Not So Far Away

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 4:05 PM MST

    Experiencing an incredibly busy couple of weeks at work, combined with family obligations, a major home improvement project and an intense coastal navigation class left me with little time to do more than skim the absolutely awesome posts here at MHR, and drop the occasional comment and rec'd. I've very much enjoyed the wealth of articles that have been flowing from the creative and intelligent minds of our members. I've also been totally stoked over the number of members who have taken the leap and made their first posts. Way to go & kudos to each and every one of you.
    One of the side-effects of having little time to myself is that I often find myself skimming articles on the MSM (please do not revoke my membership for this ;-p). One in particular caught my eye the other day. It was an article by John Clayton (please do not burn me in effigy for daring to cite his work). It was titled: "Elite QBs more vital than ever" (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=4705986). The reason that this caught my attention was that rarely, when discussing "elite" or "franchise" quarterbacks, the writers rarely define what they mean by the term. Clayton gave the readers his definition -- an elite quarterback has the following characteristics:

1 -- can run an offense that scores 21.5 or more points per game.
2 -- throws for 220 or more yards per game.
3 -- has a 60% or higher completion rate.
4 -- has led 4th quarter comebacks.

    Clayton then goes on to offer a list of QBs that he sees as "elite," and includes a couple that he would consider to be on the bubble. Those QBs are:

AFC -- P. Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Palmer, and Flacco.
NFC -- Brees, Favre, Romo, McNabb, Rodgers, Warner, E. Manning, and Ryan.
Bubble -- Schaub, Hasselbeck (on bubble due to rib injury), and Cutler (was elite in Denver, INTs have dragged him down in Chi)

    Of course, the obvious question that arose for me at this point was "Do these QBs, in the 2009 season, meet the criteria set forth by Clayton, and how does Kyle Orton compare to this group?

Results after the jump

The Data (NOTE: I only looked at performance data for this season in games-to-date)

Quarterback	21.5+ points/game	220+ yds/game	60%+ Completions	4th Qtr Comebacks
AFC
P. Manning	27.6	310.5	70.4	6
Brady	27.9	298.7	65.7	1
Roethlisberger	22.5	286.7	68.9	1
Rivers	28.4	267.1	64.2	2
Palmer	21	211.5	61.0	4
Flacco	23.4	249.5	65.4	2

NFC
Brees	37.0	283.4	68.8	3
Favre	31.1	261.3	69.3	2
Romo	23.2	266.6	60.2	3
McNabb	26.6	243.2	61.4	2
Rodgers	26.9	285.1	65.5	2
Warner	24.3	271.8	67.5	2
E. Manning	24.7	244.0	60.5	2
Ryan	24.7	208.3	59.4	2

On the Bubble
Schaub	23.5	294.7	67.8	1
Cutler	19.6	242.8	62.8	1
Hasselbeck	20.3	217.2	59.8	1
Totally Ignored
Orton	17.8	222.5	62.2	4

The colored cells indicate where a quarterback has failed to meet one of Clayton's criteria.

Several things leapt out at me regarding this list of elite QBs:

1 -- Two are listed (Palmer and Ryan) even though they fall below the criteria level in half the categories.

2 -- Schaub is left off the list, even though he meets the criteria in all 4 categories, and is ahead of Romo in scoring, is ahead of everyone except P. Manning and Brady in yards, and is ahead of 10 of the "elite" QBs in Completion percentage.

3 -- Hasselbeck is described as being on the fringe, even though he falls below the criteria in 3 out of the 4 categories.

4 -- Orton is left off the list even though he meets the criteria for 3 out of the 4 categories.

5 -- So far this season, Orton has more 4th quarter comebacks than everyone except Peyton Manning (though I will admit that Kyle is tied with Palmer on that one).

6 -- Orton's completion percentage is higher than 6 of the "elite" QBs.

Now, am I arguing that we should all hail Kyle as an "elite" QB at this point in time? Not necessarily, though -- depending on how you define the term -- the case could be made that he is growing into the role.

What I drew out of all of this is the same conclusion that I drew when I looked at the various discussion about what it takes to be a "franchise" quarterback. It's largely a matter of perspective and preference. Typically, we all tend to make definitions that raise up our favorite player to the status that we would like to see him hold. Ultimately, my own position is that the elite quarterback is the one who helps his team win games, irregardless of final margins of victory and statistics. In that regard, maybe Kyle is not so far away from elite status as we might be led to believe.

