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Draft trade values severly overvalued.

Below is a link to a fascinating study done in 2007 for those of you with a 1/2 day to waste regarding what a couple of guys did researching the who draft trade value chart often referenced in the NFL draft circles.  What this study shows is how teams over value high picks versus lower round picks.  And that the trade value board established by the Cowboys in the 90's is way too skewed towards higher round selections for value.  Thaler and Massey Study  It is a very good read (52 pages).  And though I don't want the Broncos to trade out of the 12th pick if Maualuga is on the board, it does give some good justification for trading down with teams that over-value a top 15 pick.  

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Fascinating

I read a similar (though not as thorough) study a year ago, by footballoutsiders. I guess the plan is to:

a) trade out of round one (or at least to the very bottom of it),

b) trade away existing but underproducing and expensive players for picks, and finally

c) trade away picks this year for higher picks next year.

These are the makings of a draft, that will give management failing grades in most MSM report cards.

by Jeeeeens on Feb 9, 2009 4:44 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

The MSM didn't particularly care for our haul last season...

On the field, it was unquestionably the best class in the NFL.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Feb 9, 2009 9:51 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I think Kiper gave us a C last year

Shows why you should ever listen to kiper

by purplesocks on Feb 10, 2009 5:19 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

After the draft, it was KC by a mile

Strangely, I haven’t heard anyone either support that assertion or refute their earlier error. I’ll just sit here and wait for our apologies to roll in…

Dig me out after the draft and thaw me out for OTAs…..

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Feb 10, 2009 10:13 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I added this article to the MHR chart for point values

Nice find Broncoman. I haven’t read the whole thing, but there is no doubt they have a strong case. Anything that spawned from Jerry Jones should be called into question regularly…

Concision in style, precision in thought, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 9, 2009 6:40 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

How do you find this stuff?

This is great reading, 50 some pages or not.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Feb 9, 2009 7:15 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Killer find B-man!!!

I’ve felt for a long time, that if a team doesn’t have an obvious targeted pick they should trade down. Just skimmed the article but it seems to confirm it.

Why oh why do fans waste their time with ESPN when there’s infinitely better stuff here!

by SlowWhiteGuy on Feb 9, 2009 9:02 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Thank you for this excellent anlysis

One of the many points it engendered was the bizarre compensation system inherent within the drafting process. It’ has been, and conintues to be, utterly irrational. We benefited from that last year, although we have fallen before it in the past.

I was thinnking of the run on O line players last year. It started with Jake Long, who is a good player. But his compensation is vastly over that of Clady. Is he a better performer? Certainly not, statistically. But he is more highly paid, and I appreciate that fact that his draft status lead us to take Clady, who was my own (unscientific!) 1st choice.

KC took a flyer un an unproven lineman who has worked out – sort of. Branden Albert flew up the draft board and is only adequate, from what I can find. He’s overpaid. Glenn Dorsey? We’ll find out in 2 years, perhaps. Chris Wlliams and Gosder Chelius ended up pushing Jeff Otah to Carolina, where he fought though injury and became a solid player – some early mocks had him in the high first picks. What happened?

The process is a wonderful crapshoot with a life of its own. Derrick Harvey and Vernon Gholston are suddenly franchise players. They flew up the boards late – I never quite figured out why. The compensation we would pay these players is rarely in line with there production, and almost never their early production. Yet, that’s the system.

I appreciate even more the interactions of the Goodman crew. They knew, somehow, that Cutler was a far better QB than Young (shudder) or Leinart (oy). They nailed Clady, who by the grace of the strange system fell to us. Perhaps they will do equally well this year. There are those who have an eye for pro football talent, and that defies statistics and requires the knowledgeable study of film.

Or, perhaps the statistical fact that we can do far better with a few higher picks than one very high one will come into it. I only know that watching the spectacle is at times just as remarkable and enjoyable as watching the games.

There is a lot of wisdom in knowing that we don’t know, but the entire system is in place, in part, to tell us that despite our eyes, the scouts can assure us that the Emperor’s new clothes are remarkably beautiful. Great find, Broncoman!

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Feb 10, 2009 2:47 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I had read the article two years ago when it came out, but found it didn't get a lot of coverage in the MSM

I really was amazed by how teams shoot themselves in the foot year in and year out by staying put at the upper level of the draft and not being able or willing to deal, I also find it amazaing how teams over value the picks in the top 5/10 versus later guys.

I have been impressed by the Goodmans in 06 and 08, but not so much in 07 when I think we overpaid for Moss (I really thought we could of stayed put and got him or Reggie Nelson) and what we payed for Marcus Thomas. I think Thomas may prove to be the better deal in the long term, but we gave up a lot of players for him. But we did get Harris, which was a great pick.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 10, 2009 10:49 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

But I did hear that Jarvis was a Shanahan decision based on film he was given, so I’ll give the Goodman’s a ’Maybe" on him.

I wonder if the MSM didn’t talk about this because it is rational, detailed and contradicts the essence of their (and the scouts) jobs? It’s a doozy

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Feb 10, 2009 11:55 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, would definately put Mel Kiper out of a job (which wouldn't be a bad thing)

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 10, 2009 1:45 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

reading the numbers

I breezed through most of the article, and I’ll have to re-read it again later.

There’s one point that should be made — the value (in terms of performance) goes up the higher the pick is, so the problem (so to speak) is not with high picks but with a rookie salary structure that gives the highest picks more than they’re worth. A re-working of the CBA (and value chart) that flattens the salary structure for high picks could eliminate this problem.

This is a subject that’s dear to my heart, that is — decision theory. And expectations of superbly rational GMs making infinitely wise decisions are unrealistic. Moreover, mixing a few overpaid but highly performing draftees and FAs into the team’s mix may be the only way to go. The higher surplus value of 2nd rounders versus 1st rounders is a statement about a higher cost-benefit ratio; not a statement of lower benefit bottom line.

We were lucky to pick Clady rather than Baker, but there’s a message here. We might be better off building depth through relatively high picks rather than trying to the find the magic bullet by hunting for the next superstar. And, perhaps more than anything else, for all those posters obsessed with picking the winners and losers in the next draft, a little humility might be in order. Overconfidence is one of the most common cognitive biases, and it leads otherwise bright people to overestimate their abilities to predict.

by Colinski on Feb 10, 2009 5:00 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

Very well said

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Feb 11, 2009 11:39 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said, Ski

A part of me keeps wondering who we would have taken had Clady been gone…..

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Feb 10, 2009 10:15 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

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