Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations
Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to the triumphant finale of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations on MileHighReport.com. I'm obviously excited for my new venture, but I'm a little sad to have just typed that sentence. The feedback I've received has been very positive, and I particularly thank those who emailed me offline with encouragement on my new direction.
For today, I'm still very proud to be part of the staff of the best Broncos site in the world, and tomorrow, I'll be just as proud to be an alumnus of it, and a branch from the John Bena tree. (More branches are coming, trust me on that; quality like we have on this site breeds it.) Taking my MHR responsibility very seriously, and recognizing that some might not care a whit about my new site, I am going to hold off on the details of it for now, and include it as a postscript to this ST&NO, for those who are interested. Those who aren't can simply skip it, and not feel like I subjected them to undue pain and suffering. I think that's a fair deal, and I'll assume by your silence that you assent to its terms.
With that out of the way, it's out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready.... BEGIN!!!
1. I'm obviously not too happy with Sunday's result, but I'm not really surprised. I didn't go cursing out any random old men on Sunday, like I did after the Washington game. Way back, when I picked this team to go 11-5, I projected a road loss to Philadelphia. It was clear who the more talented team was on Sunday, and they were wearing green. The Eagles have had a successful, decade-long, coherent player procurement strategy, and they tend to hit much more than they miss in the draft and free agency. I am confident that the Broncos are on their way to being able to make the same claim, but it will take a couple more years to build the kind of scheme-planned depth that the Eagles have.
Let's remember to have some perspective. I don't know how many Texas Hold ‘em players we have here, but when you go all in pre-flop with a low pair, heads-up against two over cards, that's what they call a race. Say I've got a pair of Fives, and you have a Queen and a Ten. I am in the lead at the moment the cards are flipped over, but there's about a 50% chance that you'll pair one of your cards, or catch another hand that will beat me. If I am short-stacked, and I catch that low pocket pair, this is probably the best situation I can reasonably hope for, to get into a race, and I need to make the play when it's there. I have a 50% chance, where I could either double up, or bust out. That's all I can ask for, so I make my stand, and I live with the results.
That's where the Broncos found themselves Sunday - short-stacked, and in a race. They were tied, against a Super Bowl-caliber team, on the road, late in a game, and they had a good chance to win. Then the cards got flipped over, and the Broncos came up a little short. I don't believe in moral victories, but I believe that the Broncos acquitted themselves pretty well as a team on Sunday. I think that any talk of "collapses" or "swoons" (I loathe that word) is misplaced. In the last 3 weeks, the Broncos have lost respectably to two legitimate Super Bowl contenders on the road, and a bit less respectably to one motivated arch rival at home. They haven't gotten pounded like during last year's collapse (with no quotation marks, incidentally).
Remember, the Panthers and Chargers took the Broncos to the woodshed last year, and exposed them as frauds. This year's team is not a fraud; it's just a bit under-talented to go toe-to-toe with the upper echelon teams, and it needs to play great to win those games. They got that kind of performance, early in the season, against Dallas, New England, and at San Diego. They didn't quite get that level of performance at Indianapolis or at Philadelphia, but the other guys get paid, too.
I was listening to the incredibly boring first half of the Dallas-Washington Sunday night game, and I heard Cris Collinsworth say something interesting. He said he had a coach who always said he took playing hard for granted; he wanted execution. This Broncos team has played hard all season, and has mostly acquitted themselves well against a very tough schedule. Their consistency and execution has lacked sometimes, and that's mostly a function of talent, in my opinion. There are some areas of the roster where the players are good enough to get it right a lot of the time, but they get defeated some of the time.
The offensive and defensive lines are both a bit under-talented, and need some upgrading. D.J. Williams needs to become more consistent in the future, and hopefully, a year in the system will promote that. Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers, and Alphonso Smith have all had good moments and bad moments as rookies, and we can only hope that the lessons they've learned this year will translate to big second seasons. It would be nice if Eddie Royal and Kyle Orton developed some rapport, so Eddie would be used more in the passing game. (Better pass protection would promote more frequent downfield passing.)
This team has been good enough to go 11-5, but has lost a couple close games lately that it was winning early in the season. The other shoe drops, eventually. Ask the Miami Dolphins, whose 2008 season I foresaw for the 2009 Broncos. The Dolphins won a lot of close ones last season, and lost a lot of them this season. They're a good team, though, and nobody really wants to play them very much. The Broncos are the same type of team; good enough to win any game, but with little margin for error. I don't think the Dolphins did enough in the 2009 offseason to improve, and they lost quality players in their secondary like Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill, and replaced them with Gibril Wilson, Vontae Davis, and ST&NO Favorite Sean Smith. That's neutral at best, and in the short term, it's clearly a downgrade. I'd like to see the Broncos keep their best players, and replace their worst. I suppose that's all anybody wants for their team.
The Broncos' path to the postseason is a bit more challenging now, but it's almost beside the point. Frankly, making the playoffs and winning a game would almost be a negative for their growth prospects. It's looking more and more like 2010 will be uncapped, and one of the provisions of that scenario is that the 8 teams which make the Divisional Playoff round are prohibited from signing any free agents, except to replace their own lost players. This team still needs more talent, and as much as simple-minded people like to talk about building only through the draft, smart coaches and GMs don't stick to blanket "truisms" like that. They get the best players they can to match their team's schemes, and they do it however they can. Being limited in the ability to acquire players isn't really what this team needs right now. Granted, if they win a playoff game, I'll be happy about that, but I'll be happy too if the Broncos sign a Guard like Logan Mankins, Jahri Evans, or Harvey Dahl. Or, how about a player from this list of defensive linemen: Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Aubrayo Franklin, Casey Hampton, and Ryan Pickett. How about a punter like Jon Ryan, Sam Koch, or Michael Koenen? This team definitely has some needs to fill.
The takeaway, if you're looking for one, is that I am still quite bullish on the Broncos' future. This has always been the first year of a massive shift in programs, (but not exactly a rebuilding year), and next year has always been the season to have some increased expectations. Regardless of the outcome of next week, I feel better now than I did a year ago. This team wasn't going to win the Super Bowl this year, so it follows that we'd all ultimately be disappointed by their elimination at some point. While I hope they're able to get into the postseason, I'll be happy enough if they do their part by beating Kansas City next week, and we'll see how the chips fall after that.
2. Information From My Eyes - Broncos at Eagles:
a. My goodness, was Mitch Berger terrible Sunday. There aren't words to adequately describe it. The punter position has to be a high priority in the offseason.
b. I've been down on Russ Hochstein, Ben Hamilton and Casey Wiegmann for awhile, and I'm at the point where you can add Chris Kuper to that list, too. He's the restricted free agent who can get away, in my opinion. He's been getting pushed backward a lot, and he really struggled with Mike Patterson Sunday.
c. That Brandon Stokley play was atrocious. He was mauled, and he had every right to be upset. I wish he hadn't grazed the official's hand, but accidents happen. A missed call like that can help decide the outcome of a game, even in the first quarter.
d. Not a great showing for Brandon Marshall when it came to catching the ball. He needs to focus and look it all the way in.
e. Phil Simms had it exactly right. Blitzing Donovan McNabb is a fool's errand. You're much better off to rush four, drop seven, and play coverage. McNabb knows exactly where to go hot, and he throws the ball exceptionially well from an off-balance position. You'd rather make him be accurate than make him be athletic.
f. I wish the Broncos would make it a 60-minute priority to cover the good TEs one of these days. Somehow, it's always an adjustment to be made, and it starts happening once it's figured out. It's getting quite annoying.
g. I've been pleased with the play of the special teams for about the last month, and it continued to be solid Sunday.
h. I always seem to want to praise Robert Ayers, but he was more active than I've ever seen him on Sunday. He was constantly around the ball, and I continue to be pleased with his development. I think he's going to go from being a half-step away from the play to making a lot of plays next season. When you consider that LB is a new position for him, and he's been used in coverage a lot, his rookie year has been pretty solid, regardless of what the Simple Simon's tell you.
i. I thought the use of Brandon Gorin as an extra lineman was pretty ineffectual Sunday. The Eagles D-line dominated in the running game all day.
j. I've seen some calls for more zone blocking, but I don't think I agree. The Broncos haven't been any more effective at the zone stuff than they have the man stuff this season. What they need is execution.
k. Great call and execution on the 3rd quarter quick screen to Correll Buckhalter. That was a huge play in the game, to get the Broncos out of a terrible down-and-distance situation.
l. The interception thrown by Kyle Orton was a solid decision, but a bad throw. You like to throw over the CB and outside the S in cover-2; you just need to hit on it.
m. I was glad to see Brandon Lloyd contributing. He made a couple key catches, and it was nice to see him get a chance to play.
n. The Broncos are frequently criticized for throwing short so much, but I believe that it's a function of Josh McDaniels not trusting the pass protection. That's 100% justified, incidentally.
o. Andre' Goodman was fantastic Sunday, and I felt bad that Jeremy Maclin made that great sideline catch in front of him. Really, you can't cover any better than that with the play calling for him to stay deeper than the receiver. You just take your hat off to McNabb and Maclin on a play like that.
p. D.J. Williams had a pretty nice game, but he sure busted on that McNabb 3rd-and-25 in the 4th quarter. What a bad decision to jump that short route, and lose vision on McNabb. Robert Ayers really shouldn't have gotten upfield, either.
3. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:
a. At the risk of sounding like I have a personal bandanna against Peter King, I’ll start with something which was utterly silly that he said in his MMQB column yesterday.
Amazing, isn't it, that Matt Schaub's going to end up with 4,700 passing yards or so. What's this league coming to?
Yes, Peter, it’s quite amazing (that you make money to write drivel like this). I’ll tell you what the league is coming to. A guy who is a really good player has executed a very good passing scheme, and used some strong weapons very well. PK just doesn’t realize how good Schaub is, because nobody has told him yet.
Really, Schaub and Drew Brees have had very similar seasons, and are comparable players. To wit, check out their statistics, as I momentarily pretend that I give a damn about stats.
| Passing | Rushing | Sacks | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | Rating | Comp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/G | Y/A | TD | INT | Rush | Yds | Y/G | Avg | TD | Sack | YdsL | |
| 2009 - Matt Schaub | 15 | 99.1 | 372 | 544 | 68.4 | 4,467 | 297.8 | 8.2 | 27 | 14 | 46 | 56 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0 | 24 | 141 |
| Passing | Rushing | Sacks | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | Rating | Comp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/G | Y/A | TD | INT | Rush | Yds | Y/G | Avg | TD | Sack | YdsL | |
| 2009 - Drew Brees | 15 | 109.6 | 363 | 514 | 70.6 | 4,388 | 292.5 | 8.5 | 34 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 20 | 135 |
Very similar across the board, right? Brees is the second coming of the savior, though, and Schaub is evidently an interloper whose success is indicative of some unfortunate condition that the league is coming to. I really don't have anything personal against Peter King, but how can I let something as absurd as this stand? It's unduly influencing the understanding of decent, hard-working, trusting fans, so I can't.
Schaub and Brees have a lot in common, actually. Both men have clear limitations; (height and arm strength for Brees, durability, overall athleticism and arm strength for Schaub). Both are coached by very creative offensive coaches, who scheme to maximize their strengths, and minimize their weaknesses. Both have a lot of weapons around them, though the Saints have more.
The Saints have obviously won more games, and if you're the kind of Simple Simon who thinks everything hinges on the QB, you might give Brees a lot of credit and Schaub just a little. The truth is, Schaub's Texans team profiles a lot like Brees' 2008 Saints, and nobody asked what the league was coming to for Brees last year. I'm here to tell you, Schaub is every bit the player that Brees is, and he should join Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers in the Pro Bowl for the AFC, ahead of Tom Brady, though he probably won't.
b. Speaking of the Texans, I'd hate to be playing them right now. Their offense is terrific, and has been all year, but their defense has really come on strong the last month or so. They have a nice rookie find in CB Glover Quin, and Brian Cushing is a super-duper-star. It's not hyperbole to say that he's the best OLB in the NFL this season whose primary role isn't rushing the passer. More fun with stats:
| Sacks | Interceptions | Tackles | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | Sacks | YdsL | Int | Yds | IntTD | Solo | Ast | Total | |
| 2009 - Brian Cushing | 15 | 4 | 30.5 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 82 | 46 | 128 |
Cushing is the fifth-leading tackler in the NFL through 15 games, and it'll be a crime if he doesn't make the Pro Bowl. (He probably won't, because he's not a pass rusher, and he's a rookie.) The Texans hit like crazy when they picked him, and he's been head-and-shoulders better than USC teammates Clay Matthews and Rey Maualuga, who have both also been good. Sometimes, a pick is really obvious, so obvious that people find it uninspiring or boring. You have to like it when a pick like that works out so well.
c. The Dolphins laid an egg to start the game, then played well in the second half, after I had shifted away from the game live. I re-watched the Short Cut Monday night, and I was once again impressed with the play of Chad Henne. The guy is just a good-looking young QB, and Dolphins fans should be very excited for what the future holds at that position.
I think if I were in the position of Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland, I'd be most urgently looking for a big, physical #1-type of WR. That, and a receiving TE is what their offense lacks, and otherwise, I wouldn't change much of anything. Of course, good, big WRs don't grow on trees, but I'd be trying hard to land Dez Bryant in the draft. Ted Ginn is limited to playing outside the numbers, and while he can sometimes be a very good deep threat, he offers little in the intermediate area, or the middle of the field. Greg Camarillo, Brian Hartline, and Davone Bess are all slot WR-types. With those four guys, it's like you're trying to manufacture a passing game, like how the 1980s St. Louis Cardinals used to manufacture runs with slap singles and stolen bases. You can go that way, and get by, but it's a tougher go than hitting a few home runs is. I really think Miami's defense is in good shape, personnel-wise, and will be very strong next season, as rookie starting CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith enter their second seasons.
d. Congratulations to the Colts, for doing what they thought was right for their team. Their critics can pound sand down a rathole. The Colts don't owe them, or anybody, anything. Their mission is to win the Super Bowl, not to be undefeated in the regular season. The Simple Simon's say that Peyton Manning never gets hurt, but it's not all about Manning; the Colts need all of their starters healthy in the playoffs. What happens if Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark blows out his knee, or Dwight Freeney gets seriously hurt? Risk aversion is appropriate when there's nothing real to play for.
e. As much of a QB lover as I am, I get irritated at all the talk about how games are basically entirely won and lost at the QB position. An example of how this is complete bunk is what has happened to Minnesota. Their offensive line has played poorly four weeks in a row now, and that's a real issue.
A major, unmentioned problem though, is the loss of MLB E.J. Henderson, who is underrated and excellent. Nobody had run effectively on the Vikings in about 3 years, until the last three games, when Henderson has been out. Henderson, Pat Williams, and Kevin Williams are the best interior triangle in the NFL against the run, and while Jasper Brinkley has showed a little bit at times, he's no Henderson, by a longshot. This is a big reason I expect Minnesota to be one-and-done in the playoffs.
f. The Chiefs gave quite a defensive effort Sunday in hanging with the Bengals. I thought Tyson Jackson looked more active and effective than I've seen him look all season, which has to be an encouraging sign for the Chiefs. I still don't see a lot out of Glenn Dorsey, though, which continues to surprise me. I was very high on him coming out of LSU, and he just hasn't yet developed like I thought he would.
g. Leon Hall had a pretty spectacular coverage game Sunday for the Bengals, mostly against Chris Chambers. Hall knocked down at least four passes (according to ESPN), and I thought I counted five. Hall and Johnathan Joseph have both been very good this season, and I fully believe that four of this season's six best AFC CBs come from two teams, between Hall and Joseph, and Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha are the other two top CBs, obviously. I would say that Quentin Jammer, Cortland Finnegan, Eric Wright, and Lito Sheppard have rounded out the top 10, but those four are a level down from the top six.
h. Don't look now, but the Panthers are back to executing the formula that won them 12 games last season. Of course, all you get from the MSM is how Minnesota and the Giants self-destructed in back-to-back weeks. Carolina is running the ball, despite being without their starting tackles and DeAngelo Williams, and they're hitting on some downfield passes with Matt Moore. On defense, they're rushing the passer with four men and playing good zone coverage. This bodes well for 2010, especially if Moore can beat out Jake Delhomme and keep playing this well.
i. Julius Peppers looks like he wants to get paid lately. He's making slightly more than $1 million per game now, but he wants a multi-year contract with about $40 million guaranteed. I bet he gets it, if he keeps getting off the ball like he has been lately.
j. Osi Umenyiora has had a fairly disappointing season for the Giants, but you can't tell me he should only be seeing the field for four snaps in any game. I think that what he's asked to do in the running game doesn't suit his abilities very much. The Giants seem to want him to control a gap, when he's much more effective at shooting a gap, like Dwight Freeney. The writing seems to be on the wall that his days are numbered in New Jersey. If Gaines Adams can garner a second-round pick, you have to think Umenyiora can, too. Honestly, a predominantly Tampa-2 team, like the Bucs, strike me as the ideal situation for a guy of Osi's skills and abilities. Maybe with an extra #2, they'd want to bring in a proven pass rusher.
k. Congratulations to whomever is using the name underwear, for beating me for the championship of the official MHR Fantasy League. I couldn't overcome a tankfest from Laurence Maroney, and a fairly quiet day from Brandon Marshall and Aaron Rodgers. You win some, you lose some. Big up, underwear!
l. It seems to me that the Matt Hasselbeck era should probably be coming to an end in Seattle pretty soon. He has looked terrible the second half of this season, and it's a bit hard to understand, because he had a couple good early games. In Hasselbeck's last two games, he's thrown 2 TDs and 8 Interceptions. It's a lost season in Seattle, but this is ridiculous.
m. The Seahawks need to figure out what they want to be, because I haven't been able to discern a coherent strategy for player procurement for them in quite awhile. They have three really highly paid WRs in Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandazdeh and Nate Burleson. I don't think any of them are worth their pay, but they're all solid players. They also have three big-money LBs in Aaron Curry, Lofa Tatupu, and Leroy Hill. They have no particular quality on the offensive line, at RB, or in their secondary. There are some okay players, but nothing more than that.
To me, Seattle is a team which needs an entirely new program. If I were whoever is hired as their GM, with all those LBs they have, I think I'd can Jim Mora, and hire Todd Bowles to be the Head Coach. Bowles is a Parcells guy, who could come in and implement a 3-4 defense, which would turn the blue chipper Curry loose to be most impactful. I think really highly of Bowles, and I think Mora is just going to keep banging the same nail with the same hammer. I've never seen a lot of indications that Mora is a tone-setter for a program in either of the two Head Coaching jobs he's held.
n. Is it just me, or does the NBA seem thoroughly uninteresting this year? I used to be a pretty good fan, but I could care less right now. Maybe it's the total immersion in football that I've gone through over the last 5 months, but I'm bored by hoops. I haven't watched one complete game this season, and I may not have watched a full half. I used to coach kids' basketball, and I really like the game in and of itself, but the NBA product is lame to me right now.
o. Josh Freeman is still throwing the ball to the other team far too much, but you can tell that the guy is the real deal. I think Raheem Morris is going to be back next year, but I think that I'd hire the best QB teachers money can buy, if I were him. Charlie Weis comes to mind. I'd offer to pay him a bunch of money to come to Tampa, although he says he wants to stay in the Midwest. Freeman has all the ability in the world, and seems like a smart kid. He just needs reps and coaching.
p. Morris was criticized for canning Jim Bates, but the truth is, the Bucs defense has been much better since he did. With Morris calling the plays himself, they've allowed an average of 17 points per game (and won 2 of 5 games). With Bates calling the plays, they allowed 29 points per game, and went 1-9. You haven't heard that from the MSM, because the hater-driven narrative that they push is that Morris is a young fool, in over his head.
Everybody knows I like Morris, and the main reason is that he has the courage to cut bait when something clearly isn't working, regardless of the outside perception of it. He was hamstrung by the lateness of his hiring, which left little in the way of quality NFL assistants available. He clearly didn't know what he was doing in interviewing and hiring coaches (those are acquired skills), but he has to have a better idea now. Morris deserves a chance to bring in some better people, and see what kind of improvement he can lead with a better staff and some more talent.
q. My opinion of New Orleans is completely unchanged, despite their two straight losses. If they execute, they are talented enough on both sides of the ball to win the Super Bowl. Their execution on offense has been somewhat lacking since their domination of the Patriots, though, so they'd better pick it up. Football Outsiders had a solid article Monday about playoff momentum being bunk, so I wouldn't be worried about that. Football games are independent events. (Stop me if you've heard this one before.) You have to execute and make the plays that are there to be made.
r. One of the worst starting players I've seen all year is Minnesota RG Anthony Herrera. He's like the offensive equivalent to the 2008 version of Calvin Lowry. The guy has a missed assignment on virtually every play. It's shocking that he plays on a team with such a good record.
s. You know, Johnny Knox has gotten a lot of love this season, and he has good stats for a fifth rounder. I am not so high on him, though, because I perceive him to be soft. At least four times that I've seen this season, he's quit against a jam, and failed to get across the face of the CB on a slant route. At least a couple of those led to Jay Cutler interceptions. Knox is very fast, and has good ball skills, but he's thin, and seems to lack strength and physicality. Like Mike Shanahan used to say, you'd better be able to get off press coverage, or you'll be selling cars before very long.
t. I've been somewhat critical of Chris Williams in the past, but he had a fantastic game on Monday night against Jared Allen. I didn't see a lot of chipping or double-teaming happening, and Williams really did a good job on the left side, which he's fairly new to playing at the NFL level. Bears fans can hope they have something for the future after a performance like that.
u. I was writing as much as I was watching on Monday night, but I thought Antoine Winfield looked pretty bad. He got undressed by Devin Aromashodu on the first posession of overtime. I know he was in bail technique, but he got way too deep on the drop, and recognized the route very slowly. Aromashodu also clearly dogged him on the winning TD in overtime. He had no jam, and no chance.
I've never been Winfield's biggest fan, to tell the truth. To me, he's like Asante Samuel without the good ball skills. He hits hard, but he doesn't cover that great. Peter King named him to SI.com's All-Decade Team recently, which I thought was silly. His rationale was that he's a good tackler, and you need one on the other side of a cover guy like Champ Bailey. Of course, Bailey is one of the best tackling CBs ever, himself, but nobody told PK, so he doesn't know.
4. As promised, here is the All-ST&NO Favorites Team for 2009. I don't expect any of these guys to make the Pro Bowl this season, although one or two might.
| QB | Alex Smith | SFO |
| RB | Frank Gore | SFO |
| RB | Kevin Faulk | NE |
| WR | Sidney Rice | MIN |
| WR | Jason Avant | PHI |
| TE | Zach Miller | OAK |
| LT | Duane Brown | HOU |
| LG | Ben Grubbs | BAL |
| C | Alex Mack | CLE |
| RG | Jahri Evans | NO |
| RT | Vernon Carey | MIA |
| DL | Antonio Smith | HOU |
| DL | Randy Starks | MIA |
| DL | Tony Brown | TEN |
| DL | Alex Brown | CHI |
| OLB | Mario Haggan | DEN |
| OLB | Brian Cushing | HOU |
| ILB | Channing Crowder | MIA |
| ILB | DeMeco Ryans | HOU |
| CB | Sean Smith | MIA |
| CB | Andre' Goodman | DEN |
| S | Thomas DeCoud | ATL |
| S | Bernard Pollard | HOU |
| K | Ryan Succop | KC |
| P | Andy Lee | SF |
Notes:
a. It's well-known that I love Sean Smith's ability to play press coverage, but he came close to getting bounced in favor of Cleveland's Brandon McDonald, because he has seemed allergic to tackling lately. I don't know if he's hurt, but he needs to stick his nose in there.
b. The three players who may make the Pro Bowl, in my opinion, are Sidney Rice, Brian Cushing, and Andy Lee. All should, and we'll see if they do.
c. A few of my favorites, like Percy Harvin, Andre Caldwell, McDonald, Matt Roth, Jason Snelling, Harvey Dahl, and Brett Kern missed the cut. Better luck next year.
d. Yes, I am a University of Florida fan, and yes, that impacts my favorites. After all, they're MY favorites.
e. I think two Broncos are appropriate. I loved Goodman last year in Miami, and was ecstatic when the Broncos signed him. Haggan became a Favorite this season, and I love the way he selflessly and physically sets the edge.
