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Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

1.  I decided to do a Pro Bowl edition of ST&NO, to mark the occasion of what I believe is the first time I've ever deemed it worth my time to watch the Pro Bowl live.  I expect that this will be the first of many for Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and it should have been the first for Ryan Clady also.

2.  Brandon Marshall dropped a TD pass on 4th down, and it really reminded me that he had some problems with that this season.  He really needs to work on catching the ball this offseason.  To his credit, he talked about working in the offseason to improve as a player, particularly in his quickness and explosiveness.

3.  Not to belabor the Ryan Clady-got-snubbed point (too much,) but the Cutler interception in the 4th quarter doesn't happen if Ryan is there to block DeMarcus Ware.  Michael Roos got beat like he stole something on that play.  Roos is good, and so is Joe Thomas, but Clady is better than both of them.  Jay should have taken the sack on that play, but Roos should have blocked his man.

4.  Good sideline reporting by Andrea Kremer, regarding the effects of the heat on Jay's diabetes.  She reported that his sugar was low at the beginning of the game, and they had to give him a lot of Gatorade to get where he should be.

5.  Casey Wiegmann had a nice game in his first Pro Bowl.  He really held up well against all the great interior players in the game.  As much as I love Tom Nalen, I think Casey was better this year than Tom has been since about 2004 or so.  I hope the Broncos give him a raise for this season to reward his performance, and ensure his return.

Star-divide

5.  Flozell Adams is a terrible football player, and it's a travesty that he made the Pro Bowl.  Right as I was typing this, he got a false start, and Freeney beet him for what should have been called a sack and a forced fumble near the end of the first half.  On 3rd and 28, Brees called for protection help on Freeney.  Flozell Adams, you are the weakest link.

6.  Does anybody who would likely be watching the Pro Bowl be very interested in seeing Enrique Iglesias and Ciara sing at halftime?  The NFL does a horrible job of selecting musical performers, the Boss's solid SB XLIII performance notwithstanding.

7.  Well, Jon Gruden agrees with me about Tim Tebow.  You're going to start hearing more of this as time goes on, and I think that he'll ultimately be the number 1 QB picked next season, ahead of Sam Bradford.  I expect a reverse-Leinart effect here.  Leinart would have probably been the top pick in 2005, but in coming back to school, gave scouts a chance to focus on his negatives, and he dropped to 10th overall in 2006. 

By coming back, Tebow is going to continue to improve, and he'll give scouts a chance to focus on his positives, and become more comfortable with him.  Florida is a heavy favorite to repeat as National Champions (the only terribly consequential player they lost was Percy Harvin, and they return all 11 defensive starters.)  Assuming they do repeat, Tebow would have 3 national titles on his resume, and he won a state title in Florida as a high schooler too.  There is no question that the guy makes football teams win.

The question that gets asked is, can he throw it well enough for the NFL?  I say yes, and Gruden and Bill Belichick do too.  Trust me, you're going to hear more and more of this as the season wears on, from more and more credible football people.  Eventually, even the McShay/Kiper/Mayock set will start saying it too.

If Jon Gruden gets an NFL job next year, which is likely if he wants one, watch for him to do everything he can to draft Tebow.  He's been looking for his new Rich Gannon for years, and hasn't found him.  Maybe Tebow is the guy Chucky can finally stay in love with.

8.  Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson are as good as gone from Kansas City.  Gonzalez will bring back a 3rd rounder, but the Chiefs will end up having to cut Johnson.  Nobody is going to give much of anything for that player, with that off-field history, at that age, and with that contract.  Once he's cut, I could see him as a Buccaneer, an Eagle or a Saint, with an incentive-heavy, low exposure contract.  He is on record, as to wanting to go to Dallas or the east coast.

9.  I think it was a shrewd move for Matt Cassel to immediately sign the franchise offer from the Patriots.  He is now guaranteed $14 Million+ for 2009, and if he's traded and signed by a new team, he'd be looking at an extension off of that amount, and not a new soup-to-nuts contract.  If I were his agent, I would insist that that $14 Million not be considered part of a guarantee package, even though it is guaranteed.  You're working off of an existing 1 year, $14 million deal.  If I am his agent, I would require an extension for 5 years and $70 million, with $30 million guaranteed.  That makes the whole deal 6 years, $84 million, with $44 million truly guaranteed.  If the acquiring team won't sign it, there is no further negotiation.  You have to give up a bunch of picks for a one-year rental at $14 million, period.  Cassel holds all of the leverage here, and really, he can't lose.  Even if he is back as Brady's backup, he gets paid, and the film on him is the same for next year.  Would the Patriots really franchise him again next year at $18 million?  Not too shabby for a lightly-used former backup.

10.  On a related note, I wouldn't trade very much for the guy.  He's not a franchise player, and the cost, in picks and dollars, is going to be way too high.  The Patriots are banking on somebody being stupid/desperate enough to overpay for him.  The MOST the Patriots would get out of me is 2 second round picks, like the Falcons got for Matt Schaub.  That's the most pertinent deal to work off of here, in terms of both the contract, and the package to acquire the guy from the Patriots.

3 recs  |  Comment 41 comments |

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I hope that is something coach works w/ Jay on during this off season.

He has to learn when to throw it away and re-group on the next play. He has such a mind set that he has to get it done all by himself on every play.

by ThorpeBroncosfan on Feb 9, 2009 6:32 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Lets not get too caught up in Jay's and BM's performance yesterday....

I have seen blogs in the MSM where fans are already panning and putting the boot into Jay and BM. Everyone take a breath….it was the frickin’ Pro Bowl and more chances are taken in this game. For example, BM’s drop was on 4th and goal when the AFC HAD A LEAD, and who saw Leon Washington’s lateral on the kick off.
This is a fun game, and seeing it as anything more than that is like assessing players from a flag football league.
We all know that Jay and BM have some work to do, they admit that themselves, but lets not put too much stock in an exhibition game.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Feb 9, 2009 6:58 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree you can't take the pro-bowl serious but that play was not the only time I have seen Jay do that.

All I’m saying is I would like to see him learn to throw it away instead of always trying to force it. Maybe he deciced its the pro bowl I might as well toss it out there but there are times when he has done it during the season.

by ThorpeBroncosfan on Feb 9, 2009 10:55 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

WIegmann and Marshall thoughts...

As has been discussed at MHR, it was discovered that Marshall’s feeling is coming back in his arm, but slowly. I’m not worried about drops here and there. He keeps improving.

Wiegmann will likely return for one year, buying us time at OC.

Great write up as always!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Feb 9, 2009 9:20 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

It's the pro-bowl

so I’m not upset by guys just going out, having fun and trying to make some plays (the fumblerooski was great to see). That said, Marshall needs to catch the damn ball :)

Anywho, I don’t think it was Roos who was in when Jay did his Jake Plummer impersonation, I thought it was Jake Long? I wasn’t really paying attention though. The whole game I was only really looking at 3 players with horse’s heads on their helmets. But if it was Long, it just going to show you that Clady should have been in there over him.

Owning the Patriots since September 9, 1960

by Darin H on Feb 9, 2009 9:36 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Nice post

I can’t really get into the pro-bowl, I watched one series and turned it off, you can tell most of the guys could care less about it. Interesting musing on Cassel, the funny thing is that a team that needs a QB generally needs other pieces as well, so his play will definately decline. I could see him ending up in Minnesota, my hope is KC is stupid and trades for him, that will keep that franchise down a few more years (IMO that is what will happen with Piolli calling the shots).

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 9, 2009 10:18 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I'm curious.

You seem to be saying that Piolli isn’t going to succeed at K.C. I know a lot of the self proclaimed “experts” think he’s something special. Why do you disagree?

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Feb 9, 2009 1:28 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying he won't

But I think if his model is I will make KC into New England west and start by getting what he may see as his guy in Cassell to run the show in KC may be somewhat rose colored glasses. KC did the same thing with Elvis Grback in that he was a back-up in SF and thought to be the next Montana/Young and then he never really lived up to those expectations, I think Cassel is a similar player, someone who can do well with a strong supporting cast, but really is not that QB that will get you over the hump. I just think if Piolli invests too much in getting Cassel, then he will be probably setting the Chiefs back farther since they won’t go out and get a real franchise QB, I think Cassel could do very well on a team he is expected to manage that has star players, but asking him to be the face of the franchise will be the wrong way to go IMO. But I think Piolli may say that since he knows Cassel that is who he wants.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 9, 2009 2:16 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Broncoman

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Feb 9, 2009 3:44 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Piolli=overhyped

Is there such a thing as a Playstation 3 Anonymous? I can't seem to stop thinking about or playing COD 4 and COD 5. I hear this is quite normal for a teenager, but I haven't been a teenager since Bill Clinton was frolicking with interns.

by Tim Lynch on Feb 9, 2009 2:23 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with...

everything except Tim Tebow getting picked before Sam Bradford. Tim Tebow will not be the #1 QB picked next year. He will have to improve greatly to be a better QB then Sam Bradford. Tebow is a better all around player then Bradford and I think Tim Tebow is great college football player but he does not have the skills to be an elite QB at the next level. You have to be crazy to think he will be a better QB at the next level. Bradford has all the skills the be a great QB at the next level and will be the first QB taken in the draft next year. He has a good chance to be the 1st pick in the draft next year.

by gnarlybroncodude on Feb 9, 2009 11:30 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not crazy...

and I’m not really crazy about Bradford, as a prospect. He has below-average velocity for an NFL starter. He would have ultimately gone behind Stafford and Sanchez this year, based on talent, and he faces a Leinart effect this season. Bradford is just a guy, who benefits from a lot of talent around him.

The thing with Tebow is, no QB has ever been like him before. He’s truly the first of his kind, so it would take a smart and flexible coach to maximize his talents. Usually, this “good college player” stuff goes to players who have an athletic limitation, or a weak arm. Tebow has neither thing. All he lacks is exposure to a conventional pro-style offense, and there’s no reason for a guy like him to ever play in a timing-based West Coast scheme. You build around his talents, and you compete to win championships.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Feb 9, 2009 12:02 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh Man...

As a Gators fan, I say “thank you”.

by ejruiz on Feb 9, 2009 1:41 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Hasn't Bradford declared?

Oops – strike above. I thought Bradford declared, but either way, I believe Tebow has more pro football tools than Bradford. And, I thought the Natl. Championship game was demonstration #1 that Bradford should go back to school for another year. Nice column Ted!

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Feb 9, 2009 2:54 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

It was only pro-bowl, but

I think our two Broncos lost this game for AFC… If Marshall catches that 4th down ball, AFC is up another 7 pts, or if Cutler does not throw that ill-advised pass, NFC might not have scored there…

Again it was just pro-bowl but I hated the reason for this loss being two of our Broncos that we love and adore… Not to mention it also bit the AFC player some money too :)

by isiddiqi on Feb 9, 2009 11:57 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

that was my reaction, too

Sure, it’s a meaningless game played for entertainment value, with a lot of changed rules designed to protect the players, and overall the players tend to let up a bit.

However, I don’t think B Marsh or Jay were letting up at all — I think they were fighting hard. And I think they were under pressure to perform before the eyes of the best in the league. Manning’s pass to Brandon in the end zone was not an easy ball to catch, but that is one that Brandon catches all the time. What bothered me a little more was Cutler’s last series (at least the last one I watched), which seemed to show a guy who was erring on the side of throwing the ball hot and hard vs. putting a little patient “touch” on it.

Again, I wouldn’t throw these out of proportion, as both guys did make some clutch plays during the game (Marshall’s reception on the 5 and Cutler’s nice pickup on 4th down). However, I was hoping to see them play a little better on, well, maybe not the big stage but certainly in front of their peers.

Just my two bits.

Win or lose, do it fairly. -- Knute Rockne

by broncosmontana on Feb 9, 2009 1:21 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

A quick thought on Marshall

I haven’t looked on any numbers, but I would guess that Marshall is one of the most targeted recievers in the league. Often-targeted recievers will also drop more passes. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal.

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Feb 9, 2009 12:59 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Wes Welker had 4 drops out of 149 passes catching 74.5% of balls thrown his way.
Eddie Royal had 3 drops out of 129 passes catching 70.5% of balls thrown his way.
Andre Johnson had 5 drops in 170 passes catching 67.6%
Houshmandzadeh had 5 drops in 137 passes and caught 67.2%
Marshall had 11 drops in 181 passes, caught 57.5%

by Douglas A. Lee on Feb 9, 2009 1:12 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Intersting stats

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 9, 2009 2:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Was the numbness a factor?

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Feb 9, 2009 3:45 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I think so!

I cut off a finger on a table saw and two other fingers were involved! Some of that fealing is still gone from those fingers and that has been three years ago!

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Feb 9, 2009 5:07 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I can attest to that

I nearly sliced off my thumb three years ago, it still is numb and I don’t have much sensation in it other than when I clip my finger nail it freaking feels like I am cutting into the bone (very weird what nerves do).

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 10, 2009 3:18 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah..my dad had his index finger blown off by a shotgun blast...

no worries though, he shot back and drove the a-holes out of his living room….firing his pistol with his middle finger. True story. I have the essay I wrote about his experience if anyone is interested. lol

I’ll trade you my story for your story… ;-)

Is there such a thing as a Playstation 3 Anonymous? I can't seem to stop thinking about or playing COD 4 and COD 5. I hear this is quite normal for a teenager, but I haven't been a teenager since Bill Clinton was frolicking with interns.

by Tim Lynch on Feb 10, 2009 11:01 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Where in the world did you come up with those stats, because working the #'s on my calculator, just doesn't add up!

