Consistency of the Yards: Cap & Reload

by RiG on Feb 8, 2009 12:04 PM MST Comment 7 comments

Hello and Welcome to Consistency of the yards

(note: from now on I might abbreviate these post editions as COY or C.O.Y. or I might use it for stats, example his 3 yard COY for the game was 85% !!)

In this post You will find a breakdown for just aboot every Ball carrier we've had, except for WRs(TEs) of course. We will start off with the two backs that don't have enough carries for real consideration and then move on from there.

NEW from last time

I have developed a formula/algorithm that takes a lot of my info into account and in the end produces a single number which can be compared against others. This post will be in ascending order using this RB #. I'm still working on improvements, such as taking short yardage situations, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th down, how far is left to first down, score, goaline, recent tendencies into account but for the time being we will have to take for granted they average out.

Without further ado......(starting with INCOMPLETES in ascending order)

Ryan TORAIN ........RB# = 75.9...................INCOMPLETE under 20 carries; INACCURATE

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	64%	64%	43%	36%

PJ POPE ........RB# =105.8...................INCOMPLETE under 20 carries; INACCURATE

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	100%	85%	70%	54%

........................................................ STARTING FOR REAL NOW ........................................................

Tatum BELL........RB# = 71.2

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	74%	43%	35%	35%

Micheal PITTMAN........RB# = 77.6

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	72%	57%	47%	43%

Selvin YOUNG........RB# = 78.1

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	75%	59%	50%	44%

Andre HALL ........RB# = 82

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	79%	64%	56%	44%

Peyton HILLIS ........RB# = 89.5

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	79%	73%	66%	50%

Jay CUTLER ........RB# = 103

Yards	2	3	4	5
Consistency	88%	75%	75%	63%

Of course I'm only counting cutler on scrambling attempts and Designed ruing plays, but thats still a pretty darn good number!!

Well not much to conclude with, the numbers speak for themselves. Couple surprises in there. Who expected Hall to come out in second? I think Torain is better than where he's at right now and Pope is much lower(too few carries). If anyone should have had a chance to be higher it would be Young, who was used alot as a change of pace with easy yards ahead, I think he had to work the least for his yards but still came up short on the list. Hillis looks pretty bloody good with a 89.5# and Cutler proved he is god by breaking the 100# barrier :)

[Note by RiG, 02/07/09 6:22 PM PST ]-what is this??

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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I'd love a more detailed analysis of your algorithm

I thought this was very interesting and well done. It’s no surprise to me that Hillis graded out so well, but I have high hopes for Torain if he can stay healthy. Pope did surprisingly well in his situation – I’ll be interested to see if he can survive training camp.

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Feb 8, 2009 2:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Actually footbll outsiders...

already has some very good analysis and they take into account the opposing defense as well. You might want to check their stuff out as they have also done the work to statistically validate their measures.

www.footballoutsiders.com

by SlowWhiteGuy on Feb 8, 2009 3:08 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I have to check footballoutsiders out, but my internet is not working completely right now...

Anyways, do they do anything with consistency??

by RiG on Feb 8, 2009 6:47 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player’s consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn’t often get more. Success Rate is further explained here. It is not adjusted for opponent.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Feb 8, 2009 8:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

That is somewhat similar but not really what Im doing.

by RiG on Feb 8, 2009 8:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I too would like to see some more info

one way of showing us how the algorithm works, without actually spilling the beans (assuming you would like to keep it proprietary for now) would be to show us some comparisons of other players who there can be little doubt about their skills.

I would nominate: Deangelo Williams, Panthers; Adrian Peterson, Vikes; Ahman Green, Texans; Fred Taylor, Jax. These shoudl give us an idea of what a good player looks like versus an unproductive player (from 2008).

Concision in style, precision in thought, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 8, 2009 3:12 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

For the most part the algorithm just take into account all my COY ratings at different

places and produces one end number. If you look at the Consistency tables, the COY ratings increase with the RB#.
The scale of the Number is from 0 to I think 357.5~. Anyways better consistency for the most part means better RB number.

by RiG on Feb 8, 2009 6:44 PM MST reply actions 0 recs