5. I thought about it a bit this week, and I still don't like epaulets. I don't think anything is ever going to change that. They just make me think of Officers' and Chiefs' summer whites, and Members Only jackets. My hetero street cred was openly questioned last week for daring to discuss men's fashion in a football column, but I could really give a damn.
Remember this exchange from Season 2 of The Wire? Jimmy McNulty and Bunk Moreland were sitting on Spiros Vondopoulos.
Bunk: A different look for our boy.
McNulty: Yeah, Perry Ellis, or something.Bunk: Now, how would a just-rolled-out-of-bed-looking mother&^%er like you know the designer?McNulty: [pauses] Okay, I'm guessing.Bunk: It's a Joseph Abboud. He puts dark buttons instead of brass on his blazers. That's the Abboud signature.McNulty: You know what they call a guy who pays that much attention to his clothes, don't you?Bunk: A grown-up
So, yeah, there you go. I think if I were gay, I'd be open about it, and blaze a new trail among football writers. I'm not, though, so I have to do the other thing instead. I actually started seeing a new woman this week, if that's germane to anything. (Does that sound like a racist talking about how many black friends they have? It's not the same thing, so I guess I don't really care.) The regular season is almost over, so I'll have some more time soon. Timing is everything, you know? The summer girlfriend breaking up with me during halftime of the Hall of Fame Game probably enabled me to write 30,000-40,000 more words this season than I would have been able to, otherwise. <shrug>
6. Interesting rumor from ESPN today that Bill Cowher wants back into the coaching ranks. They seem to think that Tampa Bay is his landing spot, but I don't. For one thing, it's a total rebuilding job, and the defensive personnel is completely scheme-incompatible with what Cowher likes to run. For another, I think Raheem Morris is going to get a second year.
So where does Cowher land? Let's consider that for a moment.
Cleveland - Eric Mangini may get canned, and Cowher played and coached in Cleveland, but he has no discernible relationship with Mike Holmgren, and comes from a diametrically-opposed programmatic background. Not likely. Incidentally, look for Jim Zorn here. It may be a tough sell to fans, but Holmgren pushed Zorn hard for the Redskins job, and may be able to provide enough cover to make it work. Even a decent spin doctor could make a passable case that Zorn was doomed to failure by the meddling of Dan Snyder and the incomptence of Vinny Cerrato.
Buffalo - Unlikely to pay Cowher money, or to be particularly attractive to him. This probably ends up being a first-timer, or lower-profile retread. Charlie Weis has been mentioned as a possibility.
Seattle - Might fire Jim Mora, and could fit from a coaching-style perspective, but it's doubtful that Cowher would want to move way out to the Pacific Northwest.
Carolina - Once thought to be Cowher's best landing spot, it was reported Monday that John Fox and Marty Hurney are safe.
Washington - This is going to be Mike Shanahan's spot, no question about it.
Dallas - Wade Phillips is looking safer all the time. Jerry Jones likes Wade, mostly because he lets Jerry have the spotlight. Cowher wouldn't go for that, and has a big, Parcells-like presence, which would compete with Jerry just by its media stature. Not a fit.
St. Louis/Detroit - Not going to fire their first-year coaches.
Kansas City - 95% likely not going to fire Todd Haley.
Oakland - May fire Tom Cable, but there's no way Cowher (or any credible Head Coach) works for Al Davis.
There's no obvious landing spot, is there? I think that it's likely that Cowher's publicist is soon saying that the rumors were garbage, and that he didn't ever want to coach in 2010, and maybe next year. Wanting in and not getting in would somewhat tarnish his luster, and neither he nor CBS will want that.
7. Retired for John Elway.
8. If you watch the Food Network (I admittedly don't), you should check out Private Chefs of Beverly Hills tonight (Tuesday) at 9 PM EST. A guy I went to middle school and high school with, Matt DuTrumble, is going to be featured on the show, and he's a cool guy, so I wanted to shout him out here. Look at these NFA Wildcats making moves.
That's all the MHR-related material I have for today, and, incidentally, as a front-page poster. My last 6,000 words (7,000 if you continue on). If you'd like to continue reading my work in the future, please continue to read on, after this paragraph. I'd love to have you check out my new site. If you're not really a fan, and/or are not particularly interested in venturing outside the MHR community, I thank you for reading my work while I was doing it here. Get ready for a great reloading season, and hopefully, success in a few more games this season. I will always value my time at MHR very highly, and the friendships I've made here. Thank you all for everything, and if I don't see you, be well in the New Year, and into the future.
Post-script - By reading further, you hereby voluntarily choose to learn the details about my new site.
So, last week, when I announced that I was establishing my own site, I didn't go into a lot of detail. Since I hope a lot of you will continue to read my work, and hopefully tell your friends who aren't Broncos fans to do the same, I wanted to talk briefly about what the plan is. My new site is called SmarterFans.com As an admittedly semi-vain person, it made a lot of sense to me to play to the vanity of others a bit. Everybody would like to think that they're a Smarter Fan, right? Well, the goal is to encourage and enable a robust sharing of football knowledge across a connected community, similar to what has been so masterfully achieved here at MHR.
I have come to regard team specificity to be a barrier to building the type of community I want to build. My goal is to cover all 32 teams fairly evenly, subject to their individual relevance within the NFL landscape. I have no plans to renounce being a Broncos fan, or to pretend like I am not one. I have always said I am not a journalist, and I have absolutely zero desire to be one, or to pretend indifference to the teams and personalities in the game. I feel bad for a guy like Adam Schefter, who says he's not a fan of any team, just of the best stories. How the hell can football be any fun, when that's your approach?
For those who've asked, I'll still be retiring #7 for John Elway, because that's a Ted Bartlett thing, and because I own the site, and get to do whatever I want. My analysis will be independent and objective, but I think it always has been. Independence is key, because y'all know I don't really care who I offend, if I feel like the comments I make are fair and accurate. My independence is what allows me to do that, because I don't rely on anybody's access or good graces. I've been criticized for taking some shots at writers before, and my approach there has been evolving. I plan to try hard not to make my criticisms seem personal, but I am sure this will be a work in progress. Sometimes things make more sense to me when I type them, than they do to others when they're read. It's a hazard of being Ted, like drama in the LBC is to Snoop D-O-Double-G. <shrug>
Format-wise, you can expect the ST&NO you're used to reading to be cut roughly in half, and posted between Monday and Tuesday. Monday will feature more of a general flipping-channels kind of feel, and will run opposite Peter King's MMQB. Tuesday's part will be written on Monday nights, after I watch 5-6 key games, and will be more detailed. I also expect to do more with on-camera video commentary than I ever previously have, and write a few shorter articles each week about topics which grab my attention. I have to have new content just about every day, since I'll be carrying a whole site at first. Between now and next season, I'll also be creating some video packages in the mold of what I was doing with Lighting Up The Scoreboard. I think the presentation of those videos was very powerful, but was misapplied as a game-preview mechanism. I was spending four hours per video to create something that became irrelevant within a couple days. That's really why I stopped doing them. I want to use the concept to create football education videos, to help new fans learn the game, and casual fans become Smarter Fans. Those videos can be re-used indefinitely, and frankly, I can eventually sell ads on them. (As far as ads go, I plan to start off with Google Adsense, and all ad placement will err on the side of respect to the end-user.)
I'm not reporting the news, and I don't really care about that aspect of football coverage at all, so I am pulling in National Football Post's RSS feed, and linking to their news posts. Aaron Wilson and Brad Biggs do a pretty good job of reporting news for them, and I'm sure NFP won't mind being linked, and getting the traffic I drive to them. I'm an analyst, and the thrust of SmarterFans.com will always be analysis of the news, rather than the gathering and reporting of it.
I'm starting with no contributors, but I hope to identify a few talented ones fairly quickly, and have them augment what I am doing. I definitely want to find a draftnik sooner rather than later, and maybe a stats person, and a fantasy writer when we get closer to the 2010 Season (despite my personal distaste for fantasy football). I'd like to find the kind of talent which John put together here, so if you know anybody who can live up to what I'd call the MHR front-page standard, and has interest in writing at the league-wide level, please send them my way. I can't stress enough that I am trying to largely re-create what I've learned here, and apply MHR's best practices to the macro level.
