Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week
Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.
Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.
It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.
The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.
For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.
It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.
About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.
When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.
Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.
Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.
It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.
Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.
The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.
In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.
An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.
At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.
There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?
A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.
Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.
I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.
I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.
In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.
It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.
And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.
If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:
The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.
Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.
Throwdown, Elvis Style
Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.
When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.
Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.
It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.
If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.
What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.
There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.
Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.
It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.
This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.
That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.
I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.
Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:
"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."
Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.
Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).
Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.
By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:
During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.
To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.
By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.
Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.
There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.
It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:
"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."
What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.
You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.
Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .
Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.
Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.
"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.
Kansas City Here I Come
Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.
KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.
The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.
One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.
There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...
Go Broncos!
29 recs |
144 comments
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Comments
Great job Doc...
As another that has been in the Kyle Orton fan club since pre season, I too am stoked we have him. Hes a tough OB with a good arm, GREAT intangibles more mobility than credited for.
It is no wonder that he was voted MOST under rated player BY HIS PEERS….thats some high kudos right there!
SImple stuff works, and that the formula to our success.
I can see our offense taking some more steps forward, and I agree with Phil Simms. If our club makes the play offs we are going to be a match up that NO club wants….we can beat anyone when we play like we did against the Giants!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didnāt rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Dec 3, 2009 7:50 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
Always a pleasure Doc,
I hope some of your fans on the team read this.
Cause I believe you’ve hit the head on the nail!
Rec’d
Go Broncos
Real Power, comes with the realization that One cannot change the Moment;
only ones perception of it: Atitude! JQM
Brilliant..just brilliant
This is the kind of info that makes me love MHR.
I love to break down film, and this is such a great way to learn what to pay attention to…
Rec’d!
Bleeding Orange & Blue in The Netherlands
Great Stuff
Thanks! I’ll be at the KC game. One thought – This is the latest in the season we have played KC for the first time. That means the prior record in KC in December was always the 2nd meeting. Think that makes any difference? Since we have owned them just as much in Denver as they have us in KC, maybe we became overly confident after handling them early in the season…
by Broncoholic_07 on Dec 3, 2009 7:52 AM MST via mobile reply actions
I'll be there too...
Here’s to seeing a live Denver victory for the 3rd time (in my 10th annual Den/KC game at Arrowhead)
Very Nice
I’ll be on my 3rd annual and 5th Den/KC game overall. I was there in Jan 98 for the playoff game. Greatest game I’ve ever been to live and I don’t know if anything can ever top it. Unless I get to a Broncos SB win!
by Broncoholic_07 on Dec 3, 2009 2:47 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Cheers
I’ll be there, too. As many as we can get.
My buddy and I always get in trouble for doing the Tomahawk Chop when the Broncos score. Turns out Chefs fans don’t like that…
by Remember Keith Kartz! on Dec 3, 2009 5:37 PM MST up reply actions
Rec'd.
"All by their heads, he places crowns."
by Tempestuous Binary on Dec 3, 2009 8:26 AM MST reply actions
Fantastic read as per usual Mr. Smith...Rec'd
IMHO…The playoffs have already started and we are 1-0…The guys need to continue to play with that playoff intensity and we will be able to give ANY team an run for their money…
“Take It!!!”…Go Broncos!
so
i have a general question and hope to not come across as too dumb, but when you talk about gap defensive discipline, what exactly would i be looking for in the upcoming KC game to determine whether we do a good job with this or not ?
is it simply a matter of staying with your man and in your lane/gap or is there more to it than that ? all the time you see linebackers ‘shoot the gap’ and quite often they miss (sometimes they make the big play also) and is this a part of gap defensive discipline also or are these players gambling or… ?
Thanks for the good question, JT
There are a few aspects to gap discipline. The first is maintaining your gap through design – in other words, you employ your front 3 to take up blockers and you maneuver them to create openings for the LBs to knife through. When those holes are opening, more often than not you’re handling the scheme well. The second aspect is sheer physicality – to maintain gap discipline, you have to win the one-on-one and two on one contests with the O-line. That’s where leverage and technique come in – the Broncos don’t have the kind of size that some defensive lines do, even though they’re bigger this year than in recent year’s past (For some reason, Denver’s coaches have always tended to smaller, lighter, more athletic defensive lineman, even going back to Joe Collier). They need their guys to use good technique to defeat the O-line and to require it to employ double teams, which benefit our linebackers and safety play.
If you’re seeing openings to the QB being created, LBs finding gaps along the O-line areas of responsibility and double-teams that have to happen so that the DL doesn’t penetrate, you can assume that we’re playing well. If the running plays are finding obstructions within a couple of yards of the LOS, that’s a good indication as well.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
I loved that!
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Superb Doc, thanks and rec'd
"A great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do" Walter Gagenot
"Hope sees the invisible, feels the intangible and achieves the impossible."
Thanks Dr. Smith
I love what Orton brings to our team, and I personally can’t wait for him to master this offense. However I’m very concerned if he goes down with another injury. When Simms took over our O resembled nothing of an NFL team. Simms went 3-13 for 13yrds and one int, c’mon man. Anyone happen to know if Brandstater has moved to 2nd team in Simms place?
Denver rookie head coach Josh McDaniels doesn't have a grasp on how to build a team." - John Clayton, April 23rd, 2009
Great read.
Drafting off a short board only works if your scouts are good enough to indentify the players that will fit the system and weed out those that donāt.
Does Brian Cushing fit our system?
Does Rey Maualuga?
Does Ayers fit our system?
Does Alphonso Smith? Maybe, but maybe not.
The guys we picked in 2009 may not fit our system or may not turn into good NFL This is why I dislike a short board approach from a scout group that has no previous experience running a draft soup to nuts.
Would Jarius Byrd or Sean Smith fit our system? Were they on our short board? Who knows. I havenāt seen enough from the McDaniels regime to assume they are draft specialists that can effectively use short board. I donāt think Iāve seen at MHR say our 2009 picks were busts. But I know Iāve said and Iāll continue to say that some of those picks have disappointed thus far. Namely Alphonso Smith, the most controversial pick. That is not an unfair assessment at this point (itās just disappointment, I feel the same way about Ayers to a lesser extent). These guys have 11 NFL games under the belts, that is a pretty big sample size of which to offer a 1st quarter grade.
This is my favorite website.
+1
My hope would be that Xanders/McDaniels are approaching the way they play defensive rookies in the same way as the Steelers for example, where the rookies are groomed up over a period of 2-3 years to eventually take the place of the incumbent starters with no drop off in performance.
I have seen flashes of talent from both Ayers and Smith this year, and also some times they have gone missing, OTOH, the fact they have not been out on the field so much may be by design. Have they had as big an impact as a Brian Cushing or a Vonta Leach/Sean Smith combo? No, but those two players have been installed as every down players as focal points of their defenses. It is also worth noting that as well as those two for example have played, their teams have losing records this seasons and are unlikely to make the playoffs.
Therefore I expect a much bigger impact from Ayers and Smith next season when they are given more of a free rein. Of course I may be wrong, but I’d prefer to be optimistic
by djmbluemoon on Dec 3, 2009 9:49 AM MST up reply actions 5 recs
this is a good place for my comment on the "short board"
Tight Spots
It didn’t take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year’s Combine. He’ll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos’ faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it’s still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He’d look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.
About Quinn – the Broncos drafted off of a ‘short board’ this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn’t see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I’m not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn’t played his best for a few games.
There’s a subtle mathematical point that I’ve tried to get across concerning rankings. What’s misleading about ranking systems is that they state unequivocally that certain players are “better” as if a single talent number line exists and all players can rated on that ranking system. In essence, what’s true for one is true for all, and vice versa.
At their best, the rankings are a rough measure of of talent irrespective of position. But at their worst, they are a a somewhat meaningless listing of players, some of whom are simply scheme-inappropriate or otherwise poor choices for a team’s objectives. The single Big Board that analysts use purportedly applies to every team, applies to no team. There’s one-size-fits-all fallacy being employed. Teams DO agree somewhat on who the best players are, but there’s considerable divergence, too. When we speak of “better,” we’ve swept aside the apples and oranges distinctions that exist between players and embraced a mathematical idealization.
The question of whether Quinn was good in the overall sense that embraces a mathematical fiction is a moot point. Moreover, as many analysts have stated, the ratings for TEs were biased towards TEs who could catch rather than block, which is a problem since that wasn’t what we needed, nor wanted. Blocking TEs are both a throwback and a modern development. Teams that confront 3-4 schemes on a regular basis need blocking TEs — and I’ve posted on this before.
Blocking tight ends are back.
Brandon Pettigrew, the first tight end selected (20th, Lions), is a blocker, not a pass catcher in the Antonio Gates mold. Pettigrew was no surprise, but Richard Quinn of North Carolina was. Quinn caught just eight passes in 2008, but the Broncos thought enough of his blocking to select him in the second round.
With so many defenses switching to 3-4 schemes and aligning linebackers far away from the offensive tackles, offenses must adjust by making sure their tight ends can pass protect. Zone-and-stretch blocking schemes also require good blocking tight ends who can control linebackers and "wash out" defenders on the back side of plays. A total of 16 tight ends were selected in all: not bad for a position that was on the verge of extinction when the run ānā shoot defense was in vogue.
Quinn hasn’t demonstrated why we drafted him yet but the rationale for picking a blocking TE is sound. It should also be noted that the 3 TEs known as outstanding blockers went in the 1st, 2nd and 4th rounds — Pettigrew, Quinn and Hill. While many people see lack of production, I turn that argument on it’s head. We have an enormous amount of youth that will develop over time. Expectations are always too high for rookies, and we see this in the arguments made for drafting certain prospects before every draft. This doesn’t mean that Quinn will automatically become a success in time, but the plan was always to groom him for his position while Graham and Scheffler continue as starters. The fact that Quinn hasn’t accrued many statistics yet is to be expected. And even if he were to make a major contribution, his use as a blocker will largely be unmeasured.
no goats, no glory.
by Colinski on Dec 3, 2009 11:02 PM MST up reply actions 5 recs
Well put, and I agree. The one place where I think the one-size-fits-all big board can be an asset is in mining the discrepancy between a short board and a one-size board to move up/down in the draft and maximize value. I feel that Quinn was worth a 2nd rounder to the Broncos. But if he wasn’t worth that to anyone else, why couldn’t they have stood pat (or traded down) to get him?
I know that hindsight is 20-20. I guess I’m saying that I’d like to know how a team uses its own short board to gauge the effective demand for certain players.
Sounds like buyer's remorse.
I find it odd to read the comments on a Denver board (KC fan, here) stressing the importance of a blocking TE in a zone blocking scheme, when the Bronco SB Champs featured Shannon Sharpe, who did more to frustrate LBs as a receiver. And Denver ran a lot outta the spread, as I recall.
As far as measuring the draft position for the blocking TE you need, as long as you’re pretty much avoiding the 1st round, I wouldn’t need to see a tape measure or use a magnifying glass. I thought 2nd round for a near-sure-fire blocking TE with some ball skills was entirely appropriate. And if things had gone my way as a KC fan, Denver would’ve had their way with the Cassel trade, KC would’ve retained their 2nd pick, and used that pick for OL (either directly or trading down for a couple interior linemen, in particular C). They brought Cassel into a poor situation behind that line.
I was disappointed by KC’s relative inactivity on the blocking TE front.
Really like some of the other comments on this thread distinguishing between individual stats and TEAM RESULTS. That blocking TE with crappy stats might be creating stats for others. And those few catches he makes may very well be game-changing 3rd down conversions that are easy to make because it’s something you don’t show very often, so defenses struggle to tighten-down their execution against that particular threat. An x-ray weapon that, once it becomes known remains a giant pain in the rear for defenses, because it pulls them out of position for stopping other things you want to do on a more regular basis. A real damned if you do, damned if you don’t kind of player to have, like a Kevin Boss.
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
Yep...but did not we have Carswell as a blocking TE too in many sets....it was not juts big play Shay!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didnāt rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Thanks for adding that, Colinski
I’m in agreement with you — the smaller differences in players that make them suitable or inappropriate for the Broncos may not be known to the fans, but they are essential to understanding exactly who the team goes after and why.
As far as Quinn, we used two 3rd round picks in exchange for a 2nd and a 4th. The second was the last pick in the 2nd round and we took Quinn. Would anything matter if we took him in the 3rd instead of the last pick of the second? One factor in any draft is need and a lot of teams have ended up needing a good blocking TE who has promise in the receiving game. He might have been gone if we waited -0 Mangini, for example, praised McD’s choices in the draft – Cleveland had some similar needs, for example, and we can’t guess how the rest of the draft might have gone. We still managed to get Bruton with the 4th we picked up as well as Olsen in that same round. Considering that both Bruton and Quinn have been active on STs, I’m perfectly Ok letting time weave its course and letting those players grow into the job.
Finally – the points regarding excessive expectations for rookies is dead on. While a few 1st and 2nd round players come into situation where they had to play immediately and did fine, that’s not the norm. One reason that PIT is so good, consistently, is that they rarely have to play rookies and when they do, it’s usually in a reduced role, such as their work with Evander Hood (who I also rated highly). I mentioned it above, but rookies = mistakes. I like the way ours are developing, and some folks won’t. That makes for great discussions.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
story in the statistics
I’ve monitored the statistics of alternative selections and the story is that our rookies aren’t any different than the ones we passed up. The dearth of metrics also creates a problem with measuring success. Defensive tackle numbers are always higher for LB43s, almost without exception. The other problem is that poor defensive teams produce higher numbers. For instance, the New York Giants accumulated around 20 more tackles against us than we produced. The implication, when taken from an individual results perspective, is that they were much better than us. Bad team defense = high tackle numbers.
People rarely bother to check the statistical results in a systematic way that corrects for the cognitive biases that result from hearing anecdotal accounts of successes. Not every game is a success for these alternative draft picks but the successes become part of national media reports that we hear about. Bad games aren’t reported to us, unless we’re monitoring the local media markets of those players. The other cognitive bias is the cherry-picked player, who’s only one of many that were suggested as an alternative draft pick. The fact that one draftee exceeded expectations is unsurprising. Moreover, it’s often the case that that player wasn’t a high pick, so even the team that drafted him didn’t believe he was worth drafting earlier. We can lump all these types of comments into hindsight bias.
Re: the Quinn pick. The story in the C.S. Gazette that had us taking Quinn before Houston (who drafted #13(#77) to our slotted #15(#79) had a chance to is quite believable. The Texans went on to take Hill in the 4th, who was the next best available blocking TE.
We moved up to take Quinn because we would have lost him otherwise. Regardless of what one thinks of his value, we had to move or lose him. The terms (#64 & #132 for #79 & #84) weren’t unusual for the initiator of the trade.
no goats, no glory.
"Too high" draft picks
Whenever I hear people talk about someone being available later I think of the pick of Dwight Freeney by the Colts. When the pick was made (10 or 12 I believe) it was said he would have been available later and they should have traded down if they really wanted him. I think he looks like a bargain at that spot now.
great post
but i disagree at this point (only slightly, because some example does exist)
Quinn hasnāt demonstrated why we drafted him yet
on Moreno’s rushing TD against the Giants, Quinn made a solid block on the dge to open up a5 yard wide lane of the right tackle.
"I just looked across the huddle to see the guys in the huddle with me: great offensive line, great talent at wide receiver, great tight ends, great running backs. If we execute and play the way that we should, it should be tough to stop us."
-K.O.
by Jay Fin Anderson on Dec 5, 2009 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
Rey Maualuga, who is famed for playing out of control — i.e., without discipline — most patently does not fit our system. I’ll cop to chagrin about some of the other guys on that list, especially Cushing. But the hallmark of the Nolan system is discipline and flexibility. I don’t care how many effing awesome hits Maualuga lays, you can’t count on the guy to follow orders.
