The Denver Broncos Playoff Guide: Who to Root for and How to Get There

We could definitely still win the division, but I’m thinking the 1st WC is most likely.

We have one of the softest schedules of the teams still in serious contention. It’s officially the 4th quarter of the season now and it’s time to start playing our best football. We don’t have to worry about all those other teams and scenarios if we just take care of business. I think all of our remaining games are winnable. I think we match up very well against Indy (talented veteran secondary against a pass oriented offense). Assuming we win the games we should (OAK & KC) and win one of the two more challenging games (IND & PHI), I’m confident we’ll be playing well into January.

that’s the kind of info i really want to see but am too lazy to do myself.

i think san diego is about out of reach with tiebreakers and all, but to even sniff the playoffs after that TMZ off season? awesome. i said before the whole thing started that i’d be happy with the team showing progress and finishing 7-9. but playoffs? we’re talking about PLAYOFFS?! love. it.

Between PITT and BALT we only need one of them to drop 1 game
(besides the game they play each other)
And were basically sealed/locked in to the playoffs

Think about it, its pretty confusing. Between them there is 9 games, the highest possible outcome is 8-1, lowest 0-9. If they drop one game they are combined 8-2. If they split the losses Pitt will be 9-7 if Balt takes them all Balt is 9-7 and out, and if Pitt takes them both they are 8-8 and coooked.
One game is guaranteed (play each other)
So just one loss and were in
 pretty interesting huh?

Thanks a lot.

Only thing I’ll throw into the mix is the way the Raiders are playing post-Jamarcus means that they are by no means a gimmee. I like to think the Bronco’s will end up with 11 wins but it could as easily be 9.

If Denver pulls off a win against the daunting Colts and the Boys ride the lightining then I will be well manicured for a while. We will prove that we are back on track and can play with the elite teams of the leauge – dolts loosing shows what we saw today, the chargers peaked too soon. If the above happens we are yet in control of our own fate – we will tie on the first four tie breakers and then lose to the margin of victory heads up. Funny thing – a tie at 12-4 and dolts are champs – tie at 11-5 and the Broncos are.

Earlier this week I posted another comment – I’ve fleshed it out a bit since then.

Before this weekend, there were 1024 ways that DEN and SD could have ended up in terms of wins and losses. Denver was Division Champ in about 20% (200) of them, San Diego was champ in about 80% (818) of them, and they fell all the way to a late tiebreaker (point differential, the one after div record, common opponents, and conference record) in 6 of them.

However, I think San Diego’s schedule is a bit tougher. I picked some arbitrary likelihoods of each team winning each remaining game, and I picked:

DEN@KC: 75%
DEN@IND: 30%
OAK@DEN: 85%
DEN@PHI: 40%
KC@DEN: 90%

SD@CLE: 90%
SD@DAL: 35%
CIN@SD: 60%
SD@TEN: 45%
WAS@SD: 70%

Given those odds, I roughly had Denver’s chances of being division champs at around 26%.

Now that Denver and San Diego have won both of their games this weekend, the numbers are different. There are now only 256 different ways their records can be compared. All the tie (late tiebreaker) scenarios are still possible, as they all relied on both teams winning this weekend, so Denver has about 18% of the scenarios, and San Diego has about 79% of the scenarios.

As for the likelihood of each game, this weekend’s games are obviously 100%, and that means that Denver’s likelihood is now around 30% instead of 26% (since I was seeing Cleveland as being more of a sure thing than Kansas City).

Also, given this week’s games, let’s say I change the likelihoods of the upcoming games. Oakland’s looking tougher, so I’ll say we have an 80% chance of winning, rather than 85%. Also, San Diego didn’t look so hot, so I’ll say they only have a 30% chance of winning in Dallas, and a 55% chance of beating Cincinnati. This raises Denver’s chance of being division champ to just under 1 in 3.

Last year, we thought we would win the division and that didn’t work out so well. You can’t assume wins against any teams, as the Washington game should remind us, if not the faders beating the Steelers.

One game at a time and the next opponent is Indy. We have to play perfect to stay with them, lets hope the team prepares well this week and that all injuries are healed. I think we need to steal a page out of the Dolphins playbook and keep the ball for 45 minutes to win, and not give up the big play when Manning has the ball. I still don’t know how Miami lost that game. I bet they were wishing they had Goodman and Hill in the backfield, maybe they wouldn’t have given up TD’s with such ease.

Based on conference records. It is possible for Denver and San Diego to be tied in Head to Head , Division,Conference, and Common opponents records. If SD beats Tennessee and loses rest and Denver loses to Indy and Philly or Denver beats Philly and SD beats Tennessee and either Dallas or Washington and loses to Cincy and the other NFCE opponent. In that case I don’t know what the tie-breaker is.

It’s GO PACKERS!

I think that Chargers might drop 2 games and we finish tied 11-5!

Nice job RiG