MOCK III
by Colinski on Mar 25, 2009 2:00 PM MDT
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PrintPost-Supplementary Version.
I decided to revamp the MOCK to take into account the revised order of the Broncos' draft, which is now different from the 4th round on.
I also decided to explore a new route in the 1st round, which I'll explain when I make that pick.
Added note: I'll be using DrafTek's Big Board once again, because it's one of the few comprehensive Big Boards on the web. Picks are once again on a BPA basis and deviations are explained when made, which will be because of positional consideration.
Finally, DrafTek's Big Board rankings may not be accurate so the final product is merely an exercise in drafting. It's not necessarily a prediction of what the Broncos would do. A few of the picks will reflect my differences with their BB, and there will be some thought given to positional demand, which isn't accurately reflected in DrafTek's Big Board.
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#12 - Malcolm Jenkins (CB/FS) --------- REACH: ( + ) 4 *
#48 - Ron Brace (DT) ----------------------- REACH: ( -1)
#79 - Andy Levitre (OG) -------------------- REACH: ( -1)
#114 - Alex Magee (DT/DE34) ------------ REACH: ( -7)
#140 - Brandon Gibson (WR-F) --------- REACH: ( 0)
#149 - Jasper Brinkley (ILB) -------------- REACH: ( -9)
#185 - Joe Burnett (CB) +KR) ------------ REACH: ( 0)
#225 - Everette Pedescleaux (DE34) -- REACH: ( -5)
#235 - Tiquan Underwood (WR) --------- REACH: ( -5)
DISCUSSON
(PICK 1) - I broke one of the rules immediately, when I took Jenkins, who's higher on the board. He should be available because of positional demand for pass rushers. I also wanted to mix up the selections and not repeat earlier MOCK results. This allowed me to explore a different path.
Jenkins has a very high floor and could be used immediately at FS or could become an eventual replacement at CB. He's a classic 'falling value' whose stock has dropped but still retains great value.
It may seem odd to pick a DB considering our needs, but he's a very safe pick who fits our future needs -- a team building rationale.
(PICK 2) - Brace (NT) is a pick that's dictated by position. Positional impact and team needs support this choice, and it also frees us from having to stretch at a later point. He's also justifiable on BPA logic; only a reach of -1.
I strongly considered Wood (OC ) here. NT is the only position where I couldn't deviate from positional need. If it had been any other defensive position, I would have allowed a breakthough for the OL, which I consider a need. This crop is also has tremendous opportunities to fill that need, which won't necessarily recur. However, there are chances later in this draft, unlike the situation at NT.
Also considered were the Safeties, but the choice Jenkins changed the need status here.
(PICK 3) - Levitre (OG) was a good choice here. He's a good fit as a ZBer, and is the type of OL that looks to be a good fit for our OL. This pick met my criterion of providing a starter quality backup to OG, and he's versatile enough that he may allow us to reduce of OL numbers and carry players elsewhere on the roster.
There were a number of others players that offered tempting alternatives, however. There were CBs (Francies, Sherrod Martin), there was a SS (Vaughn), several WRs, and even another OL (Luigs OC).
I wouldn't argue against some of the WRs but there was a logic behind finding an OL at this high level. WR could still be addressed later, since starter-quality was less of a concern there, and there's also greater depth throughout the position. It's still a telling argument for anyone who prefers adding at the WR position.
(PICK 4) - Magee (DE) was also a highly appropriate pick in several ways. I went in hoping to concentrate on DE. NT was a higher need but might not be in the cards, so I was hoping to do what I could, that is -- work on the DL position that I could fix.
Magee is versatile and one of a small group of quality DE34 prospects in the draft, so he's actually a very good find considering how few higher ranked DE34s there are.
I considered picking Ricky Jean-Francois at the point, who's less of stretch. He isn't listed as a 3-4 candidate, but he appears to be a possibility at DE34. The measurables are clearly there but I have some fear that he's an underacheiver who wouldn't fit with the attitude type we've been emphasizing lately. I strongly agree with this new philosophy but that's not included in the information on the Big Board.
Other possibilities -- WRs, DBs, etc. Please peruse the choices near #114 and see if you can think of a better choice.
(PICK 5a) - Gibson (WR) is another pick that fit well with the overall plan. I wanted to wait and add to the offense when prudent, which pretty much meant waiting till the middle rounds. So this was a well timed pick. I would have picked a RB, too, if there had been a value there at this point, but need at WR has been elevated somewhat lately because of Marshall's problems so this was almost perfect.
No one stands out as a temping alternative. Picking Taylor (NT) was given slight consideration but not much.
(PICK 5b) - Brinkley (ILB) is a slight stretch but nothing dramatic, and their BB is probably innaccurate regarding him. I bypassed another ILB, Phillips, and he could be substituted instead -- it was a personal decision.
Brinkely fits an unfilled need, and does so at a good point. He could provide depth and grow into the position.
It could easily be argued the Taylor (NT) is appropriate here, since he's less of a stretch. I decided that fiiling an unmet need was more important than adding depth which held less possibility for the future -- a team building rationale, as in you don't want to add and then replace those additions down the road.
(PICK 6) - Burnett (CB) is another good choice for several reasons. I wanted to add at CB itself (a non-hybrid like Jenkins), and he's also a KR, so the niche/special teams logic of later rounds was an important consideration.
(PICK 7a) - Pedescleaux (DE34) fulfills one of my main objectives -- to focus on adding at DE.
It could easily be argued that I should have taken Roy Miller (NT), and I would have no problem substittuting Miller instead. My thinking is that the NT project won't be ended unless we bring in a high quality NT prospect down the road, so we might as well work on DE now. There's a lot to like about this prospect, though.
(PICK 7b) - Underwood (WR) is another prospect (aren't you tired of me saying that?) that fits with the overall plan. I wanted to add to WR more than once, if possible, and he's a good value (IMO) as a underrated prospect whose problems resulted in drop in value. Lots of speed, good size, there's no reason he could fills some niches and provide value as a backup.
General Comments -- I'll be brief here; I wanted to add at RB if possible, so this was a deficit (the trade off was more WR and DEs, so it's still good). I wanted to add at OLB, but the opportunities weren't very good.
Overall -- it's a good draft, if I do say so myself. I haven't done much overriding of the BPA values, so it's mostly just taking who's there.
I did have philosophy of trying to fill as many different areas as I could -- within reason, since some areas needed more than one pick. There was more attention paid to the round that picks came from, since higher picks are expected to contribute sooner, and later picks obey a niche logic or have developmental needs that could be aided if given the time and coaching.
LET ME POST AND REVIEW & EDIT FOR ERRORS, I'LL ADD COMMENT IN LATER POSTS, TOO
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Pretty good man...
I can get on board with your picks.
I like Brinkley and Pedescleaux….I had a some info on him a while ago.
Jenkins would be good, particularly learning from Dawkins, and with Barrett, they could be our future.
I think Brace is going to be better than Raji IMO and he could be our future NT.
Thanks as normal and RECD!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
Nicely done bro.
I agree with much of this. The Jenkins/Brace 1-2 was something I was thinking about again this morning with word that Jenkins was likely to be available. Makes a lot of sense to draft a position that is costly to fill in FA at 12. Thanks for the work here. Rec’d.
Brace will turn out to be better than Raji, IMO
And especially in the 2nd round. I really hope we can get Brace in the 2nd
Growing older is not for sissies. Jack Palance
Oops
Didn’t read Boydy’s comment closely enough before I posted mine.
I think Brace is going to be better than Raji IMO and he could be our future NT.
Great minds think alike!
Growing older is not for sissies. Jack Palance
Yeah Bradley....if I can think the same as a lawyer and man as smart as you I am honored mate!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
He seems to be moving up most mocks
My fear is that he won’t be there at 48. If not, I think Michigan’s DT can be had in the 3rd.
I actually passed on Taylor
He came up as a choice for both the 5a (#140) and 5b (149), Gibson (WR) and Brinkley (ILB).
I wanted to turn to other positions, especially offense at some point, so Gibson was justified. Brinkley was also quite justified. I hadn’t addressed ILB yet and I had drafted a NT, so Brinkley won out, and for various reasons.
I could have addressed NT once again at 7a (#225) by drafting Roy Miller (NT) instead of Pedescleaux (DE). This is a tough choice, but I went into this MOCK under the belief that DE might be a more important position to focus on — oddly.
It’s not actually that odd if you consider that there are two positions versus one. And both the DEs are at a lesser draft position, so there’s still more value a NT. I merely felt that developing some DE34s was important. There’s logical argument that goes ‘you don’t bring in talent if you have to cut it later’ — call it the formal problem of “building a temporary structure.” I didn’t think that Taylor was going to be part of the solution at NT down the road, so I essentially saved space for that latter solution.
Well-done!
Excellent post. I am so ready to focus on the positives again-such as the draft. Extremely well-done and articulately stated-logical draft. Recommended!
I like it
I think there are so many needs that our draft is a bit hard to predict. I can easily talk my self out of any draft choice or player with the right argument. The other night I was talking myself out of Champ Bailey starting but quickly focused myself. We have some Glaring Depth Needs as well as starter needs. The only thing I can say semi confidently is that our first 4 round picks better be ready for starting time cause they may well get it. The rest of the draft needs to prepare to start but be ready to back up!
http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif
"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
Two WR?
Hmmm – not so sure. I would go with a TE is possible, instead of the 2nd WR. With chad J, Gaffney, Royal Marshall, Scheffler (Yep. Him, used similarly to last year) Stokely it looks like we are in good shape. A good TE will be a need in a couple of years, and I’d go with it now.
I really like your Magee pick. Ron Brace will be great if we can get there – more 3-4 teams this year, and NTs are scarce. Good choices overall, ’Ski
Hillis in '09
sometimes it just works out that way
I was certainly looking, but it wasn’t in the cards.
Jared Cook could have been the pick in the 2nd but Brace was the clear winner based on positional need/impact.
There was some consideration in the 3rd of Beckum ( -6) and Ingram ( -11), but Levitre won on positional grounds and BPA. I didn’t think Beckum would fit with McDaniels’ philosophy.
There were no TEs in the vicinity in the 4th.
Anthony Hill, of South Carolina ( -4), for the 5b (#149) came under serious consideration, but he would have supplanted Brinkley (ILB) so there was no way to justify his pick.
Richard Quinn came under consideration in the 6th, and I was going to pass on him and override the choice and pick Gronkowski, but the prospect of getting a good KR and backup CB was too much to pass up. I had set out originally in hope of finding a DB who was a good KR, and finding that objective made this choice weigh too heavily towards Burnett. This was the closest I came to picking a TE.
Nothing in the vicinity in the 7th.
It was my expectation that there would be values at many points at TE, but somehow that didn’t work out. Picks can be influenced by needs, especially if it’s important, but TE was a position I hoped would fill itself but it never happened. That’s the crap shoot element. It’s not that they weren’t being considered along the way.
Re: WR. It’s just a good year for them, so there were many, many opportunities. I look at Tiquan Underwwood as a KR, too, so I don’t see anything wrong with the two that were picked, nor with elevating this position a little considering recent developments. I think not picking a RB is a better criticism.
A little more on WR v. TE
I’m not real pleased with the depth a WR. I don’t know what to make of Willis and Foster, and Jackson is largely an unknown commodity, too. It seems we need depth behind #1 and #2, although we’ve got three that fit the slot — Stokley, Royal and Gaffney.
I’m hardly an ‘X and O’ guy, especially when it comes to WR, but backups with size and speed seem to be a need. There’s a lot to like about Brandon Gibson. So I have no problem with him nor when he’s picked.
Tiquan Underwood has potential as a KR and gunner. He’s got terrific speed and has been a little undervalued, so the ‘niche’ logic for late picks and his potential to backup and provide missing speed make him an easy late pick.
The real draft may turn out different, of course, and there are some CFAs at TE that may help us if we lack the picks to select one initially. I was thinking that Kory Sperry of CSU had some great traits combined with some horrible one, ones that could be possibly remedied through coaching, and after time on the practice squad.