Made this Chiefer think of Bernard Pollard.
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
Thanks Dr. Smith and a question:
It sure seemed that during the four losses, not only did the front seven not maintain effective gap discipline, but the defensive play calling seemed to get far more conservative. I don’t think I was seeing the same level of internal line twists, slanting gap stunts between the front three and the LBs, overload blitzes, corner blitzes,etc. Is this just perception? Were they still running these things at the same rate but just not getting it done or did we go statistically more “vanilla”? I don’t really have time to go back and do this kind of analysis, so I’m curious as to what you saw. Thanks again for the combination of analysis time and clear presentation!
Go Broncs!
It's "just" football
That's not just perception to me, Donk
There were two factors that I caught, and thanks for stealing one of next week’s topics (grin). On the one hand – there was a lot more freelancing. That led to a lot of problems – we just aren’t talented enough to be able to play ‘schoolyard’ football and win. I’m not sure that any team is, to be honest. Keeping to the system, so the system will work, is one of the keys to the game. When guys are out of position, they make it possible for the opposing offense to exploit gaps that shouldn’t be there.
The other factor is what many have said: When Denver plays a more vanilla scheme, teams can put the Broncos back on their heels. Denver beats you by confusing you, getting you to employ the RB to block the wrong man, creating pressure and trusting the secondary. Bailey is seeing a lot more matchups that challenge him, and he’s winning the vast majority of them. So is Goodman, for that matter. The coverage in the Giant’s game was as good as any I’ve seen, and that was partly the Giants and partly solid play by the Broncos. The pass rush made sure that the coverage wasn’t exposed for too long, and that’s something the Broncos failed on during the losses.
I think that holding to the aggressive yet disciplined approach that we started the season with will be a factor in a lot of games. No QB in the league likes being pressured, even though it’s true that this year, Philip Rivers comes as close as anyone I’ve seen. Wayne Nunnely’s/Mike Nolan’s stunts and twists, constantly innovative, have to create enough pressure to make it possible for the coverage to stay tight. We didn’t do that in the losses and we did it well in the wins.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
And this just churns my innards LOL
“No QB in the league likes being pressured, even though itās true that this year, Philip Rivers comes as close as anyone Iāve seen. "
I hate it, but it’s true. He just makes freakin plays while under ridiculous amounts of pressure…I have to respect that. However I still think he’s a whiner. :O
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!! (April 2009 prediction)
Revised to 11-5 due to reality!
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
McDaniels was asked your question
His response was something like: It isn’t necessarily merely a matter of choosing whether or not to be aggressively blitzing. A big part of how you play the game is determined by the other team. If the quarterback takes a couple of steps back and fires the ball rapidly, blitzes are worthless as it does you no good to get to the quarterback if the ball is long gone.
Yes, good point
The three step drop is at times a quarterback’s best friend – you run the slant, smoke, out and hitch routes off of it and it can be hard to defend. If a team is throwing them well, you’ll have limited effectiveness at blitzing. That’s where the kind of coverage that I mentioned us having in the NYG game – zipped up tight – is essential. You’ll still have completions, but you can minimize the damage.
There can be an advantage to bringing pressure even in those situations, though. Consider this – if you overload blitz the (offensive) right side, bringing 2-3 bodies with their hands up and forcing the throw left, even though you don’t reach the QB you can improve the chances for the Will or jack LB to sit in the zone underneath and/or to jump the route, improving chances for a deflection or a INT. HT/Steve has noted many times that pressure is the DC;s best friend, even more so than sacks.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Thinks
sum gooder ritin ain’t ever been done how teh hill do yous do it ?
Just another guy...on the lost highway.
Scheffler
If, as I think you imply above, Scheffler’s blocking has gotten better (as seen in the NYG game), and Graham has been erratic, is there a time coming where we’ll see more Scheffler + Quinn (as blocker) and Graham the 3rd option (depending on whether they are using 2 TE sets or not, too)… I’m encouraged to see Scheffler improve in that arena, since we know he’s a terrific receiver already. Graham of course still contributes as a receiver too. Just curious.
Thanks for such a great analysis here, Emmett! By gum I think I learned something!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Outstanding work, Emmit
I’m not exaggerating when I say that I wholeheartedly agree with nearly everything you said.
Great work, and great job breaking it down for those of us who don’t have as much time to watch film. Look forward to next time!
Don't argue with fools. It's how they reproduce.
Is that all there is to it?
No amount of time would enable ME capable of providing such a deep and insightful analysis.
Sean
Maybe I’m misinterpreting, but I don’t think that was meant to be anything other than a compliment directed at Bear (Emmett). Then again, I’m one of those benefit of the doubt guys.
It's "just" football
I am pretty new here
So I may be wrong but in my reading here. warmick likes to stir the pot. A backhanded compliment to to Emmit is still a slap at TheMastermind.
If I am wrong, then I owe warmick an apology.
Opinions are like......, Well anyway, this is mine.
Flagged Sean in Pa?
The Mastermind states that he appreciates Emmett Smithās work because "he doesnāt have time to do it himself." I respond by suggesting that such great work requires more than just time, and you call that mean? Could it be you are just looking for an opportunity for pay back? In response to a post of mine a few days ago in which I stated that I did not frequent Mile High Report for the purpose of making friends, you responded with the following:
why are’nt you here to make friends? I canāt say that I am but I am not against it. Let us make friends, you and me⦠Letās be friends :-) Why not?
I thought that was a pretty shallow suggestion as friendship is not a concept to be entered into by agreement as if a contract was warranted but rather than telling you so, I chose to just ignore "the offer." I canāt help but wonder whether your latest action is a result of feeling like you have been slighted like a scorned lover. Is that the problem? You thought of yourself as having extended a hand "in friendship" only to be turned down by this "mean" guy and now you are getting back at me?
Haha
That post was the result of too much beer. I would like to be able to delete some of my posts but none the less, I will live with what I do.
I personally find you to be an instigator. You consistently find reasons to find fault with other posters logic. This last post here, well. I don’t care if you think it requires more than time. Your comment was mean, period. And that is what I think.
Opinions are like......, Well anyway, this is mine.
I disagree with you
but that will not cause me to flag your post. You have a lot of nerve flagging someone else though when you don’t even like you own submittals.
Yes
I do have a lot of nerve. Thanks for noticing.
Opinions are like......, Well anyway, this is mine.
Let me elaborate
1 post- 168 comments Those are your stats warmick. You say I have a lot of nerve but you have consistently brought your negative opinion to other posters. I say you have a lot of nerve giving negative feedback when you don’t put your own analysis out here.
I am sure that you (and I) enjoy reading this site for all the great information to be found. If you, warmick, don’t agree that is fine. Post an article that puts forth your thoughts. Don’t just argue with the posters you disagree with. C’mon man, man up and let’s hear what you think.
Opinions are like......, Well anyway, this is mine.
I'm sorry
I will be a good boy now and not fight.
Opinions are like......, Well anyway, this is mine.
Yeah, it's just a waste of energy anyway. :)
There is only One Momentāthis momentāthe Eternal Moment of Now
i'm not trying to be a jerk i'm just saying its kind of annoying when
you guys are fighting over something stupid
Good point
There are others here that do the same thing, and its good to know that I’m not the only one who thinks less of them.
And you are right to defend yourself. Some people just want to be jerks online because they can’t be jerks when people are around them.
"I got a ring, too. It says Love. Think about THAT."
"EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY!!!"
If someone says they don't have the insight to provide good analysis,
then saying they haven’t been providing that analysis (i.e. posts) doesn’t really refute their point.
I.E.:
“I am not that great a basketball player”
“Then why aren’t you in the NBA?”
Huh?
mean?
It sounds like he’s complimeneting Emmitt and mildly criticizing TheMastermind. He even points out no amount of time would make him able to give teh insights. As this would also be true for me (well, maybe if I had infinite time to study the game in depth I might come close) I can certainly see the point.
Meat and Potatoes...
Doc, you sure bring a lot to the table on this site!
I too dabbled in pacifism once...
by waltersobchakbronco on Dec 3, 2009 11:32 AM MST reply actions
More like Thanksgiving Dinner!
lol
"I got a ring, too. It says Love. Think about THAT."
"EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY!!!"
And I DO love stuffing
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
An excellent post, Em!
Thanks for all you do for us. Rec’d.
" May the bandwagon jumpers bark their shins!"
VERY nice article.
A few thoughts from a KC fan:
Giants line play has been generally below Giants standards this season. They haven’t been the same since Strahan retired a couple years back, imo, and they’ve really been struggling to get Brandon Jacobs going.
As to Denver O-Line, I was surprised at how they seemed to struggle during the losing streak. I attributed it to injuries that may or may not be keeping specific players off the field that we may or may not know about, in addition to your excellent run-down on specifics available.
Denver D-Line I thought was under-addressed in the offseason. While they’ve overperformed (relative to my predictions), Denver has had the luxury of single-covering a LOT, and sending their LBs up the field AT WILL. So even when they DO drop 7 or 8 in coverage, opposing O-Lines don’t necessarily have a handle on the 3 or 4 that Denver does send. So they’re more stout up front than they have a right to be because they’re stronger in the secondary than, by law, congress allows. ;o) Keep Dawkins and Bailey healthy. Adding Ty Law was a big plus, but he doesn’t have the same closing speed that put him in the Pro Bowl. It seemed to me he was more than fast (and wily and tough) enough to give Hines Ward problems versus PIT.
Big part of PIT’s struggles against KC was a slowly improving KC O-Line and a RB who can test the edges and turn the corner. Jamaal Charles is pretty much a rookie in terms of touches. Reminds me a lot of Marcus Allen (who was also known for putting the ball on the ground as a rookie).
PIT’s O-Line is still not very good, and KC’s combo of STOUT in the front 3 and an aggressive blitz scheme (SS Mike Brown is much more dangerous harassing QBs than running with WRs down the field).
PIT’s had trouble beating the blitz with the pass overtop. When Denver’s O was struggling, that’s been their problem, too. Giants sending 4 a lot (to help their banged-up secondary) gave Denver some real breathing room. Like KC, against blitz-happy D’s with solid DBs, Denver only had short, quick stuff underneath, on which routes DBs could sit on. Don’t expect Orton to have to settle for underneath stuff all day long against KC. Against SD last week, they were so afraid of what the WRs could do to them that they kept 7 back in zone and were ripped to shreds by Rivers. KC still struggling to get consistent pressure out of the 4-man rush, and, last week at least, lacking in courage to pin their ears back and send more hats.
Denver should be able to run a lot of cover-0 or cover-1. Not enough to fear (yet) from KC’s WRs to worry about dropping 7 or 8 in coverage all day. Go ahead and blitz ‘em all day long. (Regardless, I’d blitz all day long every day unto eternity, so take this with a grain of salt).
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
Thanks for your thoughts
And I’m glad that you took a little time to stop by and share your thoughts.
A couple of things to consider:
1. We keep hearing that Denver didn’t do enough with regard to the DL, and to be honest, I don’t get that at all. Kenny Petersen played well in the abortive 3-4 experiments of 2008 as did M. Thomas. McBean was from the PIT PS and he’s been a stud for us. We brought in Fields, Holliday, Le Kevin Smith and Chris Baker (who is on our PS this season, looks like he’ll be successful). So, of the 6 rotational players that we use, only Petersen and M. Thomas were on the DL last season. Both have played well. Probably our best off-season DL pickup was Coach Wayne Nunnely, late of SD. His work on stunts and twists is famous around NFL circles, and rightfully so. The outcome is exactly what you’ve described – hard to predict, hard to stop.
2. Interesting thoughts on cover-1 and cover-0. I don’t expect to see a lot of cover-0, especially with Chambers stepping up for you. Maybe more cover-1, with Dawk in a ‘robber’ alignment underneath? Even then, what Nolan has been doing has been to use Hill and Dawk interchangeably and that’s created problems for other teams when we are winning. Both are excellent safeties and Hill used to be a cornerback; his skillset gives us great flexibility.
3. Ironically, I spent part of this morning breaking down film from the PIT/KC game and I agree with most of your comments on that. There was the fact that PIT played uncharacteristically sloppy, from that first K/O return for a TD to Big Ben’s play to the defense, but that doesn’t and shouldn’t take anything away from the play of KC that iced the victory. Congrats on that one – and I look forward to this weekend’s contest. Good luck!
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Nod.
Yeppers. I think my take on Denver’s D-Line was based mostly on the draft. I STILL think they might be a little undersized for a 3-4’s front 3, but their ability to really mix things up with good-to-great coverage skills across the board, makes it really tough for offenses to make predictions off of pre-snap formations. Even when Denver’s sending 3 or 4, offenses are still worried about the blitz, with some guys missing their blocks and others just blocking air where they fear someone MIGHT be rushing the passer.
This is a big weakness of the Chiefs’ D, because lack of coverage skills (speed, especially) at S gives too much away. If they play ballsy and come up and jam, with McGraw and Brown lurking up near the line, they can do some things with pressure that negate their down-the-field weaknesses. Orton’s pretty good at quick release, though, and I’d expect they can beat the blitz by going down the field, if the Chiefs come after ‘em. I also think Denver’s WRs bring more to the field than PIT’s.
Also, KC’s been miserable (imo) about jamming at the line. So afraid of being burned down field, they give cushion, rather than smacking eligibles at the line. KC’s best chance of strong defense is a high-risk, highly physical style of play that they don’t seem to have the guts to run. Last week against San Diego, I thought Gunther Cunningham was calling the defense, with very little blitz and very soft coverage off the blitz.
Chambers is better than anybody KC’s had all year. Definitely a playmaker who, with little Lance Long, is capable of stretching the field more than KC has been able to do since before Tony Gonzalez was traded. Probably the last close-to-dominant downfield threat the Chiefs had was your old castoff, Eddie Kennison (TG was/is great, but isn’t a field-stretching speed threat, nor is Dwayne Bowe, whom you guys won’t face this Sunday, anyway).
PIT was on a very short week, after an overtime game. Plus they’re not the greatest up front on O-Line this year (or last), and KC’s D-Line matches up well, with a serious amount of stout in their 3 starting d-linemen (although they’ll be better if they add a true NT or – wild idea – draft Suh and switch to 4-3, moving Dorsey back to DT).
While it’s hard for DC’s to weather the fallout from giving up a lot of big plays, I think KC SHOULD roll the dice, and be willing to trade big plays with offenses. Go for the 3-and-out. If they don’t, then they will die the death by a thousand cuts that they’ve been dying from since Cunningham had ‘em playing passively to protect HIS secondary from being exposed too often. I don’t think you help your weak secondary by giving them help down the field. You give them help by getting better pressure up front.
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
Oh yeah. Almost forgot.
You guys are really rude and stuff like that that.
Smack, trash, a little more smack.
Go Chiefs!
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
Does it seem to you
that Chambers is one of those change of scenery guys? It looked like he was just getting old in San Diego, but he goes to a new team and is instantly a playmaker again. It is odd, since these “change of scenery” moves are generally someone like Braylon Edwards leaving a Cleveland team devoid of talent to go to a more competitive team and revitalizing his career (see also Randy Moss leaving Oakland—although I have little respect for Moss’ effort playing for bad teams).
Instead, with Chambers, he left the now division-leading Chargers to head to a “rebuilding” team and that has seemed to breathe new life into him. Does it appear that he has become a leader to your offense or team in general? I think it was a pretty savvy move picking him up, very little to lose and much to gain from it.
Jason
The Hanging Curve
He did the same thing when traded from Miami to San Diego
He was becoming a 1-trick pony in Miami, only making acrobatic catches on deep balls, like a slightly better Ashley Lelie. Then he went to San Diego and did great for a few games, slowly fading over the years.
It seems that you are probably right about him.
Closest thing to a dominant all-around WR the Chiefs have.
Very very good player. But had his chance to be a dominant player and fell just a whisker short of the mark. As the best of a not-great bunch, he gets more targets and enjoys more success. SD wanted something a whisker better, in order to contend, and it appears they found such.
It’ll be interesting to see the last couple games, when Bowe will be back in the lineup. I suspect that Chambers is about as successful as he’s likely to get, with pesky and quick Lance Long, Bobby Wade, and even the inconsistent (but fast) Bradley and Lawrence. Chiefs look more dominant on paper with Chambers and Bowe, together, but I think the field’s a little shorter with the two of them.
Right now, Chambers looks like a more finished possession receiver than D-Bowe, and BOTH will prosper the most with more speed at the complementary positions than either one of them provides for the other. Chambers is just a whisker from being THE down-the-field threat, and is often mistaken for such. San Diego’s offense is clearly more explosive with the current cast than the one that included Chambers.
So, in my view, the end result is likely to be just as you speculate it might.
I could be (and usually am) WAY off the mark, but we have two Denver-KC games to compare and contrast KC with Chambers with and without D-Bowe, assuming D-Bowe gets right back on the field from his banned substance suspension for the 2nd and last meeting at Mile High.
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
Nice reply
Thanks for weighting in on this…I was watching Chambers a lot in SD (I live in Carlsbad, just up the road in north SD county) and I actually like him a lot. His height creates some problems but at the same time, he’s been inconsistent for years and that will seriously irritate a lot of folks in the NFL coaching biz. It did, and welcome to KC, Mr. C.
He and Bowe may be a nice combo. With Cassel stepping up and another offseason to improve that O-line, those fellows could be the start of a decent offense. Considering Charles’ skillset, it could go very well. Not Moss/Welker very well, but a nice start.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Great job!
Thanks for the awesome post. Also thanks for taking a minute to talk about the rookies. I’m getting tired of hearing “where are the rookies”. The fact of the matter is, it is a good sign (for the most part) when our rookies aren’t starting. It means that the players we brought in to start are doing their job well. Most teams that are relying on more than one or two rookies to come in and start for them are likely to be let down. Rookies have growing pains, and getting them acclimated slowly is generally the best course of action. Moreno is the leading rookie rusher. Bruton and McBath have been beasts at special teams. If you haven’t noticed Quinn’s sweet work, you simply aren’t watching the trenches. Smith and Ayers have probably had the toughest go, but they also happen to be playing some pretty tough positions, positions where we are pretty strong already. I think the rooks are by and large doing great.
Also, I liked seeing you throw props at Scheffler. During the Giants game, every time the announcer mentioned Scheffy (those NFLN announcers were pretty poor IMO) they kept saying “he’s a great pass catcher but really needs to work on his blocking” and then he would proceed to manhandle a Giant on the backside or help pave the way for Moreno to grab 10 yards. It’s been my belief that Scheffler has been needlessly maligned for his blocking, which has been quite good the last couple years—especially this year now that he is being asked to do it a lot more.
Jason
The Hanging Curve
Once the media gets an idea, they don't let go
You see this at all levels. When I’m researching draft picks, one thing that I notice is that comments from freshman and sophomore year, mistakes that were made but which have been resolved, are still spoken of as if that’s current info. With Scheff, I talked last season about how he’s stepped up and is blocking better and he has continued that to this year but it has escaped the general attention.
I’m seeing a lot more good things from A. Smith than some are. His tackling, his skill against the run and his increasing skills in NFL-level coverage schemes all speak of a long, solid career to come
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
It's intellectual laziness.
I’ve seen it happen on ArrowheadPride a few times, too, where one toss-off remark in April somehow lodges in the collective subconscious and becomes a known fact that others know they can use without being questioned.
One good thing about Pioli in KC is that his staff and he don’t go by what a guy looked like a year ago or even last month. It’s how he’s doing in practice NOW and how he’s producing in games NOW that matter. A number of players have seen their stock rise/fall in surprising ways to those who aren’t paying attention every day. Your comment is very well taken.
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
Bright future
3 years from now I bet KC is the team nipping at the Bronco’s heals for the division lead. They seem to be competetive against very good opponents (at least in parts of the game) and once they get it all together should be pretty solid.
In further defense of Smith
I know, my homer heart rarely spews anything but rainbows and lollipops with it comes to the Broncos. I have no illusions of pure analytical objectivity to hang my hat on, in other words. But not only do I agree there have been tangible signs of Smith’s progress on the field, but I’ve also stumbled across more defendable territory for the kid (Perhaps the A.S critics might say another ‘rationalization’). The fact is, winning time in the Broncos secondary is a tough nut to crack. There is no dishonor in playing behind the likes of Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, and Ty Law.
I’ve actually been quite amazed at how well his play matches up to his pre-draft scouting reports, all the way down to my one concern about him: he seems to be a very good and willing tackler, when he wants to be. Sometimes he doesn’t seem to want to stick his nose in there, but my orange heart blames that on him still learning to be a pro. A lot of rookies struggle with consistent effort. They forget that they aren’t twice as good as almost everybody on the field through pure talent alone. That’ll come under this coaching staff and the tutelage considerably resumed mentors.
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 3, 2009 3:10 PM MST up reply actions
Man, if I could just do one post without a boneheaded typo or mistake...
“..tutelage of his considerably resumed mentors”, I meant.
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 3, 2009 3:13 PM MST up reply actions
Well, they did resume
They took off in the offseason and resumed for OTAs…lol. I agree with you – Smith for the most part has done as well as you’d expect from his predraft reports. And when he decides to tackle, he’s very good at it.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Now that's irony.
Fixing one type and totally missing the other. DOH!!!
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 3, 2009 3:49 PM MST up reply actions
Is "resumed" a transitive verb?
Are you trying to use French on us?
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
Very insightful
Thanks for an excellent post. I have only one observation to add: Knowshown may well have had at least two 100 yard games were it not for holding penalties that wiped out significant gains. The Broncos are laying the foundation for a top to bottom high quality year-to-year contender. Thank you for solidifying the picture of how and who play a role in its creation.
This is a lot to take in and I will comment on each section as I read. Thanks so much bear and received!
I have watched Graham too and also have noticed what you saw. He is there on some plays and then slacks off on another. The 2 running plays where he was called for holding were uncalled for on his part, because the hold mostly occurred after the runner was past him. All he had to do was let go instead of the “judo-takedown” move he put on the defender. All it did was negate 2 beautiful runs by Moreno and Buckhalter. I hope Graham and Barrone can get this resolved.
Great write, Great read, thanks for all your time and insight
A couple of questions, though. How do you see the left side OL doing in run blocking assignments? We all know Clady can protect, what do you see in his run blocking? And, do you foresee any 3 TE sets, and do we, because of personnel, have a big advantage with that? I, for one, would like to see us run more, pass less. Not because of a deficiency in passing, but time control.
Give a man a fish, and he'll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat for a lifetime.
"Losing stinks" - Josh McDaniels
Good questions, az
I’ve always been inclined towards the 3 TE sets, but I see them as a nice way to disguise passes as much as running. So far, we’ve usually used it for power running (with a couple of nice exceptions in the red zone, earlier in the season). We also used Hochstein as a FB, but Larsen is doing a much better job at that slot. Of course, you can run the formation either way.
Personnel – I think that w might use it a little more once Quinn develops, but that might just be my own preferences coming out. I expect to see it at times in short yardage. Done well, it’s very hard to stop, but like the Wild Horses, I expect to see McD use it only in a limited way. The playbook is thick and very complex – these are sort of ‘trickeration’ and I don’t think that McD is going to consider that for a major role. I hope that I’m wrong with that, but time will tell. It’s a very good question – nice one.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
I like "powering-up," too. I'd do it just to see if the D could match up, and if not, just ram it down their throats.