I realize that I'm very lucky, because I'm going to start with some readers who know me, and some knowledge of how a top-notch multi-user community site works. I expect that my site's incubation period will be somewhat shorter than a brand new site out of left-field, trying to carve out some market share. The way I see it, there's nothing in the existing marketplace of ideas which is exactly like what I am trying to do, and there's a robust consumer demand for better (and better-presented) football information. I think I know how to meet that demand, and defeat the vast tsunami of MSM suckitude. I'm not doing anything but trying to be the best in the world at what I do. Thanks for being part of that, both here and at SmarterFans.com. Hit me up at my new email address - ted@smarterfans.com, if you have any ideas or suggestions. Thanks for continuing to check me out, and for telling your friends about SmarterFans.com
14 recs |
89 comments
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Comments
Good luck EB...dont be a stranger and good luck with everything!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didnāt rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Thanks Boydy
My given name is actually Edward (I’m a 3rd, and my dad is Ed) so you’re technically correct either way.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 7:22 AM MST up reply actions
That should be TB...man I hate typing in the dark!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didnāt rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Thanks Ted...I will miss your work here at MHR but look forward to following your new venture...Good Luck!!!
-Richee
-Stick to the fight when you are hardest hit - it's when things seem worst that you must not quit!
Ted, I will miss you here.
It is a shame that this site will miss your presence as I thought you always approached your analyses with judgments based in part on fact and you admitted that you could be wrong or others could have contrary viewpoints. You were my favorite writer on this blog.
You and I differ on how optimistic to be about the direction of the Broncos, and I think Mike Shanahan may have done more with less last year than McDaniels did with what was handed him this year. McDaniels has shown that he can make impulsive, dumb mid-season changes, like at punter, just as Shanahan foolishly unloaded Domenick Hixon. What has happened to Eddie Royal under McDaniels and what has happened to the offensive line and running game in general? Moreno had not shown himself to be the 2nd coming of Terrell Davis thus far and I still shake my head at the draft day moves for Quinn and Smith. All coaches battle between making dramatic changes now versus being coldly analytical about what they have, and I hope McDaniels can take some time in the off-season to reflect on what worked and what did not with his management style. I frankly hope he grows in to being a head coach and turns over the offensive coordinating to someone else.
That being said, I enjoyed your counter-analysis this past year and look forward to seeing what you will be doing in your new adventure. I like good minds, and, even better, good football minds, and I like people who understand balance, and understanding the other point of view. Good luck!
by Baltimore Bronco on Dec 29, 2009 7:40 AM MST reply actions
Good luck with your new venture
always enjoyed your work here, and looking forward to seeing what you bring with your new site.
Quite the grand finale. Rec'd.
And new site bookmarked.
Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal.
^This^
I’ve always loved your impressions from around the league. Can’t wait for that to become a more full-time thing. Please don’t be too harsh to the Chargers.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 29, 2009 8:00 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks John-
I’ll always try to be fair to every team.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 8:45 AM MST up reply actions
See you at the new site
The screen to Buckhalter was one of my best moments of vindication as a fan. The Eagles had been selling out on the blitz for the majority of the previous, I dunno, 10 plays. That’s when you call a screen pass. It worked excellent.
I dislike Massachusetts and wish I didn’t have to spend a year of my life there, but Logan Mankins is awesome. I don’t know what he’d cost, but I’d be pretty happy to have him on the team. There were a lot of running plays that year where he got so far outside and up the field, I actually believed he was the left tackle, not a guard.
Interestingly, my other great vindication as a fan was in the 2003 NFC championship game (Philly vs. TB). The announcers were pushing gritty, gutty Mike Allstot, because that’s what their script said to do. At one point I said, what, he’s got like 15 carries for 25 yards? These guys need to shut up. And then the screen flashed: 14-for-24.
It’s been great having you around here, Ted. I’ve learned a lot, and have started to see new things on the field. I still can’t believe the nice things you said about the 40th President, but hey, nobody’s perfect.
He was unquestionably a good fraternity man
When my chapter set a Guinness record, back in the mid 80s, by jumping on a trampoline for 54 straight days, he called our guys like we’d won the Super Bowl. He also called every new chapter that got chartered while he was President.
Incidentally, you and I probably agree about his legacy and record as President, but the scope of my comments was intentionally limited on the day he died, just as I don’t want to really get into detail about my thoughts here. Thanks for the kind words, and I’ll be glad to have you reading my stuff at SF.com.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 8:31 AM MST up reply actions
Book Marked the Link
But there are some things in this post that I wanted to mention as well.
1. I loved your comment about Truisms and GMs. I don’t want a GM who follows the talking heads advice about how to build a team, because it’s way too simplistic. I love what McDaniels is doing by working on all 53 guys and using FA and the Draft and trades. It’s why I’ve got a lot of hope for next week and next year.
2. Along those same lines was there anything that sucked hope out of a person like hearing that Shanny was keeping Slowick? I can’t see McDaniels doing something like that.
3. FWIW It’s not the lack of a deep passing game that’s bothering me, it’s the lack of a middle passing game that’s killing me. The 10-19 yard passes just have to be there and they really aren’t, although I will admit that they’re better now. Our pass blocking is good enough for that.
What's up with Slowik?
I’m all for loyalty, but what’s the big deal with Slowik? He’s never impressed me as a DC, but Shanny seems must really believe in him. and I wonder about Shanahan bringing in his son as OC also. Not becuase of nepotism, as Kyle’s proved himself in Houston IMO, but becuase I wonder how that would work from an organizational standpoint within the team. it seems to me that the Shanahan HC/OC duo might become a bit insulated from the players and the rest of the coaching staff. (I’m thinking of some of the things that Stefan Fatsis wrote about Shannahan in his book about the 2006 training camp – how player decisions would just come down from Shanahan’s office with no warning or consultation, etc.). Not that it matters to the Broncos, so I’m not going to worry about it, but it just seems that Shanahan’s building this fortified, impervious coaching structure when he’d probably be more sucessful if he was forced to work as more of a part of a larger team. (again, just my opinion).
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 9:12 AM MST up reply actions
Yep.
There is wisdom in your thought, Hercules.
I worry that both Shanahan and McDaniels have these fatal flaws of impetuous decision-making, unchecked by experienced counter-thought. It hurt in 2008 and it hurt in 2009.
by Baltimore Bronco on Dec 29, 2009 9:49 AM MST up reply actions
Ted -
I want to agree with you take on the Broncos future. I even see validity in your claims about Ayers. He does seem almost there on a lot of plays.
BUT… and you knew this was coming. The guy has zero sacks in 2009 and only 18 tackles. The guy made just 3 sacks in his Sr. season in college and only a handful of sacks in college overall so it’s pretty fair to say sacks are not his strong suit (playing across from Elvis-whom is game planned for and still getting ZERO sacks bothers me quite a bit.)
So then I want to assume Ayers is a tackling machine, but 18 total tackles (barely more than 1 per game for a guy that sees a lot of snaps) is a very low number. No sacks and few tackles, what is this guyās role? Is Ayers nothing more than an ancillary role player? You DON’T draft role players in the middle of round 1 (expensive contract) and Ayers was nothing more than a supplementary player in his rookie year ā if this continues, heāll never see a second contract with Denver.
BUT he did show enough promise for me to "hope" he makes something of himself in year 2. Something much better than zero sacks and 18 tackles. That said, Ayers will turn 25 before the 2010 season. He is an old rookie and has no more physical upside. His upside will be mental and I’m not sure he has the head on his shoulders to get there. Same thing for Alphonso Smith, who will also turn 25 next season.
I’ve made no secret I’m down (always have been) on our 2009 draft and Moreno hitting the rookie wall harder than any rookie I remember really pisses me off. After the 12th game vs the Chefs (the natural end of a college season) Moreno’s play fell off a cliff. Unlike Ayers and Smith, Moreno is a young guy (just 22) and I expect him to improve more than anyone before 2010.
