Brad's NFL Picks - Week Fourteen - 2009

      Due to a computer fritz, I was unable to do Brad's Picks for Week Thirteen. It was frustrating, but kind of nice to have a week off and not caring who won the games.

     This is from last week - the only part I got finished before my computer went into the shop:

Brad's Picks was 12-4 last week (Week Twelve). The good, bad and ugly from Week Twelve:

     the good:

Denver 26, Giants 6 - Broncos outrushed the Giants 138 to 57.

Packers 34, Detroit 12 - Packers won big like they should over the Lions.

Seahawks 27, St. Louis 17 - Rams have lost 11 straight at home.

Atlanta 20, Buccaneers 17 - Atlanta lost QB Matt Ryan on the first series, and RB Michael Turner in the third quarter, and were lucky to eke out a win.

Cincinnati 16, Browns 7 - Why was the score so close? No turnovers, Bengals dominated the time of possession, and outgained the Browns 306 yards to 169. (210-58 on the ground). Well, division games are like that sometimes.

Philadelphia 27, Redskins 24 - Another unexpectedly close division game.

San Diego 43, Chiefs 14 - A divisional blowout.

San Francisco 20, Jaguars 3 - Jags had won 5 of 6 before this game but couldn't get it going after a long plane ride.

Tennessee 20, Cardinals 17 - Vince Young took his team on a 99 yard drive to score a TD and win the game with no time left. Pretty good job, Mr. Young. Oh, and Chris Johnson had 154 yards on 18 carries, including an 85 yarder for a TD. Take away that long run and he still averaged over 4 per carry.

Minnesota 36, Bears 10 - Bears held Adrian Peterson to 85 yards on 25 carries, so Favre passed for 392 yards (dude's only gone over 400 in a game once).

Baltimore 20, Steelers 17 (OT) - Dennis Dixon subbed for Ben R and went 12-26-1-145 and a TD toss plus a 24 yard run for a TD. But the INT was in OT and resulted in a Ravens FG for the win.

New Orleans 38 , Patriots 17 - Tom Brady threw two INT's. Drew Brees didn't throw any.

     the bad:

Dallas 24, Raiders 7 - Only an incompetent would have picked the Raiders.

Colts 35, Houston 27 - Colts were down by 13 at the half, and by 6 at the end of the third quarter, but were up by 15 with 18 seconds remaining in the game.

    the ugly:

New York Jets 17, Panthers 6 - Jake Delhomme threw four to the Jets.

Buffalo 31, Dolphins 14 - It was Dolphins 14, Buffalo 7 after three quarters.

     Brad's Picks is 127- 49 on the season after Week Twelve. AFC. won three, the NFC won three last week, so it's AFC 25, NFC 21 on the season. Home teams won 13 last week. On the season it's home teams 104, visitors 72.

     here are the results of last week's games, with a few notes:

Jets 19, Buffalo 13 (TNF) - Jets ran for 249 yards against the worst run defense in the league.

Chicago 17, Rams 9 - Jay Cutler threw for 131 yards in the first quarter and just 12 yards the rest of the game.

Raiders 27, Pittsburgh 24 - Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said the Steelers would unleash hell in December, but it looks like they unleashed a little heck instead.

Broncos 44, Kansas City 13 - Division game. Kyle Orton turned the ball over three times and it was still a blowout at Arrowhead.

Eagles 34, Atlanta 7 - Neither Matt Ryan nor Michael Turner played for the Falcons.

Cincinnati 23, Lions 13 - Bengals took care of business at home.

Miami 22, Patriots 21 - Miami QB Chad Henne threw for a career high 335 yards and 2 TD's, and took his team 51 yards for a winning 41 yard FG. with just a minute left in the game. Patriots jumped out to a 14-0 lead early in the 2nd, so where was their defense?

Saints 33, Washington 30 - It took a miracle (missed chip shot FG by the Reds that would have won the game) and OT for the Saints to continue undefeated.

Undeepalis 27, Titans 17 - I'm beginning to think the Colts really want to go undefeated all season.

Carolina 16, Buccaneers 6 - Bucs rookie QB Josh Freeman threw it to a Panther five times.

Jacksonville 23, Texans 18 - Jags won their fifth straight at home, in front of the smallest crowd in franchise history. How does Los Angeles Jaguars sound?