Poll

Is there such a thing as an "elite" quarterback?

Yes (explain criteria in the comments)

28 votes

No (explain why not in the comments)

10 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Tweet Comment 37 comments | 21 recs |

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Comments

Rec'd

I too dabbled in pacifism once...

by waltersobchakbronco on Dec 4, 2009 4:49 PM MST reply actions

Yes

Only a few quaterbacks hit my elite rating. Manning, Favre, Brady, and Brees. When a quaterback can take the game in his own hands and do what he wants, to me thats an elite quaterback. A good example is the Patriots Colts game, Belichick knew he could not stop Manning and tried to keep him off the field. Didn’t work out, but he liked the odds of going on 4th down as opposed to giving Peyton the ball.

Obviously ~~every~~ most quaterbacks in the NFL are good( OK maybe not Chris Simms). If quaterbacks don’t hit Claytons “elite” scale they shouldn’t be starting in the NFL. Damn near half the league hits his #‘s. Being elite is something you can’t wrap silly stats around, it’s forcing your will upon the other team week in and week out.

You compare Elite quaterbacks to every quaterback that has played the game(Montana, Elway,) you compare good quaterbacks to who are playing right now.

Denver rookie head coach Josh McDaniels doesn't have a grasp on how to build a team." - John Clayton, April 23rd, 2009

by diviesti on Dec 4, 2009 4:52 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

I like the distinction you draw:

You compare Elite quaterbacks to every quaterback that has played the game(Montana, Elway,) you compare good quaterbacks to who are playing right now.

I think that is a very insightful way of looking at it. Thanks for adding it to the mix.

"Never give up! Never surrender!" Captain Peter Quincy Taggert in "Galaxy Quest"
"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 5:05 PM MST up reply actions

great fanpost, great post.

diviesti, you put it extremely well. i can never come up with a good description of elite or franchise quarterbacks except that they’ve got the “it factor”. to use the re-treaded elway example, #7 was elite even before the superbowl wins—practically despite his statistics. he was just that great.

i doubt neckbeard will ever be elite. he seems to lack the take-this-game-by-the-cojones-and-end-it-by-myself command that the great ones have. but right now he’s good enough, and the broncos can win with him.

random thoughts on two other guys:

cutler—i thought he was elite when we had him and i was pretty perturbed about what went down. i think i might have been wrong about him. i’m good with that.

brady— i don’t know why, but i don’t get it. i must watch him on off nights or something because i see him as really good but not elite. i know, i know— i’m high or something, right? he’s a very intelligent quarterback, has a decent arm and strong leadership skills, but… okay, here: put elway on a crappy team, he gets them to the superbowl. put peyton on a crappy team, same thing. brady? i doubt it. i honestly doubt it. eh, in any case, i guess his superbowl wins are undeniable…

great stuff, BShrout. excellent insight, diviesti.

by oxmouth on Dec 5, 2009 12:07 AM MST up reply actions

i agree about brady

a good athelete and smart qb, but not a manning or elway. i think he has worked with some mediocre talent though, but i would credit the scheme and coaching more than anything. put him on a team with mediocre scheme and i think he looks very average.

"I just looked across the huddle to see the guys in the huddle with me: great offensive line, great talent at wide receiver, great tight ends, great running backs. If we execute and play the way that we should, it should be tough to stop us."
-K.O.

by Jay Fin Anderson on Dec 5, 2009 11:23 AM MST up reply actions

Forcing your will

Diviesti,
That is the key phrase when talking about elite players of any position. TD forced his will and dictated events with his talent. Elway, Montana, Rice, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders. Elite players. Manning has been Elite for some time. Brees has become elite in the last two years. Other than that, there are few elite players right now. Cutler, Hasselbeck and Orton are not there.

However I think Orton has the most upside and could evolve into a Brees type player. Orton broke all of Drew’s records at Purdue and is progressing at about the same rate. Orton is Brees four years ago.

Cutler will never mature enough to allow his progression. He will never be elite. Hasselbeck is done. Big Ben, McNabb and Brady are on the bubble and the rest are not in the conversation just yet. Too soon to tell.

by AttwaterForHOF on Dec 5, 2009 11:54 AM MST up reply actions

Great post B

to me an elite QB is one who can motivate his team to perform under trying circumstances and get them the W. He doesn’t have to carry the team but if he can motivate them to elevate their game then I think he can be considered elite. I don’t think Orton is there (yet) but has the potential to be. I look at your list and all I see is claytons wish list, sad but true.

btw I was your fifth rec and sixth vote.

by papasteven on Dec 4, 2009 5:05 PM MST reply actions

thanks for all three

1)your definition of an elite quarterback
2)the rec
3)the vote.

And I agree with you about Orton. I can’t quite bring myself to claim he’s elite, yet. But I will argue that he is far better than many people give him credit for, and that he has the potential to become elite if he continues to grow in McDaniels’ system — from what I’ve seen, Kyle is already on a pace to have the best season of his career.

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 5:07 PM MST up reply actions

Impossible list

14 QBs is almost half of the league. You can not really have half of any class as elite. Top 20% is elite, maybe a quarter, but not half. Therefore that list was a joke.

And criteria for inclusion were, shall I say, “Cutler-friendly”. Yards are included, but INTs do not count in any way (TDs are accounted for indirectly through scoring). That’s skewed.

I like papasteven’s idea that leadership counts, but it is intangible and difficult to fairly assess. Still, I think if we limit the definition of elite to less the top 20%, it will be possible to factor it in. I mean, counting top leaders, nobody doubts BDawk. It is further down that it is becomes more difficult question.

by si_ice on Dec 4, 2009 6:01 PM MST reply actions

Love the additons/qualifications

and totally agree. Saying that half the league’s QB’s are elite does render the concept meaningless. I agree that INTs should be accounted for.

And if you refer to Clayton’s article, the scoring category is described as the QB is able to run an offense that scores 21.5 points per game. With that kind of definition you could have the QB running an offense that mainly puts up field goals.

I loved this statement:

And criteria for inclusion were, shall I say, "Cutler-friendly".

It shows once more how someone wants desperately to be able to portray a favorite player as “elite.” Hence my comment in the post that such definitions usually have more to do with the desires of the person who created the list than with a truly objective measure.

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 6:56 PM MST up reply actions

I consider an elite QB as a player a team cannot win with out.

I;m not sure the Saints would be the same team without Brees or the Vikes without Farve. Manning makes the Colts and we all saw what happens when Big Ben goes down. Kyle Orton is the center of out offense right now. ‘m not saying we couldn’t do better with someone else but, we saw what happened when he went down. QB’s are elite to the system and scheme they are in and missed more than any other player on the team. Can’t do without them in my honest opinion. Thanks B for bringing this to the fore front.

by bfree2bronc on Dec 4, 2009 6:59 PM MST reply actions

yqw

I like the qualification about what happens when the starter goes down.

Which raises an interesting point — what to do with Patriots who very narrowly missed the playoffs with a backup who had not started since high school. What does does that say about Brady? LOL

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 7:00 PM MST up reply actions

you say brady takes a team to 18-0 and the superbowl while cassel takes em to 11-5 and misses the playoffs :)

by march20 on Dec 4, 2009 8:36 PM MST up reply actions

LOL

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 8:47 PM MST up reply actions

Ha Ha...there are always exceptions to the rules...McDaniels' mentoring has to be a factor in that equation...LOL

by bfree2bronc on Dec 4, 2009 9:12 PM MST up reply actions

lol

I think that it says a lot about the team, but that it also is a testament to both Brady and Cassel. Cassel came from a player who had to get better to be an afterthought to a very respectable record in a season that saw him improve greatly over its course. Brady is, well, Brady….

Orton has quickly become something that you don’t quickly become willing to lose – a leader on and off the field who has the team’s confidence who plays hurt and still does well. We saw how easy it is to run this offense badly. The point of the article is excellent – the list itself makes the question moot. It’s terribly inconsistent. But as much as anything, this kind of thing from John Clayton is as meaningless as a drunkard’s promise. Who really is concerned with his opinion at this point?

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Doc Bear on Dec 4, 2009 7:46 PM MST reply actions

As useless as I believe Clayton's opinion to be

he does provide fodder for some good discussions, and does raise our hackles enough to force us to take a serious look at where we stand on various issues and viewpoints.

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 8:48 PM MST up reply actions

btw emmett

I totally agree with your assessment of Orton

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 10:16 PM MST up reply actions

I agree with you on Orton Emmett.

In my opinion (awkward as it is on most occasions) I believe Kyle Orton will be our QB for a long long while. And I believe McDaniels will start building the offense around him in F/A and the draft next spring. My theory is that McD will chose an “elite” Guard or Center first or second in the draft. I know…all of you Orton doubters will be swinging your mallets towards me but just read what Emmett said above, scratch your head and come back to earth. Kyle is a very intelligent individual who garners ever little thing that McD is teaching him. He is a tough competitor and with every mistake he doesn’t hang his head and mope, he thinks about what just happened and tries to rectify the problem and correct it.

It’s a miracle for us he harnessed so much of the playbook in such a short time and has been successful in it. You can’t argue that part, can we? I don’t. I can see things before they ever happen…That comes with age…Try it in your life time, you’ll enjoy it.

by bfree2bronc on Dec 4, 2009 9:23 PM MST up reply actions

excellent points bf2b

I’m one of those in the “Orton will be our QB for a long time camp” also.

So I guess I’d better be ready to duck the mallards, oops, I mean mallets along with you.

by Brian Shrout on Dec 4, 2009 10:15 PM MST up reply actions

Great post and discussion BShrout...Rec'd

“I believe Kyle Orton will be our QB for a long long while. And I believe McDaniels will start building the offense around him in F/A and the draft next spring. My theory is that McD will chose an "elite" Guard or Center first or second in the draft.” -bfree

I agree with this!

I think using stats to determine “elite” status is, well, silly (Clayton)…I agree with others here that, it is much more subjective and determined by way too many factors to be a simple accessment…I believe KO brings the Broncos all the un-measureable intangibles (character, toughness, inteligence, leadership, heart) that (will) make him “elite” for the Broncos…The stats will be but a by-product of successful results with the intangibles.

by BroncoSense72 on Dec 5, 2009 7:58 AM MST reply actions

I voted yes

Sorry, I haven’t read the other posts here, but I believe that Elway was a great example of this. An elite QB in my mind is someone who is worthy of MVP status, because were it not for him, the team would lose games. It is the 4th quarter comeback type of player that one can call elite.

An example of someone who is not there now, although they may get there in time, is Tony Romo. Thus far, he’s folded in the month of December. Hopefully, he’ll play the best game of his life when the Chargers visit Dallas.

Nice find, btw, and Rec’d.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche

by Horsepower on Dec 5, 2009 8:41 AM MST reply actions

I didn't read through the comments, but

My definition would be based on Rings first, Wins second, and then probably scoring efficiency and completion efficiency. Also, the word “elite” implies top 10%, or even top 5%. So I would say that you would have to broaden the variables to really identify the upper crust. They are all “good,” well, at least 32 of them are. =)

I did come across this article the other day and was curious also. I stopped reading it after he listed them, simply because I did not agree with the statements. Good stuff B.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Dec 5, 2009 10:35 AM MST reply actions

John Elway's career completion percentage was 56.9

He only had 3 seasons where he was over 60%… And he barely passed the cut for yards, throwing for exactly 220 yards per game.

For the Broncos, Brian Griese’s percentage was 62.2% and his average yards per game was 221.9%.

Does anyone seriously believe that Griese belongs in the same conversation with Elway in terms of Broncos Franchise Quarterbacks?

I think the problem with using statistics to define a “Franchise Quarterback” is that it forces people to make that kind of comparison when we know damn well that there is no comparison.

My definition of a Franchise Quarterback is: If you have to make a case as to why he’s a Franchise Quarterback, he’s not.

by Velveeta on Dec 5, 2009 10:57 AM MST reply actions

I voted yes, and the only elite QBs are:

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees.

On the bubble: Phillip Rivers and Donovan McNabb.

At any given moment the NFL has less than 5 Elite QBs in the league.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Dec 5, 2009 12:40 PM MST reply actions

Super Bowls + Stats = Elite

Though I don’t think that holds true all the time. Of course players like Trent Dilfer don’t count, but I also can’t ever think of Eli Manning as an elite QB, he is really inconsistent. List of Elite QBs currently playing; Petyon Manning, Tom Brady. Roethlisberger can grow into the role, he hasn’t quiet played to the level of Manning and Brady over his career. I think we are too quick to crown elite QBs based on fantasy football stats instead of leadership and Super Bowls. The list of great QBs over the last twenty years is embarrassingly large because of the emotional attachment too many people have to a player. Jim Kelley, Warren Moon, and too some degree Marino are placed on the same pedestal as Joe Montana, John Elway, and to a lesser degree Steve Young. Does Moon, Kelley and Marino have the stats to be considered elite, most definitely, but they did not lead their team with those stats to what really matters and that is Super Bowl wins.
Current players are over valued in my opinion when it comes to talking about the all time greats and future Hall of Famers. McNabb is a very good QB, but I could not ever put him on the same level as Elway, Montana, or even Bart Starr. Same goes for Kurt Warner (not consistent enough over his career), Carson Palmer, and Eli Manning.
I like Velveeta’s criteria: “If you have to make a case as to why he’s a Franchise Quarterback, he’s not.”

