UPON FURTHER REVIEW - Scouting the Raiders

via www.globalgiants.com

Note: UPON FURTHER REVIEW is brought to you by the team of Broncofan91, Bshrout and Kaptain Kirk. Pinch hitting for Boydy, is Emmett Smith.


The Oakland Raiders are back for their annual visit. The Broncos longtime rival carries a 4-9 record into the Mile High City. Denver at 8-5, is pushing for a playoff spot and the Raiders are in the way.

Setting the Stage

The biggest issues for this game will be the O-lines vs the D-lines. Ours has struggled and both Orton and the running game have suffered as a result. the kindest thing you can say about the raiders O-line is the same thing. Their D line has some serious potential, even if we utterly shut them down last game. We don't have Harris this time, and Hamilton has been benched in favor or Hochstein. Our O line has to play well.

For all that folks have complained about ILB DJ Williams, he leads Denver with 97 tackles (79 solo). He is also fifth in the NFL in tackles per game (8.3) since 2007.  CB Champ Bailey has totaled the most interceptions in the NFL (44) among CB's since entering the league in 1999.

Brandon Marshall had 12 first downs receiving Sunday at Indy (5 on 3rd down) which is a record for a Bronco receiver in any single game and ranks fourth in all-time NFL history. This is a game where he could easily do it again, but look for the Broncos to run more, with Moreno and Hillis getting the carries if Buck can't go. by the way, he was targeted by quarterback Kyle Orton for 28 passes, and that is the highest total in the NFL since at least the 1994 season — a 15-year span. Not too shabby....He currently ranks third in the NFL in catches (86) and is tied for second in the league with nine receiving touchdowns, something that was a weakness last year. It was Marshall’s eighth career game with at least 10 catches, the most by a player through his first four seasons in NFL history

In his Monday presser, Josh McDaniels pointed out that his last concern in a short yardage situation is how big or strong the RB is. That may surprise people, but it's first because all of our backs are over 215 and mostly because the onus is on the O-line for a short yardage situation - they HAVE to clear the hole. It's McD's position that the line gains the yardage and the back simply follows with the ball. From my own perspective, by the way, he's right. The interior of our line hasn't been doing that.

He also noted that the problem with the O line isn't, as many have said, a question of the type of blocking used - man, gap or zone block - but a problem in getting these players to work together better. That is certainly the key in both gap and ZB blocking, and I saw mostly those when watching the film of the past three games.

If Larsen can't go, Hillis will be at FB. This presser was the first time  McDaniels has used the term FB all season. He disagrees that Hillis is somehow better suited for the running game than Moreno and Buck, but agrees that Hillis may see time at RB this weekend if Buck is out and Larsen makes it back.

Since signing Mitch Berger on Oct. 26, the Broncos’ net punting average has shown the 2nd-most improvement (+4.8 yds. / 34.5 to 39.3) in the NFL. Berger has punted for a net average of 40 or more in his last 5 games to tie for the longest streak of his career.

Weather and Conditions

For Sunday at Invesco Field at time of Post

Mostly Sunny
High     Low
48°F     32°F
Precip: 0%
UV Index: Low
Wind Impact: LIGHT
SSW at 6.0 mph

Injuries and external factors

Both teams are dinged up which is a normal occurrence for this time of the season. The Raiders have two key injuries that will affect this game.

QB Bruce Gradkowski is out (MCL tears in both knees), and Tom Cable has opted to start 3rd string Charlie Frye over mega bust JaMarcus Russell. Frye has played in only one game in the past 2 years.
 TE Zach Miller, who sustained a concussion in last weeks game with the Redskins, had not been cleared Wednesday to play (by new League Rules) and is questionable. It is his 2nd concussion since Oct. 4. He also has a shoulder injury.
 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey continues to have his left foot encased in a boot and is doubtful.
 FS Michael Huff practiced without limitations after missing much of the Redskin game with a stinger, but he has left the last 3 games because of that injury.
 DE Greg Ellis(Knee) and C Samson Satele(Calf) are Questionable.