Chargers 30, Cleveland 23 - It was 27- 7 at the end of three quarters.

New York Giants 31, Cowboys 24 - TD's on a 74 yard pass from Manning to Brandon Jacobs (most of the yards were after the catch) and a 79 yard punt return by Domenik Hixon were the difference in this game.

Seattle 20, Forty Niners 17 - Seahawks won on a 30 yard FG as time ran out.

Arizona 30, Vikings 17 (SNF) - Brett Favre threw zero INT's in November but tossed two in the desert.

Green Bay 27 , Ravens 14 (MNF) - 23 penalties for a total of 310 yards (second most in league history) made this a real fun game at Lambeau.

     So Brad's Picks is still 127-49 on the season. Last week it was AFC 1, NFC 1, so on the season it's AFC 26, NFC 22. Home teams were 10-6, so on the season it's Home 114, Visitors 78.

      On to Week Fourteen:

     the Thursday night game:

Pittsburgh (6-6) at Cleveland (1-11) - Division game. Will the Steelers unleash heck on the Browns? They will probably be without Troy Polamalu again, and Hines Ward pulled a hammy last Sunday and probably won't play, and starting CB William Gay has a concussion and probably won't play. Steelers have lost four in a row (Bengals, at Kansas City, at Baltimore, and Raiders). Maybe the Steelers didn't get ready for the Raiders after a big loss at Baltimore, but they should have gotten ready after the loss to Kansas City. Still, a division game against a weak team like the Browns is good medicine. Steelers fans travel as well as any bunch of fans, and I bet there are more Steelers fans at the game than Browns fans. I'll take the Steelers.

     the Sunday 11:00 MST games:

Seattle (5-7) at Houston (5-7) - Seahawks are 1-5 on the road this season. Texans are better than their record.

Green Bay (8-4) at Chicago (5-7) - Division game. Packers held Ray Rice to just 54 yards on the ground last week. Ravens had just 66 total ground yards, on 21 carries (16 yards on three scrambles by Joe Flacco). Weather should be decent - about 30 degrees, maybe a little sunshine. Once the Packers shut down the Bears run game, Jay Cutler will throw a few INT's, and I'll take the Packers on the road.

Detroit (2-10) at Baltimore (6-6) - Baltimore got their run game shut down at Lambeau last week, but they also shut down the Packers ground game. Lions QB Matt Stafford is still ailing from the dislocated left shoulder, and may not play. Whether or not he does, Baltimore will win this game.

New Orleans (12-0) at Atlanta (6-6) - Division game. Saints Coach Sean Payton has made it clear that the Saints are going after a perfect season. Falcons are a bit beat up, at QB and RB, and it's really hard (read foolish) to pick against a team that is undefeated as late as December. Take the Saints.

Buffalo (4-8) at Kansas City (3-9) - Buffalo has the worst run D in the league, and young RB Jamal Charles looks pretty good for the Chiefs. Chiefs looked pretty good two weeks ago when they beat the Steelers at Arrowhead. Then they tanked at San Diego and at home against the Broncos. But they'll rebound and win this one at Arrowhead.

Carolina (5-7) at New England (7-5) - Weather should be decent by Sunday, but a winter storm on Wednesday caused four Patriots players (Randy Moss and LB's Adalius Thomas, Gary Guyton, and Derrick Burgess) to be late for practice, and they were sent home for the day. Seems a bit harsh, considering, but maybe Belichick is a bit cranky after losing to the Dolphins (Pats have lost three of their last four games) and seeing that he has just a one game lead over the Fins and the Jets. Patriots defense is suddenly suspect - no pass rush, for one thing, but they still have given up only three rushing TD's all year. Carolina has benched Jake Delhomme and 3rd year QB Matt Moore played pretty good last week (14-20-1-161), but that was against a poor Buc defense in Carolina. I figure you gotta take the Patriots at home in what should be a good game.

New York Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay (1-11) - Tough call. But I'll take the Jets and their ground game against the 1-11 Bucs and their rookie QB who threw 5 INT's last week. Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez won't play, or at least won't start, with two sore knees, but Kellen Clemens has been around a few years.