As our entire 2008 rookie class went through varying degrees of a Sophomore slump, me thinks Denver’s 2010 success will hinge primarily on how much our rookie and 2nd year guys improve. Seeing no improvement during the 2009 season, Iām not taking player improvement to the bank. I have little evidence to suggest I should.
Weird Bronco year, some major highs and major lows. I’ll be glad when it’s over and wish very much for a quiet offseason. We are better off than we were after the 2008 season and the holes in our roster, while glaring (interior O-line, punter, ST coach, depth) are not nearly as numerous or appalling as the need to replace just about the entire 2008 defense.
I wish McDaniels the best of luck reshaping our roster and coaching staff (see ya Prieffer and Dennison), getting our young players to step the hell up, and coaching us to the playoffs in 2010.
And for all you McGeorge haters⦠Cutler sucks ā I said it.
Happy new year.
This is my favorite website.
This brings me back to my favorite proposal
Move Rick Dennison back to special teams coach. He did an excellent job, and now that they’re going away from zone blocking, his learned expertise on the offensive line has little value left.
I had the exact same thought last night while watching the Vikings ST debacle.
Move Dennison back to ST and Preiffer on to a job cleaning toilets or something else he is actually qualified for. Preiffer is Scott OāBrien 2.0.
This is my favorite website.
Last Night
Cutler sure didn’t suck last night. To bad we can’t merge the maturity of Orton with the physical skills of Cutler…. maybe we had both with the later years of HOF John Elway.
by Baltimore Bronco on Dec 29, 2009 8:29 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
It’s also too bad that I can’t fly. That would be rad.
Jay Cutler had his designated keep-the-CutlerCrushers-in-thrall game last night. He’ll have one or two every year, ensuring that they’ll be back in their heart-shaped sunglasses with a new book of excuses next season.
by Remember Keith Kartz! on Dec 29, 2009 9:00 AM MST up reply actions
Kartz was good and so was Cutler
hey, I liked Keith Kartz, and we sure could have used him this year, but I don’t like your attitude about Cutler. Cutler gave his guts for Denver the years he was here and I wish him the best in the future. Bitterness does not suit former Broncos and I sure wish we had Cutler in that final drive by Denver in Philly. He stretched the field in a way that his successor never will.
by Baltimore Bronco on Dec 29, 2009 9:44 AM MST up reply actions
This is why,
“It’s a lot (different). Denver’s like a 6 and Chicago’s like a 9. It’s a quite bit different. Just the fans and how passionate they are, that’s probably the biggest difference.”
Denver, am I looking forward to it? No. Just the whole hoopla that’s going to come along with it," he said. “I’m excited to go back and see some of the guys there. I’ve got some really good friends back there, and get back to Denver and see if my house is still standing. Other than that, that’s about all I’m excited about Denver.”
Denver rookie head coach Josh McDaniels doesn't have a grasp on how to build a team." - John Clayton, April 23rd, 2009
Maturity
I agree with all regarding the need for Jay Cutler to mature. Where I disagree with others is in his capacity to do so. John Elway and Brett Favre had their share of issues with immaturity. Both grew up. Guys in their mid-20’s do have room to change. Have many of you had to deal with getting diabetes in your mid-20’s while playing in the NFL?
I think McDaniels embarrassed Cutler by the way he awkwardly handled those trade negotiations and everything spiraled out of control after that. Cassel certainly has not set the league on fire this season. In Chicago, Cutler lacked many of the supporting players he had in Denver, but look what he had done with some of the weaker cast he has there now.
Let’s enjoy Denver maturing as a team next year and I hope Cutler matures as well. He is fun to watch. I hope Denver’s offense is fun to watch next year.
by Baltimore Bronco on Dec 29, 2009 9:59 AM MST up reply actions
I don’t think Cutler has improved one bit from 2007 to 2009. His decision making might even be worse and you can tell his confidence is shot.
His lack of progression from year 2 to year 4 would scare the crap out of me as a Bears fan.
This is my favorite website.
+1
Last nights’ game was a peak…the valley will be next week…he’s been doing this his hole friggin short-lived career.
"Precipitation, which side are you on?
Are you on the rise? Are you falling down?
Let me know, Come on let's go, yeah
Got some if you need it!" -EV
That's been my concern ever since the end of the 2007 season
After 2007, I had a couple of concerns about Cutler, some of which he addressed and some of which he didn’t. The things I wanted to see him do better were:
Throw the deep ball better – there were a few passes on which he underthrew Brandon Marshall in 2007. This did improve (it may have been due to a diabetes-related lack of energy late in games)
Audible more often – a sucessful QB needs to do more than just execute the play, he needs to marshall the offense on the field. IMO Peyton Manning is no more athletic QB than Cutler, but he does an excellent job of diagnosing the play at the line of scrimage (among other things that he does that make him special). This hasn’t appreciably improved at all IMO
Be a more vocal leader – this is a double edged sword. He got more vocal, which I liked, but he’s also developed habit of calling out his WR’s whenever he throws a pick.
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 3:39 PM MST up reply actions
When did Denison do a good job as special teams coach?
The broncos special teams have been horrible as long as I can remember. D-will had a couple of returns a few years back, but you have to go back to the 90’s to remember a time when the special teams wasn’t a liability, back when Elam had the leg to boot decent kickoffs and Rouen still had some hang time on his punts.
Of course, back then the roster was loaded with depth, and lately it’s clearly not been. So that leads me to wonder if special teams play depends more on talent or coaching? I’ve heard both touted as the answer in the past, so I honestly have no clue.
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 9:17 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Dennison was S/T Coach During the Superbowl Years
Those were the best Broncos’ special teams I could remember. Very good in the return game, few lapses on the coverage teams. Football Outsiders, which adjusts for altitude, etc., lists them as a top-10 unit during that time.
For the record, I think the special teams are on the ascent. Berger is terrible (not Priefer’s fault) and since the Washington debacle, things have been very good. They’re starting to get plus yards out of the return game. If you look at the FO stats, you see they’re on their way to being a middle-of-the-road unit, and that they’re primarily being held back by the punting game. I know the Washington game was excruciating. I know that. But hard though it is to believe, we’ve already seen a lot of improvement.
yeah, you're probably right
… but it’s been such a frustration for so long, it’s hard to be optimistic. Prater’s been a pleasant surprise this season, but the punting is cringe-worthy. I’d give my right arm to have another Mike Horan on the team!
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 3:41 PM MST up reply actions
I totally disagree with you about Ayers
Did you see the tackle he made coming all the way over from the other side of the field to run down the RB from behind. He’s got all the upside that we need. What he would really benefit from is an upgrade at the RDE spot, and the d-line over-all.
by Fan in Exile on Dec 29, 2009 8:30 AM MST up reply actions
I did see that tackle and I noted that I have a decent amount of hope that Ayers developes into an impact player.
But the stats don’t lie. A 1st round pick needs to make plays, a lot of plays and Ayers didn’t.
I also agree that we could use an upgrade at both DE spots – but it’s not as pressing as a new LG or C. Hochstein is the worst starting LG in the NFL and Hamilton is the worst LG backup. Makes me wonder about Olsen and why he could not get on the field this season. He couldn’t have been worse than Hoch or Ben. Could he?
This is my favorite website.
You should read this:
Ayers is being asked to play the Haggan role. When expectations don’t match the role of the player there is bound to be dissappointment, I guess.
The selfish, they're all standing in line
Faithing and hoping to buy themselves time
Me, I figure as each breath goes by
I only own my mind-- Pearl Jam, "I am Mine"
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 29, 2009 9:55 AM MST up reply actions
That is wrong. He is not being asked to play Haggan’s role, just his position and to play it on different downs.
Ayers is out there most often on passing downs, yet Hagan is the only one with a sack.
I often get accused of being too hard on the rookies, but I can accurately state that several at MHR are too easy on the rookies. Rookies get paid too, and in Ayers case, get paid a lot. These guys are paid to make plays and I expect a hell of a lot more from Ayers in 2010.
This is my favorite website.
You're exactly right...
He replaces Haggan in passing situation mostly. Good stuff McGeorge
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 10:32 AM MST up reply actions
No, actually its not wrong.
