Yards per TD

by wabisabi on Dec 16, 2009 2:17 PM MST

I remember earlier in the season reading about a statistic based upon the number of yards a team travels (offensive yards from scrimmage) compared to the number of offensive (as opposed to special teams or defensive) touchdowns. I got to wondering how the Broncos were doing with this stat now, compared to the other teams in the league.

I first looked just at the Indy game. The Broncos needed 186 yards of offense for each touchdown they scored (372 yards and 2 touchdowns). The Colts needed just 78 yards of offense for each touchdown (312 yards and 4 touchdowns).

For the season, the Broncos are averaging 197 yards of offense for each touchdown they score. The average Yds/TD for teams with a winning record is 146. For teams with a losing record, the average is 189. Of the teams with at least two more wins than losses, the average is 138 (not including the Broncos), and for teams with two more losses than wins, the average is 207.

The best three teams are the Saints (113), Colts (118) and Vikings (119).

The worst three teams are Browns (239), Raiders (247) and Rams (290).

The whole list is here:

Saints        113
Colts        118
Vikings        119
Falcons        129
Chargers    136
Cardinals    139
Patriots    139
Eagles        140
Ravens        141
49ers        141
Packers        143
Giants        146
Texans        147
Dolphins    148
Jets        163
Cowboys        164
Bears        165
Bengals        168
Titans        170
Jaguars        172
Steelers    172
Redskins    175
Seahawks    179
Panthers    191
Broncos        197
Lions        197
Buccaneers    198
Bills        199
Chiefs        199
Browns        239
Raiders        247
Rams        290

I'm not sure what this really means, but it looks like the Broncos are not very efficient at scoring touchdowns with this offense.

-Wabisabi

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

That is a sobering stat.

This makes me semi-hopeful, though. We know where the problem is. Turning long drives into TDs. We know we “can” move the ball. We just need to turn those yards into points and we are good to go.

It is scary that we are down there with the likes of the lions, panthers and bucs, but at the same time, we are the only team in the bottom third of that stat with a winning record. If we improve our redzone efficiency, that will equal more wins, as these things often do. How we have won so many records while having terrible stats like these, I don’t know.

One thing I do know is this. Despite the fact we are so low in yards per TD, we are still winning games. I’d rather be at the top of the win column than at the top of the yards per TD column.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Girl, you don't need to be a 10, as long as you have a good smile and smell like bacon.

by Troy Hufford on Dec 16, 2009 2:32 PM MST reply actions

Wabisabi, great stuff!!!...I have to always rec the stats guys!!! I liked it a lot, so I ran a correlation coefficient on the following two variables

1) your stat
2) team wins

granted, In only ran it over 1 season, so it’s a small sample size, but the correlation was -.78. So there is a strong negative correlation between your stat and winning. Essentially, one could make the argument that this stat alone described 62% of a team’s wins.

The bigger question is why? It’s due to the fact that your particular stat incorporates both red zone efficiency(TD vs. FGs) and yards/play into it. So if my team is always getting FGs, they will have to travel another drive to try for that TD. There are also good correlations with both of these stats to winning. Further, teams that would have a positive TO ratio would probably have shorter fields in which to travel, which would also help this ratio. With the Colts, however, it’s because they are efficient in the red zone, even if they have a long field to travel.

A quick thought experiment might drive this home. Two teams. Each has two drives. And each starts on the 25 yard line. My first team scores two touchdowns and travels 150 total yards. Their number is 75. The second team scores twice as well, but both FGs. And let’s say they are stopped at the 10 yard line. Their ratio would be 130 and counting…

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Dec 16, 2009 2:57 PM MST reply actions

Defense - yards per touchdown

The Broncos defense has allowed a touchdown for every 189 yards of offensive they have given up. That is that the opposing team has had to march down the field for 189 yards for every touchdown they score against us.

For our wins, the average is an astounding 368 yards per touchdown.
For our losses, we allow a TD every 118 yards.

I haven’t had a chance to crunch any other teams yet.

by wabisabi on Dec 16, 2009 3:21 PM MST up reply actions

now that is a really sobering stat!

by DE_BroncoFan on Dec 17, 2009 10:48 AM MST up reply actions

Two other things

It also takes into account penalties, because teams that play sloppily have to earn a lot of yards twice.

It also is a good measure of the field position battle. Special teams keeping the ball on their end, defenses getting three and outs.

by Fan in Exile on Dec 16, 2009 3:05 PM MST reply actions

great stuff!

But in TJs example, a team that threw two interceptions from the 10 would have the same ratio. I think the team with the 2 field goals did a better job. What about simply looking at yards per point instead?

"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
Philip K. Dick

by azdenfan on Dec 16, 2009 3:28 PM MST reply actions

AZ, good additional insight...everything is relative

by TJ Johnson on Dec 16, 2009 3:32 PM MST up reply actions

Good point.

I think a combination of offensive and defensive yds/TD should be examined. In Denver’s wins, the Broncos forced opposing teams to drive 368 yards for every TD allowed. At the same time, Denver managed to score a TD for every 171 yards we drove. That is a big difference; the opposing team needed to move the ball nearly an extra 200 yards for every TD.

In the games the Broncos lost, we allowed a TD every 188 yards, yet could only score a TD for every 292 yards. In these games, we lost the stats battle by over 100 yards per TD.

I think if nothing else, this is a good measure of how effectively the offensive unit scores TDs. And it is perhaps a better measure of how effective the defense is at not allowing TDs.

Our offense’s best game, from this perspective was against the Chiefs. We scored a TD every 106 yards, and did not allow a TD (infinity yards).

by wabisabi on Dec 16, 2009 4:01 PM MST up reply actions

correction (math is hard, but typing is harder)

….
In the games the Broncos lost, we allowed a TD every 118 yards, yet could only score a TD for every 292 yards. In these games, we lost the stats battle by over 175 yards per TD.

by wabisabi on Dec 16, 2009 4:04 PM MST up reply actions

I agree totally

It is as relevant for the defense as the offense. This is the “bend but don’t break” stat. As for the offense, I think there was a column earlier this year about Mr. Cutler’s problems in the area, it seems he tends to lead offenses that put up a lot of yards without scoring much….

"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
Philip K. Dick

by azdenfan on Dec 16, 2009 7:14 PM MST up reply actions

This is a great stat, I love it! Thanks!

But it is disheartening, too…

by DjBroncos on Dec 16, 2009 4:17 PM MST reply actions

Great job wabi and rec'd.

We can see how our offense is doing when they don’t score. It would be interesting to find out where we would be with the Giants and Chiefs game. Probably dead last? We are terrible at scoring! That’s the bottom line.

This just in…Chris Henry of the Cincinnati Bengals is in critical condition after falling out of the back of a pick up truck. Herny was found in the street by police and as bad as it is Homicide Detectives are investigating. He must have head trauma from the incident. This is a blow to the Bengals and he will be missed for the rest of the season, if that is the case.

by bfree2bronc on Dec 16, 2009 5:07 PM MST reply actions

rec'd for a good read & discussion starter

An antithesis stat to that is the number yards a team travels before throwing an interception.

The two top yardage teams: Indy & NO have an interception every 278.9 and 383.2 yards, respectively. The Broncos by comparison experience an interception every 363 yards.

Have no clue how this relates to our overall offensive performance (if at all) but it’s a fun stat.

For what it’s worth, a certain other team whose final record will mean a great deal to the Broncos have an interception for every 137.4 yards.

"Never give up! Never surrender!" Captain Peter Quincy Taggert in "Galaxy Quest"
"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by Brian Shrout on Dec 17, 2009 5:14 PM MST reply actions

Against the Raiders...

We scored one touchdown and gained 337 yards, making our Yards/TD for this game 337 40 yards worse than our average losing stat, and 140 yards worse than our average. Our defense gave up 2 touchdowns and 343 yards for a defensive 172 Yards/TD, just a litle bit worse than our average. I guess this loss falls on the Offense for failing to convert Red Zone attempts on 3 out of 4 tries.

by wabisabi on Dec 20, 2009 6:13 PM MST reply actions