How Good is Kyle Orton, Anyway?
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 9:30 AM MST
116 comments
The other day, I was ambling about in some stat sites. An article went up about Orton and I decided to gather some stats and some research together - the better informed the argument, the more cogent it can become. I also recognized that I would need a bit of help putting together all the stats, since I wanted to find the bad as well as the good. I gave a yell to TJ 'lebowskibronco' Johnson, who was kind enough to pitch in on this article. It's from both of us.
I appreciate the recent post by Broncos Cheer regarding Kyle Orton. I loved the following discussions, and many posters made excellent points on both sides of the issue. Several folks were arguing against the long-term position of Kyle Orton as the QB of the Broncos, and that's a legitimate concern. I'm very upfront about my disagreement with that position, despite my enjoyment of the arguments on both sides. However - in my own mind, this issue can be aided by being subjected to a small amount of logic, a little history and the value of observing progressions. Kyle Orton's career is an obvious progression that will shed a lot of light on what his future with the Broncos will be.
/prəˈgrɛʃən/ Pronunciation [pruh-gresh-uhn], noun
Orton's career has been a long and continuous progression from mediocrity to high-quality play and yet many (perhaps most) fans, still view him as an unknown quantity at best and a known-but-unacceptable quantity at the worst. It's been my impression, in listening to fan comments here and elsewhere, that many of the people who still doubt Orton always did - before there was really any evidence on which to base an opinion. In this article, I won't speak to that group. It's not because I don't respect them (I emphatically do), but because against ignorance, as it has been said, the gods themselves contend in vain. I have found that you cannot change anyone's mind if they have a prejudice. For the vast majority, who tend to open minds, I'd like to add some facts that seem to Bear on the situation.
I also saw a QB who was far more accurate than his numbers. Please let me explain: I had seen, over the years, a lot of QBs. I've been watching football for over 50 years now. As a result, there are a few things that I have come to believe. First - every QB makes mistakes, and in nearly every game. Joe Montana at his best made bone-headed errors far more frequently than memory admits. Our memories of such things tend to be transient. Watch a few of Peyton Manning's games from this year. He's playing very well - and he makes foolish and (to us) obvious errors in nearly every game. Many of them are overcome by the play of his receivers, who constantly adjust their routes, fight successfully for the ball and at times knock the ball down to prevent interceptions. That's what every good receiving corps has to do. Expecting QBs to make zero mistakes isn't realistic. They all make them. It's part of the game. In fact, in the NFL, there are, on average, approximately 2 turnovers per game. Interceptions are also more common than fumbles, happening approximately 60% of the time. This doesn't even count the number of near interceptions caused by hurried throws or simply bad timing by the quarterback and wide receiver. To think that Orton is the only quarterback that has bad games, or to claim that he doesn't pass the "eye test" is akin to closing your eyes when watching every other game in the NFL.
In Chicago, Orton didn't have the luxury of help. His line was poor and his receivers were fair-to-abysmal, for the most part. There is a reason that the Bears brought on some new receivers this year - they had to, and it still hasn't helped their offense very much, in part due to inadequate changes on the O-line as well as injuries and problems on the defense.
In Denver, Orton and his receivers are still getting to learn each other. Royal has been in a possible sophomore slump, although he's still finding his role in this offense (is he or isn't he a slot receiver?). Marshall is coming on. Drops have come in groups - 4 in the first two games, none until Baltimore and then a few more. But as to Orton's accuracy? Let's look at history as well as the present.
Over the four years that Orton has played (he did not play in 2006) his completion percentage has risen steadily from 51.6 in 2005 to 53.8 in 2007, 58.5 in 2008 and 62.6 in 2009. Consider that for a moment - it has raised exactly 11 percentage points (a 21% increase) over that time. Since coming to Denver, that percentage has risen from 58.5 - 62.5. What are the odds that this will suddenly stop and he'll revert to old issues? Hardly any, I'll argue in a bit.
How about his QB rating? I know - it's almost a mystical number and many folks object to it because they, like myself, are nearly incapable of understanding it. Well, in fairness - I'm not much on mechanical engineering, either, but I still drive a car. I'm comfortable using the QB rating because it, like my vehicle, is simple a tool for getting around - one on the streets, and one for getting around on the issues of professional football. Orton's QB ratings?
2005 - 59.7
2006 - N/A
2007 - 73.9
2008 - 79.6
2009 - 95.5
To me, a consistent increase in rating indicates a steadily improving QB. In this case, we are looking at an improvement of over 35 points over this time period, which is most certainly not small. His current level leaves him in the top 12 in the league and he is in the top half and above in several categories. In still others - ones that I think matter the most - he's near the top of the league's QBs. I have to admit - I remain perplexed at those who feel that a top-ten QB "doesn't have 'it'." Really? What is the 'it' are you looking for? There are few Peyton Manning's and few Tom Brady's. As an aside on Brady - I believe that he will return to pre-surgery form. To my clinically-trained eyes, I can still see impediments in his post-surgery motions that would be reasonably caused by adhesions which remain after that operation. At times he also guards that knee, which is probably subconscious. He'll get there. Orton, on the other hand, has improved his mechanics greatly over the past 1.5 years. If you have access to games via Torrents or other media, please look for yourself. If you want to see what I'm talking about right now, here's a four-minute Kyle Orton highlight reel:
For those who are uncertain about this, the recent quote that I felt best sums up the situation came from Suzy Kolber on the Chargers Monday Night Football game. She claimed to be quoting Orton, and claims that he mentioned that he has learned more in 4 months under Josh McDaniels than he did in 4 years in Chicago. It's quite a statement - but if you look at his numbers, it's a very reasonable statement. Orton is improving rapidly. He's learning an incredibly complex offense that Tom Brady once remarked takes a couple of years - or more- to learn. The incessant demand of fans that he already by perfectly proficient, make all the throws (including those that aren't called by Josh McDaniels) and make no errors is simply unrealistic. Folks - no QB does that. Even during the 49ers first championship season of 1983, it's well known that Bill Walsh would hold back much of the playbook from none other than Joe Montana, because Montana still had not grasped the entire offense. And yet, we expect Orton to have immediately mastered an offense that many consider more complex than Walsh's.
All QBs have to learn the system. I'm aware that some fans hate the idea that QBs are also ranked by wins, but that doesn't change the fact that they are. Orton has done the job for the Broncos. Whether they are 7-1 or 6-2 after the Pittsburgh game, unless Orton has some kind of a meltdown, most of our problems weren't and aren't with the QB position.
Let's look at the O-line, shall we? If we have learned anything in the past year, it's that the O-line and receivers matter greatly to a QB's performance. Those fans in Chicago have learned the same. The simple fact is that the O-line, just as some of our members were wise enough to predict, is not what it was last year. There are multiple issues, but in the end, Orton has already been sacked 11 times for a loss of 67 yards. During some games, he is usually very safe. When the defense is able to put him down and/or to hurry him frequently, like all QBs, his numbers decline. The line needs to play better. I believe that the change from a zone blocking scheme to a more mixed scheme, which our players aren't perfectly suited for, is a problem that they are working to improve. It may take another year's offseason - certainly, I expect that we will have a couple of changes to the line in the next season.
We should also look at his supposed 'immobility'. How many times does he need to move nicely out of the way of the rush and complete passes on the run before some fans will admit that he has some skill there? He's not Jake Plummer (Sorry, Zap:D) - he doesn't move constantly. But he's kept his sack numbers decent and he has more skill and mobility than he gets credit for. That seems to be a theme, doesn't it? Well - in all fairness, it should be.
Orton keeps doing two things - improving, and winning. Frankly, the simple fact that folks can complain about the QB position with the kind of numbers that Orton has put up and the win total that he is (and make no mistake) in great part responsible for doesn't surprise me any longer, but it's a darned shame. Fans seem to be blowing in the wind - when we're 6-0, hardly anyone has an issue with Kyle. At 6-1, even 6-2, suddenly they're not going to keep him? Um, folks...? Consistency is as good for fans as it is on the field. What is it about this year that has made so many fans into windsocks, twisting and turning whichever way the wind is blowing at that moment? I don't think that I've ever seen Broncos' fans so nervous.
Here's what Orton doesn't do: He doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He doesn't throw INTs. He doesn't fumble the ball easily - in fact, I've been pleasantly surprised that he's been able to hold on the the ball during some of the hits that he's taken. He doesn't give up the ball when you need him to hold on to it. He doesn't throw it away on INTs, either. He's learned to just throw it out of bounds and come back for the next play.
He doesn't blame anyone else if things go wrong. He's harder on himself than anyone else can be, even the demanding Josh McDaniels. Many folks have mistaken McD's tendency to not praise Orton excessively as a tacit criticism. I don't see it that way at all. McDaniels had the same tendency with Tom Brady, and that should give those who claim that McD doesn't have faith in Orton a great deal of pause.
Their relationship isn't unlike that of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Brady recently gave some insight into this relationship in an interview from Details Magazine:
"Sometimes, during practice, you throw a bad ball - that's the way it goes. But the video comes up and he says, 'Brady, you can't complete a goddamn hitch.' And I'll be sitting there thinking, I'm a *censored* nine-year veteran, I've won three goddamn Super Bowls - he can kiss my... That's what you're thinking on the inside. But on the outside I'm thinking, You know what? I'm glad he's saying that. I'm glad that's what he's expecting, you know? Because that's what I should be expecting. That's what his style is."
Former Bronco and Patriot John Lynch commented,
"What struck me about Josh was that he'd get in there and coach Tom Brady. If Brady made a mistake, Josh would let him know it and he wouldn't mince words about it. He had great control."
Much was made over the sideline criticism that McDaniels gave Orton earlier in the year when he told him, "No more 'My bad,'" but I believe it was similar to what Belichick does with Brady all the time and what McD used to do. Orton loves the hard work, loves the constant feedback on how to do better, employs every aspect of the teaching that he can in this brief time that he's received it and has become a leader through his examples on the field, in the weight room and in the locker room. Why not look at the results?
Some argue bitterly that the wins aren't in any way due to Orton. I find that incredulous, but purely for argument's sake, OK, fine. Let's just talk about where he is in the league for a moment. Most of these are taken from STATS (http://hosted.stats.com) and NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com). To be as fair as I can, I'm going to start off with some of his comparative weaknesses.
Critics of Orton have claimed many things, but one of these criticisms is that Orton is weaker when throwing the deep ball. Although that's really not the case, he certainly has room to improve on 3rd and long (more than 8 yards). Through week 8, here is where Orton stacks up against the other perceived elite QBs in the game (courtesy of http://hosted.stats.com):
Orton ranks 23rd league-wide. Many factors influence a successful 3rd and long play (blitz, WR routes, play call, score), but it's true that Orton has room for improvement in this area, considering some of the the good QBs who sit atop this category. This statistic also gives clarity to the strategy that the Ravens used against the Broncos: sit on the mid-level curl routes, while zone blitzing.
Another valid critique of Orton this year is his play between mid-field and the the 20 yard line. While his statistics in every other part of the field are of Pro-Bowl caliber, his play in this part of the field has been quite pedestrian (courtesy of NFL.com):
Percentage of passes competed, 4th Q - (T) 9th
QB rating, 4th Q - 2nd
Percentage of completions, 2nd half - 6th
INTs - (T) 1st
Percentage of INTs - 1st (.04%)
TDs passing, 4th Q - (T) 5th
Longest pass completion - 2nd (87)
QB rating, 2nd half - 3rd (110.8)
TD/INT ratio - 1st (9-1)
"All the praise that was lavished last year on Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan — and both players deserved it for leading their teams to the playoffs in their rookie seasons — obscured the fact that too many promising quarterbacks struggle mightily when they get to the NFL. As Exhibits A through F, we offer Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. All six players came into the NFL within the last five years as first-round draft picks with extraordinary college resumes and lofty expectations. Thus far, they haven't managed to lift their careers off the tarmac. Thus far, they have been busts. Given the history of first-round quarterbacks, maybe we shouldn't be surprised."
And here is what former Raven's coach and current FOX analyst Brian Billick had to say regarding drafting a quarterback while promoting his book More than a Game:
"It's what the numbers have borne out over the last number of years. I wrote that there have been 40- plus quarterbacks taken in the first round since '95. By any stretch of the imagination, 13 or 14 of them have been successful. "We always say it's a 50-50 crap-shoot when you take a quarterback in the first round. Well, it's more like 70-30. Those are the odds. These guys are probably on par with the failures of first-round quarterbacks for the last 20 to 30 years in the NFL." "
"It doesn’t bother me one way or the other. If you are talking good or talking bad, I don’t think they have got a very good idea of what my real job actually is."
"The physical part of most other positions is an absolute necessity," Broncos coach Josh McDaniels said. "Quarterbacks, you can be successful with different types, but I do think they share some things in common. Maybe more than what people typically talk about. They all can run the huddle. They're leaders."
"By and large, a team built on depth is better than a team built on starts and scrubs...you cannot concentrate your salaries on a handful of star players because there is no such thing as avoiding injuries in the NFL. Every team will suffer injuries; the only question is how many. The game is too fast and the players too strong to build a team based around the idea that 'if we can avoid all injuries this year, we'll win.'"
"Don’t be a celebrity quarterback. We don’t need any of those. We need battlefield commanders that are willing to fight it out everyday, every week, and every season, and lead their team to win after win after win."
34 recs |
116 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Wow nice job
the onlt stats that matter to me is WINS!
live and die blue and orange
by jerry251 on Nov 9, 2009 9:41 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Whoa.
Awesome read…now I don’t want to work!
LET’S GO BRONCOS!!!
WHOOOO!
There is only One Moment—this moment—the Eternal Moment of Now
by sirsam on Nov 9, 2009 9:49 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Great stuff as always Emmett.
I’ve still got one statistical area that I’ve never gotten an answer for— Orton’s QB Rating versus the blitz. I’ve argued in nearly every X’s and O’s post since the B-More game that we got exposed as having a weak interior line that is capable of giving up tremendous pressure. One game doesn’t make a trend, I’m just making my own football evaluation here.
Hypothetically, if we do have that type of weakness, we will need Orton to step up and play big while being rushed by 5 or 6 players. Peyton Manning is almost never blitzed because his QB Rating is over 100 (anecdotal, I read it somewhere, and that’s how I came up with the question of Orton’s rating versus the blitz). Essential, Peyton makes his line better, not the other way around.
I willing to grant you that Orton’s accuracy is vastly improved without the glove, he looks to have great velocity (at least very capable of making every throw on the field), his feet have settled down (with the exception of B-more), and above all as you point out heavily, he improves. Call him Kyle MF Kaizen if you want, those numbers leap off the page.
All I want to see is how he fares against the blitz. I think he CAN throw the deep ball, but for whatever reason McD still trusts his system to get teams out of running a deep cover 2 shell. I don’t know how that works, but I still trust him.
Sorry for the rant, but this article was a great discussion piece.
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 9:55 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I also heard about Manning's "blitz rating"
while watching one of the Colts’ games this year (I forget which one). They mentioned it numerous times, regarding why the other team was not blitzing him like they blitz in other games.
Take my advice... I'm not using it!
"If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague."
by BroncTastic on Nov 9, 2009 10:10 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
No rant, lw, and it's is here to discuss
You’ve got a point, too. Almost every QB – make that every QB – is vulnerable to some degree against the blitz. Orton isn’t bad, but he could get better here. The other thing that we could do, of course, is to improve our blitz protection byf running different packages – more max pro, etc. That wouldn’t fit the essence of the offense that McD has chosen, and I think that’s a factor here as well. Good points!
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 10:33 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
See below
101.5 rating, 5 TDs, no INTs
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 10:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Sharpie!
Another perfectly fine theory bites the dust….lol
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 10:40 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome man.
Thanks, where did you find that?
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 10:58 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Ask hoopforia
He found it, a few comments down.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 10:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, I dug some on my own and found different stats:
SI.com
vs. Blitz: 98.4 rating, 62.2% completion, 7.1 yards/attempt, 4 TDs, no INTs
vs pressure: 49.0 rating, 39.3% completion, 3.4 yards/attempt, no TDs/INTs
The two stats tell very different stories, and seemingly looking at similar situations. So, I looked for some comparison:
Brady vs. pressure: 52.0 rating, 40.0% completion, 5.3 yards/attempt, 3 TDs, 3 INTs
P. Manning vs. pressure: 83.0 rating, 63.6% completion, 7.9 yards/attempt, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
HWMNBN vs. pressure: 42.4 rating, 40.7% completion, 5.9 yards/attempt, 3 TDs, 5 INTs
It seems that Orton is only slightly worse than Brady when under pressure, and no one is in Peyton’s league. He seems to have been an upgrade over… others…
In any case, the blitz is not his issue: it’s pressure. Not sure yet how he fares vs. the rest of the league, but he at least stacks up very well to some recognizable top-tier talent.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:35 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I dont know why there is a discrepancy between SI and ESPN numbers but they are interesting
The one thing that bothered me were the claims of everyone has figured us out and after a few days I realized that they were right about us being figured out but wrong about what was actually learned . .
Opposing defenses have decided that Orton cannot be given time to setup. If you dont get him consistently moving out of the pocket he is gonna pick you apart. .It doesnt matter the length of the throw at this point because he has been so accurate so far this year that he will make any throw if given the time .
Orton has been hit and sacked plenty early in the season but no other team brought it as much as the Ravens and part of that was because of our breakdowns. So we just need to do little things to limit the pressure because its the nfl and there will always be some pressure .
by Hoopforia on Nov 9, 2009 12:45 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
WOW.
That was a great piece. Great work Emmett and the Dude.
I hope Kosyong reads this.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Nov 9, 2009 9:58 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Ortons QBR vs the blitz is 101.5 with 5 tds and no picks
by Hoopforia on Nov 9, 2009 10:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
that makes sense.
he is a smart qb who reads pressure very well. he has 2 tight ends who can either pick up that blitz or become outlet recievers, as well as two rb’s who are also great blockers and who can also be great outlet receivers.
it would be surprising if KO had middle of the pack blitz qb rating.
"I just looked across the huddle to see the guys in the huddle with me: great offensive line, great talent at wide receiver, great tight ends, great running backs. If we execute and play the way that we should, it should be tough to stop us."
-K.O.
by denver_diaspora on Nov 9, 2009 10:36 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Hoop...
Where’d you find that? I’ve been going nuts looking for it.
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 11:10 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
its on his espn profile page under Ortons splits
by Hoopforia on Nov 9, 2009 12:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately, NFL.com doesn't keep this as an "official" stat.
So it will go down as a difference of definition (i.e., “what constitutes a blitz?”). Still, the clear conclusion is that Orton is just fine when blitzed (so far this year).
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 12:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
SI.com has a 98.4 rating and 4 TDs
Not sure what the operational definitions are for “blitz”, but obviously there is some disparity.
Also obviously, this is not Orton’s problem.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 12:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
This is a fantastic piece!
Rec’d!
Take my advice... I'm not using it!
"If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague."
by BroncTastic on Nov 9, 2009 10:11 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
simple question, with no simple answers
What is it about this year that has made so many fans into windsocks, twisting and turning whichever way the wind is blowing at that moment? I don’t think that I’ve ever seen Broncos’ fans so nervous.
strangely enough (@ 6-1), its been an embarassing season for many of our fans. everyone knows why.
presumably, (duh?) people don’t enjoy being embarassed.
you can make all the fancy shmancy arguments you like (and you did, great read!), but that won’t change the fact that many people are emotionally invested in being right about the Broncos this year, and are rooting for us to fail.
thats why so many root against Kyle Orton…its pretty evident on our gameday threads.
its all about character in the end.
look at a guy like McGeorge. wrong, and he admits it. thats a fan you can have a beverage of your choice with.
some of our other fans, meh. not so much.
by Jenna Talia on Nov 9, 2009 10:12 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
I really wish I was in the gameday thread last week.
In the gameday threads, I haven’t seen any negativity toward orton in the games we won.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Nov 9, 2009 10:19 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the negative was against Hamilton getting beat so often,
not much on Kyle, he only made a couple of mistakes. I wanted someone to say something about the first offensive play of the game when Kyle got sacked. Looked to me like the RB (Moreno I believe) should have picked that up and blocked Johnson. There are so many varables in a play and Knowshon had time in the backfield to pick that up if is was coming or not. I’m not sure though and someone will probably correct me.
by bfree2bronc on Nov 9, 2009 2:30 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
guess I'm glad I don't make a ritual of gameday threads then
"Take what you can. Give nothing back!"
by Colorado_Kitten on Nov 9, 2009 10:57 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that there are some
who believe there will be a breakdown like last season’s tailspin.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Nov 9, 2009 11:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
That’s it exactly. Some value being “right” more than having a successful team. I wouldn’t call those folks “fans”, they’re more like bandwagoners.
by AllBroncsallday on Nov 9, 2009 12:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Question
I will re-ask the question here to get more opinions:
In regards to our offensive ineffectiveness, if you assume the QB is fine [which is the thesis here and one I don’t necessarily disagree with]:
Is it the WR or the routes, routes/playcalling? Are they running the wrong routes, are they running the routes wrong, or are the routes that are called, poor?
I think it is a combination of 2/3, with 2 being because they are not aggressive enough in how the WR are running the routes.
Orton would look better in the eye test if the WR’s were more open and had more room to run after the catch. Orton doesn’t pass a lot of peoples “eye test” because they see Brees/Manning/Brady throwing it to WR’s who have a whole field to run after the catch all of the time.
I believe their “eye test” is rigged based on preconceptions and that their “eye test” is more of a failure in another area… to which my question was posed.
A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.
by Todd Jewell on Nov 9, 2009 10:23 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
The offensive line
The problems first popped up with short-yardage/goal-line scenarios early in the season, then they showed up again vs. SD in the first half, then finally became glaring during the BAL game.
As an example, no QB can throw 20+ yards downfield when the play has only 2 seconds to develop because of pressure. To be sure, there are some elements of responsibility placed elsewhere (i.e., outlet receivers), but ultimately that is where it all starts and ends. No QB can throw well without time to do so. No RB can run well without holes to do so. That’s the bottom line.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 10:54 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the playcalling has been very conservative.
This goes along with Mcdaniel’s philosophy. I don’t think we’ll see a high scoring offense for another year at least. We can throw the deep ball, we just choose not to.
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 11:02 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember, it's not just KOs first year...
in this complex system. All members on that side of the ball—with the exception of Gaffney— are learning a new system. There will be plenty of effectiveness and consistency issues with this offense this year and next year. I can understand that some people would think that an offensive-minded coach would come in with this talented offense and have a top five offense. On the surface, that seems plausible, but given the complex nature of this offense, it seems more plausible that the unit will struggle until they get to the point where they can play without thinking. Gaffney’s success—second in the team in receptions and taking many reps from Eddie and keeping Stokes off the field— is an indicator that the team is struggling with the system a bit.
The ideas you brought up are really just symptoms of this larger issue. The QB making bad reads and adjusting to new players. Speaking of this, did anyone think of KO last night when the Sunday night crew kept making such a big deal of Romo still getting the feel for playing with Roy Williams? KO’s been with our crew for four months. Anyway, back to your ideas… the receivers inconsistent rout running/reads could be traced to lack of complete understanding of the system. Same goes for the playcalling. Coach is still trying to figure out what his guys do well in certain situations.
The good news is, the offense should continue to improve over the next two years and if we can keep our current core, this will be a perennial top five offense, imo.
by ButteBronco on Nov 9, 2009 12:43 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
I will say 2 things that my GUT tells me....
We make minimal yards on run game on 1st and 2nd downs when in the POWER formation, whihc leaves our team in 3rd and longs.
Our O line STRUGGLES trying to block for the power run game.
I think it is as simple as McD mixing the plays more with short passes instead of running on 1st and 2nd downs a lot.
If we can just get 4 yards and more on our 1st down gives us lots more options.
I WANT TO SEE THE POWER RUN GAME DROPPED FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. IT IS KILLING US AND MORENO WHO IS NOT BUILT FOR IT.
GREAT piece Doc and Dude….as a pro Orton guy I am not sure what people are seeing. Its like ink blots, people will see what they want to see regardless of common sense and logic…let alone facts!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 2:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I love the ink blot comparison Boydy
The way people choose to view Orton says a lot about who they are as football fans. I’ve never seen a quarterback who means so many different things to so many different people.
by bowma101 on Nov 9, 2009 4:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing!
Obviously, no argument will convince everyone, and no one is detracting from the points made here by disagreeing with the conclusion.
But this is an astounding article for its depth, generosity, and fair-mindedness (while still maintaining a firm and exclusive position). If it sounds like I’m guzzling the MHR Kool-Aid/being sycophantic/going along with anything positive about the Broncos, that’s because articles like this are what I always hope to see from the MSM, and what I am continually disappointed of finding. Superb job.
I look forward to hearing from Orton’s detractors on this post. If they do not respond here, they do a violent disservice to their own position and fair play by sniping on other threads that are less comprehensive and definitive.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 10:38 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
There are also other options
I tend to agree that ‘eye tests’ are often based on prejudices. Other times, the fanbase seems to have gotten to the point where a busted play is an indictment of Orton, McD, America, capitalism and the laws of gravity and physics. I’m kidding – partly, at least. Seriously, a single error can seem overwhelming to some folks right now.
Is it the WR or the routes, routes/playcalling? Are they running the wrong routes, are they running the routes wrong, or are the routes that are called, poor?
They are also just being covered well and jammed often. Our skillset in getting open underneath has been reduced by other teams coming up with better coverage packages and more effective press coverage that delays the receiver for the split second that make the pass inaccurate. I give credit to the teams that have done so effectively, and we’ll need to find ways to defeat their gambits. The chess match never ends.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 10:41 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I wish I could help some people understand this
I encountered an argument on a thread here that said they preferred their “eye test” because in a situation where a WR bobbles the ball, looking at stats and seeing an INC fails to be accurate. I was incredulous at the strawman argument that presented.
Maybe I’m in the minority here, but I good-golly don’t trust my eyes. Not because of my limited knowledge or exposure to the game, but because of my vast mountain of prejudices and preconceived notions and emotional investments and propensities (I play fantasy football, for one) and a host of other blinders.
I don’t trust stats either, when they are presented as exhaustive and attempt to affix hard-to-operationally-define terms like “best” or “prolific” or “dynamic”. I also don’t trust single stats in isolation (i.e., yards, QB rating, and yes — even wins). Football is a complex game and requires advanced statistics. If I ever feel out of my depth in possessing the requisite comprehension (or am pointed out as being so), then I defer and keep my mouth shut.
But that’s just me. I’ll let you figure out if that makes me Guanilo or the Fool.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 10:50 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what has infatuated people with guys like Jay Cutler, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf....
They look great to the eyes. Cutler still has a chance (his throw to Olsen yesterday was insane) but when compared to Ortons END results, that tells you the saying “NEVER JUSGE A BOOK BY ITS COVER”
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 3:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
If jamming is the problem then it is an issue both with the playcalling and the WR’s. They need to fight over the jam and either use a combination of double moves / qb fakes in order to get them to bite and go over the top… from my never-having-played-football POV.
A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.
by Todd Jewell on Nov 9, 2009 10:54 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I have plenty of faith in Orton's arm
And I can’t wait to see McD unveil it. CBs are much less likely to press cover if they’re afraid of getting beat deep. Of course, I’d rather that wait until the playoffs. So, let’s see if we can adjust our offense without unveiling that gem.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:01 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
the fanbase seems to have gotten to the point where a busted play is an indictment of Orton, McD, America, capitalism and the laws of gravity and physics
I might just have to add this to my signature, Bear. :-)
"Take what you can. Give nothing back!"
by Colorado_Kitten on Nov 9, 2009 11:03 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
It is an indictment of capitalism.
Take your pinko kitten garbage elsewhere! Boooo!
/sarcasm
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 11:05 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Feel free, CK :D
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Other times, the fanbase seems to have gotten to the point where a busted play is an indictment of Orton, McD, America, capitalism and the laws of gravity and physics.
The Financial meltdown? Orton’s fault. :D
by AllBroncsallday on Nov 9, 2009 12:13 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
From Orton's Progression to the Progression of the System
Thanks, Doc. I really enjoyed hearing this, even as the Zombie narrative about teams stacking the box against Orton’s rag arm claws its way out of the grave. (For good measure, I just read that the Broncos are a “finesse” team that can’t handle physical play. Good grief).
The bigger question I’m wrestling with, is what should we expect from the Broncos’ offense as a whole in the second half, in year two and year three.?The ceiling is clearly much higher than finishing 20th in PPG (which is misleading, since team scoring bunches in the 20-25 PPG area, and a small improvement can translate into a huge percentile jump). Clearly, McDaniels is calling vanilla, conservative, field-position offense as the best way of rolling out his system and winning in the short term.
What happens as the receivers learn their routes, Orton gets more comfortable, and the interior O-line gets bigger players? We all intuitively understand this offense as a low-risk/low-reward concoction that’s a waystation to something better. Now that you haven’t done enough above, but I’d love your thoughts on how we should start to evaluation progression and our future expectations.
by Chibronx on Nov 9, 2009 10:51 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I'm unclear what the time frame is for interpreting the "ceiling"
This year? Next year? 5 years? Personally, I think that the best feature of it is to maintain the low risk and increase the reward as 1) comfort/confidence increases, and 2) defenses adjust to combat.
For example, a 20+ yard pass is typically a high-risk proposition. Not when you have defenses trained to either believe your QB can’t throw such passes or when they sit in the second level to combat what they believe are your tendencies.
So, the short answer is that the ceiling is entirely dependent on what the league allows you to get away with, and bears no intrinsic relation to physical skills or personnel. That’s the beauty of the Amoeba offense
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:06 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
What was the time table when McDaniels took over New Englands offense? '04?
Didn’t they have a 50 Touch Down season in ’07? With an intricate systems that he brings we have even scratched the surface yet of the playbook. We are running the basics and being somewhat successful with it which makes me believe that when everyone starts to get on the same page, the fire works will begin.
by bfree2bronc on Nov 9, 2009 2:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Great Article!
Thanks for the hard work. KO is the man!
Passion, Commitment and Knowledge is the Meaning of a 'True' Fan!
by BroncoBitt on Nov 9, 2009 10:57 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I'm still nervous about him
I was feeling pretty comfortable with him until the Baltimore game, which I didn’t see. I’ve seen lots of comments that they put eight in the box and forced Orton to beat them, which he didn’t do. So it makes me nervous that other teams will follow this blueprint and our record will go from good to really bad quickly.
Was that the case? Did Baltimore essentially challenge Orton to beat them and he couldn’t do it, or was it something else? I know that they were able to get through our line quickly, was that the short of it, or was it something more?
This is our team, let's have fun with it! - dmitchell624
Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.
by solace on Nov 9, 2009 11:05 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I keep pointing it out.
Interior pressure— Orton never had a chance. They sat on our underneath routes, played their safeties deep and blitz MLB (and a few DB blitzes). It was more an indictment of our gameplan and blocking schemes than Orton. Had we gone deep a few times to loosen up the coverage, then I think you could make a determination that it was Orton’s game to lose/win. It clearly wasn’t— everyone played poorly on offense.
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 11:09 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Something more
as regards Orton’s ability to beat them deep. When our line was getting manhandled the way it was at Baltimore, even Peyton Manning or HWMNBN couldn’t consistently threaten deep, which is the only way to alleviate the pressure.
The line failed Orton, that is the short of it. Maybe you can spread a little blame to him for getting rattled. But can you blame him? He was probably having PTSD flashbacks to his Chicago days, just as he had gotten used to our (up to that point) great O-line. This is how a loss can be a long-term win for us: get Orton used to more situations, have him adjust, and make him a better QB overall and us a better team for it.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:11 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
SOL...thank the O line for an abysmal performance.....NO Qb would have beaten the Ravens behind our line that day!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 3:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
After the Dallas game...
I said that I saw a really good football team with a really mediocre QB. I wasn’t worried about arm strength. It was more about accuracy ,and finding the open, downfield receiver.
I’m kind of a ‘’show me" guy, and in the following two games against NE and San D, Orton showed me. The glove had more of an effect than I was giving it credit for,and I’m much more a believer, since.
“Upon furhther revue”, and as I continue to avidly peruse this sight, more things come to light, and more questions arise. In BShrout’s post showing QB stats, the 11 to 20 yard passes jump off of the page at me (3rd and long?). The question is whether this is a function of playcalling, receiver execution, blitz pickup, or QB read. This is also the area where the D gets bit too often for my liking defending 3rd and long. The “soft spot” on the seam. If I’m not mistaken, this is also the “sweet spot” for YAC.
I’d like to see more plays called attacking this area. With the type of D the Broncos run, the main defense against this weak spot is pressure.(?)
Could you enlighten me further?
by jayrockstone on Nov 9, 2009 11:11 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Others know more, but I'll take a stab at it
The question is whether this is a function of playcalling, receiver execution, blitz pickup, or QB read.
Answer: Yes. lol
Well, it’s not a simple thing. Yes, there is one sweet spot there, but if the defense also knows that and uses its personnel effectively, it certainly can take that one away. In such a case, you look for other sweet spots. Many times, the so-called sweet spot is an illusion – openings can open and close in a few heartbeats during a play. YAC has many factors, and the design of the play, the strength of the receiver (Randy Moss showed the ultimate example of that yesterday, clobbering Vontae Davis with one hand to make a short pass a score), and the approach used by the defense are just a few of them.
I wrote last week on the application of the Coryell passing system and the way that receivers in modern football have to improvise on many routes to defeat coverage. It’s worth mentioning again – if the receivers don’t see and adapt to the coverage, the best QB will be at a disadvantage. The QB needs time to throw and the receivers need to get open in that time.
Last year, Orton’s stats suffered because the Bears O-line and receiving corps were substandard. He’s had issues this year, trying to not make mistakes when under pressure. Personally – I’ll take his INT/FUM numbers over the guys who do ‘anything’ to defeat the sack and who create turnovers when they do so. Time, familiarity and practice will, in my own estimate, overcome most of the rest. PITT will be a great challenge. Regardless of tonight’s outcome, Orton has earned a lot of respect already.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 11:24 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
You bring up a very good point, ES
Receivers must be able to read coverages as well as run tight routes in today’s NFL. In the stats I pointed out above, Peyton Manning is stupendous when pressured, and a lot of that could be his receivers. Bill Polian has been known for almost a decade to have fantastic success drafting because he is such a good evaluator of talent. Who needs big names when you’ve got great football players?
Perhaps that was one other place we can toss some responsibility for the Baltimore game: receivers not reading coverage (including pressure) effectively and being able to beat it by improvising. I have no idea how good our guys are at that skill set; any thoughts?
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:42 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree ST
I personally believe the season is still too young for the receivers and quarterback to be fully in synch — that is, for the receivers to be so attuned to their qb that they recognize when he’s in trouble and they need to break off their route, get separation & wave madly to the qb to let him know he has an outlet.