Although its easy to confuse him playing in nickel situations as being a pure pass rush role, its simply not accurate. He’s not consistently asked to be Doom’s twin. Yes, sometimes he rushes. More often he fills the typical SS OLB role, which is to keep other guys clean and contain the pocket/edges. Just because he isn’t the player you think he’s supposed to be doesn’t mean he’s not doing the job hes being asked to to.
The selfish, they're all standing in line
Faithing and hoping to buy themselves time
Me, I figure as each breath goes by
I only own my mind-- Pearl Jam, "I am Mine"
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 29, 2009 10:33 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I think what McGeorge means
and I know that what I mean, is that Haggan is mostly being asked to set the edge in the running game, and Ayers is mostly playing on passing downs. Now, I know that Ayers is playing contain a lot of times instead of all out rushing, and he’s in coverage a lot, but I don’t think saying that Ayers and Haggan are doing the same thing is accurate. It may be semantically true that they’re playing the same position, but their roles are different.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 10:39 AM MST up reply actions
I'm not saying they're being asked to do the same exact thing...
…but they are two players sharing a position. Whether its base, nickel, dime, whatever…the Haggan/Ayers role is different than what a pure rush OLB is asked to do.
The selfish, they're all standing in line
Faithing and hoping to buy themselves time
Me, I figure as each breath goes by
I only own my mind-- Pearl Jam, "I am Mine"
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 29, 2009 12:39 PM MST up reply actions
If zero sacks and 18 tackles in 15 games is the player Ayers (a mid 1st round pick) is, I’m real damn positive he is not the players his coaches and GMs felt he was supposed to be.
He has flashed a decent amount for a guy learning a new position in the NFL. He has shown a lot more than say an Alphonso Smith, but still YOU should expect a lot more from Ayers in 2010. I know his coaches and GM will or else he won’t be a Bronco for long. Not at a mid 1st round pick salary anyway. Denver didn’t pick him to be a less effective version of Mario Haggan. They picked him to be a star on our defense. A star makes plays, a lot of plays. Be those plays tackles, picks, sacks, QB pressures, forced fumbles, etc.
No team pays a 1st round pick salary to supplementary players.
This is my favorite website.
I think Ayers grades out pretty well most games, is all I'm saying
I can’t say for sure, obviously, because I don’t hear the defensive calls. But as I understand the Nolan D and as I’ve watched Ayers, I’ve come to respect him. This is a large leap for a guy that flat out hated the pick. Its not just about me trying to find the bright side…or trying to be easy on the picks. Its trying to evaluate him on what it appears he is doing rather than how he would be doing if he was playing Doom’s position.
I would argue that Ayers was originally picked because the jury on Doom as a 3-4 OLB was still out. In a defense in which certain players get the glory roles, the althernative was to force Ayers into a role that Doom plays remarkably well. This was a bad week to pick an Ayers fight, because he was being sent on almost every snap he played against Philly— but over the course of the season this hasn’t been the case. Even this week, though, I saw some very bright moments from him. To me, if he is forever consigned to being the Lamarr Woodley of the Denver defense, I’m cool with it. Those guys are very valuable even if they aren’t nearly as exciting.
The selfish, they're all standing in line
Faithing and hoping to buy themselves time
Me, I figure as each breath goes by
I only own my mind-- Pearl Jam, "I am Mine"
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 29, 2009 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
If grading out as a C- is considered grading out well…. then I guess he grades out well.
Of course he gets an INC. for the game where he was a healthy scratch.
You are too easy on Ayers. His rookie year was average (if we are being generous).
This is my favorite website.
The same could be said about the 3rd pick, Tyson Jackson.
DE 94 Jackson, Tyson ACT TCKL 35 SCK 0.0 FF 0 INT — KC
The guy most people around here were wetting their pants for even when Draft geeks were saying he is sometimes lazy. That got shuffled to the back of his resum’e. I believe Ayers will be a player who will learn more and more as he plays. Next year will be ticker-tape on him and Smith as concerning any disabilities of McD/X’s drafting technigues.
I know I haven’t said Tyson Jackson has a great season. He didn’t. He too was a slight disappointment with some good moments mixed in.
Most everyone agrees he was a huge reach at #3 overall and the contract he signed was painful for KC to pay out. Jackson makes tens of millions more than Ayers over the next few years. Jackson is a better player than Ayers, but not at Jacksonās uber-expensive price point. Factor in salary and Iād take Ayers in a heartbeat over Tyson Jackson.
I firmly believe KC is the worst drafting team in the NFL the last few years (with busts like Dorsey, Fat Alberts, Steroid Bowe, Derrick Johnson, Ryan Sims). They are even worse than the Rams.
This is my favorite website.
What I meant...
…is that I bet Ayers grades-out well in the coaches weekly evaluations. Not perfect, by any means, but I doubt the Broncos are nearly as disappointed in him as you are.
The selfish, they're all standing in line
Faithing and hoping to buy themselves time
Me, I figure as each breath goes by
I only own my mind-- Pearl Jam, "I am Mine"
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 29, 2009 2:32 PM MST up reply actions
I bet the Broncos feel almost exactly the way I do about Ayers.
i.e. – Ayers showed some promise and he could have been quite a bit better in 2009. Hence, an average to slightly below average rookie year with some progress mixed in.
Unlike Alphonso Smith. Who has a disappointing season with no progress as a player.
This is my favorite website.
And Mario Haggan.
59 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles (Goodman returned one for a TD) and 1 sack.
Pretty good for a supposed no talent NFL journey man and a lot better than Ayers.
This is my favorite website.
Haggan is a good man
There aren’t many players who are as good at the thankless stuff that he does as he is,
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 10:40 AM MST up reply actions
Haggen has exceeded my expectations.
The only player on Denver’s D that didn’t meet or exceed expectations was Alphoso Smith. He is the runaway winner of most disappointing defensive player on Denver’s defense. The more I watch him, the more I see a guy that will have a very short NFL career.
Ayers, DJ and Bailey didn’t play quite as well as I hoped, but at least I can point to positive contributions and decent play from those two highly paid defenders. The rest of the D. Wow… The 2007-2008 D seems like a distant memory after the stellar play of the 2009 version.
This is my favorite website.
and my expectations as well.
I posted some frustrations with him being names starter back in training camp and I’ve got to eat some crow for that.
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 3:46 PM MST up reply actions
In this case the stats don't lie
but they are being used incorrectly. Until he gets help up front those stats are measuring the D-line performance and not Ayer’s. Watch the times he get’s double teamed out of plays, that shouldn’t be happening to an OLB the D-line needs to step up.
I think LG seems like the biggest problem because people aren’t blaming Orton for being is unathletic as he truly is, and they expect LB to be amazing even if they aren’t getting the help they need.
by Fan in Exile on Dec 29, 2009 10:21 AM MST up reply actions
Not me. I already called Orton the least athletic QB I’ve ever watched play. He has taken some absolutely terrible sacks this season due to his feet being stuck in cement and a complete lack of balance. His lack of athletism is one thing that will eternally keep him out of the Top 10 current NFL QB debate.
Orton is a good QB, but I am speechless when he attempts to scramble. It’s painful to watch.
This is my favorite website.
it's a highly underestimated talent void.
i don’t think the broncos should make a run for jay cutler in 2010 but watching him last night reminded me of his skill in avoiding sacks and buying time to give himself and his receivers opportunity to make something happen (likely an interception but that’s another issue). cutler moves in the pocket, moves out of the pocket, hell, he even moves the pocket. it’s always been his best skill and it tends to make his O line look better than it is in pass protection.
orton on the other hand, well, when a blind man knows where to find you on every play and knows you won’t move from that spot even when you have to… it’s costly. guaranteed that every team in the league knows that orton’s plays have to go down in exactly 3 seconds or less. plan accordingly.
This is a reason why I’ll be A-OK if we select Sam Bradford or Jim Claussen in round 1 of the 2010 NFL draft.
This is my favorite website.
i'd take either of those guys.
especially bradford because with his injury history he can be had for a couple of schillings and a plastic comb.
does it bother anyone else that shanahan had the “plug in anyone” running back situation that ended up going to hockey sticks in a hand basket and we’ve replace that with the “plug in anyone” quarterback situation and no alarms are going off? give me a plug in running back scheme over a plug in quarterback scheme any day of any week.
