You may certainly be right – perhaps the Denver running game will never be the same. But, I wonder what happens the next time we come up with a true franchise back – will McD and company become a run-first team? Remember, Elway never won until he got the great runner, and Marino never did. Likewise, the one year NE sold out the run game in favor of flinging the ball across the yard, they lost the one game that counted most.

I suppose it doesn’t matter whether the running game is the chicken or the egg. To me, what is important is that Denver gets enough carries. I don’t care what down they run on, as long as they commit to it. But that’s just my take. The last 3 SB Champs have all rushed the ball fewer times than Denver’s playoff teams – Pittsburgh 460 times, the ‘07 Giants 469 times and the ’06 Colts 439 times. Of course, all of those totals far out-number the Broncos’ 387 carries in 2008…

Wow, that is a comment deserving of its own post! Rec’d!

Great work on the yards per point stat – that certainly puts something we’ve all known into very clear numbers – the Denver offense has been incredibly inefficient in recent years. Of course, it’s also important to note that there are other factors involved. Denver’s poor defense and horrendous special teams consistently gave them terrible starting positions for each drive and therefore a long field to work with. Therefore, the Broncos have had to work much harder for their points than most other teams.

It’s very difficult to determine (maybe impossible) what caused the Broncos to commit less to the run. Yes, the departure of Gary Kubiak is possibly a factor, but then again his Texans were 16th in the NFL in rushing attempts this season. In 2007 they were 22nd, while in 2006 the Texans were 21st in rushes. Keep in mind that Cutler’s arrival in 2006 was surely a factor, as was the departure of Mike Anderson. Remember, 2006 was the year of 2 Bell’s (Tatum and Mike). Mike Bell was a UFA and was going to be the next TD, on the basis that he grew up a Denver fan wearing a TD jersey. So a lot of things happened between 2005 and 2006 that contributed to the fall of the rushing attack.

I agree with you completely – TD and Anderson spoiled Shanny and the Broncos, and they did run out of luck. However, I believe it was their own fault – they pushed their luck by seeking their RB’s by cheaper and cheaper methods by the year. Maybe TD’s monster contract and subsequent breakdown had a negative effect on Shanny, and perhaps after that he decided never to give big bucks to a back (hence the exportation of Clinton Portis).

Thanks, NTS for the props and the insight. Yes, it’s certainly hard to ascertain whether a solid rushing attack begets a decent defense or vice-versa. I would actually say that both the running game and defense need to be addressed – both units will help each other to improve.

As I’ve mentioned above and in many of my comments, I do think there has been a lack of RB talent in Denver, due to bargain-hunting in the RB talent pool. I’m actually working on a study of RB’s in the draft over the past decade, so hopefully that will shed some more light on the risk/reward of drafting a runner in the higher rounds versus the later.

Great stats – and it’s hard to be suprised. I like your proposed solution, but I’d also be very open to adding a good RB such as Ward. The desire to give up a first rounder to a RB tell us two things – we don’t believe that our line can block for just good, solid running backs, and we don’t like the1st round talent out there who aren’t RBs. I see a lot of the second – I can understand it, too, even though I don’t see it that way.

Great insight and the Football Outsiders stat is on the money.

Think of this, before Eddie Royal’s long jaunt this season, do you know the last run for over 70 yards? Answer, Javon Walker against the Steelers. We haven’t had a long run from a RB in YEARS!

The point of my post was not to say that Denver’s waning commitment to the run was behind their lack of winning in recent years. There are clearly many factors. It was merely to point out that the Broncos’ rushing attack has deteriorated for a few years now, not just 2008. So many among us blame the 2008 injuries and/or Jeremy Bates, but to me it’s about much bigger things than those two.

Thanks for the link to FO. Certainly a fascinating read. My only beef with that study is this…it looks at rushing yards in the 1st and 4th quarters and throughout games. However, they only consider carries in the 1st and 4th quarters. I think that carries are actually more important than yards. First of all, if you are able to commit to the run enough to rack up 500+ carries, you’re obviously doing something right and are eating up clock. Long, slow drives are what create advantages in time of possession. Long runs do not eat clock – look at the 2002 Broncos. Although they ran for a ton of yards, they did not make the playoffs. I think their low number of carries had a lot to do with that result.

The same goes for praising game-manager quarterbacks. The Titans this year didn’t win b/c Kerry Collins attempted few passes and took few risks. To the contrary, he was able to manage the game because they excelled in every other facet of play.

To me, this goes to the issue of abandoning the run too quickly. We all remember the games in which they ran with alacrity early, and then for some reason, begged off. The question I have is how did they handle their run/pass % compared to other teams playing from the same deficits. I accept that the defense was so lousy they had to go pass wacky. It would just be interesting to see if they went MORE pass-wacky than other teams that were constantly playing from deep holes. If there is such a team….

I agree…once JC has a reputable running game at his disposal, he will become unstoppable.