"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It
by BShrout on Nov 9, 2009 11:58 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I have noticed the same thing and I really feel until we see that Wes Walker type receiver emerge the offense will continue to struggle
Eddie is not looking that comfortable in the slot and I get the feeling he may not be until next season.Welker is the guy who takes the Pats from 20 to 20 and then Brady closes the deal .
Welker reads the coverages and just gets open and Brady just has to find him and make the throw .Orton doesnt have that safety valve yet and so the search is on every week for who is gonna step up and get open . Weve been very fortunate that several people have taken turns making plays but no one has stepped up and done it every game yet.
by Hoopforia on Nov 9, 2009 12:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Where's Stokley been?
He is the Slot Machine, after all. :)
I agree with you, though. No idea how Kenny McKinley is at doing that sort of thing; maybe we address this next year. Perhaps Damian Williams or Eric Decker (IMO, in that order based on likely value)?
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 12:29 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Looked it up
McKinley is known for his polished route-running and quickness; was projected as a slot receiver coming out of college.
Injuries (hamstring) and hands are an issue, though. If he can’t fix the occasional drops, look for us to search elsewhere.
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 12:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
second guessing vs understanding
As always, I appreciate it when MHR folks help me move from second guessing to understanding. rec’d. Not that I have ever “second guessed” Orton. I’ve been a believer since we got him.
by Endzone on Nov 9, 2009 11:36 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
A very thorough argument for keeping Kyle
Well done Emmett.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Nov 9, 2009 11:42 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I'll be the 13th rec'd, my lucky number.
The nail that drove your post home was, in this system it will take a couple of years to fully get comfortable with the playbook and scheme. What people don’t or won’t realize is that every playing position on the offense has to learn the same thing. People who say he is not the right fit or the has the right stuff are simply rediculous and have no idea what they are writing or saying. Call it stupid or call it ignorant, either way, it becomes reduplicative of how narrow minded some are. Kyle will be fine as he grows in this system and I am sure if McDaniels is going through all of this trouble to teach him then he will keep him. First round quarterbacks are more for foolish desperate teams ie, Redskins, Lions and others to name a few. Late round quarterbacks…Brady for one has 3 rings so great quarterbacks don’t have to be picked in the first or second or even the third.
by bfree2bronc on Nov 9, 2009 11:44 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
"reduplicative"
Love it!
I’m calling the folks at OED.
;) (just messing with you, bfree)
"I only know as much about myself as my mind can work out under its current conditions. And its current conditions are not good." -- Zaphod Beeblebrox
by Sharpe as a Tack on Nov 9, 2009 11:45 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Epic Analysis
from the Doc and The Dude!
You guys are amazing, and a big part of why MHR is the best source for Broncos news, information and opinion. Keep on keepin’ on!
MARK IT ZERO!!!!
Dude, this is a league game, this determines who enters the next round robin. Am I wrong? Am I wrong?
You mark that frame an 8, and you're entering a world of pain.
by waltersobchakbronco on Nov 9, 2009 11:58 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks sobchak, as always
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 9, 2009 5:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
FANTASTIC post Emmett, great great stuff and I agree 110%
by JarredBroncos88 on Nov 9, 2009 12:08 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Great piece sir
I have issue with one thing:
I tend to trust McDaniels’ eyes. He’s forgotten more than I’ll learn about the game.
I don’t think McDaniels has forgot anything about the game!
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
by Jon Tollerud on Nov 9, 2009 12:17 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Good one!
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 12:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
My Jake Plummer comparison was only about winning. :)
Great piece Emmitt! highly rec’d!!
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The guy formerly known as ZAPPA
by Tim Lynch on Nov 9, 2009 12:34 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I see it
All Plummer did was win thats all I want from KO
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
by Jon Tollerud on Nov 9, 2009 1:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
You've done it again!
Great insight and research on Kyle. The Broncos will need every ounce of Orton’s skill tonight against the Steelers. I expect a very close game, that could come down to the final possession. KO will want the ball. Winners allways do! Rec’d.
by rocko1 on Nov 9, 2009 12:58 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Just like FALCO!
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
by Jon Tollerud on Nov 9, 2009 1:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
And thats who KO reminds me of.....Shane Falco!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 3:47 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
- Unknown
by Jon Tollerud on Nov 10, 2009 1:57 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Great post!
My brother and I were discussing some of these very points yesterday. He’s a skeptic of Orton, as am I in some area’s, but I tend to play the devils advocate in any argument I’m in and was trying to convince him that he’s not as bad as people think. This article will go a long way towards showing him that, thanks!
Another thing I’ve noticed (and it’s a relief) is that Orton isn’t compared to Elway. Instead, he’s compared to Jay Fu@&ler and the stats (other than total yardage) all seem to be in Orton’s favor. I like the upward trend of Orton’s stats and would be interested to see other quarterbacks through their first 4 years and see if the greats started great or if they improved and adapted to make themselves great.
FYI, Jay’s QB vs Orton’s ratings to date are:
2009 – 83.9 / 95.5
2008 – 86.0 / 79.6
2007 – 88.1 / 73.9
2006 – 88.5 / NA
2005 – NA / 59.7
So while Ortons stats are continnually improving, our previous quarterback’s stats are continually declining.
One argument I will make against not drafting a quarterback is that typically, in order to get a good quarterback, you have to draft one. I don’t have data to back this up, but it seems to me that the likely hood a team will aquire a franchise quarterback through trade or FA is even less than the possibility of drafting one. The only ones I can think of in recent memory are Drew Bree’s and the Denver fiasco. Other than that it’s usually a team trying to unload or force into retirement their aging QB. Another thing I’d like to mention is that a lot of great quarterbacks aren’t always drafted high. Wasn’t Brady a 5th or 6th rounder?
Why can’t the MSM post articles like this? Honestly, you’d think that the Denverpost writers could come up with an article like this. Maybe they’re not paid enough to do actual research. Maybe they don’t have access to the internets.
Again, great article!
GO BRONCOS!!!
by go4broncos on Nov 9, 2009 1:13 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Emmett,
A very long, informative and interesting read. I keep thinking, we’ve got the pieces we need to be a juggernaut of an offense. Now if we can get all 11 guys running like a well oiled machine and the same page every play, Kyle will certinaly shine. He certainly has the talent, that has never be a question for me. But, there have been an awful lot of out of sync looking plays which you can only blame on all 11 not being on the same page. That goes to play calling and coaching IMHO.
by bchiper on Nov 9, 2009 1:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
AGREE
I keep thinking, we’ve got the pieces we need to be a juggernaut of an offense. Now if we can get all 11 guys running like a well oiled machine and the same page every play, Kyle will certinaly shine. He certainly has the talent, that has never be a question for me. But, there have been an awful lot of out of sync looking plays which you can only blame on all 11 not being on the same page. That goes to play calling and coaching IMHO.
The sooner the better. McD just give us 50% of the juggernaut offense – and watch out! I can no longer wait!!!!
To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also DREAM; not only plan, but also BELIEVE.
by Broncobh on Nov 9, 2009 4:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Great comments on this thread!
Thanks to all. The points regarding the newness of the system can’t be overstated – McD is learning the players, each player is learning the system and the other players and it’s really much too soon to claim much in the way of conclusions, other than the fact that the Broncos seem to be moving in a very good direction.