WRs
I think the McDaniels would really like to have at least one pure deep threat. Sure Marshall and royal can go deep, but their greatest asset is their ability to generate YAC. That lends them to working underneath and over the middle. A deep threat receiver would force the safeties back and open up the middle and underneath routes more similar to the way Moss opens up space for Welker in NE.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 26, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions
how this MOCK played out
I’ve thought about it (which is good. since it’s good to rethink), and I can’t see any real good reason why our draft couldn’t unfold in a similar fashion.
I’ve reexamined the choices, and there was an argument for taking Appleby (ILB), who I bypassed.
I have to say that I might still take Underwood, although it’s a tough choice. My feeling (which I commented on) was that we should be looking to add on offense in the late going, and I could easily see McDaniels adding one more weapon at this point.
Tiquan Underwood’s speed was a big factor in his selection. Gibson’s speed hasn’t lived up to earlier billing but he’s still a good choice. See scouting. Underwood ran a 4.41 – 40yd. at the combine, and has showed even more at his pro day. Gibson’s no slouch but he’s not the fast wideout I was hoping to find in this draft.
Analysis
Positives: Legitimate NFL size. Good height and has the frame to handle NFL punishment. Has the quickness, bulk and strength to fight through the jam at the line of scrimmage. At least adequate straight-line speed to challenge defenders deep. Can track the ball over either shoulder. Can sink his hips, stick his foot in the ground and explode out his breaks, creating separation against even the best of cornerbacks. Soft hands and can snatch the ball out of the air. Good body control to contort his body and make the tough catch in traffic. Courageous over the middle. Effective red-zone target. Cognizant downfield blocker. Showed good toughness last year fighting through knee and heal injuries. Three-year kick returner.
Negatives: Possesses good, not great deep speed. Demonstrates good overall athleticism, but doesn’t consistently produce yards after the catch. Struggled with drops during Senior Bowl practices. Marginal elusiveness in the open field. Experienced kick returner, but not necessarily a candidate to do so at the next level. Plagued by a knee and heal injuries in 2007.
Here’s Underwood’s scouting report:
Analysis
Positives: Good height for the position. Has enough straight-line speed to make plays deep down the seam. Uses his long arms to block defensive backs in space for a short time. Reliable hands and able to make a move after the catch. Good vision as a runner. Has experience returning kickoffs, should get a chance there. Special teams gunner who works hard to keep punts out of the end zone.
Negatives: Very wiry build. Long strider who lacks suddenness. Does not get off the line very quickly and lacks the strength to get off a jam outside. Likely best as a number three or four receiver out of the slot. Better when facing the quarterback than trying to track the ball over his shoulder. Hustles to get to his target in the run game, but can gets destroyed due to his lack of upper body strength. Seems reluctant to go over the middle, looks to get hit before the ball gets there although he usually makes the catch.
And, just to see what we’d be missing, here’s Appleby. I see strong possibilities for Appleby in our system. His secondary position is listed as DE/OLB so he’d be a good fit on the inside or outside. Makes you wish we had one more 7th round pick, doesn’t it?
CFAs
We could make good use of more 6 and 7 round picks. Especially at this point in the rebuilding process.
I can even find CFAs that merit our attention. After all, the term “late rounder” was a term that originally referred to tenth, twelfth rounders, etc., these are actually what we used to call “mid-rounders.”
A good example, one I noticed when comparing Scott Wright’s Big Board with DrafTek’s, is Darryl Richard, who Wright had in his top 150 but falls at #267 on DrafTek’s Big Board. Some other examples; Reshard Langford (SS) #253, Blake Schlueter (OC) #269, Dominique Edison (WR) #256, Worrell Williams, (ILB) #258, Trimane Goddard (SS) #260, Pierre Walters, (OLB34) #263, Marquez Branson (FB) #273, Davon Drew (TE) #274, Khalif Mitchell (DT34) #280, David Richmond (WR) #283, Jon Cooper (OC) #285, Anthony Felder (ILB) #287, etc., etc., ………..
And this is a culled list, there are others that merit inclusion. So let hunt down a few more.
