MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (2009)

For example, a team could have a poor pass defense stat because teams throw against them all of the time – simply because the team is so good they always have a lead. I wouldn’t take the run game of IND for granted, but given the excellence of Manning (who is truly a living legend on our time), I wouldn’t consider the run game of IND much of an issue.

There was a time (for a few years) where runners set up the run for Manning. Manning would then use play action and tear teams apart. Frankly, Manning has shown he doesn’t even need the running game to entice defenses. He’s just that good.

I agree on Clady vs Freeney being a key. But I also think that Denver’s RT is a match-up to watch as well. Pass protection will be a key for both teams.

As far as pressure on QBs, different QBs handle pressure differently. With some QBs, it is nice to collapse the pocket from outside because the QB is good at making plays by scrambling to the outside. But with a QB like Manning, it might be better to create pressure from the inside-out. I would like to make Manning run. I expect Denver’s blitzing schemes to reflect this.

Excellent points AF!

Of course, McDaniels addressed this in a press conference already. Substitutions may be limited this game, but there are still counters.

First, no-huddle hurts defenses but isn’t ideal for offenses either. It can only be done so much before an offense gets burned (which is why offenses don’t always run no huddle). I expect Denver to continue rotations, but to do so less frequently and to have rotation packages pre-set on the sideline. This is a technique that Denver used in the NE game to great effect, even having the susbstitutions waiting in a group on the sideline as a ploy to fool NE into a timeout.

But yes, no-huddle is definately the way to go for IND against a team like Denver. It should benefit IND much more than DEN.

id say they are now coasting and that is not good going down the streach

Despite the great players in many positions all over the field, this is a game that (once again) should be determined in the trenches.

You’ll note that Denver is a team that often has players moving around right up until the snap. In fact, on many plays they look like they aren’t ready to me (but of course, they ARE).

Manning goes up to the line with two or three alternate plays in mind, and uses some of his theatrics to call out protections, and the rest to either switch the play or throw the defense. I don’t think he’ll be fooled much by pass coverage looks, but the blitz looks should be more difficult than what most teams throw his way.

Bear in mind that IND also has a terrific OL, even without the genius of Manning directing them.

I remember a few plays when only one guy had his hand on the ground… everyone else shifted continually until the snap. I expect to see that from the Broncos on 3rd and longs… The issue will be getting to 3rd and long.

i have faith with how they have done so far this year in run D. id even say it is right about where it was for our superbowl run in the playoffs

…that is ideal is “dink and dunk”. Throw underneath the coverage and take what the defense gives you.

In other words, run hard and physical, but throw careful and gimmick free. I’m excited to see what Bukhalter and Moreno can do against this defense.

Your fantasy team will find it is quite beatable in the playoffs this week. The hairy and stinky SacTown Beavers are on fire! lol ;-) Alex Smith…lead me to the promised land! lmao, that was one sentence I never thought I’d utter when I picked him up off the wires earlier this year. lol!!!

Couldn’t your last sentenced just have easily been, “IF the Broncos play a very good game they MIGHT win, same with the Colts.”?

Steve just put a little more detail on it than you did.

In fact, I pointed out that we are the toughest team left on the INDY schedule. It is the number one point under KEYS for the Colts.

Here is what I wrote FROM the Colts perspective:

This game is the toughest game left on the schedule. Don’t take it for granted. Forget about going undefeated, and forget about the playoffs being a lock. Denver is better that their record suggests, and they are getting better. The Steelers just learned a hard lesson about trying to beat an opponent in cruise control.

In other words, this is the toughest game on the Colts schedule, not just the Broncos.

…a team will address a talented, receiving TE by either using the LOLB or strong safety for coverage. Denver’s heavy pressure scheme attempts to circumvent this problem by creating pressure on the QB that forces TEs to stay at the line to protect the QB.

My guess is that Denver’s focus will be getting at Manning, and forcing IND to make play calls that account for this pressure (which would keep Clark at home). Here again, if Denver can’t meet their prime key (pressure on Manning), then Manning gets more weapons (like Clark).

That guy is just plain MONEY. I’m curious to see if we play man coverage and dedicate a defender to him.

He has been effective shutting Gonzales down last year against the Cheifs. He also has had success against Gates and Witten this year. I expect to see us in a big Nickel a lot with Barrett on Clark all game.

Here is what I wrote in a comment a moment ago (probably as you were writing your own).

As far as pressure on QBs, different QBs handle pressure differently. With some QBs, it is nice to collapse the pocket from outside because the QB is good at making plays by scrambling to the outside. But with a QB like Manning, it might be better to create pressure from the inside-out. I would like to make Manning run. I expect Denver’s blitzing schemes to reflect this.

While Denver gets great pressure from the edges, DC Nolan will likely focus on trying to create pressure on the pocket from inside-out. This is why Manning is more susceptible to pressure from the middle. Pressure from the outside keeps him in hte pocket where Manning is comfortable. With a scrambling QB (like Elway) you DON’T want pressure from the inside, because you need to contain the run and throw effect.

So yes, I fully expect Nolan to focus on the interior line.

As for Denver’s run game, I expect more runs up the gut than to the edges. I think a power running game beats IND easier than speed. In zones, much of the field is covered. Denver would be wise (in my opinion) to just ignore the Freeny / Mathis run stopping issue and focus instead on using the run to draw defenders to the center of the field.

In our game plan, we aren’t going for “home run” rushes that gain a lot of yards. We want to take time off the clock, and move the ball on every play (even if it is for short yardage).

So I guess I would side step the issue of the run stopping abilities of the IND DEs and instead just focus on what we want to accomplish. I would favor running the gut for this game.

one your first thing i dont remember saying that was probably (shak n bake mabye but i dont recall it said) :)

second mathis and freeney are pretty good at stopping the run, his size helps him with that if that is what you were refering to

But, that was like 2 or 3 years ago. In the NFL 2 or 3 years could be like a life time of difference.

…I would run the ball all day too. Good call!

They put themselves in position to win by running the ball. Make no mistake. They lost with bad 4 minute offense, particularly throwing a questionable incomplete pass late in the game.

the fact is that Maimi had much of their success by using the wildcat , is not the same as orthodox running ,Also the Colts got rid of Ed Johnson , he was extra fat and slow and that hurt us in Miami, but after that teh Colts Run D have been tested by Chris Johnson twice and Strong RBs like Stephen Jackson and Frank Gore, the notion that is easy to run all over the Colts has been more a perception brought in by the media than actual facts, i will say the most important thing to do against the Colts is score points and lots of them. Our redzone defense has been really good.

…great minds think alike. I agree with your take, and very much disagree with the ESPN take. Their analysis seems to start with the assumtpion that the Colts have already won, then built the approach around that assumption.

Not to sound vain, but I read my own stuff more than I read ESPN. lol

I’m probably butchering the specifics in terms of X’s and O’s, but the Colts’ defensive strategy reminds me a lot of the ’97-98 Broncos (excluding the Cover-2 aspect obviously). The Broncos of that vintage also had an undersized, fast defense that got to sell out, hard, against the pass once the offense put up big numbers. Their talent was just OK, and Greg Robinson was no scheming master. But the approach was effective: bend, without breaking, early on, then get aggressive and force mistakes to seal the lead.

That’s been my impression, anyway. If I’m missing an obvious point, I’d appreciate being corrected.

Thanks as always, HT

we don’t go to fantasy football writers for cogent reality analysis. ;-) Makes me appreciate MHR that much more. We’re talking about a team who had one running back win rookie of the week award, for the 4th time, this past week while the other won FedEx Ground player of the week. And they have to control the clock. While maybe the running game won’t be successful, that analysis is flawed six ways to Sunday.

You can definitely move the chains on the long field by powering-up. But you’ll struggle to score against them if you can’t execute both pass and run at a high level and keep them guessing at all times. When they guess wrong, they can look pretty weak,which we saw against Miami. Miami just couldn’t play offense on the short field as well as Indy played defense on the short field. Trading TDs for FGs is a recipe for defeat.

Another thing that Indy always seems to bring is an ability to continually ratchet up the intensity level for 4 quarters. You have to match that intensity, so rotating players is a big key.

The over pursuit part I mean, the way the Broncos defense did the same thing last year.

They’re susceptible because they’re small up front, and because the back 7 knows they really need to be involved in run support. You have this exactly right. Pound them, and run a lot of play action.

But continuing to play balanced, whether the run is working or NOT is important. Indy commits extra hats to stopping the run, as others have pointed out, and if they believe YOU still believe in the run, they’re obliged to honor the play fake; otherwise, they risk getting run over. Indy would love to make you 1-D, and that must be avoided, unless they’re being totally stupid and daring you to throw all day, in which case, you must throw and complete your passes.

We all know that in addition to our great ground game, McD is running the NE offense in Denver. Because of this, I believe that there’s an unspoken strategy that could play to our advantage: McD has gamefilm between the recent NE and Indy matchup.

Since we’re effectively running the same offense as NE, I would not be shocked to discover on Sunday, that he’s used that film as a blueprint for what to, and not to do on Sunday.

No offense to the Patriots fans, but I could not be happier NE has played them first. =)

An assistant coach, or even a player (even at the pro level) watches those subs you talked about in your point, so you’ve got that right.

As far as the timing of subs, a lot depends on the situation. There are cases where subs are ready to go in advance, and others where subs are called up quickly. There are too many factors to go into here, such as coaching style, down and distance, length of drive, player specialists, etc. The subbing though happens right away (while the pile is unpacking) in some cases, and at the last moment in others (when the coach decides what he’s going to call).

But my excitement for this game is based on the idea that this isn’t a locked up game for Indy either. I’m excited too!

I used to travel 80 in PA years ago quite a bit. I bet it is treacherous right now!

There is a good possibility we get to meet at the playoffs again, so i am not even worried if we lose this game , im on the other hand very optimistic that the Broncos wont beat us twice, so if you ask me , is ok to to hand us the loss on sunday

lol

…strive to win every game. But yes, it is a major relief when the first loss comes. It settles down the players, and gives the coaching staff better film to work with.

If Denver has the early lead, it really doesn’t affect the Colts. They’ll continue their air attack until they get ahead. But if IND gets the early lead, Denver would have to re-adjust. Denver wants to play a balanced game, or perhaps even a run heavy game. If IND gets the early lead, Denver has to start passing more.

So while both teams would want to score first, IND gets a better benefit from doing it than Denver does (in my opinion).

I think the Chiefs are much better off than most “experts” believe. I’ve lived in MO for the past 25 years and I get alot of Chiefs grief LOL.

Things will be much better now that Peterson and Edwards are gone…I truly believe that. Denver had a good base roster to start with this year, and that’s something that puts you ahead of schedule on “rebuilding”. I think the Chiefs will be back in the hunt within a year or 2 at the most!

It is hard to beat any team twice in a season. The reason (in my opinion) is that coaches have more to work with from film in a game lost than won. The losing team has more to pick up on, and know what needs to be done differently.

Of course, Denver is going to try to win anyway. They want the shot at getting a higher seed, and the confidence boost is valuable too. Frankly, in this case, I think Denver knows what needs to be done to win. They just need to execute better than INDY does. Of course, that’s a tall order. Still, I think it can be done with Denver’s system more easily than other teams.

I bet there’s a meaning behind having 18 points to the game. lol

To be fair to the Colts, I disagree with one thing:

The Broncos have been death to #2 and #3 wide receivers on the year. They’ll have to match up with Wayne, Clark, and Addai, but the numbers say it could be a quiet day for Collie and Garcon.

I think if Wayne, Clark, and Addai do attract the most attention, Collie and Garcon will be able to contribute. If the Broncos can ever substitute into a nickel on 3rd down, then Ty Law could change that, but Mr. Manning will try to have none of it, I’m sure.

I find it pretty funny he spends a lot of time on the match ups repeating how good Denver ranks then says he doesn’t thing they are any good???
A good read though, thanks for the link