And using it like a bunch WR formation is a cool variation. I like the way you think.
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
We've got a series of articles on the 'Magic 3' option, as the 3 TE set can be called
Hoosierteacher, also known as Steve Nichols, also known as ‘The Professor’ (and for good reason, if we do brag so ourselves….) wrote the first entry. I tossed in one on some of the options prior to the offseason – I’d substitute Moreno for Hillis and use Larsen at FB, but the other players are similar. the theory works with our current offense. Doug and I also talked about some considerations for this when we wrote up a series on McDaniels coaching background and propensities, and that one came closer to being accurate than I could have asked for.
What I love about this formation is the fact that you can’t tell if it’s a run or a pass as they line up. You can do either, and in several ways. It’s tough to defend, if done right. I hope you enjoy the three links.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
I have noticed the failures in our OLine too.
I wouldn’t feel bad at all if McD picked a couple of big Guards/Center in the draft or free agency. Hamilton hasn’t been the same since being injured (sound familiar Simms?) and he may never recover.
Thank you, Mr. Smith.
It is a long read and not one word is superfluous. I love that kind of article.
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
Heh. Judo take-down.
I thought I was the only guy who ever noticed that. I always thought that was Tony Gonzalez’s favorite method of blocking, too. Always trying to find cases where I could say “See? He blocks!” and always seeing his hands outside the pads whenever he tried to block. Amazing how rarely it would be called. It’s kind of a gimme penalty that you’d only see flagged off a big play by some other KC player. Tony would get a sheepish grin and everyone would forgive him, because we all know he’s going to the HOF, despite never winning a championship. My friends would all point to his stats and I’d point to the holding penalty that cost them the game winning drive…
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
Thank you
Just wanted to say thank you for the awesome post. I can’t believe the level of effort you guys put into this, and it is very very much worth it. Kudos!
The Donkeys are DONE!!!!!!!
Hey there kids, hope all is well where the air is as thin as your chances to win the AFC West….I mean at lease this year you didn’t lose 4 straight games, oh wait you already did that, well at least the losing streak didn’t affect your chances to win the division, ouch I guess it kinda did. Denver will always be second best to the Mighty Bolts as long as you have a classless joke coaching. Can’t stop won’t stop 6 straight and aint a thing you can do…..Hi haters :)
.....
Does it bother any of you that MickeyD still referring to the Patriots in the “we” form….that commitment I want from my coach…. Grow up, be a man, and admit you got caught talking s***
No, it bothers me when teenagers come over here and talk smack with their betters,
like they are fit to have a conversation with adults. Go back and taunt your grade school buddies and quit trolling a respectable site.
by NDbronco on Dec 3, 2009 5:50 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Consistent.
As in— its amazing how a team and its fans tend to adopt the same traits.
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 3, 2009 5:52 PM MST up reply actions
Funny
that he/she/it appears after we’ve had a nice interaction with our guest from Arrowhead Pride, who has been nothing but classy, thoughtful and honest and so forth, then we are greeted by another Charger fan who is anything but. Maybe it’s easier to be a smacktalking fan when your team is doing well again, but well the juxtaposition is striking.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
by underdog on Dec 3, 2009 5:56 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep
Class, or in the case of the dolts, lack thereof, starts at the top.
Classless morons thru and thru, from owner to players to fans.
by AllBroncsallday on Dec 4, 2009 3:16 PM MST up reply actions
Yawn.
Maybe you Dolt fans can regale us with all those tails about the glory of the 2006 team and their deep playoff run that culminated in the most talented team in the NFL losing their 1st playoff game at home.
How was it watching the Colts, the only good team the Dolts seem to beat, win the whole thing the one season your team had all the stars align only to piss it away at home to the Pats.
Was that lose as fun for you as it was for me?
This is my favorite website.
A la Patrick Roy - nicely played, Chibronx :-)
"Take what you can. Give nothing back!"
by Colorado_Kitten on Dec 4, 2009 8:58 AM MST up reply actions
Flagged for being a Charger fan
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
Nothing like a visit from the clueless and classless
Always reminds me why I enjoy MHR so much.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
No kidding
Know what sucks about coming over to talk smack like SD32? If there is an epic collapse to the dolts (and it wouldn’t even require an epic collapse…just one loss), and they don’t win the division, or better yet, they go on a five game losing streak starting this week (that would be awesome), we get the opportunity to laugh last and best. I would have waited to taunt until the Dolts at ;east won the division rather than when they have a one game lead, but when you are twelve like this loser guy, it’s hard to wait more than a week.
An epic collapse...
…it is having nothing to show for the immense talent that has occupied those uniforms the last five years. Its a character thing, I guess.
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 3, 2009 5:55 PM MST up reply actions
right, I should have said "another" epic collapse
These guys have been picked to win the superbowl for the past 5 years.
Excellent Analysis, Bear and Rec'd
Thank you for the many hours you spent breaking down film. At least you got to enjoy some of it.
Now I understand why McD has had his blood boil with our O-line as of late. I sincerely hope that Hochstein and Polumbus can keep their good play going from the Giants game. I’m fine with Harris sitting this one out to ensure that he’s healthy for Indy. It does sound like McD hopes he’ll play against KC though.
When it comes to blocking for our running game, I admit I am surprised about Daniel Graham’s performance. If Richard Quinn becomes a good, consistent blocker, then his selection in the draft will be justified.
Also, I am disappointed in the defense’s lack of focus and discipline during those four losses. I remember in the game against Pittsburgh, that Mendenhall took advantage of a lot of real estate off his right tackle, thanks to our guys completely vacating that side of the field. I must have seen at least three sweep right running plays going for 1st downs and it drove me nuts.
Lastly, our special teams at least improved in the punting, kicking, and coverage aspects of their game. Now if they can only talk to each other during trick plays…
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
They ripped off some good ones against my Chiefs, as well, but one difference seems to be stoutness at LDE.
Those plays are more difficult to execute against Tyson Jackson. Just my take, but I think it’s all about the stout. Chiefs give up OTHER things on a more regular basis than the Broncs.
I suspect that the issue with Denver in the losses is off of known (and possibly not generally known) injuries (and growing pains?) on the offensive line. Maybe your big men wore down more as a result?
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
Could be
We essentially had three issues: First, Ben Hamilton hasn’t been quite the same since his concussion. I’m not claiming to know if the two facts are connected, but that was the time line. Second, Casey Wiegmann hasn’t had quite the same season as last year either, whether due to age or other considerations. Third, Ryan Harris’ injury led to Tyler Polumbus playing and we also had Hochstein replacing Hamilton. Those three things were in abeyance, though, against the Giants. Perhaps they put it together, maybe the G’s had a bad day, but the group looked like all-stars on Thanksgiving. If that’s the group that shows up in KC, the Broncos will play well.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Complain to the world
or maybe just CBS for being stupid like that……..is he announcing our game this week
Tell me about it
I think I would rather listen to Dan Dierdork, and I can’t stand him!
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
Tom Jackson and Dan Fouts
How amusing would it be to have those two homers calling the game between Denver and San Diego. TJ’s an analyst, I know, but I think he could fill the “Captain Obvious” role even better than Madden himself.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
Fouts yes, but.
Did we already forget Rich Gannon’s gagatorial comments on our play by play?
by WYO(MF)BRONCOBOY on Dec 4, 2009 9:31 AM MST up reply actions
Fouts exudes disdain for Denver.
Which would normally offend my sensibilities— the lack of professionalism— but I find it comical in a smug sort of way. The SD wide antipathy for Denver is rooted in one team having a long history of being truly relevant and another demanding relevance with their mouths rather than meaningful results. Fouts the player was actually more mouthy and less classy than Rivers— and he was symbolic of what the Chargers have become— pretty on paper but never able to translate it into a meaningful legacy. It burns him, apparently.
by PredominantlyOrange on Dec 4, 2009 9:45 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah really
And having him call the Dolts- Broncos game? Are you kidding me?
by AllBroncsallday on Dec 4, 2009 3:18 PM MST up reply actions
We Chiefs fans have suffered under the same burden.
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
Outstanding post, Doc. I have copied it to my email for future references. Rec'd!!
You held my rapt attention throughout. The only timeout was to enjoy some salmon with my wife. Cooked to perfection on a George Foreman grill served with horseradish. 2 Salmon to you for this post!!
Sports Weekly shows us getting Dick Enberg and Dan Fouts on Sunday. Nantz and Simms (the other one) are listed for the NE/Mia game – but that doesn’t seem right as they play at night on NBC. Guess we’ll see at game time. Hoping for the N&S team.
The Bolts have 3 games coming up that will determine if they go forward or go home for the postseason: Dallas, Cincy & TEN. They could lose all 3 and could easily lose 2/3.
Really enjoyed your analysis ES. Thanks for taking the time to study and looking for that which becomes apparent afterward. I totally agree with you about Orton. He was one of the many great pickups of the offseason. I have watched him for a long time and was disappointed how he was used in Chicago. He is only going to get better.
Thanks again. If our guys bring their A game the rest of the season, they will be in the postseason. Go Broncos!!
If the Denver Post regularly included such great articles, I would still subscribe
There is nothing better than to read MHR in the morning with a cup of tea in hand. This present article is outstanding and full of interesting content. Woody Paige and Kizla at the DP should be shaking in their boots when they read it.
O-line woes
Being Offensive
Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos’ decline on offense. I’d like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. … .
I wanted to add a point that I’ve omitted on this subject.
I’ve advocated drafting some help for the OL (starting in the 2nd, ideally), but there’s a divergence of opinion on this — as is often the case.
Firstly, I wanted to reiterate a point that I’ve made frequently in the past. Players drafted in the upcoming draft are not — for the most part — expected to contribute immediately. High picks, such as the 1st or 2nd round picks, may be able to make significant contributions early in their career, but most picks will not and it’s unreasonable to expect more from them.
My point, then, is that the reason for drafting an OL is for the future. As is the case with many positions, which I’ve argued above, OLs take time to develop, and the projected time for these draftees’ contribution is still several years away.
Teams normally draft OLs on a regular basis and groom them for future needs. Approximately 23% of native positions are on the OL so it’s a frequently drafted position. Also, because of their relative prevalence, it’s more likely that the BPA will be an OL.
The interval between the time they’re drafted and their expected contribution is shorter for higher picks and this is part of the calculation behind their selection. The currently projected time window is shorter than when they’ll be needed so I’ve advocated taking an OL high to shorten this in addition to acquiring a FA because of the uncertainty of our being able to replace departing OLs in time.
The Broncos have drafted a number of OLs in recent years but, for various reasons, our cupboard is now somewhat bare in terms of OLs in the development stage. I won’t try to list all these departed players, but Myers (now with Houston) is a good example of an OL who was brought in and is now with another team. Another example would be Lichtensteiger, who was expected to play a significant role but didn’t. Note that there are a number of these examples, which shows that the staff agrees with the logic here but failed to achieve their goal. Some of those developmental players (not to be confused with ‘projects’) wouldn’t have become adequate starters so their loss isn’t important by itself, although not having any developmental players is, however.
Even when developmental players (DPs) don’t project as future starters, they provide a bulwark of (partly) experienced depth to the team, which protects the team from the effect of injuries. Our current roster contains only one DP of note — Seth Olsen, and his progress at this point is unknown. Polumbus could also be considered as a DP, but his role with the team projects solely as a backup. Therefore, he’s not truly a DP in the sense of a potential future starter.
Given what I’ve said, we’re really quite undermanned from a multi-year planning perspective. Additionally, it should be added that the ideal roster number target for the OL is smaller than other positions. I mention this because it often impacts the decision on who is kept on the roster. Versatility is always in demand for OLs, because it allows teams to cover the position and keep players elsewhere on the roster.
We currently carry 9 OLs. One of them, Hamilton, will not be with the team next year, IMO. Wiegmann also has a limited future, even though he earned a pro bowl slot only last year. He still has some value to the team but he’s not part of long-term planning. Gorin is only an emergency backup and his presence on the roster is attributable to his experience and our lack of depth at the OT position. Hochstein is also useful but — apparently — not part of our long-term plans.
Given what I’ve argued, it seems quite clear that we’re in need of an infusion of players on the OL. The positive side of the story is that we’re in very good shape at 3 of the OL starter positions — LT, RT and RG; Clady, Harris and Kuper. The upcoming draft is not overly strong (at this point, pending declarees) but that’s missing the point. We’re not actually looking for an immediate starter and we’re also overdue as far as bringing in DPs (because of the losses at that position). One highly ranked OL could settle the situation in the interior-OL. I’ve also suggested that a RT/RT type could help us by settling the RT backup position in addition to settling one OG starter position. This could also be in addition to one OG/OC type of draftee. Here’s the suggestion in graphical form:
]——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-]
( qty: 1 ) OC/OG (high round, ~2nd)
(qty: 1 ) RT/RG (fairly high, ~3rd-4th)
(qty: 1 ) OG/OC FA (quality is contingent, I’ve advocated high if possible but it can be a lesser talented although proficient FA if affordability is an issue).
]——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-]
Finally, another part of the logic for adding an OL is to allow the OL to complete the transition to the McDaniels scheme, which uses pulling OGs with much greater frequency than we have in the past. Finding personnel that better fit our new scheme would make great sense. I’ve reevaluated my opinion on the OL. Some people will frame changes in that area as losing our ZB tendencies (which isn’t true), but I see it as an opportunity to create a stronger OL that can compete against some of the massive DLs of opponents. It should be noted that 3 of our losses came against 3-4 defenses (which create difficulties for OLs) and the 4th came against a fairly talented Washington DL. Our ZB tailored OL was adept at running on many teams but we floundered against physical teams. The point is to add to what we’re capable of doing without abandoning ZB (which we won’t do, even though hyperbolic comments often frame it that way). One dividend in getting bigger on the OL is that it should increase our RZ success. Another dividend is that it will strengthen our running game, which will also preserve Moreno’s talents. The last and perhaps most obvious dividend is that we’ll be equipped to compete against some of the most talented and physical teams in the NFL, who also happen to use 3-4 schemes.
no goats, no glory.
Thanks for the great comment, Colinski
Our ZB tailored OL was adept at running on many teams but we floundered against physical teams. The point is to add to what weāre capable of doing without abandoning ZB (which we wonāt do,
I’d like to take a slightly different approach here. I think that we will continue to play ZB, just as many teams do (although we will do it better, IMO). However, it’s been my feeling that McD wants to reduce the emphasis on ZB and to move more to man and ‘regular’ blocking with more of an emphasis on physicality.
I think that one big reason that we’ve lost to the more physical defenses was simply been that this season, our O-line is neither fish nor fowl. We don’t have the size yet for the kind of blocking that McD would like to, and we’ve struggled with the new scheme. One thing that stood out to me on film was that we did ZB most of the NYG game and they had not answer for our player’s skill in the system. I expect us to draft larger players when possible, keeping in mind that even the ‘regular’ blocking uses a pulling guard approach, so nimble feet are still essential. Once we’re established on how much of our blocking is coming from what scheme and our personnel is appropriate for that grouping, I believe that we will do somewhat less ZB again.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
rebuilding a boat mid-river
My re-evaluated stance was a conclusion that we’re a one-trick pony when it comes to the OL. I’m not an ‘Xs and Os" guy so I try not to overstate my points but it seemed obvious that we’re ill-equipped to deal with interior overloads (zone blitzes, etc.). And we’re smaller than all other teams, so adding some strength & size seemed like the obvious solution. The point was to shore up a weakness rather than discontinuing ZB (or greatly reducing it’s use).