Broncos - Spencer Larsen is expected to play, but a back injury can easily be aggravated - keep an eye on him this game. Harris is lost for the season and Polumbus was badly used by Indy at times. McBath is out, and his work on STs (including the personal protector for the punt game) was very important. His safety work was just getting better each week. David Bruton is Questionable with a Quad injury, so Josh Barrett will be used to spell Dawkins or Hill. Vernon Fox will take Darcel's place as the protector (setback) and signal-caller on punts. With McBath out, if Larsen plays, he could be a difference maker. He has registered the 2nd-most ST's tackles in the NFL (10) during the last 7 weeks, after missing the 1st six games with a shoulder injury.

Areas of Competition

Offense

The Raiders haven't had too many Goal-to-Go Red Zone situations this year, but when they do, they are a very successful 7 for 8 (87.5%).

OFFENSE: PTS 11.9(31st) YDS 246.2(31st) PASS YDS 144.6(31st) RUSH YDS 101.6(22nd)

DEFENSE: PTS 24.3(26th) YDS 372.5(28th) PASS YDS 218.3(17th) RUSH YDS 154.2(30th)

QB

Charlie Frye made his last start for Seattle on Oct. 12, 2008, in a 27-17 loss to Green Bay, throwing 2 TD's, 2 INT's and completing 12 of 23 passes for 83 yards. He opened the 2007 season as the starter for the Cleveland Browns, only to be benched early in the game in favor of Derek Anderson and then traded to Seattle a few days later -- the only player in NFL history to start a season opener and be on a different team the following week.

Charlie been a big part of the game plans the last few weeks If he doesn't come through, it won't be through lack of work. Frye will not have reliable safety valve Zach Miller at TE. The Raiders figure to use a mix of Tony Stewart and rookie Brandon Myers. That also means, that RB Darren McFadden will see more passes his way. Frye will be prepared, and understands how Oakland has to attack the Broncos to be successful this week.

The Raiders signed J.P. Losman on Tuesday as an insurance policy. Losman is fresh from guiding the Las Vegas Locomotives to the UFL Championship. If Frye happens to get knocked out of this game, JaMarcus Russell will play.

O-Line

The Raiders placed LG Robert Gallery on IR before the Washington game. He will be replaced by either Chris Morris or Langston Walker. Morris will get the call unless center Samson Satele is unable to play and Morris is needed at center.

vs. the Cowboys - The Offensive line did a relatively good job on run blocking. They did not do as good a job in pass protection. Gradkowski was consistently throwing with defenders within a yard of him as he released the ball. He had to struggle with a collapsing pocket throughout the game.

vs the Redskins - Rookie Brian Orakpo had his way with Oakland's over-matched OT's, finishing with a career-high 4 sacks and a forced fumble. His pressure wore down the Raiders and rendered their offense completely ineffective in the 2nd half last week. He dominated LT Mario Henderson for 3 of his sacks. Andre Carter had 2 sacks of his own, going through Cornell Green and Washington sacked the Raider QB's a total of 8 times for 65 Yards.

RBs

Oakland has a powerful 1-2-3 punch in Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. They are all capable of quick bursts of speed. If they get a hole in the interior line, they can break through into the secondary. Luckily for Denver, the Raiders O-line has been inconsistent in their ability to open such holes. They also showed great speed in getting to the edge then racing up the field during the Dallas game. 

These three runners are easily capable of breaking long runs if they are allowed to get to the outside without any contact in the backfield or at the line of scrimmage.

Darren McFadden was split wide at the line of scrimmage at times during the Redskin game. Oakland used him as a decoy, creating a matchup problem in the secondary and he made a couple plays downfield. McFadden got the better of Washington SS LaRon Landry, first on a slant for 48 yards and then on a slant-and-go for 26 more. He finished the game with 3 catches for a career-high 84 yards.

RB Justin Fargas has averaged 84.9 yards per game rushing against the Broncos in the past four meetings and will be given every opportunity to get rolling at Invesco Field. He leads the team with 483 rushing yards, a 3.8 average, and 3 TD's. With Charlie Frye at QB, the Raiders' attack should include the roll-outs and quick throws against pressure they utilized with Bruce Gradkowski.

Mcfadden has 251 yards and Bush has 386 yards rushing. As receivers, these three have 48 receptions for 386 yards.

Receivers

These receivers are inconsistent and the Raider QB's aren't helping the matter. While many of the missed passes in the Dallas game were the result of Gradkowski having to hurry his throws due to poor pass protection, there were a number of drops of catchable balls. TE Zach Miller was the leading catcher with 5 receptions out of 6 targets.  RB McFadden was next with 4 catches out of 5 targets.  The WR's -- Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey -- had the worst catch ratio, with 2 out of 7, 2 out of 7 and 2 out of 5 respectively.
Miller leads the team with 50 catches and 657 yards (13.1 avg). WR Chaz Schilens, who was injured for the earlier contest between the 2 teams, has 12     catches for 165 yards (13.8 avg.) and 1 TD in 5 games.
Louis Murphy has filled in with 24 catches for 419 yards (17.5 avg.), 4 TD's and a long of 75.

Johnnie Lee Higgins will make a 3rd straight start at WR with rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey all but ruled out with a sprained foot. Higgins had a season-high 4 catches for 63 yards at Pittsburgh. His 13 catches in limited duty are 2 more than Heyward-Bey, and 5 more than he had after 13 games last season. He finished with a team-high 22 catches for 366 yards and 4 TD's, so maybe strong finishes are his thing.

Defense

7 running backs in 13 games have gone for 100-plus yards on the Raiders. That's not counting the Cowboys splitting 196 rushing yards among 3 backs.

All totaled, the Raiders have let a RB go over 100 yards 51 times since 2003, tops in the League. The list of backs that have hung a 100 yard game against the Raiders this season includes:

Name                    Team    No.-Yds     TD     
Correll Buckhalter -- Den    14-108    0     
Ahmad Bradshaw -- NYG    11-110    2     
Shonn Greene ------ NYJ    19-144     2     
Thomas Jones ------ NYJ    26-121     1     
Jamaal Charles ----- KC     18-103     1     
Bernard Scott ------ Cin     21-119      0     
R. Mendenhall ------ Pit     20-103        1     

Last week, the Oakland defense ran a 4-4-3 Zone set when the Redskins were inside the Red Zone.

D-Line

Oakland's defensive line is very inconsistent. They can be dominant one quarter and disappear on the next. Gerard Warren has been playing very well lately. He's pushing back linemen pretty consistently.  Against Cincinnati, the line was very stout against the run to start the game. Around the middle of the second quarter they started to fade. Tommy Kelly was being pushed around badly. Bengal running back Bernard Scott shredded the raiders for 119 yards on 21 carries. Despite getting good pressure on Palmer, Oakland was not able to come up with a sack.

LB's

MLB Kirk Morrison has 101 Tackles and 2 Forced Fumbles.

OLB Trevor Scott has 32 Tackles and 6 Sacks.

OLB Thomas Howard has 68 Tackles and 2 Sacks.

Redskins TE Fred Davis had a career-high two TD catches last week against the Raiders Zone coverage. One against LB Kirk Morrison and the other when he beat SS Mike Mitchell by 5 yards.
Their linebackers are fast but they have a tendency to over-pursue on wide runs. Reverses could work well against them.

DB's

The Raiders like to change up their Coverages between Man and Zone. Their Press Man Coverage is very good, and when they combine it with a solid pass rush, they get excellent results. But their pass rush is intermittent and tends to take plays off. This paid off to the tune of 9 hits, 9 hurries, and 3 sacks on Jason Campbell.

Every time they switched to Zone, the Redskins made them pay; A critical 1st down pass to Santana Moss that led to a 1 yard TD run by Quinton Ganther, 2 other 1st downs, and pair of Fred Davis TD's.

The Raiders give Orton exactly what he needs, because they do not vary their coverages to match up with the teams that they play (Asomugha complained about this in the press last week, claiming, rightfully, that the Raiders were out of touch with modern football), Orton will have many chances to pick targets that can sit in soft zones. We already know what coverages and schemes Oakland will run.

CB Asomugha and FS Huff against WRs. Asomugha played very close coverage on the Dallas receivers. Huff broke up several potential catches with timely hits and stripping the ball as the receiver tried to make the catch.

Tom Cable hinted at having Asomugha shadow Marshall without regard to the side of the field. That is something the Raiders don't often do to Marshall. Asomugha missed most of the 2nd half of the Redskin game with a right forearm injury. His return is questionable.
RCB Chris Johnson and FS Michael Huff lead the team in INT's with 3 apiece.

Game progression.

The Dallas-Oakland game was played with the appearance of a game that Oakland was not intent on winning. Each team had 12 possessions. Oakland had 6 punts and a fumble in their first 7 possessions. They followed a TD with 3 more punts and turning the ball over on downs. The defense punts on Dallas' 1st 2 possessions. They gave up a FG, a TD, a missed FG and a 2nd TD on Dallas' next 4 possessions. They forced 2 more punts, gave up another TD, then finished the game by forcing 2 more punts.

Jason Campbell threw 2 TD passes to give Washington the lead, Quinton Ganther extended it with two 4th quarter scores and Brian Orakpo helped secure the 34-13 victory Sunday by tying a franchise record with 4 sacks. Campbell took some hits early, but got up each time and finished with 222 passing yards and 2 TD's.

Quinton Ganther scored for the 2nd time to put the Redskins up 31-13 midway through the 4th quarter. Oakland's JaMarcus Russell, in for an injured Bruce Gradkowski, was unable to bring the Raiders any closer.

The Redskins' defense has flown under the radar for most of the season, but their pass rush completely dominated the Raiders. Washington tallied 8 sacks, including 6 in the 2nd half on JaMarcus Russell, en route to holding Oakland to only 227 total yards. Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter, in particular, over-matched the Raiders' OT's and made life miserable for both raiders QB's. With the pass rush imposing its will, the secondary threw a blanket on the Raiders' aerial game to break open a tight contest.

The Redskins were without DT Albert Haynesworth (ankle) and CB DeAngelo Hall (knee). So Hall couldn't get any payback against the team that cut him after $8 million and 8 games last season.     

Flags flew from beginning to end in the contest, with the Raiders getting 14 penalties for 118 yards.

There was a questionable call by the officials when Hiram Eugene was called for interfering with Antwaan Randle El's ability to field a punt. The Raiders protested so vigorously 15 yards was tacked on—with the Redskins opening a drive at the 40 instead of the 10. That turned into a 60-yard scoring drive that broke a 10-10 tie. Those were 2 penalties that the Raiders couldn't recover.

The Raiders played the entire 2nd half without QB Bruce Gradkowski and safety Michael Huff.Gradkowski went 10-for-18 for 153 yards. S Michael Huff left in the 2nd quarter with a stinger. Gradkowski suffered an MCL tear in each knee late in the 1st half and coach Tom Cable turned to JaMarcus Russell in the 2nd half.

With Russell at the helm, the Raiders offense managed just 33 total yards and zero points in the 2nd half. The Redskins took over the game with a 13-play, 80-yard drive that spanned the 3rd and 4th quarters and took six minutes off the clock.

Washington sealed the deal when Russell threw an INT to LaRon Landry on a pass intended for WR Chaz Schilens on the 1st play after Ganther's TD. That gave the Redskins the ball at the Raiders 41-yard line and placed them in position to salt away the clock. Ganther scored on another 1-yard run four plays later for a 31-13 lead.

Russell was sacked 6 times and intercepted once in his 1st action since getting the hook in the Kansas City game in Week 10.

Russell completed his first 2 passes to help set up a 53-yard FG by Sebastian Janikowski. That cut Washington’s lead to 17-13 midway through the 3rd quarter. That was the highlight of the day for Russell. All movement ceased with JaMarcus at the helm. He was 10 of 16 for 74 yards with no gain of more than 11 yards. The Redskins got to him by using a strategy that sent an extra rusher for each eligible receiver kept in to block.

It was a rough day for the Raiders, who lost by at least 20 points for the 5th time this season.

Coaching and clock management.

Nothing stood out as being any kind of significant mismanagement of the clock in the Dallas game.

What else is there to say. The Head Coach is a thug and we all know Al Davis pulls the strings on this team. He has been known to call plays down from his Luxury Box.

Special Teams

Shane Lechler leads the league in Punting Average (51.4) and Net average (44.3). He has 82 Punts, 2nd most in the league. 53 of those were returned at a 6.8 yard average. 25 were inside the 20, with 11 TB's and 12 fair catches.

Sebastian Janikowski is their kicker and handles the kickoffs. 46 KO's, with 13 TB's. 33 were returned at a 22.9 yard average.    

He is 19/22 for 82% in FG's, with a long of 54 yards. He has missed 1 from 40-49 and 2 from over 50 yards. Last week at the end of the 1st half, Janikowski attempted a 66 yarder. It made it 4 yards deep in the end zone and was returned 64 yards by Fred Smoot.

Johnny Lee Higgins  Averages 4.6 yards on Punt Returns, well below the League average of 8.6 yards.    
    
Jonathan Holland has 28 KR's for an average of 19.6 yards, including one for over 40 yards. This is also below the League average of 22.8 yards.

Gary Russell has 12 KR's for 224 yards (18.6 avg).  

Oakland's Cover units are average. They don't so much block as they do get in the way and clog the lanes. They are prone to emotional mistakes. With less than 2 minutes to go in the 1st half against the Redskins, Hiram Eugene was called for a False Start on a Punt. On the next play, He interfered with the Return man. ST Coach John Fassel got so upset, he charged on to the field, and got a personal foul penalty. So instead of their own 10 yard line, the Redskins got the ball on the 40. In the 4th Quarter, Antwaan Randle-El muffed a Punt Return and Tony Stewart recovered. However, the Raiders could not capitalize and turned the ball back over in 4 downs.

Matchups

Brandon Marshall vs. Raiders DB's - Marshall has 9 catches for 151 yards and a TD in his last 2 games against the Raiders, and CB Chris Johnson took note of the NFL record 21 receptions his counterpart had against Indianapolis. If things play out, Johnson will wind up on Marshall a lot more than Nnamdi Asomugha, the CB opponents steer clear of. There's not a lot the Raiders can do to prevent the kind of run-after-catch throws the Broncos use. The key for them is stopping those pass plays after 5 or 6 yards and minimizing Brandon's Yards After the Catch.

LT Mario Henderson vs. Elvis Dumervil - Henderson is coming off a terrible performance in which Redskins rookie Brian Orakpo got to Bruce Gradkowski and JaMarcus Russell for 4 sacks, and 3 of them were Henderson's responsibility. Dumervil had 2 sacks in the 1st meeting against Oakland, getting to Russell twice. This is a big game for Doom. With the generally porous nature of the OAK offensive line, Simon Fletcher's team record of 16 sacks is in jeopardy. It would be incredible to see him do that at home. Ten of Dumervil’s 15 sacks in 2009 have come on 3rd down, and that total ties for the 2nd most in a single season since sacks were tracked starting in 1982.

DE Richard Seymour vs. Ryan Clady - Clady is the key performer on a Denver line that has protected quarterback Kyle Orton and helped the team run well at times—specifically in a 215-yard effort against the Raiders in week 3. The Oakland defensive line is at its best on days when Seymour is dominant. During the first meeting, with the Broncos in command, Seymour gave a clear indication of Raider tradition when he pulled Clady to the ground by his hair and received a 15-yard penalty. Look for these two to resume their battle from the last game. Oakland has been moving Seymour around with pretty good results - he's still a great player. In fact, their Defensive line has played the run well in recent games.

Items of Interest

*The Raiders have moved up to 7th with 90 penalties and are 11th in yardage with 902 yards.

*The Raiders had more penalty yards (108) than rushing yard (65) last week. That is not a good combination for a club that fancies itself a power running team, which likes to keep games close and win in the 4th quarter.

*The Raiders have given up 142 rushing TD's since the start of the 2003 season, most in the NFL.

*The Raiders have scored 1 opening drive TD (Wk 10, against KC)

Summary

The Broncos won 23-3 in Week 3, rushing for 215 yards (108 by Correll Buckhalter) and holding the Raiders to 137 yards of total offense. This should be a rebound game for the Broncos after the beating they took from Indy last week. But there are no guarantees and On any Given Sunday.....

Go Broncos!