites, and opinions vary.

There were some good things and some less good things that came out right away as the game began. On one of the first plays, I saw him attempt to stunt, weakside, attempting to make his way past Ciron Black, the LSU sophomore LT who will turn pro. Black handled him easily, one on one. That wasn't what I had hopes for. By the way, when Cody tries to run, he almost prances. It's a strange gait for a man of his size, but something tells me that no one makes fun of it. Cody was double teamed at times, and rarely seemed to defeat them. He's tough one on one for the smaller players to handle, though, and that's a start.

During that quarter, Cody got near the QB once but never really pressured him. I will say that LSU often ran 'away' from him, but I'm not going to read a lot into that. They essentially liked to run offtackle and did so a lot with mixed results.  They did run past him a couple of times, moving him nicely out of the way. They also threw a lot of screens - WR and RB.

Cody wasn't much of a factor in the passing game. He's not fast enough to catch the QB much, and he's not explosive enough to reach his level often. I saw him on his hands and knees twice. He did make a nice tackle on running back Charles Scott, moving laterally with good control to reach him. On two other plays, the announcers raved over him being in on the tackle, but he had only mopped up after the stop was made.

Play anticipation: I've already noted that I didn't see him exploding off the snap. Just as importantly, I didn't see him having the ability to diagnose the play and to move accordingly. If the play went away from him, it seemed that he wasn't too concerned about pursuit. Cody also doesn't seem to have the knack of using his hands effectively. Blockers too often were able to lock on to him and maintain their blocks.

On an Alabama blitz package at about the 10:50 mark of the second quarter, Cody went for the B gap. The guard took him on and steered him to the outside, leaving a huge opening that the LSU QB Jordan Jefferson used to pick up a first down, running. He was kept helpless in a double team when Jefferson threw the first TD pass of the day. Overall, this isn't what I want to see in a Broncos high round pick. Cody tended to trot when he should have run (or was that running?). He isn't often in on the tackles even in his zone. By the time that the 1st half had ended, I wasn't in Cody's corner.

But I entered the second half willing to be persuaded. It was a good, tight game, with several great performances on both teams. It was the kind of game in which one single big play could swing the victory to one team or the other. LSU went into half time with a 7-3 lead, but Alabama came back on the first drive on the second half to take a 10-7 lead. It was still anyone's game.

3rd quarter, 3rd and 4, 10:34 to go. Cody actually did fire out of his stance very quickly. The only problem was, he was totally off-balance when he did and landed flat on his nose., untouched. Easy play for an LSU 1st and 10. I continued to watch and chart, but eventually lost interest. To be honest, Cody didn't do all that much. The LSU offense was shut down for most of the day, but Cody really wasn't a big part of that. He made a couple of plays, but really didn't do anything that stood up and screamed 'First Round!'.  Actually, I left the exercise with the impression that he's going to be a project for someone.

Do you remember BJ Raji? He was the one 'big' prize, the player that teams were supposed to lust over. The Packers got him and he's doing what most 1st year DL players do - sitting on the bench, filling in, impressing no one. If you add to that the fact that Raji at least tended to dominate more often than not in college, you can get a clear picture of how excited I'd be if Cody came to Denver. I've looked forward to dental appointments with that kind of joyous fervor.

Terrence Cody is a very large man. He is relatively inexperienced. He might be teachable, even though he apparently doesn't have a huge intellect, and he may keep his motivation on the weight loss long enough to get in condition. But if you seriously want the Broncos to improve this upcoming offseason, I'd suggest that either he's going to have to improve very quickly, or he's not the player for us. Intellect, first step, ability to diagnose the play, dominating against talent, defeating double teams and showing off skill in big games all mean a certain amount to me in establishing draft desirability for NTs. TC just didn't have it today. Perhaps on other days he will, but I came away sure that he's not the player for the Broncos.

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Very informative!

I learned quite a few things reading your post ES. Thank you!

by MakeCents on Nov 7, 2009 11:21 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I like our current nose tackles.

"The night is darkest just before the dawn."- Harvey Dent

by broncofan91 on Nov 7, 2009 11:29 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Suuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

I’m currently pulling a Cody in the sense I do not have the motivation to provide an in depth analysis of Suh while Mr. Smith’s analysis of Cody is like Suh. Does that make sense?

