Just a quick look at stats.

by amirebram on Mar 10, 2009 11:39 AM MDT Comment 11 comments

There has been a lot of talk about Cutler's decision making ability on the field and the "risk" of having a QB with his aggressive mentality (when it comes to making passes). Well here is a quick look:

Brady: his first 3 years in the NFL:

2000: only 1 game

2001: 264 of 413 for 64%, 2843 yards, 18TD to 12INT (3% int/attempt ratio)

2002: 373 of 601 for 62%, 3764 yards, 28TD to 14INT (2.3% int/attempt ratio)

Culter: first 3 years

2006: five games

2007:297 of 467 for 63.6%, 3497 yards. 20TD to 14INT (3% int/attempt)

2008: 384 of 616 for 62.3%, 4526 yards. 25TD to 18INT (3% int/attempt)

Not as different as you might imagine in terms of risk taking; and Jay's overall numbers are better. Really, given a more reliable running game or a little better defense to keep the games close, Cutler wouldn't have been forced to take as many chances as he did.

Pats had an amazing defense, and their wining was as much a product of their D as it was Brady's game. Big Ben didn't win any Super Bowls on his own either.

Winning is a team thing, and Cutler isn't the "gunslinger" people like to label him as. He tried to carry the team on his back, and he paid with some INTs. Would it have been better to punt and loose? I think the fixation on "performance" in any given category is wrong. It depends on your objective. Playing it safe wouldn't have won us any more games. We just would have lost in a different fashion.

I take no sides when there is an argument in the team. I just get annoyed when we repeat media catch words like risk taker or decision making ...

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Nice analysis...

But what the statistics don’t reflect are a number of very obvious errors in decision making by Cutler. Too often he locks into one receiver from the snap, then forces the ball into them. The Hockalie play would have been a moot point had he not thrown an int to Cason the previous drive. Against Buffalo he telegraphed a pass theat was picked off in the red-zone when driving for the tying score. In the last game agfainst SD, Denver was actually hanging in with SD until Cutler forced a pass into coverage for an int.

Yes, with better defense he “might” not press as hard, but even in games where the Broncos had a lead, he locks on his receivers and forces the ball too many times. Hopefully with good coaching he will overcome this tendancy, but it is a problem.

BTW: Can you name any of Brady’s receivers during his first three years? He never was throwing to anyone the caliber of Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, or Stokely.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 10, 2009 11:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Sure i can

Terry Glenn, David Patton, Troy Brown, Dion Branch, David Givens. Quality, 2001 WR’s not to mention his recieving RB’s. I think its a very good comparison.

by Kdo09 on Mar 10, 2009 12:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Kdo09, the fact that you have a terrific memory is beside SWG’s point. Would you take any of the receivers you listed ahead of Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal? I wouldn’t.

by Douglas A. Lee on Mar 10, 2009 12:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't...

being a snot. Just didn’t have time for a real post. What I was trying to get at ,and was illustrated nicely by amirebram, is that Cutler and Brady can actually be compared. That alone is huge. they are drastically different QB’s but simply being able to be in the same catagory as Brady at this early point in his career is exemplary. Lets give the kid a few seasons and watch what happens. I feel pretty good that he WILL work out some of the “forcing” issues, but being blessed with natural ability to make throws that most people can’t will always be a plus. Sure he’s gonna get burned on occasion. But even last year, there were definately more throws where I sat back and said “wow, he should have been able to do that” than ones that made me put my face in my hands.

by Kdo09 on Mar 10, 2009 1:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well.

As far as I can recall Brady made some pretty dumb plays too. From his 4INT game against Denver to his horrible play for most of their first Super Bowl. It’s just been a while, and we can’t recall since the more polished Brady is what we all remember seeing these past couple of years. What sets Brady apart is staying steady in the pocket in the face of pressure—Not that he can’t be rattled, but he is much better than most QBs.

Brady had his share of good receivers. He has always had Troy Brown, and he had a couple of 100 catch seasons back then. David Patten was good for 50 catches. Deon Branch had a really good rookie season with 50 catches in 2002. It was in the 05 and 06 season that his receivers sucked, and Brady didn’t win any Super Bowls in those seasons.