Miami (6-6) at Jacksonville (7-5) - Tough call. Jaguars have won six of the last seven, and five straight at home. They have a tough run defense but a suspect secondary (which should be helped by the good run defense). They also have Maurice Jones-Drew, the 4th best rusher in the league. Fins started the year with three straight losses (at Atlanta; Undeeplis, and San Diego). Their other three losses have been to the Saints, at Patriots and at Bills. QB Chad Henne had his best outing last week in New England and should make some throws against the Jags. This is a game I'd like to watch, but I'll take the more experienced David Garrard over the young Chad Henne and will take the Jags at home.

Cincinnati (9-3) at Minnesota (10-2) - Tough call. Bengals are second in the league against the run, so the Vikings need to get Adrian Peterson going early or it will all be up to Favre, but it might be hard to do - Cards held AP to 19 yards on 13 carries last week and you know haw good the Bengals run D is. This is another game I'd like to watch. Bengals have Cedric Benson back (he moved the chains last week against the lions with 110 on 36). Both teams have great defenses, great QB's, great RB's and receivers. Neither had a great game last week (Cincy beat the Lions by just 10, Vikings lost by 13 in the desert). I have no way to call this so will go with the Vikings at home.

Denver (8-4) at Undeepalolis (12-0) - Colts have tied the regular season win streak set by the Patriots at 21 (Colts finished 2008 with 9 straight wins, then lost in the playoffs at San Diego in OT). They've also tied the best record for wins in a decade (113) set by the Forty Niners in the 90's. Think they don't want this game? Broncos have put together two good games after a four game losing streak, and seem to have regained their early season form. They want this game also, because they need it to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot, and also, well, just because. Broncos have the best pass defense the Colts will have played against this year, and I think the Broncos can run successfully against them. But it's really hard (read foolish) to pick against a team that is undefeated as late as December. But I'm going to do it because the Colts have struggled against 3-4 defenses, the Broncos will be able to run against them, I think the Broncos are peaking, and also just because.

     the 2:05 MST games:

St. Louis (1-11) at Tennessee (5-7) - Chris Johnson is on pace for 2,012 yards this season for the Titans. You don't even need to know that to decide who to pick at home in this one.

Washington (3-9) at Oakland (4-8) - Raiders are pumped after beating the Champs in Pittsburgh. Reds are either angry or deflated after the stunning loss at home in OT to the Saints. Raiders turned to Bruce Gradkowski for their QB, and the young guy out of Toledo (who's bounced around the league for a couple years), has been playing pretty good - 20-33-0-308 and three TD's last week - that's the first time a Raider QB has thrown for over 300 yards in a game since 2004. (Shall we go ahead and say it? JaMarcus Russell - Biggest Bust Ever). Raiders are 2-1 with Big Bruce at QB, 2-7 with Big Bust at QB. Reds played their hearts out last week against the Saints, but the football Gods turned from them and they lost. If this game was in Washington, I'd take the Reds, but it's not and I'm taking the Raiders.

     the 2:15 MST game:

San Diego (9-3) at Dallas (8-4) - Cowboys lost at New York last week, but gave up TD's on two long plays or probably would have won. Tony Romo was 41-55-0-392 and three TD passes. Chargers gave up 271 passing yards to Brady Quinn at Cleveland (Quinn threw 45 times and completed 25, with no INT's but three TD's). Some of those numbers came after the Chargers had built a 27-7 lead at the end of three quarters, so maybe the Chargers went to sleep a little, but I'll take the Cowboys at home.

     the SNF game:

Philadelphia (8-4) at New York Giants (7-5) - Division game. Should be a really good game. Both teams are right in the hunt for the division title, along with the Cowboys. Giants started 5-0, then went 1-5, then whupped the Boys at the Meadowlands last week. Yes, they had the two big plays from Jacobs and Hixon, but they did hold the Boys to 45 yards on 23 carries. But even so, Romo passed for 379 yards. Eli Manning did pass for 241 yards but 95 were on two big plays, and he was only 11-25 with an INT. Eagles had a bit of a laugher in Atlanta against a wounded Falcons team. I'm taking the Eagles here. It was Eagles 40, Giants 17 in Week 8.

     the MNF game:

Arizona (8-4) at San Francisco (5-7) - Division game. Cardinals are the bomb. They laid the wood to the Vikings last week, and should be talked about in the same breath as the other top teams in the league. Niners are developing behind Mike Singletary but have a ways to go (they lost by three at Seattle after a great game by QB Alex Smith - but his receivers dropped nine or so passes). Take the Cardinals.