Besides the great footwork (played soccer in his youth), leadership qualities (team captain), relentless motor (rarely misses a play), intelligence (a construction mgmt. major whose father is a mechanical engineer who runs a business in the NW), etc., etc. one of his greatest assets is his versatility. Here we have a beast of a NT who can actually drop into coverage like a linebacker and do it well. Think of the zone blitz nightmares that could create!

Oh, and the guy blocks kick after kick… okay so that is one thing Cody and Suh have in common…

My roots are in Denver and my branches in Nebraska.

by Blackshirt4Broncos on Nov 8, 2009 12:08 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Cody is too risky.

Suh will be drafted long before Denver has a shot at him. Suh will be a Top 5 pick, maybe #1 overall.

Looking at our roster, we have some pretty obvious areas that could be addressed with a 1st round pick that should fall in the upper teens or low 20s.

DE, CB, OG/C, NT and ILB (in that order) jump to mind.

I’m against the risk of a boom or bust pick like Cody. Denver is not a desperate team so I don’t believe we are desperate enough to make a high risk high reward pick like Cody. I hope we play it safe and draft a Joe Haden (CB – Florida), Renaldo McClain (LB – Alabama) or Corey Wootton (DE – Northwestern) type.

This is my favorite website.

by McGeorge on Nov 8, 2009 8:04 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I had a great time watching McClain while scouting Cody

Of the two, he interested me a lot more. Good comments!

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 10:30 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, the NFL draft is right in the middle of my stikezone so I love these types of threads on guys like Cody and our draft picks.

This is my favorite website.

by McGeorge on Nov 8, 2009 12:58 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

McClain

Is projected to be a top-5 pick by Mocking The Draft. Whether that’ll end up being the case remains to be seen, but I’ve gathered that he’d be just as out of reach as Suh or Berry.

"I'm a Michigan Wolverine, which means I'm the only one who watches 'Rudy' hoping he pulls a hamstring or pops a quad." - Rich Eisen

by Rob4Braves on Nov 8, 2009 11:41 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

You might be right, Rob

A lot depends on the Chi Bears. Right now, they’re getting blasted by ARI. The Broncos have their pick in the first round, so there are two factors at work. How far they drop is one. How many truly interesting players are out there, and what teams will need each kind, is the other. What I’m starting to believe is that we’ve got more players who are exciting then teams that will pick first. No matter where the Broncos pick in Round 1, I’m comfortable that they’re going to have some great choices.

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 12:11 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I look for our pick from Chicago to fall in the 12-17 range, which would be great as a value pick if the 2010 draft is as deep as expected.

Cutler looks great today, but the Bear D is terrible.

This is my favorite website.

by McGeorge on Nov 8, 2009 1:01 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

About the 2010 Draft

I was previously skeptical about the idea it would be a great draft — after all, injuries happen, players tail off, etc. But now that I understand the likelihood that mountains of underclassmen will declare in advance of a potential rookie salary scale, I get it. It really will be a deep draft. I used to ride you hard about that McG, and wanted to acknowledge that I’m seeing the issue differently.

by Chibronx on Nov 8, 2009 1:09 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

The fact that's it will be a deep draft

is precisely the reason you move to go after the better players in a weaker draft (like the ’09 draft, for instance). The Broncos are set up well for the 2010 draft, it seems to me — with what should be a mid-first round pick and picks throughout.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded down in the first, if they wind up at, say, pick 12-14, in order to pick up an extra second / third rounder.

by JeffG on Nov 8, 2009 3:01 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Yes, Cutler looked good. I couldn’t help but notice – his accuracy was great, he did well, but they still didn’t put up points. Sort of a pattern, although the reasons were probably different.

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 2:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Cutler made a ton of great throws today

But he doesn’t have a whole lot to work with. That o-line is sub par, and the defensive secondary is a mess.

Chicago is going to have to hit on picks in the later rounds to get good again any time soon.

by JeffG on Nov 8, 2009 3:02 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Or, to develop a hither-to unknown skill at FA

I don’t see either happening, to be honest. This year’s issues were not obscure, nor were they impossible to prepare for. There was a lot of whistling past the graveyard about the line, D and receivers. It’s a tough harvest.

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 6:09 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Mount Cody's a beast to watch

I still like him, and I hope he fares well wherever he goes, although your intellect argument proves that he may not be in the orange and blue next year.