by D-fence on Dec 5, 2009 9:50 PM MST reply actions

totally love this comment

are too quick to crown elite QBs based on fantasy football stats

this is the perspective i was trying to find a way to say at the end of my post.

by Brian Shrout on Dec 6, 2009 2:14 AM MST up reply actions

I agree

with this list being a little too much. Also, I think Clayton didn’t include int’s were because it might throw out 2 of his favorite players – Favre, Cutler.

by bronclover4ever on Dec 5, 2009 11:21 PM MST reply actions

wow...totally hard to measure

Soooo…its a team game with a bunch of guys doing all the football stuff…and lucky bounces…and coaching…and everything…kind of like making a casserole…some chicken this time…some beef another…maybe some corn…or zucchini…or pasta…never comes out the same.

if all the guys are totally zoned in…and are some kind of transcendentally cosmic convergence…and win…and are like Butch Cassidy and The Sun Dance Kid…“who are those guys”…then they can become a no-name bunch of champions.

and then everyone is panicked to figure out who the elite guy is…when it was all of them…and it wont be the same next year…wow…it might not be the same in the next game.

who can tell…i cant…and i’m cool with that…its just fun when it happens…kind of like a mystical magically harry potter kinda thing…be happy…and enjoy.

gooooooooooo broncos

MHR...and proud of it!

by MHRsGirl on Dec 6, 2009 8:57 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

you can’t argue with mystical magical casserole !

by Jenna Talia on Dec 6, 2009 9:00 AM MST up reply actions

You're making me hungry.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.

by Troy Hufford on Dec 6, 2009 9:54 AM MST up reply actions

BAM!

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Dec 6, 2009 3:27 PM MST up reply actions

I believe ...

the term “Elite Quarterback” is a term the media uses (and created) to hype a player for ratings and is something that is reinforced by vested interests — i.e. selling tix, jerseys, advertising, etc. Elite quarterback, as a term, has nothing to do with the quality of a quarterback anymore than a Boy Band has anything to do with quality music. It’s all about packaging and selling a product.

Your analysis is spot on and very insightful. Orton produces while other “elite quarterbacks” don’t because he plays the game well and doesn’t have the flash many others have. Obviously someone like P. Manning is a great quarterback and “elite” because he is flashy and marketable.

I don’t care about the flash. Sure it’s fun, but I love the Broncos and love to watch them win. I don’t care how it happens.

Oh, and I doubt I needed to mention it but Clayton has no credibility because if it isn’t flashy it doesn’t register in his weee espn brain (Sidenote: I think they need all those sparkly lights and graphics to keep their hearts going or something). He is the guy who said this 8-4 playoff bound team was destined for 3-13. Why? Because Orton was the QB. He didn’t bother to consider anything else. It would’ve meant too much thinking.

~me

by vincerelli on Dec 7, 2009 4:28 PM MST reply actions

Or "franchise QB"

I can’t stand that term.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Girl, you don't need to be a 10, as long as you have a good smile and smell like bacon.

by Troy Hufford on Dec 7, 2009 5:06 PM MST up reply actions

True dat!

Another garbage term!

~me

by vincerelli on Dec 7, 2009 10:56 PM MST up reply actions

Agreed

it’s a nonsensical term.

By definition, all NFL teams are franchises.

All NFL teams have QBs.

Therefore all NFL teams have franchise QBs.

by Brian Shrout on Dec 8, 2009 2:36 PM MST up reply actions

I agree

It’s about flash and smoke and mirrors.

The ultimate result is whether or not the QB helps the team to win, and the final arbiter of that is the record. And look how that’s fallen out for “the list”:

P. Manning & Brees 12-0
Favre 10-2
Rivers 9-3
Palmer 9-3
Romo 8-4
McNabb 8-4
Rodgers 8-4
Warner 8-4
(Orton 8-4)
Brady 7-5
E. Manning 7-5
Roethlisberger 6-6
Flacco 6-6
Ryan 6-6
Schaub 5-7
Cutler 5-7
Hasselbeck 5-7

Go figure

by Brian Shrout on Dec 8, 2009 2:34 PM MST up reply actions