I’m still looking for ‘nimble’ types in the draft but the idea is to go a little bigger than in the past. The somatotype I’ve targeted isn’t road grater but he isn’t quite the undersized ZB type either. If anything, the emphasis was on more talent and less reliance of finding players whose abilities suited ZB exclusively. My feeling is that we’ve overspecialized, not that ZB should be deemphasized.
no goats, no glory.
Yes, we agree
Age, in Wiegmann’s case, and loss of technique from whatever cause in Hamilton’s have created an unexpected issue. I think back to watching Wiegmann handling Kris Jenkins last season and I’m surprised at how quickly that loss of ability seems to have developed, but that’s football. As far as what we’re looking at down the road, we’re in agreement. We will keep ZB but move to larger players who can also power block as well as gap block.
It was encouraging, though to watch the ZB work against NYG and to see how well they pulled it off. Clearly, Dennison’s work continues to be top rate. If we can gain some more appropriate players for the new system I think that we’ll be fine.
I seem to recall you pointing out one center in particular that you felt would make a reasonable FA pickup in the upcoming offseason – do you recall who you were mentioning?
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
FA Logan Mankins
I really don’t know the FA OLs well enough to evaluate ‘who all’ would meet our needs but the most obvious prospect is Patriot LOGAN MANKINS.
Familiarity is a plus — of course — but New England might be unwilling to pay him given their financial postions and, perhaps, the presence of younger talent and draft picks by which they could replace him.
http://www.footballsfuture.com/2010/fa/ol.html
Logan Mankins, New England Patriots (27)
Logan Mankins has been a very consistent player for the Patriots since he was drafted. That type of consistency is difficult to match, but with free agency inflating the value of offensive guards, the Patriots may end up letting him walk if the price isnāt right. They drafted a couple interior linemen last year and have to use some of their free money to re-sign other players. From what Mankins has said, he wants to stay on this winning franchise, but he could be one of the top players
available next offseason.
His size, experience and position (a Center coming out of college) all work within the criteria I’ve stated. His base salary for 2009 is 1.4 million but I’m checking for information, which is hard to find. He’s still in the last year of his original contract (no re-signing appears on the net) so it’s a crossroads as far as his salary negotiation. It’s the type of situation where New England could be moved to cut ties if his demands exceed their budget. And his past relationship with McDaniels may sway him to us.
no goats, no glory.
+1
I like the idea of the experienced center. Wiegman was a great pickup last year, though I’d like to not go quite that old.
As for the draft, there’s a kid outa Notre Dame I really like, Chris Stewart. He’s listed at 6’5", 330 lbs and he is big, but he moves really well. He can pull with the best of them. He reminds of the guy from Pittsburgh, Komeuato or whatever. Plus, coming from ND and Charlie Weis’ system, there would be a comfort level there from the get-go. I don’t know how high good guards go in the draft, but I’d be willing to see Denver go with a first-day pick on him (2nd or 3rd rd).
Hang on folks, road's a little bumpy in these spots.
You can't have him
Arrowhead Pride claimed dibs in the Fanposts last month, and Scott Pioli outranks McDaniels in the Parcells tree.
Funny we talk about the same players now, huh?
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
Mankins' availability
I should have also added that his availability depends on there being a new CBA in place — which appears doubtful.
http://www.askthecommish.com/forum/tm.asp?m=139864
-If a new agreement isn’t reached, the years of service to become an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) moves from 4 to 6. This means that players will less than 6 years of service entering into free agency are considered Restricted Free Agents (RFA).
With the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire if no new deal is reached by March, players in their fourth or fifth season who normally would have been able to hit the market as unrestricted free agents now would be restricted free agents, far less able to command money on the open market.
Mankins would be much harder to acquire, since we’d have to compensate New England, but the availability of FAs with slightly longer (6 accrued seasons) tenures would be unaffected.
Also — our important FAs also fall under the uncapped rules, so we may gain in the process.
Potential UFAs: P Mitch Berger, OT Brandon Gorin, OLB Nick Greisen, OG Ben Hamilton, OG Ross Hochstein, CB Ty Law, WR Brandon Lloyd.
Potential RFAs: OLB Elvis Dumervil*, OG Chris Kuper*, WR Brandon Marshall*, QB Kyle Orton*, TE Tony Scheffler*, DT LeKevin Smith*.
"-Players who have an asterisk (*) following their names are fourth- or fifth-year players who would be unrestricted free agents if a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached prior to March. If not, the NFL will go into an uncapped season, and those players will become restricted free agents. All RFAs are free to sign with other teams, but their movement is somewhat limited, as their current team generally has a chance to match any offer from another team or receive compensation if they leave. – "
no goats, no glory.
Don't use your success against a currently struggling NYG defense as your benchmark for O-Line.
They’re not dominant up front, any more.
As for the overloads of which Colinski speaks, it’s always good to be better at protections, but some of that falls on the QB-Receivers to be on the same page and execute the hot route at a higher level. The biggest issue might be recognition breakdowns by the wideouts (and other eligibles) and failure to execute by the QB, although I must say that Orton appears to keep a pretty clear head.
"Ow! Ya broke my tooth!"
"Colt makes a heavy firearm. That's a fact."
I'll disagree
The reason is that this group of players was carefully designed, drafted/acquired and trained for the express purpose of running one of the best ZB schemes in the league, as taught by Rick Dennison. During the early games and the losing streak, McD/McCoy tried to run a lot of gap blocking and some power blocking, more than the ZB. Against NYG, they went back to the ZB scheme.
Sure, I’ll be the first to say that the G’s D line didn’t threaten. Their front 7 wasn’t close to who they’ve been. At the same time, the difference that I spotted on film is that the players who were developed for the ZB scheme were given a whole bunch of ZB running player. Moreno also stepped up and had his best game yet. You cant really put the fact that our guys executed their assignments solely on the NY side – that’s not really what happened. They carried out their assignments very well, which they had not been doing. They got back to much more of the running that the Broncos have had such success with, and the outcome was very favorable.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
Outstanding read Bear!
and the comments from the Classy Chiefs fan and Lomardi Trophy deprived Chargers fan are great fun as well.
Do you guys think that Scheffler will ever get the opportunity to reproduce what he did in the SD game….I mean, when given the opportunity to actually receive, he really steps up. I saw a bit in the NYG game, and I certainly am thinking this weeks matchup should be a feeding frenzy for Scheff…Does Coach really just have a thing about TE’s as receivers?
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!! (April 2009 prediction)
Revised to 11-5 due to reality!
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
To quote Doc
Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things – a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn’t happen was that the blocking wasn’t good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.
So, we will see Scheffler once the offensive line can show McD that they can protect the QB. Once Orton is safe, McD will go less conservative, allowing Scheffler and Graham can break out into routes and catch some passes.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Dec 4, 2009 6:33 PM MST up reply actions
Back in 2004-5, McD had tight ends
who picked up quite a few carries. He also had a fullback – Patrick Pass – who averaged 25 receptions a year. They had Ben Watson and Dan Graham at TE – Daniel had 15 rec and Watson 29. After that, they lessened the impact of the position, although their TEs were very active, as are ours.
Point is, I don’t think that McD is completely sold on the approach that many of us would like to see – Scheff with a bigger piece of the offense. However, he won’t be forgotten when the Broncos need a 3rd down. With Graham/Scheff and Stokes, we have a lot of weapons for 3rd and 4.
Moreno/Buckhalter in '09
I know many of us think Scheff can be....
up there with the “elite” TE’s in the NFL….I’m certainly one of those. I see what Gates did last week and think how easy it “should” be for TS to do that as well…we certainly have a better OL than SD…
Too many acronyms….gettin a headache LOL
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!! (April 2009 prediction)
Revised to 11-5 due to reality!
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
You should go to CVS and pick up Tylenol PM.
Drive back home in your SUV while listening to a CD. Once you get back, you can listen to 850 KOA or watch ESPN. Hope your headache goes away.
If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
by kentuckybronco on Dec 4, 2009 9:30 PM MST up reply actions
LOL
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!! (April 2009 prediction)
Revised to 11-5 due to reality!
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams

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