John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)

Formerly known as Calijoefornia

by Joe Medina on Nov 7, 2009 11:32 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

i'm fine with Fields and Baker

thanks

"Really, I'm a high-motor guy. Tough, hard-nosed, a hard runner, can make you miss at times. And just competitive. I love to play the game and I bring that energy to my team. So, we'll see how that goes." - Knowshon Moreno

Knowshon Moreno=ROY

by stedtfeld on Nov 7, 2009 11:32 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget Thomas

"The night is darkest just before the dawn."- Harvey Dent

by broncofan91 on Nov 8, 2009 12:22 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

o yeah

we’re pretty much set

"Really, I'm a high-motor guy. Tough, hard-nosed, a hard runner, can make you miss at times. And just competitive. I love to play the game and I bring that energy to my team. So, we'll see how that goes." - Knowshon Moreno

Knowshon Moreno=ROY

by stedtfeld on Nov 8, 2009 12:27 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't believe that we are set

I say that having watched the Ravens game, and our season so far. Our D-line didn’t demand double teams so they were able to lock their OT on to our OLB. Now a lot of times we are going to win that battle because we’ve got some good guys, but we need a dominate d-lineman or two to stop teams from doing that.

We’ve been getting by a lot on a solid rotation but when our offense can’t stay on the field then having a good rotation isn’t enough. We must draft D-line this year because it’s a perfect year to bring someone in who can demand a double team plain and simple.

by Fan in Exile on Nov 8, 2009 7:03 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll agree with FIE here

Baker is great to have at NT. But while not having a dominant NT is not a death sentence for the 3-4 (see Denver Broncos, 2009), he still must command and occasionally threaten double-teams, and having a dominant guy inside will never hurt and puts less pressure on the rest of the defense. Plus, Fields is great for this year, but who says he won’t pull a Casey Wiegmann in 2010 (read: decline due to age and playing above expectations his first year with the team)? Also, it would be great to have a substitution package with two guys who can each play 2 or 3 downs full-out and be a dominant force each time. Finally, if we can get an every-down kind of guy, then that limits our vulnerability to the no-huddle — see Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens, 2009.

Baker is still a project, and he may be at least a year out. For all the reasons I stated, plus Baker still being a question mark, we shouldn’t overlook NT in the draft. Granted, we shouldn’t really trade the farm to get a guy like Suh, but if he is anywhere near us and the price is right, I would definitely be in favor of a trade up for him.

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 8, 2009 7:39 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Good comments!

My only very minor quibble is that Fields is 27, while Casey is 35. However – the point still is accurate. One year’s performance doesn’t promise another, in all cases.

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 10:33 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Well that was a worthy post

Thanks Emmett. I wanted to watch this game and check out that little Sophmore returner that LSU has. But I had the privilege to attend the Air Force/Army game today. It seems nobody will kick to this kid. I believe his name is Holliday. I did catch the Bama game last week and only heard Cody’s name a few times. He DID block the FG that would have won the game for their opponent, but otherwise he was pretty quiet. I remember reading an article about his weight problem and the possibility that it tied to a discipline problem alluding to laziness or not being serious enough to work at succeeding at his position. I believe he is having “Fun” and enjoying College too much to think about his future and may be a touch immature in that regard. That is the trouble -—- Youth is wasted on the young.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Nov 8, 2009 12:00 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

By the time we would want to draft Cody he would be gone.

CB, G and C first and foremost. Cody’s been eatin’ way to many burgers to be McDaniels team.

by bfree2bronc on Nov 8, 2009 12:32 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

What about ILB?

"The night is darkest just before the dawn."- Harvey Dent

by broncofan91 on Nov 8, 2009 12:54 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

I’ve been beating the Brandon Spikes drum for a good while now, and I am getting more and more fascinated by Rolando McClain

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 8, 2009 7:44 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

chi-town's pick

won’t we be picking where the bears finish. Which looks like it could be around 12 again. A lot depends on next year’s free agency but i think WR will be on that list too. And don’t rule out safety either.

by mikebirty on Nov 8, 2009 1:17 AM MST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

WR?

We hardly use the ones we’ve got, why do we need more?

I kid I kid, mostly…

by aLuffabo on Nov 8, 2009 1:33 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

And now, CB as well.

Bailey, Law, Goodman: all great, but how much longer have they got? The Phonz is just one man, after all.

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 8, 2009 7:41 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Joe Haden from Florida would look very good in a Bronco uniform.

This is my favorite website.

by McGeorge on Nov 8, 2009 8:05 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Mike Johnson

first and foremost. Maybe Mike Iupati if the price is right. The problem with interior linemen is: where do/will/should they go? Last year was an abberation with two C picked in the first round (both 20+). So who goes with our #12-ish pick (from CHI)? None of the CBs seem can’t-miss, and only Trevard Lindley has the potential to go #12. My vote? Either Brandon Spikes or Rolando McClain, depending on how each finish the season and are valued by other teams. I would rather address CB with a value pick — maybe Javier Arenas (return specialist too)?

Wow! McClain, Johnson, and Arenas, on a thread about Cody. We’re diving into the Crimson Tide!

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 8, 2009 7:57 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

We'll take a guard, certainly

…but we can likely get a good guard later in the draft. I think we’ll see the Broncos take a CB and a LB early — unless there’s a receiver out there who has Percy Harvin-like return skills; then maybe another running back; followed by a guard, center, and another corner.

Of course, all this goes out the window if, say, we draft at 15-20 and somebody like Sam Bradford is still around. Might be too difficult to pass up a Bradford or a Locker at that spot.

by JeffG on Nov 8, 2009 9:11 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

After Brandstater last year? See also TheMHRMemberFormerlyKnownAsStyg’s post about Orton on the front page, as well.

I’ve liked Orton this year, but haven’t been on the long-term bandwagon. I am now. Keep Orton until the wheels fall off, then let Brandstater take the reins. No 1st-round busts at QB for me, thanks.

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:56 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

It aint sumo wrestling

I have to say that the better sites, such as Wright’s DraftCountdown or NFLDraftScout do list Cody as a top prospect, but I think he’s overrated because of his ‘impressive’ weight.

I just can’t see us drafting a part-timer who’s a risky project. And I especially can’t see it this year, given the amount of big good DTs. More than that, it’s hard to see improving upon our luck in getting Baker last year. I think our Cody-like project is already in-house and simply needs to be develop.

This (2010) is a wonderful year to add to our DL, but the best and most useful DLs can play both NT and DE34. And versatility is still a concern, as it should be.

Arthur Jones — can play both DE34 and NT(not full-time)
Jared Odrick — also could play both if needed
Dan Williams — can play both, and is in the 3rd/4th round range now. He’s big enough now to play NT.
Brandon Deaderick — yes, Cody’s teammate might be a better choice, and cheaper, too.

Phil Taylor — he’s a poor man’s Cody at 355 lbs. And he’s good enough to go in the top half of the draft.
Jerrell Powe — another poor man’s Cody at 340 lbs.

Marvin Austin
Lawrence Marsh
Cameron Heyward

I’ve left out a lot of good ones out, too. The ones I’ve focused on can all play DE34, so I’m not even looking at pure NTs. I’d rather see us add a good DL who can add some weight if needed than bring in ‘the weight’ and hope he might become a good defensive lineman some day. I think we should worry about finding good DE34s right now. There’s a tendency to force a NT pick. I know we have a good chance to fix DE34 but I don’t know that we can fix NT by just getting bigger. My ‘little’ brother weighs 400 lbs. but he’s not a player. It aint just size.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Nov 8, 2009 1:55 AM MST reply actions   3 recs

Excellent

Personally, I’d steer away from any player from Alabama’s Nick Saban. Don’t like guy for the way he handled his situation while in Miami. I understand everyone wants to be paid well for their trade and ego plays a role. Saban isn’t the type of ‘leader’ I’d want any kids of mine to play for. Factor that into questionable student-athletes short comings in maturity, preparation and motivation, I just don’t see him really grooming any of these young men to excel at the pro level.

I know McDaniels was a grad student under Saban during Michigan State a few years back. I think any grad student would like to learn from some of the best coaches, regardless of flaws. In fact, it maybe that very reason McDaniels handles himself very well.

Great write by the way and look forward to any other players you’d feel would be able to contribute next year and beyond. Just a question though, what about Chris Baker and Ronnie Fields? If Baker develops accordingly this year, do we need another NT? How many is ideal for a 3-4 team?

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Nov 8, 2009 2:04 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Hate the player not the team.

LB Renoldo McClain from Alabama looks like a great NFL prospect to me.

This is my favorite website.

by McGeorge on Nov 8, 2009 8:07 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

He's our pick on Countdown

I thought of saying something about him.

Rolando McClain

Someone posted their mock here with him as our pick, too. I made extensive comments in that topic on why I liked McClain. I wouldn’t be as enthusiastic if he weren’t able to play outside but I don’t think that’s the case. He appears to be capable of playing OLB and ILB in both the 4-3 and 3-4. He’s also capable in pass coverage.