QB is the most important position in ALL OF SPORTS and we’ve got kyle orton raised on our shoulders. huzzah.
Orton's refusal to run drives me crazy.
There was a 3rd and 3, I think in the 2nd quarter, in which he could have easily run for the first down, but instead forced a low throw (I think to Gaffney but it might have been Stokely) that went incomplete. he’s driving me absolutely crazy. Heck, even Brian Griese could tuck it in and run for a couple yards when he needed to.
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 3:50 PM MST up reply actions
yes. yes. and YES.
i had just told my dad a few plays before that how it drives me FREAKING NUTS that orton can’t even walk for a first down when the lane in front of him practically has policemen waving him on with bright orange flares and a voice from heaven yelling “do it! go NOW!”
my dad called me after that play and said,“you mean, like that?”
…and excellent comparison to griese. griese had a lot worse pocket awareness than orton does but he was at least able to jog forward for a yard or two when the play called for it.
Did you see how heavily taped his ankles were ? I wouldnt be surprised if he was under instructions to not try and be a hero
We just cant risk him getting hurt again as well not with the running game struggling like it is .
too true
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
"That's MR.Styg..."
by Jeremy Bolander on Dec 30, 2009 12:32 AM MST up reply actions
why not? were we trying to save his golf game? ;-)
that last game was pretty much do or die. if the quarterback can’t jog ahead for two yards for a crucial first down… well, hmm… i hope that wasn’t the game plan.
Best of luck, Ted
Look forward to the new product…
"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington
Good Luck, Ted. It looks like a lot of work.
I’ve bookmarked your site, so I won’t miss ST&NO even though it will be on another site. Don’t forget about MHR when you’re famous.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Girl, you don't need to be a 10, as long as you have a good smile and smell like bacon.
Good luck Ted
Tuesday afternoons were always great to look forward to, knowing that ST&NO would be online by the time I got home…
Bookmarked and signed up for your new website, and will be a loyal reader! I enjoy writing but don’t consider myself expert on the subjects you mentioned. However, if you need any other help feel free to get in touch (google wave/twitter).
Bleeding Orange & Blue in The Netherlands
Thanks Ted, I hope you plan on visiting and commenting here still.
The player I’ve been most upset this year with is DJ. He like Ayers is around the ball all the time, but to me DJ always seems to be at the feet of players running by him, as well as biting on double moves from whoever the hell he tries to cover. I can handle Ayres always being close to play, but DJ needs to make the play. Nuff of that rant.
Goodluck with your future endeavor. =)
Denver rookie head coach Josh McDaniels doesn't have a grasp on how to build a team." - John Clayton, April 23rd, 2009
I will still visit here, of course
This is the best place in the world for Broncos-specific content, and I am still a Broncos fan
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 10:08 AM MST up reply actions
Good last write-up Ted.
I have always enjoyed reading your ST & NOs. They provide positive and negative insight that can inspire but also humble a fans’ feelings about their team. You have that perfect balance of depicting a team in a positive and negative light.
Good luck with your new website…I’ll be sure to check it out!
Rec’d!
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
Hopefully the site appearance will be better than it is now. Especially the banner image
If you need any free graphic help, let me know … I’ve been in the advertising/design business for 16+ years.
That said, I love the concept of SmarterFans.com. Reading ST&NOs, you certainly know the game, and I truly appreciate your analysis.
Wait 'til next millennium!
I was trying to come up with a polite way to say this but couldn’t so I kept my mouth shut =)
by Todd Jewell on Dec 29, 2009 10:53 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah, graphics aren't my thing, really
That logo was sort of a working concept. I’d be happy to have your help, but I don’t see an email address listed for you. Could you email me at ted@smarterfans.com when you have a chance? Your help is most appreciated.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 12:54 PM MST up reply actions
Based on his observations in the preseason, Peter King did pick the Chefs to be 9-7. So he does have some of his own thoughts.
This is my favorite website.
That's a fair point
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 12:52 PM MST up reply actions
When you write that Peter King doesn't know anything that someone hasn't told him...
I’m not sure if you’re being too hard on King or not here. The way I see it, he’s not any sort of an analyst at all, and shouldn’t be writing the sort of collumn that he does. he’s an excellent reporter though, and by that definitlion it’s actually better to not know anything that someon hasn’t told him, at least that way we know he’s presenting un-biased reporting.
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 3:55 PM MST up reply actions
Thank you, Ted, for your fantastic contributions.
Wow, am I going to miss your column on this site. 
But just because I dearly love MHR (I joined when there weren’t yet all that many members), don’t think I’m not interested in your new one . . . and I believe I speak for a good many of us here. Best of luck, Ted, with that (I’ll be there), and remember: all it takes to come over here to continue to be a part of us is a click of the mouse.
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
Well, Ted, I wrote this before I read the last section here . . .
Rest assured, I’ll be catching ST&NO over there . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
Great column, as always
I’ll have to make sure to check out the new site — it looks great, by the way.
There’s just one thing I have to disagree with: no matter what happens with injuries/momentum, etc, I just can never be really okay with throwing a game, even if it is ‘meaningless’. I realize that if Peyton Manning or any of the others gets injured it’s a problem, I get that, but I just can’t be okay with purposefully letting a game go, not in the spirit of competition. Put simply, I don’t think it’s right. That’s all.
Carlos Gonzalez is a sexy man
G'luck!
Will the new site have a column similar to this one?
by RockyMountainHigh on Dec 29, 2009 1:13 PM MST reply actions
It will have a bunch of stuff similar to this
I won’t call it ST&NO, but the essence of what you’ve seen here will be split over Monday and Tuesdays. I’ll have new stuff up just about every game, so I hope you’ll check us out frequently.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Dec 29, 2009 1:37 PM MST up reply actions
Better content, better world
Thank you for the great posts at MHR. See you at SmarterFans. Happy New Year.
Well done, sir.
Your finale may have been your most impressive analysis of a Broncos game yet.
"A man can fail, but he is not a failure until he blames someone else." J. Paul Getty
Great work, Ted
A couple of questions, if I might. I keep seeing Wes Woodyard getting beaten in coverage on the TE (he’s also made some good plays, certainly). do you see a reason that Josh Barrett isn’t being used on the TE? He’s done well there before.
I’m starting to think that although I love DJ, he’s a touch slow in reacting. Since he came out as a LB/FB’Hback (forgive me, I didn’t make it up – blame nfldraftscouts.com!), might he be a bit slow for his current position? Reid is a heck of a player at times, but I’ve started to wonder if he has skillset for the OLB position. Any specific thoughts on any of this?
Thanks. Your work is always a pleasure to read – I’ll see you at your next site.
Best,
Doc
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Ted it's been a pleasure sir! Good luck in your endeavors in the future.
One thing that you brought up in the article; If a team makes the playoffs in an uncapped year then they can only acquire F/A’s to fill the spots they let go. That wouldn’t be so awful bad in my mind if you have players you are going to cut anyway, would it? For instance, if we for some reason make the playoffs and at the end of our season McD cuts Berger then we are able to pick up a Punter in free agency? And so?
You can only sign FA's to replace players lost in FA
It doesn’t have to be a player-for-player swap, but rather, if you lose x $$ in FA’s, you can spend that amount on FA’s of your own. So if we were to cut Berger, and then we lose, say, Kuper in FA, we can use that $$ to pick up a FA punter.
The bigger problem is that you can’t be active in the initial round of FA shopping becuase you have to lose someone before you can start signing.
Don’t quote me on the details, but that’s the gist of it.
Belief is accepting something because youāve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.
by Hercules Rockefeller on Dec 29, 2009 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
Great work, Ted! I've learned a lot following you, and will continue to do so!
I like that you even gave some time to stats!
"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but thatās the truth." --Brian Urlacher
Thanks Ted
I too have learned a thing or three from you. I will be sure to stop by, frequently. Best wishes in the New Year.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Good luck Ted
I will enthusiastically follow your work.
Just remeber – It’s ‘I COULDN’T give a damn’, not ‘I COULD give a damn’.
LOL
See you soon on your new site. I look forward to it. You produce great work.
Don't argue with fools. It's how they reproduce.
by TheMastermind on Dec 30, 2009 12:11 AM MST via mobile reply actions

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