Why can’t the MSM post articles like this?
bchiper answered that, and he’s right. It’s a long, informative article. There are pleasant exceptions, but most of the MSM writers aren’t allowed to do this kind of thing. They do, however, answer many of the same questions, but they will do so over weeks or months. I’m very happy to be in a situation that permits me to write the way that works best for me – thanks to John for that.
Whether you trade for or draft your QB, most, by definition, are average. Finding the right guy, coaching him up, training him, adapting the system to him and putting him in a position to be successful hasn’t been something that the NFL has been all that good at, surprisingly. I’ve never quite gotten that – people talk about it being a QB driven league, but they don’t necessarily do the things that are required for that to be an advantage. People can be strange…
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 1:46 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Great Post Doc. Rec'd....I am Rec'd your comment as well.....I think you hit the nail in the barn...
What you mean by this UB3?
Well, do to the off season problems, that we can trace back a couple of years and…
Well, the short answer is, we have became a Disfunctional Fan Base. Doc. and others
have talked around this, but the fact is….Their are some of us that are afraid to put our hopes
and dreams in the hands of ( what some perceive Orton ) as an ordinary guy.
He’s not a star! He’s not famous! He, just looks & talks ordinary, and whats worse, He takes
responsibility for himself and his team.
Just messing with ya, Lifes short, be happy, you could wake up and be a faders fan… now that
takes Fandom to a whole different level. lol
Go Broncos
Real Power, comes with the realization that One cannot change the Moment;
only ones perception of it: Atitude! JQM
by UB3 on Nov 9, 2009 2:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Emmett, you said the same things I've tried to say for months
although you said them better. I knew we had a good QB after the trade. Why? Because I researched him.
Thank you for taking what we have mutually researched and expressing it so eloquently. But, as you noted, “Against ignorance, the gods themselves contend in vain.”
Oh, and your comment, “Ignoring history is being fated to repeat it”: I’m stealing that one . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 3:12 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Here, here AZ I researched him too and found the same things!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 3:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly, most of those who supported Orton early actually did some research.
Which makes the question of why people didn’t support him even more interesting. By the way, both comments regarding ignorance were either borrowed (the first) or altered to fit (the second). Bartlett’s Quotations and I are old and pretty dear friends.
Little is more heinous than ignorance, and less still is more beneficial than understanding. Goethe said that nothing is more terrible than ignorance in action. I think that he was right. Publilius Syrus pointed out that half knowledge is worse than ignorance and that is often true as well. It will certainly lead you to some startling conclusions.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Two comments to the contrary
First, the o-line for the Broncs is still one of the team’s strongest units if not their strongest. Don’t bag on the o-line unless and until you give them all the credit they deserve for the six wins. Second. Orton does not have the arm strength of most of the top flight QBs in the league. That doesn’t mean he can’t lead a winning team, but it does mean the running game has to be good to avoid the third and longs and it also means the defense has to keep them in the game. Orton is simply a cog in the system. He is not the system.
by The Wad on Nov 9, 2009 3:32 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the excellent examples, Wad
Orton does not have the arm strength of most of the top flight QBs in the league. That doesn’t mean he can’t lead a winning team, but it does mean the running game has to be good to avoid the third and longs and it also means the defense has to keep them in the game. Orton is simply a cog in the system.
In order:
1. You don’t know that. You have to define who is ‘top flight’ (good luck) and then develop an accepted way of deciding the issue. That’s well beyond what any of us can or will do. Orton has the arm strength to make any throw in the NFL game, some better than others. Since he’s capable of making any throw that he’ll be asked to make, there is no point to the argument anyway. McD has pointed out repeatedly that his arm strength is much greater than the average fan’s perspective. He would know.
2. So, who is this mystery QB who doesn’t need a decent running game and a quality defense? Every QB needs those things. They also need a decent line and god receivers. So?
3. Every player is a cog in some system. That includes Manning and Brady. Again – this kind of thing is pointless. If you can back up something specific with some stats – GREAT.
Last? The O-line has been far less this year than last. There may be several reasons – different system and schemes, injuries, etc – but you can either break down stats or film to show this and you’ll get the same answer. Noticing that doesn’t make me less of a fan of them. If you’ve read any of my material, you’ll know that no one is more fond of the O-line than I am. They’re still struggling in some situations. Life’s like that.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:25 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Good receivers are sufficient. God receivers are preferable.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:25 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Without question!
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Amen.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Nov 9, 2009 4:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
1,2,3
1. You are right. Even McD admits KO does not have the best arm strength in the league. You are also right that arm strength is not the biggest factor in qb success over the years. KO will keep winning and his arm isn’t going to get any better.
2. Neither Manning not Brady have strong running attacks right now and they still keep winning. They also are not generally found on the list of strongest arms in the league. That doesn’t mean they don’t have a larger range of throws they make well than KO. The strong armed Elway didn’t win the big one till he had a running game. There are many factors that go into offensive success.
3. Right again.
You are picking on the wrong guy. I agree with most of your points. But get off your high horse a little. Your point about stats is way over the top.
by The Wad on Nov 9, 2009 4:52 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Why's that?
I think that asking someone about backing up a position with stats is pretty normal around MHR. This ‘issue’ of Orton’s arm strength is constantly coming up and it just doesn’t stand up to analysis. I’m not sure when you claimed that JM admitted that Orton doesn’t have the best arm strength. When was that? I try to keep up, but I may have missed that. The fact is, when the subject is raised, McD just laughs – he knows better. It’s not that his arm strength is a problem. The design of the offense precludes many of the plays that members and fans seem to ‘want’ to see.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 5:31 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Orton has a stronger arm than both Peyton Manning and Brady.
This is not just me talking. It is proven. As a senior in high school, Orton beat the strong-armed Jon Kitna, who was already a pro, in a QB passing contest. Orton heaved the ball 74 yards that day.
In the 2002 QB Challenge, Manning threw the ball 68 yards,and Brady threw it 67.
Now, to which “top flight” QBs are you referring? Favre? That’s a no-brainer: few QBs have Favre’s strength. Who else? Maybe “top
flight” QBs such as Cutler or JaMarcus Russell, maybe? How about the retired Jeff George or Ryan Leaf?—They had cannons.
How about Joe Montana?—OOPS, he didn’t have one of those “cannons,” did he? My bad . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 3:48 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Orton has a stronger arm than both Peyton Manning and Brady.
This is not just me talking. It is proven. As a senior in high school, Orton beat the strong-armed Jon Kitna, who was already a pro, in a QB passing contest. Orton heaved the ball 74 yards that day.
In the 2002 QB Challenge, Manning threw the ball 68 yards,and Brady threw it 67.
Now, to which “top flight” QBs are you referring? Favre? That’s a no-brainer: few QBs have Favre’s strength. Who else? Maybe “top
flight” QBs such as Cutler or JaMarcus Russell, maybe? How about the retired Jeff George or Ryan Leaf?—They had cannons.
How about Joe Montana?—OOPS, he didn’t have one of those “cannons,” did he? My bad . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 3:49 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Orton has a stronger arm than both Peyton Manning and Brady.
This is not just me talking. It is proven. As a senior in high school, Orton beat the strong-armed Jon Kitna, who was already a pro, in a QB passing contest. Orton heaved the ball 74 yards that day.
In the 2002 QB Challenge, Manning threw the ball 68 yards,and Brady threw it 67.
Now, to which “top flight” QBs are you referring? Favre? That’s a no-brainer: few QBs have Favre’s strength. Who else? Maybe “top
flight” QBs such as Cutler or JaMarcus Russell, maybe? How about the retired Jeff George or Ryan Leaf?—They had cannons.
How about Joe Montana?—OOPS, he didn’t have one of those “cannons,” did he? My bad . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 3:49 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I'm a Newbee!
I’ve been reading MHR for about a month now and just signed up to put in my 2 cents for what it’s worth…
I was as upset as the next fan when Shannan got canned. To me, he WAS the Broncos. Because of that, I instantly didn’t like McDaniel’s. Then the whole Culter soap opera didn’t help McDaniel’s popularity in my eyes. But once the dust settled, I really looked at the situation and realized we will never know what happened behind closed doors. I agree with a recent post that Pat Bowlen and the rest of the organization want what’s best for the team, and they do everything in their power to make each year a success. I am impressed with McDaneil’s philosophy that NO player is above the team and he did what he has to to support that philosophy. After that trade went down I accepted the fact that the Broncos were going to be a WHOLE new team. I put my faith in Bowlen’s decision go fire his long time friend and go with the new young gun, took comfort in the success McDaniel’s had in NE and after talking to a few of my Chicago fans, I felt pretty good about acquiring Orton.
I am a purist when it comes to team loyalty. Once I got over my initial knee jerk reaction to all the off-season personal changes, I put my full support behind McDaniel’s. And if he picked Orton to be our QB, then he was our man and he also had my full support.
I expected a slow rebuilding phase I was expected a year or two of marginal playing. All I really wanted was a winning season this year, a play off appearance next season and then start thinking about a Super Bowl. So I am more that happy to be sitting at 6-1 ( 7-1 after tonight!) This team, as a whole, has exceeded any expectation I ever had going into the season and I could not be happier. Orton has done a TREMENDOUS job for us and the numbers reflect that.
So for all those Orton haters, all I gotta say is He is our guy. No matter what you think, or how much you dislike it. He is our QB and you support your team, not matter what!
GO BRONCOS!
by Just Jenny on Nov 9, 2009 3:51 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
1st post Jenny?
Well thanks for jumping on. Great comment too.
by bowma101 on Nov 9, 2009 4:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to MHR!!!!
I appreciate your opinion and that was a lot like I was about this whole situation. You basically wrote out my feelings as all of that was going down.
That said, you don’t have to accept Orton because “he is our guy”. Just because he is the QB of this team doesn’t mean you have to blindly accept McD’s decision because of McD’s other decision’s successes. At MHR, we like to take analysis and form opinions instead of blindly accepting what is happening. As long as opinion is backed up by reasons, that is.
With THAT being said (lol), I do believe that Orton is the right QB for this team. He doesn’t make bad decisions and he isn’t wreckless with the ball. He’s smart and can read defenses. I believe that he will improve the longer he is in this system. The sky is the limit for Orton.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Nov 9, 2009 4:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
We love it when folks sign up just to jump on a thread
Welcome to MHR!
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed . Welcome Jenny and keep them coming!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 5:43 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
JJ
I had the exact same reaction. I’ll always have a soft spot for Shanny, and the bootleg play, which I sorely miss. It’s been a season of adjustments for me, but I’ve learned a lot from this site about patience and information gathering. It sounds like you’ve got some of those qualities innately. Ask some of the members here about my first posts… pure internet fanboy bile. Keep up the well written and well reasoned posts and you’ll be a regular in no time.
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 4:27 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome aboard, Jenny!
Agree with your comments, as well.
" Life is what happens while you're making other plans "
by hairybear on Nov 9, 2009 4:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Kudoes for the definitive KO article, Bea... err, Emmett!
Kyle has the trust of his teammates and coaches, as well as many of the fans. This is a TEAM and they take the good and bad as a unit. I very nearly let my disappointment of the loss, coupled with the “Gameday Thread” comments ruin my week. I suspect that “adult beverages” combined with a bad day for the Broncos set them off. Many were not regular commentors on the site, but all wanted someone’s head on a platter.
Kyle Orton and 10 others are sometimes struggling to run this offense.. they’ll get it together soon, just wait and see. We are, however, 6-1. Patience, people!
Thanks, Em, for the superlative effort! Rec’d.
Go Broncos!
" Life is what happens while you're making other plans "
by hairybear on Nov 9, 2009 4:03 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
CRAP!! My comment wouldn't post, and I kept trying to post it!
Well, I guess I made my point . . . three times!!
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 4:08 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
nice try
not your fault on the posting mechanics, but i think you are pushing things a bit far here. this isn’t ‘02 or high school and overall distance does not a strong arm make. If Orton could air it out like either Brady or Manning I don’t think you would see the coverage you will see tonight against Pitt.
by The Wad on Nov 9, 2009 4:23 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh? And what coverage will I see tonight?
Do you have any documentation, such as I posted? I guess you missed the part where I researched Kyle Orton?
No,w, you’ve told us what you think. Do you have any documented facts, or do you just expect us to accept your unsupported comments as gospel?
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 4:53 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'll go with the "gospel". Thanks.
by The Wad on Nov 9, 2009 5:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess you don't. So I'll just make my exit and look for someone who is interested in facts.
Thanks for playing . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 9, 2009 5:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I would've agreed after a fourth.
I just can’t help but feel like I’ve been left hanging…
by legendarywalton on Nov 9, 2009 4:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Bear, Great Article
Just got back for the day.
I don’t know who this lebowski character is, but he sounds suspect to me.
"Wait, let me explain something to you...I'm the Dude. So, that's what you call me. You know, that, or 'His Dudeness,' or 'Duder,' or 'El Duderino,' if you're not into the whole brevity thing."
by TJ Johnson on Nov 9, 2009 4:37 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Very suspect....I think he is a closet Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers fan.......glad you are nothing like him TJ!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 5:50 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I refer to him as El Duderino
As you can tell by my writing, I’m not into the whole brevity thing…..
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
by Emmett Smith on Nov 9, 2009 4:38 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
First Post and First Rec
Thanks for the hard work on this!! Love the site and finally making my first post, im a die hard bronco fan but have been on the East Coast for last 17 yrs thanks to the military.. This site rocks and keeps me in touch with my mile high roots – found it while I was in Iraq last year and been lurking every since. Thanks again!!!
by broncofan8404 on Nov 9, 2009 5:38 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Welcome 8404....partake as much as possible...new fans make this site what it is!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Nov 9, 2009 5:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
The neckbeard abides,man
Just another guy...on the lost highway.
by oncobronco on Nov 9, 2009 5:52 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
The neckbeard abides.........heh.........I like the sound of that.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Nov 9, 2009 6:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
That happens when
there is no running game or pass protection.
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
by AZDynamics on Nov 11, 2009 4:56 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Getting Social With MHR
Web Stuff
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