I’ve commented at length on subject of the devaluation of MLB/ILBs previously and the one point I’ll reiterate here is that McClain’s enhanced value stems from his versatility plus his ability to rush the passer. If he were drafted by us, his position would still be inside, but his value to us would stem, in part, from his pass rushing ability.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Nov 8, 2009 11:51 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

haha, I'm not sure who it was, but somebody pronounced LaRon McClain "LAY ron Mack lane"

It was one of the guys on the Bengals/Ravens broadcast. Rolando McClain reminded me of this. So, just thought I would share that with you. It gave me a chuckle.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by kentuckybronco on Nov 8, 2009 7:33 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I beat the Spikes drum last year (until he went back to play another year)

and now, McClain keeps finding ways to change my vote. I think he’s a fantastic fit for our system and our organization.

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:58 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree

"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox

by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:57 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I know I am a guy who comes off as big on Cody

no pun intended.

In reality everytime I mention his name its from the sheer fact that he garners a lot fo attention. I personally like the DT from Michigan better and the one I just watched today from UCF. gotta watch more film but as Mr. Smith points out Cody is very hard to plug into a 3-4 system with his inability to collapse the pocket. He will be a good NG in a 4-3 with A LOT of work. personally I have him as a late 2nd early 3rd pick.

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown

by Jon Tollerud on Nov 8, 2009 2:10 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

DraftTek has us picking Cody in the 1st currently.

I’m a huge DraftTek fan and recently Guru backed off and allowed me to handle the Team Needs and comments for the site. (Thanks John!) After a lot of thought I decided to leave DT34 as a pretty high priority (P3). When the engine picked Cody for us, though, I wasn’t thrilled. I’m not inclined to downgrade our need here for the next concensus mock (this week), but I am inclined to lock out Cody as I think he is just ranked to high on the current Concensus Big Board.

Arthur Jones would be great, but he was gone the pick before. Spikes the pick before that. Eric Berry went on the next pick to SD and he is looking better and better for Denver after this week’s shake up. I’m leaning toward seeing what the engine does for us with a lockout on Cody. It may be Berry, who I definitely like, but I have to admit I am not sure on his usability as a CB…

If anyone is interested in discussing the draft and the DraftTek needs and engine in particular, please feel free to contact me at srnelson@hotmail.com. I love the draft and I think DraftTek does a great job of giving draftniks something realistic to play with.

And thanks for the article Bear! I hope this wasn’t a highjack, but I felt like I needed to chime in with some thoughts given the coincidence of our pick on DraftTek and your excellent article. I didn’t go into detail above, but I share your concern on Cody and I just don’t think he is a great fit with McDaniels’ philosophies.

I’ll do a longer dedicated post on DraftTek as we get closer to the draft. For now, I am getting twitchy for the CHI-ARI and SD-NYG games, not to mention the huge game tomorrow. : )

Go Broncos!

by NedBronco on Nov 8, 2009 8:02 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Not a hijack at all - it's draft talk!

I expect to have a great time watching our permutations up to and including the draft. I happen to love the moves we made so far – I’ll enjoy watching the new ones as well!

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 10:36 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

comment on DrafTek

The composite ranking they use tends to be influenced by outliers. Moreover, there are enough quality sites that rank Cody highly, so it’s more a divergence of opinion.

DrafTek’s mock draft software is a wonderful at producing mocks but it still fails to replicate the actual draft selection process. The problem is that a ranking system based on precise categories fails to replicate the player attributes that teams consider when making their choice. The example above — of Rolando McClain — provides an example of why DrafTek’s programming falls short. If we were to consider his selection based solely on his ranking as an ILB (or MLB, which raises the question of scheme-appropriateness) then we’d be ignoring his usefulness outside of the normal duties associated with the ILB/MLB position.

In a fuzzy-logical view, the attributes he possesses are not ignored and are part of the draft decision. Bi-valent logic isn’t equipped to deal with hybrid players. In a bi-valent view, a player’s value is measured by how well he conforms to the stereotypical representation of his native position. “Tweeners” are considered, by definition, as inadequate at more than one position rather than versatile players who can create mismatches. A player such as Karl Mecklenburg would have been considered too small for the DL and too slow for LB rather than a great potential mismatch.

I consider DrafTek to be a great tool but there software has limitations, and this should be kept in mind. Curiously, it’s the interactive aspect of having draftniks make the picks for their teams that has the greatest value. It’s the collective intelligence (the hive mind or action of a market) that produces the greatest refinements in the process, and NFL teams are a step above this information-wise so we’re still just kibitizers. But it is entertaining.

BTW — a lockout of Cody would remove him from consideration but it wouldn’t change the overall logical structure that produces every other pick. It would take a more far-reaching change to the values and operations to remedy some of the flaws.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Nov 8, 2009 1:28 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for response Coliski. Always appreciate your comments here.

I will disagree a little bit, though.

The valutaion of tweener players is a totally legit complaint, but I think it now applies more on the valuations side (rather universally) than on the pick/need-fullfillment side due to the new pairings logic Warren added. If you haven’t had a chance, check out the “Inputs – Pairs” link for a description. It is clearly not perfect and it does not address the valuation issue which you raise, but it does start to address the way a tweener player like McClain (or Berry) would affect a team’s needs and later picks.

With regard to those valuations/rankings, as you say they can be affected by outliers but I like the idea of a “concensus” big board a lot. I may disagree in places but as a user I have the chance to make lockouts/grabs in the simulator when I feel confident regarding a player. It’s early in the draft discussion and I have already seen a few lockouts from the other team correspondants. I think it at least helps to address the need for some non-bivalent logic, which you call out.

Finally, I would have to disagree with the assertion that DraftTek doesn’t avail itself of the collective intelligence which is available. As I mentioned above the concensus big board tries to do exactly that. And the team needs are all driven by very dedicated fans who spend time working on how best to capture a team’s personnel picture. To be honest, it strikes me as a lot more “hive-mind”-ish than about anything else I can think of. I’m a fan of some of the one-man mocks out there (like Scott Wright’s mentioned below), but I fail to see how that is more collectively driven. (Although his is admittedly very good.)

I DO agree with your comment that we are kibitzing because it is entertaining, though. I just get a kick out of learning about the players, thinking about the teams and what they need, and considering the sorts of questions the executives and general managers are also considering.

by NedBronco on Nov 8, 2009 3:00 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

more of fuzzy logic

I actually thought about commenting on the ‘valuation fix’ but I declined because I thought it would confuse the issue.

Some of the tweeks could improve the simulator’s performance (they weren’t all working last I checked) but there’s a jury-rigged quality to the solution. Boosting a player’s rating because he’s versatile produces a more realistic scenario but it still doesn’t replicate the decision-making process to a real-world level of depth.

The input pairs model the contingent nature of the decision-making process more closely but the problem is in bi-valent logic itself — I believe, or at least partly. It’s what I call a categorical fallacy. There are actually many more positions than are being used. For instance, 5-tech, 7-tech, etc., but the category of DE (or OLB) includes all of these variations in a ‘one size fits all’ type of conflation. And there’s many situational usages that aren’t contained in the concept of position. Also, calling a scheme a 4-3 or 3-4 is very misleading given the differences between schemes of the same type, so there’s detail missing. I commented previously that the DE category had become a collection of different athletes ostensibly playing the same position.

Re: “consensus.” This is an intractable mathematical problem. Taking a poll of polls approach means that one poll’s overvaluations are still included in a somewhat minimized form. It’s an intractable problem. Ideally, we’d like to lessen the ‘squirrelly’ valuations but decreasing the influence of outliers merely makes for a problem of the opposite type.

My comment on the “hive mind” is a reference to what isn’t software — the contents of the GMs’ minds. You apparently mis-read my comment on this. Having the GMs replicate the circumstances of the actual draft (by being interactive, and replicating supply & demand) isn’t a high tech solution but the technology facilitates it.

SWARM INTELLIGENCE

FUZZY LOGIC

DrafTek’s simulations are a good idea but a number of the simulations prior to the last draft were less than impressive. And I can’t say what went wrong. I’m not critical of DrafTek’s efforts but I won’t sugarcoat the problem either.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Nov 8, 2009 5:46 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

NFL Draft Countdown

IMO – This is the best NFL draft site.

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

This is my favorite website.

by McGeorge on Nov 8, 2009 8:08 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

That's a great site.

I love their analysis and logic behind each mock pick.