Any Broncos fan who knocks Gunther Cunningham has not watched a Broncos/Chiefs game in the last 15 years, and anyone who knocks Gunther Cunningham is obviously not a Broncos fan. He has absolutely had Shanny’s number for quite a long time. I am thrilled he is out of the division, and it’s even better that he’s out of the conference. Good riddance, and best wishes in Detroit, Gunther. I hope you stay there a very long time!

Running the ball well does not guarantee wins – just ask Oakland. They ran the ball many times and for a decent amount of yardage, and we all know where that got them. It is the chicken and the egg, no doubt. We could discuss this until the end of time and never come up with a definitive answer as to what comes first.

There is no doubt I am spoiled coming here everyday and reading all of this great work and interaction.

I know what you mean. The interaction makes the experience, and the fact that everyone here is mutually and team supportive is awesome. MHR has become my primary destination for Bronco news. See ya round, nutty ole Woodrow and grumpy ole Kisla. : D

Absolutely, the OL is the biggest key of all. I hope that Lichtensteiger has a future as a quality center. We’ve been spoiled by watching Tom Nalen and now Casey Weigmann manning the position for 15 years. Weigmann obviously can’t play forever, just like Nalen couldn’t. The youth of our tackles and Kuper are a boon, and hopefully Dennison will hang around for quite awhile longer.

…to look deeper, past one bad season and find the true worth underneath.

Yes, losing Turner and Dennison would have been a major, major setback. I am excited to see what sort of commitment McD has to the running game. Obviously, it will be different than the Broncos’ earlier iterations. But let’s hope it will be dominant as well!

I agree, McD’s Pats were 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts with 513. In fact, they were the only team to top 500 carries yet miss the playoffs – and as we know, they won 11 games and were a very good team.

I loved the comment on Floyd Little….he gets no respect for what he did when he did it. the biggest HOF snub in Broncos history…sorry Randy.

You said it a lot better than I could

Agree whole heartedly with your input. The fact that the Elway years were tough, based upon the peices of the puzzle, once it was all together, we made it. This is what I see Pat Bolin doing right now. Puting all the peices together!

I don’t think you’re in the minority here, and I certainly wouldn’t say TD could have won without Elway. Obviously, it was a symbiotic relationship. Elway brought 3 otherwise middling teams to the Super Bowl, which is what sets him apart for me. That’s what makes him the best ever. I’m not sure if you are responding more to my post or the comments that follow, but I could not agree more with you regarding the importance of the OL. My point was not that Denver needs an elite RB to be successful – I would submit that Mike Anderson in 2005, along with Tatum Bell were not elite runners. Anderson was when he first emerged, but not in ’05.

That said, I do not think the current group of runners will suffice. As I’ve mentioned plenty of times, the health histories of this stable of running backs does not exactly give me confidence. Yes, I love Hillis and the way he runs – but I don’t think he’s enough.

I think one name looms larger than any other in what happened to the OL – George Foster. If he had grown into what Shanny was hoping for when he drafted him (a classic Shanny reach that was questioned immediately), then I’d say the Broncos would have been in quite a different boat these last few years. But since he didn’t pan out, Denver had to devote a first-round choice on Clady. Obviously, we’re all happy to have Clady and Harris, but Foster was a costly mistake.

Personally, I feel that a great running game can make up for many shortcomings on defense. Certainly a respectable passing game needs to be present as well, but eating clock and grinding out long drives goes a long way towards winning. Elite passing teams that can’t run the ball (or choose not to) don’t usually win. I’m sure there are exceptions, there always are. But the ‘07 Pats are a perfect example, as were Marino’s Dolphins, the Oilers as you mentioned and Drew Brees’ Saints. They can set all the passing records they’d like, but they haven’t won a thing.

Every once in a while, I think everyone needs to pop in a tape/dvd and watch TD do his thing. That was true beauty – 4-5 yards every single carry, no matter what. He was remarkable – no, he didn’t twist and turn and dance his way for 80-yard touchdowns a la Barry Sanders, but he never took the 5-yard loss either.

I don’t know if ’09 is the year, with so much change and a very difficult schedule. But I will be rooting for those results just as hard as you!

Really, there’s no magic to these numbers. It’s a matter of taking the time to research season statistics and exploring box scores. Yes, I had to look up the carries in every regular-season game the Broncos played from ’95 to ’08. But it was fun and it was worth it.

Your support means a lot, MM. It’s a lot of fun to put these studies together, and it’s even more enjoyable to read everyone’s insightful comments. That’s what makes MHR the greatest!

Again, here we arrive at the chicken and the egg – running game or defense. I’m pretty sure you can’t win without both, although if I have to choose I’ll take the running game first, and the defense will follow. Why? Denver’s got the O-line to do it, I just don’t think there’s enough talent at RB. The defense needs a lot more help and that will take time.