Broncos overtake Chargers in a tie-break? Could happen

Hello.  This is my first posting and I want to say how awesome this community is and I've enjoyed reading everyone's contributions for a while now.

This certainly could be too early to start thinking about, but I did a little analysis and tried to map out the tie-breaking scenarios which would allow the Broncos to overtake the Chargers in the division. I've gone through the first four tie-breakers.

I checked it over a few times, but there still could be a few errors.  Let me know if I messed up somewhere.  Also, I am a computer programmer, so that's why the breakdown looks the way it does.  I hope it isn't too confusing.

Head to Head

The Broncos and Chargers split the series, so we will move on to the next tie-breaker.

Division games

Since San Diego has already swept through the division with the exception of the loss at home to the Broncos, it is up to the Broncos to keep pace and win both games with KC and their second game with Oakland at home.

We will have a hard time getting into the playoffs if we do not take care of business and finish off the rest of the division. One loss in any of these three games would be extremely damaging not only the division tie-breaker but also for a wild card berth as well, thus making Sunday's game all the more important.

Therefore, let's begin with the assumption that SD and DEN will be tied at (5-1) in the division.

Common games SD 8-3 [2-2] / DEN 7-4 [4-3]

assumptions:
Division records tied at (5-1)
Games against division opponents are disregarded based on above assumption

Completed common games (SD result/DEN result):

• BAL (L/L)
• PIT (L/L)
• NYG (W/W)

Pending common games (SD result/DEN result):

• CLE (?/W)
• DAL (?/W)
• PHI (W/?)
• CIN (?/W)
• WAS (?/L)

Scenario breakdown based on overall record:

TIED OVERALL at 12-4 (assumes DEN wins out AND SD loses one):
if SD loses only to TEN,
  SD wins tie-breaker on common games SD[6-2] vs. DEN[5-3]
else (assumes SD loses one to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS),
  TIED on common games at [5-3]; move to conference record tie-breaker

TIED OVERALL at 11-5 (assumes DEN loses one to IND or PHI AND SD loses two):
if SD loses to TEN and SD loses one to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS
  if DEN loses only to PHI,
    SD wins tie-breaker on common games SD[5-3] vs. DEN[4-4]
  else
    TIED on common games at [5-3]; move to conference record tie-breaker
else if SD loses two to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS
  if DEN loses only to PHI,
    TIED on common games at [4-4]; move to conference record tie-breaker
  else
    DEN wins tie-breaker on common games SD[4-4] vs. DEN[5-3]

TIED OVERALL at 10-6 (assumes DEN loses BOTH to IND and PHI AND SD loses three):
if SD loses to TEN and SD loses two to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS,
  TIED on common games at [4-4]; move to conference record tie-breaker
else if SD loses three to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS
  DEN wins tie-breaker on common games SD[3-5] vs. DEN[4-4]

CONCLUSIONS on Common Games tie-breaker:

Biggest games will come in Week 16 when Dawkins and the Broncos visit Philly and SD visits TEN.  These two games are huge for determining who wins the common games tie-breaker.

Conference Record SD {6-3} / DEN {8-3}*

assumptions:
*KCx2 and OAK are counted as wins based on tie-breaker assumptions*
Division records tied at (5-1)
Common games records tied (see section above)

Remaining non-division conference games:

• SD: CLE, CIN, TEN
• DEN: IND

Scenario breakdown based on overall record:

TIED OVERALL at 12-4 (assumes DEN wins out and SD's one loss not to TEN):
if SD loses one to CLE or CIN,
  DEN wins tie-breaker on conference games SD{8-4} vs. DEN{9-3}
else
  TIED on conference games at {9-3}; move to strength of victory tie-breaker

TIED OVERALL at 11-5 (assumes DEN loses one of IND or PHI):
if DEN's loss was to PHI (assumes SD loses two to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS),
  if SD loses both to DAL and WAS,
    TIED on conference games at {9-3}; move to strength of victory tie-breaker
  else (assumes SD loses at least one to CLE or CIN),
    DEN wins tie-breaker on conference games SD{8-4 or worse} vs. DEN{9-3}
else (assumes SD loses to TEN and SD loses one to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS),
  if SD loses one to CLE or CIN,
    DEN wins tie-breaker on conference games SD{7-5} vs. DEN{8-4}
  else
    TIED on conference games at {8-4}; move to strength of victory tie-breaker

TIED OVERALL at 10-6 (assumes DEN loses BOTH to IND and PHI and
                                                   SD loses to TEN and SD loses two to CLE or DAL or CIN or WAS):
if SD loses to TEN and SD loses both to DAL and WAS,
  TIED on conference games at {8-4}; move to strength of victory tie-breaker
else (assumes SD loses to TEN and SD loses at least one to CLE or CIN),
  DEN wins tie-breaker on conference games SD{7-5 or worse} vs. DEN{8-4}

CONCLUSIONS on conference record tie-breaker:

DEN most likely wins if conference record tie-breaker is needed, no scenario gives SD the tie-breaker for conference games.  If it comes down to Strength of victory, I like the Broncos chances considering this year's schedule.