John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)

Formerly known as Calijoefornia

by Joe Medina on Nov 8, 2009 11:03 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

an oddity on DraftCountdown

In last year’s final mock, Wright had us taking Ayers @ #18 and Alphonso Smith @ #48 (we took him earlier than that). He also had us taking Raji @ #12, which we probably would have done if he had been available. He also had Quinn going at #76(12th in 3rd) right before we took Travis Beckum (TE) @ #79.

You can peruse his archives and see how close he’s come with his past mocks. His previous mock of the 2010 draft had us taking Arthur Jones (DE), and it’s now been updated to have us taking Rolando McClain (ILB) @ #15. I can’t argue with those choices.

no goats, no glory.

by Colinski on Nov 8, 2009 1:57 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Not really the place but you sort of have to determine who we have [and their age] and our needs…

We only have one young CB and 3 old ones, we will have to draft/FA a CB.

Davis is getting old and we need a 3 down ILB. I don’t think woodyard is a good enough playmaker, personally. I like him, just don’t think he is the answer.

Apparently we need speed at WR, will assume we draft one mid-late.

DE … I believe we still need help here

C, definitely need help

LG, if Olsen is the answer, I want him in there now =)

RB, Lamont probably won’t be on the team after the year imho

Punter, doubt we would draft one, but we do need one perhaps even Kicker too

NT, if we have secured our position does Baker get some playtime? I want to see him on the field, I am too excited about him not to be able to watch him.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an OLB get drafted either.

Maybe I should have just went with a list of positions we won’t need assistance at =)

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Nov 8, 2009 8:19 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

we do have DJ Johnson and Tony Carter on the PS, both are CB’s so depending on what they see there, but not wanting to remove them from PS, they might be decent?

Mitch Erikson is also on the PS, so that might help with some OL depth next year?

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Nov 8, 2009 9:25 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I really love this stuff, Doc

Many thanks for putting this together. It’s clear to see that Cody isn’t the kind of well-rounded, low-risk player the new regime values. Thanks for taking the time to watch tape and put together this unique scouting report. It’s a fuller version of things than we get elsewhere, and I really appreciate it.

by Chibronx on Nov 8, 2009 1:06 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I will say this on Cody

Everything that youare saying regarding Cody was also said about Vince Wolfork coming out of college. That is the hard thing about the draft, you can never tell how a player will respond based on motivation. I would not base judgement on one game, I agree he is a risk, but every DL in the first round is a risk since it is hard to judge their transition to the next level.

Everyone was down on Maualuga saying he was out of shape and all this other BS about not being coachable, having to be babysat for, etc…, the dude has performed extremely well and looks like a fixture in the Bengals defense for the next ten years. I sometimes question a lot of these sites in that they try to find reasons to bring kids down or prop kids up based on their personnel feelings regarding programs.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Nov 8, 2009 2:05 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I agree Broncoman

Which is exactly why I chose to break down the film. Is one game enough? Perhaps not – please feel free to add your own experiences. However – Cody has a lot of pretty obvious problems.

Wilfork might or might not have had issues coming out of college, but that doesn’t really reference anything on Cody one way or another. I don’t recall Wilfork spending this much time on his hands and knees, but I could just be forgetting that, certainly. Still – Cody didn’t look very good, considering the price folks are talking about paying. The info I took from the various websites was mostly of reproducible, factual info. The issue is not whether every player is a risk – that’s a given. It’s whether or not the risks outweigh the benefits. In this case, I’m inclined to believe that they do. I respect that others see it differently, but that doesn’t chance what I saw.

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Emmett Smith on Nov 8, 2009 2:24 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I just remember the scouting report of Wilfork was something close to this

Great size, underachiever, does not play with intensity from one snap to another. Good power, not great explosion. I just think DL are some of the hardest people to grade coming into the draft and trying to figure out what they will do on the next level. I can pull up a lot of other D lineman that were considered can’t miss prospects and they are out of the league or are sitting as back-ups.

I guess I am on the fence regarding Cody, I will try to watch some more SEC games, but I think he has potential to be a very good NT, similar to a Sam Adams or Ted Washington type of player, but he could go the other route and eat himself out of the league. I wonder with the issues with the OT from Bama last year if this is an issue with some peoples preceptions regarding lineman coming from that program or if it is something where they just have guys with low self control.

I will like to see him in the SEC title game and the bowl game, one thing also to note, is that the SEC has had a year to play against him and they are probably making some good adjustments to him, can he make the other adjustments and become the dominate guy again, time will tell.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Nov 9, 2009 8:28 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

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