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Feb 9, 2009 5:18 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I looked them up here…

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/index.asp

It’s STATS LLC, which most of us used to know as STATS, INC.

by Douglas A. Lee on Feb 10, 2009 8:17 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Now that the Pro-Bowl is over, I can't wait until March...the unofficial start of the NFL Season.

You know, with free agency and all that. Can’t wait to see who we sign, if anyone. I’m starting to think that the Broncos should build from the draft and not FA.

by broncoholic on Feb 9, 2009 5:16 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

+1

Is there such a thing as a Playstation 3 Anonymous? I can't seem to stop thinking about or playing COD 4 and COD 5. I hear this is quite normal for a teenager, but I haven't been a teenager since Bill Clinton was frolicking with interns.

by Tim Lynch on Feb 9, 2009 5:33 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

As an equally dedicated two-sport fan

this is the wilderness for me. In between the Super Bowl and the start of spring training… life has no meaning.

Blast and botheration.

by Silverblood on Feb 10, 2009 10:18 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely!

Thankfully, we now have MHR – plus my wife has turned me into a big college hoops fan, so that certainly helps me…

by Douglas A. Lee on Feb 10, 2009 10:33 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

4 drops out of 100 means that the player caught 96 % of his passes. What is 4 drops out of 149? 4 out of 150 = 97% caught. 4 out of 200………..98% Now let the fractions begin!

11 drops out of 100 = 89 caught. 11 out of 181? What is that %age? Homework.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Feb 9, 2009 5:40 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

no that is not what it means.

drops are when the ball is catchable and the WR just plain drops it or screws it up. The other incomplete passes could be pass defenses by CBs, errant throws, ect…drops are drops. BMarsh was targeted 181 times but dropped like 15 balls…the other 50 passes were bad throws, pass defenses, ect. :)

Is there such a thing as a Playstation 3 Anonymous? I can't seem to stop thinking about or playing COD 4 and COD 5. I hear this is quite normal for a teenager, but I haven't been a teenager since Bill Clinton was frolicking with interns.

by Tim Lynch on Feb 9, 2009 6:04 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

so if BMarsh caught 102 balls and dropped 11, then he caught like 92% of his catchable passes.

I’m not sure why pass defensed or errant throws count against a WR but they apparently do. The drop percentage should be counted against your actual catches…not the number of passes thrown your way.

Is there such a thing as a Playstation 3 Anonymous? I can't seem to stop thinking about or playing COD 4 and COD 5. I hear this is quite normal for a teenager, but I haven't been a teenager since Bill Clinton was frolicking with interns.

by Tim Lynch on Feb 9, 2009 6:06 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

although

it would be pertinent to understanding how a receiver fights for 50 50 passes and how well he runs routes, both of which significantly impact whether he catches the ball or not. routes were a problem a few times for BM this season as i remember…

"I want this team to be tough, smart and prepared to play well under pressure...Everybody here in this organization is going to be held accountable to do their job — their piece of the puzzle to make this team a competitor for a championship every season." J-Mac

by denver_diaspora on Feb 9, 2009 10:39 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

11 divided by 181 = .06. That means that Marshal caught 94% of his passes this year. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Feb 9, 2009 6:04 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Brandon's numbers

I have a post coming later this week, but just for this discussion:

Marshall… was 2nd in the NFL in the receiving category of Passes not Caught with 77. To keep this in perspective, though, he led the league in Passes Targeted at 181. His total catches numbered 104. He dropped 3 passes, one of two of the top 25 receivers to have more than 2. Randy Moss was the other.

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Feb 9, 2009 6:21 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

WR Numbers

If there is still confusion about nyc’s numbers, it’s just the percentage of balls he caught out of how many times he was thrown to. 104 rec / 181 targets = 57.5%. It has nothing to do with the actual number of drops they had…but if you do the math there Marshall still had more than double the % of drops as those other guys. Hopefully he can fix that.

Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage

by TD4HOF on Feb 9, 2009 6:30 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Here is Marshall’s page on STATS LLC…

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=7868&team=07

As some have noted, you don’t have to literally drop the ball as a WR for the incomplete pass to be your fault. Obviously, Cutler is to blame for many of Marshall’s incomplete passes – but I’m sure there were times when Marshall just didn’t get his hands on the ball. Keep in mind – if it goes right through his hands without him touching the ball, that’s not a drop.

by Douglas A. Lee on Feb 10, 2009 8:22 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

All I know is...

Manning was joking before the game about wanting to nab B Marsh for the Colts. So I’m feeling pretty happy he didn’t reel that one in in the end zone! You don’t want him, Peyton!! Now go about your business…. ; )

Win or lose, do it fairly. -- Knute Rockne

by broncosmontana on Feb 9, 2009 7:09 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

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