There is always the argument that Brady makes his receivers look better than they really are. Well, have you considered that maybe the same is true of Cutler? Marshall and Royal haven’t played with any other QB’s in the NFL, so you can’t tell. But what you can see is that neither were top notch in college. 2nd round and 4th round picks. Shanny admits that he thought Marshall could be turned into a TE, and he was surprised by how good Royal really was.

All that said, I agree that Cutler is still a raw & rough diamond that needs work. But I don’t think he is a flawed diamond, as some people claim.

Go So Cal. I am the bigger one.

by amirebram on Mar 10, 2009 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

you make a good point about

Cutler possibly making his receivers look better. And yes, Brady has had some awful games. Every QB has games where they’re just off their game. A four int game doesn’t cost you any more than a three int game. What concerns me about Cutler is that even when he’s on, he still locks onto his receivers too much and he unnecessarily forces the ball even in games where he is in control.

A comparison comes to mind. John Elway vs. Brett Favre. Early in his career Elway also was reckless, forced too many passes and had some attrocious games. But Elway always had an ability to refocus his game and play flawlessly when it mattered. And later in his career John learned to force less and let the game come to him. Brett Favre was a gunslinger too. Favre never developed the discipline to manage a game when all it needed was managing. How many times did Favre kill his team when they needed him most (a playoff game to the Eagles comes to mind here)?

Cutler may be the most physically gifted QB in a decade, maybe more. The question is whether he will mature like Elway or continue to be reckless like Favre. Only time will tell.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 10, 2009 12:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet...

Favre still won a SuperBowl and will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I think I’d take that from Jay.

by BroncoJeff on Mar 10, 2009 2:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes,

but he had the #1 defense in the NFL when he won (and lost). I’d rather have Elway. And compare what Favre put GB fans through vs Elways retirement decision.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 10, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

good post, but i think numbers in general can be misleading

Let me first say that I think Jay Cutler is a Top 5 QB in the NFL and I’m confident he’ll bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to Denver. That being said, I think his stats are inflated for various reasons.

First, the running game last season was non-existent, a myth. Obviously any offense has to pass without a decent ground attack, and the Broncos were no exception. Also, with the D being as bad as it was, the Broncos often found themselves down early and playing catch-up. It’s hard not to throw when you have points to make-up early. Finally, Cutler was throwing to 2 excellent wideouts in Marshall and Royal. They made his job easier for sure.

I just think statistics can be misleading. You can probably find just as influential stats proving that Cutler is a trash QB, but they wouldn’t make that true. There would be no need for a site like this to provide insight into football if all you needed to do was look at a few numbers to make a judgement.

"The fish who keeps on swimming is the first to chill down stream."-311

by PhillyBroncoFan on Mar 10, 2009 2:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else think we've been spoiled?

Besides the absolute cream of the crop like Brady/Manning (and I’ll throw in Roethlisberger since he has the rings, although he has greatly benefited from playing from behind the Steel Curtain), how many other QB’s put up the kind of numbers Cutler has in his first 2/3 years? Just because he didn’t come in as a rookie and throw 3 times more picks than TD’s we expect him to be an elite QB already. I for one am thrilled with how he’s played so early in his career. Of course he still has a lot to learn and has a lot of room to grow, but I think that he has a really good chance of being in the same class as Brady and Manning by the time he reaches his prime.

Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage

by TD4HOF on Mar 10, 2009 5:21 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Impressive

I agree with much that has been said. It’s obvious to see that Jay is a heckuva QB. As such, that’s why teams are open to picking him up on their roster. He’s a franchise QB. That being said, I believe that once we have a solidified running game and a top 15 defense, we’ll see better decisions come from Jay. He has a ton of growing to do and shows improvement each year. Like many fans, I’m not too pleased with the latest goings-on in Denver. However, I believe McD knows what he’s doing, and I believe Cutler has some growing up to do both on and off the field. My thing is, I totally want Cutler as our franchise QB. My desire is for him to step up to this challenge. Show the fans, his teammates, and coaches he can handle being the face of the Broncos. We know he’s got the skills, now its time to see the heart and dedication. I’d like to see people back off in molding him into the next John Elway. He’s not Elway. And I’m thankful for that. He’s his own man. He’s Jay Cutler…so I say let the guy become what he is to become…so long as it’s with the Broncos!!!

Romans 5:8

by BronconNC on Mar 12, 2009 8:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs