To all of you who loves footballstats!

by Claus Vestergaard on Mar 23, 2009 6:07 PM MDT

I check out the blog over at pro-football-reference.com on an almost hourly basis, and today the great Chase Stuart tossed an extremely well-written post. He basically tries to acces Jay Cutlers value in case of a trade, or in other words; on-field production potential. He does it by cooking up a nice little set of stats and metrics, compares Cutlers output to other players at the position, and comes to a very interesting conclusion.

I should say that this becomes pretty math-nerdy, but i don't think the post will suffer from you skipping the paragraphs with all the technicalities.

I'm just urging you to spend 15 minutes of your busy day to read this - allthough I don't think it will make you feel any better about the mess in Dove Valley. Or Maybe it will, if you're the kind of guy who likes multiple first day draftpicks.

And now a goodnight from Denmark!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Love PFR

Such a fantastic site and a great blog. Glad to see others read it as well.

by studbucket on Mar 23, 2009 7:21 PM MDT reply actions

Great post!

One interesting thing. The methodology that Stuart uses emphasizes yards and touchdowns while ignoring wins. As a result Cutler actually ranks much higher than Elway at the same point in their careers despite that fact that, at the same point in their careers, Elway had a winning record and had taken the Broncos to the playoffs twice while cutler has a losing record and has never been to the playoffs.

Just food for thought.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 24, 2009 7:42 AM MDT reply actions

Exactly - Cutler shouldn't suffer from the fact that his defenses has been horrible

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Mar 24, 2009 8:47 AM MDT up reply actions

I agree that Cutler

should be evaluated based on his performance, BUT winning games is what the QB is paid to do. While his defense let him down several times, Cutler was his own worst enemy in several games as well.

To me, the single most important factor in evaluating a QB is how well they perform when the game is on the line. Elway may have been the best ever at that key elelment (although Montana & Staubach have legit claims as well). Cutler so far has been so-so, e.g. great against Cleveland a dud against Buffalo.

I don’t mean this as a slam against Cutler. Just to point out that statistics don’t always show the whole truth. At this point in their respective careers I would take Elway over Cutler any day despite the fact that Stuart’s statistics say otherwise.

At this point in his career Cutler looks a lot like Drew Brees, great statistical numbers, but he comes up short in must win situations. Hopefully with a new system and better coaching he will improve. For now, despite all the tools, the jury is still out.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 24, 2009 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions

Excuse me for flaming a bit here.

I really believe you’re wrong!

BUT winning games is what the QB is paid to do.

No. He is paid to contribute at his maximum abillity thus putting his team in the best possible position to win. He isn’t paid to win games any more than a cornerback or a tackle is.

To me, the single most important factor in evaluating a QB is how well they perform when the game is on the line.

Thats a fair point. I’m just not willing to, by default, taking a guy who’s great in the 4th quarter over a guy who’s great in the other 3.

Cutler so far has been so-so, e.g. great against Cleveland a dud against Buffalo.

Basing that on two games, off the top of your head, is just nuts. Remember Cutlers first meeting with Buffalo? In his 6th game of his career no less. I’m just saying that Cutler wasn’t the only one who played badly against Buffalo. In reverse, against Cleveland: If Royal doesn’t take advantage of a mishap in the Cleveland secondary, we would have lost that game, and people would’ve been faulting Cutler for the loss because of his second quarter interception. All I’m saying is, that it’s tiny, tiny details in games, that changes our perception of a player.

Just to point out that statistics don’t always show the whole truth.

Of course they don’t. I think, by the way, that Stuart points that out himself. While they don’t tell the hole truth they tell more than some random guys’ accesments of a QB’s swagger or pedigree.

At this point in their respective careers I would take Elway over Cutler any day despite the fact that Stuart’s statistics say otherwise.

There is no way you or I could ever say something honest about that. Remember, we already know that Elway turned out to be a top-5 QB of all time! Cutler might become so too. All Chase is saying is that the, statistical, probabillity of Cutler becoming HoF-worthy is bigger than Elway’s at the same point of his career.

At this point in his career Cutler looks a lot like Drew Brees, great statistical numbers, but he comes up short in must win situations.

Again. Had Brees been blessed with an average defense, he would never have been in a clutch 4th-quarter situation – ‘cause he’d already be up 31-10 by then. Instead the score is 31-34 and he becomes the scapegoat because of a last second 4th-down incomplete. The year he, in fact, had a decent defense, he took the never-ever-winning Saints to the NFC championship game!

Sorry to flame, but you struck a nerve, thats all.. Nothing personal at all!

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Mar 24, 2009 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions

No offense taken but consider this...

Why does everyone love Brady and Manning but very few care about Mark Bulger?

e.g. means such as, but if you want to go over his entire career, I think you’ll still have to conclude he has been erratic: unstoppable some games and very pedestrian in others.

I was just pointing out that, based on Stuart’s analysis, Elway does not rank very highly (in his first few years and for his entire career). Those who think Elway was a great QB may want to take Stuart’s analysis with a grain of salt.

Actually I would still say, based on their first three years, I would take Elway over Cutler any day. From the beginning, despite some very laughable mistakes, Elway showed an ability to take over games late and lead the team to victory. While I have seen flashes of that from Jay, I just don’t see it with the consistency that Elway showed.

Um, check your statistics. While he was in SD, Brees had one of the better defenses in the league. He just didn’t (doesn’t) seem to have that ability to will his team to victory.

With a better system and better coaching Cutler may rise to the top, but none of us know that for sure.

As I said to begin, great post. I just think there is some context needed to Stuart’s analysis. There seems to be a lack of any correlation to wins and playoffs which would validate his numbers.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 24, 2009 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions