The Alphonso Smith pick - Good or Bad?

That happens, but Smith has regressed since his injury. I’m still wondering what happened. One thing Smith can do is tackle so If smith can digest all of the info he’s learned from the vets then I can see him becoming sort of like Winfield.

I look for him mostly in the nickle set and wouldn’t use him against the taller WR’s.

The guy has talent, no doubt. Once he’s healthy, he should be the ballhawk he was in Wake Forest.

He hasn’t been out on the field enough to tell what kind of talent he has, unless you’re at the practices every day.

He will be a great player, but not yet. You can’t judge a player yet, not for a couple years. Smith has struggled this season, but will be improved next year. Maybe someday he will be the next Champ Bailey, maybe not, too soon to tell. The trade was questionable, but if we had traded a first rounder for the opportunity to draft Champ in the second round do you think the same questions would have been raised? Asomugha of the Oakland Raiders was drafted 31st, only a few spots earlier (albeit a different draft) if we had traded a 25th overall pick for him would anyone mind? Point is, give the kid some time… we could have a star in the waiting

I was so psyched because Rey Maualuga was still on the board to my disbelief, I started shoutin and holarin at my friends watchin with me. Then we picked some cornerback I never heard of before, now I did do some research on him and started to like him a bit more. Yet after this year I still say we should have gone with Rey Rey at that spot, who many wanted us to pick up in the first round I might add.

Smith was hailed as NFL ready, “he had so many int in college”, he was a senior, yada, yada, yada. The fact are that Smith is small and slow, too things that aren’t good qualities in a CB, all the coaching in the world won’t change those facts. He is not what I would consisder a number 1 CB by any strech of the imagination, maybe, maybe he can become a decent number 2 CB, but when you loss your starting job as a nickle back to the likes of Jack Williams, Ty Law, and now Tony Carter…chances are you aren’t that good. I hope he turns the corner (no pun intended) but this was a bad trade and it still is, it was a gamble that McDaniels ws making and it does not look like it payed off.

Some sites show him at 4.51 instead of 4.47, but they also note that the fastest CB time during this Combine (in which the overall times were universally slow for reasons that no one has made clear) was the 4.46 average shared by Darius Butler, L. Webb and B Johnson. .05 – maximum – is a pretty small difference.

What’s apparent about many people’s attitudes concerning Alphonso Smith is how they were developed. Strangely, the ‘why’ of attitudes is usually as important as the ‘what.’ Attitudes are rarely simple empirical observations about events — they usually reveal underlying beliefs and emotional predispositions. As such, many people’s opinions about Smith are expressions of their feelings about the Cutlergate issue, and about the direction the team should have taken in the face of what appeared would be a losing season.

Attitudes about the Smith trade are inextricably interwoven with the belief that our best course of action was to accept our fate and bank a high draft pick that was in the offing. That high pick would be ‘earned’ after we failed miserably because we had traded away a franchise QB. The clear course of action — in the eyes of many — was to accept this terrible fate and gradually build a team with high picks, which was an inevitable outcome for a team with so few prospects for success.

‘Why’ many people dislike Smith (or what he represents), is easy to analyze. They disliked numerous aspects of how he became a Bronco. Namely; the terms of the trade that brought him here, the ‘fact’ that we had foolishly traded an expected high pick, the ‘fact’ that we were willingly blind to our fate, the ‘fact’ that we had foregone rebuilding for another year, the ‘fact’ that our HC has so foolishly slighted our franchise QB by discussing a trade for him, and so on and so on.

What can be said about attitudes is that people rarely give them up, and they hold to them even when the apparent facts make them untenable. People — speaking in general — often defer from voicing their beliefs when doing so would expose them to ridicule or social sanctions, but for many people those beliefs continue on and lie just below the surface, only to emerge at a later time when the situation allows for their expression.

Oddly, the ‘why’ of beliefs is often best answered by ignoring what people say about why they believe what they do. People have a strong motivation to appear reasonable, so what they say about why they believe is often the spin that they put on the belief to make it appear acceptable in the eyes of others. Moreover, it’s not always the case that people are aware of why they believe what they do. Emotion and logic go hand and hand in the brain but what’s spun as a logical decision is often an emotional one, and the holder of a belief is a very poor judge of the emotional processes that generate that opinion.

There are some objective metrics for first year CBs and first year players in general, but before examining those it’s interesting to note the roster moves that were made at the CB position this year. Curiously, the signing of Ty Law was greeted in many quarters as confirmation of Smith’s failure even though Jack Williams was cut immediately before Law was signed. Normally, releasing one player and signing another at the same position is considered as a comment on the released player, but many chose to interpret the move as comment on Smith instead.

There is a diagnostic value to the fact that many chose to interpret Jack Williams’ release and the concomitant signing of Law as a comment on Alphonso Smith’s performance. On one hand, there was reason to believe that Smith had performed inadequately since there would be little reason to sign Law if Smith had excelled. On the other hand, Law’s signing in itself could be merely an indication of the staff’s desire to bring in a former pro-bowler who still had value and, even more importantly, experience, which was highly valued where McDaniels has formerly coached. If people had seized upon the cut & signing as a comment on Williams’ performance then it would have made sense. The fact is that the cut of Williams only elicited some surprise and very little commentary on why he wasn’t kept.

The ‘natural’ conclusion was that Williams had failed rather than Smith, but many saw it as a sign that Smith had failed instead. Although it’s arguable whether those who took that position were critics of the trade that brought him aboard initially, but there are sound reasons for believing that this is the case. Underlying disapproval of many of the changes during the off-season had remained but — often — in a dormant state, only to re-emerge once again when the circumstances favored voicing that disapproval. It would have been unseemly to criticize the Broncos during their six-game winning streak at the beginning of the season, and very few people did, but the losses after that point opened the door once again and many who had stuck to their guns, or nowt returned to them, were free to criticize once the team’s fortunes had changed.

DraftTek recently posted an evaluation of how the 2009 draftees have performed. It looks like a fairly accurate appraisal although people may find parts that they don’t like.

SEE HERE, HERE

Synopsis: many of the higher picks have become starters, but many of those draftees have also played on poor teams (thus the high pick), which put them into starting positions where they could stand out. This is in no way a rationalization, but disentangling the player’s performance from favorable circumstances is difficult. For instance, LBs dominate the league’s defensive statistics so it’s hardly surprising that some of the LBs in the draft have succeeded. And some of those clearly earned their success, too, such as Aaron Curry. However, some of the other LBs have also produced but it’s not clear how much of that success is merely the product of playing a position that produces performance metrics rather than a sign of something truly exceptional.

Performances at the CB position have been mixed. Earlier in the season, Vontae Davis, Miami’s pick at #25, was lost and appeared to be a major disappointment. He has since excelled and is one of the top success stories of the group. Sean Smith, also of Miami, whom many liked, has also performed quite well. Another success story would be Jairus Byrd, although he’s used more like a Safety, as well as playing in a situation that’s conducive to high numbers, so there’s a problem with comparability. Many of the successes are surprises, which virtually nobody had predicted, not even the teams that drafted them or they would have picked them higher. Not many people here advocated taking Derek Cox so it’s tough to figure out what to say when he’s cited as a good example by someone who had never heard of him at the time he was drafted.

Many of the CBs that we’re discussed before the last draft haven’t quite fulfilled expectations. Curiously (or perhaps not), fans of their respective teams often place higher expectations on them than fans of other teams. What we might consider a success is not considered a success by the team’s own fans. This also works in the opposite direction, too, and points to the fact that popularity and success (as defined by the coaches) are often very different things.

Grading:

* 1 – Established NFL Star player
    * 2 – Solid Starter
    * 3 – Promising future, a significant contributor
    * 4 – NFL capability not yet proven. A slight disappointment, or plays at a position which requires a few years to develop
    * 5 – Definite disappointment
    * 6 – Flat out bust

Finally, the grades that DT gives our picks in the first three rounds are: Moreno ( 2), Ayers ( 3 ), Smith ( 3 ),
 McBath ( 3 ), Quinn ( 4 )

Overall, our grades a slightly below normal but close to the average. One can argue with the grades they’ve assigned but one of the things that makes this evaluation accurate and objective is the fact it’s not produced (presumably) by a fan of the Broncos. Rather than being caught up in Jaygate and all of its associated issues, a view from afar can be more accurate, even though there’s less information at the author’s disposal. Whereas fans here at MHR are experts on everything about the Broncos, what’s often missing is an overview from around the league. Interestingly, one attitude that’s common around the league is the belief that many of their draftees are disappointments, although in many cases the opposite is true. What many fans don’t realize is that bias exists for every fan base, whether pro or con, and debates swirl about how certain players are worse than expected and others are better than expected, but still fail to win playing time for some odd reason.

He’s learning from two of the best; Champ & Goodman. Wait and see he’s a big time player and will be for many years I hope in Orange & Blue.

Does anyone not remember exactly why Rey dropped in the draft?

There are three main issues that were raised. First is that some of his behavior was childish and even troubling, including the nation TV incident that bordered on sexual harassment. Since that happened at the end of the season and made the national news, lots of scouts perked up their ears. Then there were the reports that he had to have a ‘sitter’ when the team was on the road. I never thought that was proven, but the rumor certainly was active. He had a fighting incident or two in college – they didn’t help the matter.

Second,. Rey was pegged as a two down player. I never agreed with this one, but many folks were very forthright with the opinion that he wasn’t a third down guy. I think that he’s proven them wrong, but that was also a common comment.
 First, the team believed that Andra Davis and Mario Haggan would do well and that DJ would love his new slot. He’s leading the team in tackles and he has, overall, played well. Davis has been a wonderful surprise and Haggan has joined Doom, Reid and Ayers on the OLB. All are playing well. But Rey is a MLB and we don’t run a 4-3. Even more so, Rey was not known as a disciplined player. McD and Nolan would not have that on their team.

I’m glad for Rey that he’s played well. I liked him them, I like him now, but he was, without question, a risk. The fact that this risk has turned out well doesn’t mean that hindsight is useful or that he would fit our scheme. Neither is true.