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This offseason outline is predicated upon Denver switching to a 3-4 defense.  Who to cut and or trade is not at the center of my outline. This outline is mainly in regards to player acquisition based upon a pre-draft evaluation of current personnel.  Some tough decisions need to be made but Denver must truly focus on the task ant hand because, as they say, time is wasting.

Here is my 6 point plan.  The "talent board" (click the link below to see it) is a great breakdown of available talent via trade and draft as well as a high level perspective on Denver’s current talent.

Talent Board: http://flickcabin.com/public/view/full/21478

Goal 1: Make a decision on what current players we want at Defensive End, Outside Linebacker, and Inside Linebacker.  McDaniels alluded to this process in his most recent www.denverbroncos.com interview.  Personnel decisions at each position affect the others.  Denver must determine if Jarvis Moss and Elvis Dumervil should be playing OLB or DE.  If it is determined that they should be outside rush ends, then DJ Williams may move inside.  If this happens, Denver will need to determine who will be playing the 5 technique DE position in the 3-4 defense next year.  Denver’s draft priorities in the first half of the draft rest very heavily on this decision.  Also, Denver must have, at very least, an idea of where DJ Williams fits.  He may not be the speed rush OLB that a traditional 3-4 is looking for.  Denver must make a decision to keep him, trade him, or ask him to switch positions.

Goal 2: Make a decision on where Peyton Hillis should spend the bulk of his days in 2009.  Denver must make a decision and stick with it.  The decision greatly affects the outcome of Goal #3.

Free Agency (begins 2/27):

Goal 3: Free Agent RB – I target a Free Agent Running Back because Denver needs a proven commodity in the run game to pair with either Torain or Hillis.  Denver simply needs more talent in the backfield.  There is a glut of Free Agent RBs available this offseason, and my guess is that the bidding for a handful of "top-tier" backs will drive their prices up, so Denver should make their move as soon as possible.  If Denver chooses to use Hillis at FB, then they will need at least a 2-down RB.  If Hillis will be used at RB, then Denver will need a complimentary back.  Denver needs more talent and depth at RB, regardless.  Denver should not concentrate on finding a RB in the first half of the draft because young defenders are a bigger priority and the top tier backs will all be gone by early in the 2nd round, so to have a shot at a top-tier RB in the draft, Denver would have to use a 1st round pick to do so.  Denver cannot afford to miss out on a top 10 college defender with its pick at #12.  If Denver decides that Hillis will play FB or that Hillis is not a 2 or 3 down back, then my ideal RB would be Derrick Ward.  If Denver decides that Hillis is a 2 or 3 down back and should be "the starter" then a player like LaMont Jordan would fit the bill well and Denver will need to look at adding a FB late in the draft of they don’t think Pinnock is the answer or Larsen moves permanently to ILB (although I foresee a Mike Vrabel type goalline package featuring Larsen coming to an offense near you).            

Goal 4: Free Agent S – I target a Free Agent Safety to pair with Josh Barrett and a Safety TBD from the draft.  Denver needs depth at safety, but if Denver can add a known quantity at Safety who is a top-tier player, then they will solve many of their basic problems in both coverage and defending the ground game.  Players of Marquand Manuel and Marlon McCree’s ilk won’t be tolerated in my new scheme.  I frankly don’t know enough about the technical desires of Mike Nolan and McD in regards to a safety to determine which player I would consider signing, but I would guess that Denver would like to have someone physical who has the ability to make a few plays a game, but who is also proven and has a few season under his belt.  There is no shortage of available, proven, and somewhat affordable Safeties in Free Agency this off season and Denver should take advantage of the competition for jobs and probably get somebody for face value.  Denver can still target a Safety in the draft, but this will free up a second round and, depending on who Denver signs, maybe even free up a third round pick as well.            

NFL Draft (begins 4/25):

Goal 5: If BJ Raji is available, however unlikely, draft him.  Attempt to trade up a few spots, but not at the expense of your 2nd round pick.  There is a huge disparity between Raji (#1 NT) and any of the other NTs in the draft and the prospects of finding a Free Agent NT with upside without breaking the bank this offseason are slim.  Denver cannot survive on Defense without someone comfortable in a 3-4 NT.  Denver’s roster has no NT.  Denver can use Powell, Thomas, or Robertson (if he’s resigned) at NT but not as a viable solution for more than a few games covering for an injury.  Powell looks like a player with good upside, but from the film I’ve watched, he would look very good at DE in the 3-4 scheme and coming off of a torn Achilles is no easy task.  The NT position is the main cog of the 3-4 defense and Denver simply doesn’t have anyone who can effectively play the position at a professional level.  If BJ Raji is not available, Denver must target Brace, Terrance Taylor, or Sammie Lee Hill in rounds 3 through 5, but Denver can absolutely not afford to leave New York without a NT on the roster because there is not a realistic possibility that Denver can bring in a Free Agent NT who can contribute immediately (unless Denver buys Haynesworth) and have upside compared to any of the incoming rookie NTs I mentioned above. Glover, Jackson, and Watson are too expensive, old, and unproven compared to the upside and cost of the incoming rookies except for Raji, who, by most accounts is worth the pricetag.  Why would you use a draft pick on an unproven player like Watson, when you could draft a NT and pay him a rookie salary and potentially get better upside for less risk?

Goal 6: Now that Goal 1 has been solved, Denver will have a vacancy or vacancies to fill.  Denver should use their first pick (if BJ Raji is unavailable) to fill one of its vacancies at DE, OLB, or ILB depending upon what personnel has been moved where and who they have most highly rated.  If Raji falls to Denver, Denver should use their 2nd round pick in the very same manner. 

I completely understand that there are exponential possibilities for Denver this offseason.  Denver may take a RB in the first round of their top guys are unavailable.  They could trade down.  I acknowledge the probability that my outline will likely turn out nothing like what actually happens, but I think the market looks right for Denver this offseason.  Fortunately, two of Denver’s biggest need areas have ample supply as of today in the FA market.  If Denver can make some great decisions, they could hypothetically enter draft day with two less needs.  As it stands today, Denver is missing a starter on offense and at least 4 starters on defense, and depending on where the chips fall, possibly up to 5 or 6.  Denver could, with a couple of moves in Free Agency, go into the draft with all 11 starters on offense and looking for 3 or 4 on defense, which is a much less daunting task than is presented today.