Brad's NFL Picks - Week Fifteen - 2009

      Brad's Picks was 9-7 last week. Here's the g, b, and u from that.

      the good:

Houston 34, Seahawks 7 - Seahawks are now 1-6 on the road this season. So the good news is that they only have one road game left. The bad news is that the game is in Green Bay in week 16.

Packers 21, Chicago 14 - A pretty good divisional game. Aaron Rogers was just 16-24-0-180 but Jay Cutler tossed a couple INT's and Ryan Grant had a 62 yard run for a TD for the Pack.

Baltimore 48, Lions 3 - Daunte Culpepper was worse than bad for the Lions - 16-34-2-135, and 11 yards on 7 carries.

Saints 26, Atlanta 23 - Saints had their second close call in two weeks in their quest for perfection.

New England 20, Panthers 10 - Randy Moss did his snit thing (1 catch for 16 yards) after being sent home last week (for being late to practice) but the Patriots still won.

Jets 26, Tampa Bay 3 - Bucs rookie QB Josh Freeman threw 3 INT's.

Minnesota 30, Bengals 10 - After getting whupped in the desert the week before, the Vikings looked much better at the home dome.

Tennessee 47, Rams 7 - Titans lost Vince Young to a hammy, but Kerry Collins was 11-19-0-154.

Eagles 45, New York Giants 38 (SNF) - Giants gained more yards (by 138) and dominated time of possession but lost 4 fumbles to the Eagles.

     the bad:

Cleveland 13, Steelers 6 - It was really cold in Cleveland, and the Browns were able to run the ball and the Steelers weren't.

Bills 16, Kansas City 10 - Bills lost two fumbles and an INT. Chiefs QB Cassell tossed 4 INT's.

Chargers 20, Dallas 17 - This was a very close game in all statistical categories. Boys did out rush the Chargers - 108 on 27 versus 73 on 31.

Dolphins 14, Jacksonville 10 - Both teams remain in the playoff hunt with 7-6 records.

     the ugly:

Undeeplis 28, Broncos 16 - Kyle Orton was 29-41-277 with 1 INT. Peyton Manning was 20-42-220 with 3 INT's. And Brandon Marshall set an all-time NFL record with 21 catches in a game. But the Colts made the plays when they needed to.

Redskins 34, Oakland 13 - Raiders lost QB Bruce Gradkowski at half-time, and JaMarcus Russell was uber bad in relief.

San Francisco 24, Cardinals 9 - Cardinals looked great two weeks ago in the desert, holding Adrian Peterson to 19 ground yards, but they gave up 167 to Frank Gore last week.

      Brad's Picks is 136 - 56 on the season. It was AFC 5, NFC 2 last week, so on the season it's AFC 31, NFC 24. Home teams were 8-8 last week On the season, it's H 122, V 86. 208 games have been played, 48 to go. Plus the playoffs of course.

     this week:

     the TNF game:

Undeeplace (13-0) at Jacksonville (7-6) - Division game. Colts locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs last week with the win over the Broncos, so the expectation has been that the Colts will rest a lot of players. But head coach Jim Caldwell says no. At least for this game, they'll play it the same as the last 13 games. Peyton Manning says he doesn't want to sit at all. Caldwell did say that health issues would be considered, so a banged up player who would play if it were a playoff game might take a break. I was gonna take the Jags when I thought the Colts would start to sit players like it was the 4th game of the preseason, but now I'll go with the Colts. They might just want to knock the Jags out of the playoff hunt.

     the Saturday game (6:20 MST):

Dallas (8-5) at New Orleans (13-0) - Cowboys have lost two in a row they should have won (at NYG, home vs. the Chargers). Saints have won two they should have lost (at Washington, at Atlanta). Keep this simple and take the Saints as they return to their dome home.

     the 11:00 MST Sunday games:

Miami (7-6) at Tennessee (6-7) - Miami started the season 0-3, Tennessee started 0-6. Chris Johnson is on pace for 2,001 yards this season - Titans are on pace for 2,644 rush yards. Fins are on pace for 2,401 rush yards. Both teams are good at defending the run but neither is good at defending the pass. Aargh. Tough call, but this is Miami's second road game in a row, while Tennessee had an easy one at home against the Rams. Take the Titans.

Arizona (8-5) at Detroit (2-11) - Cardinals have been pretty good on the road this year, and I expect them to rebound from a loss at San Francisco last week.

Atlanta (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6) - Jets lead the league in rush yards (169 per game) and lead the AFC in defense. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are iffy for the Falcons. Take the Jets at home.

Houston (6-7) at St. Louis (1-12) - The Rams held Chris Johnson to 117 on 28 at Tennessee last week, which maybe doesn't sound great but Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing. Rams sent players home on Wednesday because of an outbreak of flu. Take the Texans.

Chicago (5-8) at Baltimore (7-6) - Baltimore is still in the playoff hunt and will win this game.

New England (8-6) at Buffalo (5-8) - Division game. Do the Patriots have serious issues? After Coach Belichick sent four players home for being a few minutes late for practice with a snowstorm going on, Adalius Thomas called Belichick out and was benched for last week's game. Randy Moss then put on a no show in the Panthers game. Meanwhile, the Bills went to Arrowhead and pulled out a win. Brady has a sore finger and sore ribs, but the Patriots are still 1st in the AFC on offense and 6th on defense (Bills are 13th on both). Bills will make the Patriots pay for this, but I can't see the Bills winning.

Cleveland (2-11) at Kansas City (3-10) - Weather should be nippy but decent. It'll seem warm to the Browns who played in sub-zero conditions last week. Browns played a big game, with a win, against the Steelers, and may let down a bit. But their 8 sacks against the Steelers doesn't look good to Matt Cassell, who threw 4 INT's at home last week against the Bills, and who has been sacked 12 times in the last four games. I figure that if the Bills can come to Arrowhead and win, so can the Browns.

San Francisco (6-7) at Philadelphia (9-4) - Eagles are on top of the NFC East and won't lose this one to a Niners team flying cross country after a big win over the Cardinals on MNF.

     the 2:05 MST games:

Oakland (4-9) at Denver (8-5) - Raiders had something nice going with Bruce Gradkowski at QB, but he sprained both MCL's last week, and is pretty gimpy. Raiders signed a fourth QB (J.P. Losman) this week, but they've announced that third string QB Charlie Frye will start. Seems they've given up on the Biggest Bust Ever (Coach Cable, in a little coachspeak, says that Russel will have a future someday - I guess that's a reference to reincarnation). I don't think it matters who plays QB for the Raiders. Broncos played tough at Undee last week while the Raiders got mauled by the Reds. Denver will win this game going away.

Cincinnati (9-4) at San Diego (10-3) - Both teams just about have their divisions locked up, but not quite. So both want to win this, especially since it might be a preview of a playoff game (not to mention where it would be played). Chargers are the worst team in the league in run defense, while the Bengals are 6th in run offense. But the Benglas pass offense has been invisible lately, while the Chargers pass offense has been red hot - Philip Rivers has thrown for 962 yards the last three games, with five TD's and just one INT. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer has trouble throwing for 200 yards a game, and the Bengals have only scored 7 offensive TD's in the last 6 games. Bengals lost on the west coast in week eleven to the Raiders, 20-17, and I'll take the Chargers at home.

     the 2:15 MST games:

Tampa Bay (1-12) at Seattle (5-8) - Seahawks are 4-2 at home. Bucs are 0-6 on the road. And it's a long road from Florida to Seattle. Might be a little rainy in Seattle.

Green Bay (9-4) at Pittsburgh (6-7) - Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league, and the Steelers are one of the coldest. Steelers will still be without Troy Polamalu, the best safety in the league, and they will also be without starting RG Chris Kemoeatu - not good for Ben R, who was sacked 8 times last week by the Browns. Packers moved to a 3-4 defense in the off season with new D Coordinator Dom Capers, and it sputtered at first. But it's gotten lots better, and is currently the best D in the NFC. Take the Packers.

     the SNF game:

Minnesota (11-2) at Carolina (5-8) - Should be interesting. Vikings tanked in the desert last week, while the Panthers tanked up in New England. Vikings need a win to make sure they get the 2nd seed in the NFC. I think the Vikings are better than they showed last week at Arizona, but Carolina is also a long way from Minnesota. Vikings lost their great LB E.J. Henderson with a broken femur, and that won't help against the Panthers really good run game. I'd be thinking about taking the home team here, but they just lost their stellar OT Jeff Otah, and the Vikings D is pretty good. On a side note, Matt Moore might get the start over Jake Delhomme (Moore has thrown just one INT in two games, while Delhomme throws them in bunches). Anyway, if Matt starts, there will be six starting QB's in the league with the first name Matt. Wierd.

     the MNF game:

New York Giants (7-6) at Washington (4-9) - Division game. These teams are third and fourth defensively in the NFC, behind Green Bay and Minnesota. Giants are 3rd on offense, Reds are 10th. But that's in yards, and the difference on O is just 68 yards per game. 68 yards a game can translate into a win, but the real story here is the tale of two seasons. Giants started 5-0, then went 1-5, then beat the Cowboys at home, then lost to the Eagles at home. Redskins have been a lot better the second half of the season (they lost at Detroit in Week Three) but it hasn't translated into a lot of wins. But consider: a one point loss at Dallas in Week 11; a 3 point loss at Philadelphia in Week 12; an OT loss at home to the Saints in Week 13; and then a blowout win in Oakland last week. Reds are playing pretty well, and some fans think it's because some high priced players have hit the IR and been replaced by hungry younger guys. Also, General Manager Vinny Cerrato just resigned, and this was met with hurrahs by Reds fans. And presumably Reds players. Anyway, this will be in Washington on MNF and the crowd will be up and I think the Redskins can win the game. Giants are still in the playoff race, but that may look different come Monday night.