Manual Johnson (WR) #299, Terrance Knighton (DT34) #302, Zach Potter (DE34) #305, Kory Sperry (TE) #307, Jamarca Sanford (SS) #308, Cullen Harper (QB) #316, Demonte Bolden (DT34) #317, Bradley Fletcher (CB) #318, Gartrell Johnson (RB) #322, Ellis Lankster (CB) #327.
I guarantee that I can find contribution from this group. A few will even become starters. A player like Potter would be perfect for the 3-4, so we better hope we can sign him if he goes CFA.
Lots of Effort & Very Nice Post
What was your rationale for Jenkins over Tyson Jackson?
Jackson was in the mix
He’s a great fit but his selection always comes off as a negative choice.
I actually like the idea of fixing DE if we can, but I’m not sure if he’s liked because he’s the best of a weak DE34 group or if it’s because there’s something positive behind his selection.
Jenkins may seem like an odd choice but there isn’t much long-term depth in the D-backfield.
Also, Jackson doesn’t provide much pass rush. I’d like to see the DE position fixed with someone who offers more pass rushing ability.
In the end, it’s not so much about Jackson himself as the aging secondary. CBs (or FSs) with size and coverage ability are hard to find. DE34s are, too, but Jackson struck me as a little less unique in his ability.
not really sure its gonna fall that way...
after watching a little you tube and nfl network it sounds like jenkins is a great fit for a cover 2 type defense ( big physical, slower). and after reading some of the detroit websites (for cutler talk), detroit seems to be pretty thrilled about taking brace in the second round. there looking for replacements for cory redding and shaun cody. id love it if denver picked him up first. ive had doubts about raji. espn says that hes a dominant 4-3 dt,not a 3-4 nt for the fact he doesnt handle double teams very well.
by s.west.railroader on Mar 25, 2009 9:52 PM MDT reply actions
Thats why I like Brace...
He handled most of the double teams, and handlede them well, at BC.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
Pretty Weak!!
First two picks ok,but the rest are trash.I would be upset with this draft.
Natural Wonder
I'd be thrilled...
..if 1- 2 worked out that way. I think its possible, too. I’d be surprised if Denver went DE in the first round, because Thomas, Fields, Powell and Peterson all deserve a look at DE. Denver also has a glut of potential OLB’s on the roster (Williams, Dumervile, Moss, Woodyard, Ried, Bailey), so another tweener conversion project isn’t a luxury that they can afford at this point. That leaves a short list of worthy players, and outside maybe Brian Cushing and James Lauranaitis, Jenkins offers best combination of potential impact and versitility. You can probably eliminate Cushing because despite his measurables, he has consistently underachieved on the field, which is a big red flag in the Patriot Way of thinking. He doesn’t have production matching ability. Though I tend to disagree, Lauranaitis is viewed as a reach here….so that leaves Jenkins as the best overall player available left on the board.
I doubt Brace will be available at two, though. I’m also not going to be shocked if they go offense at 2. Maybe Brian Robiski or similar #2 WR that would free Royal up to become the best slot guy in the League. Its clear that McD isn’t quite as impressed with the Broncos offense as we are.
by PredominantlyOrange on Mar 26, 2009 9:47 AM MDT reply actions
Sorry, i hate this....
Drafting a corner in the first would be the biggest mistake ever. We have good players in our secondary we definitely need to get a corner at some time, but the secondary doesnt make the dline better, the d line makes everyone else’s job easier. WE dont even have a true Nose, Raji wont be there so I say take either Cushing/Brown or Maybin at OLB or Tyson Jackson. Then Brace in the second, if we get Jackson in the first then we get an OLB in the third and vice versa
Consider
our starting secondary consists of:
Weapon X: will turn 37 midway throught the season
Renaldo Hill: 31 when season begins
Champ Bailey: 33 when season begins
Andre Goodman: 31 when season begins
Right now i think our starting nickelback will be Josh Bell, with Jack Williams competing closely. Our best backup safety is Josh Barrett with lots of promise there, and then we have Vernon Fox and Herana-Daze jones rounding out the depth.
If we picked up Jenkins we can reasonably expect him to take the starting nickleback role, while backing up FS and both Corner spots. With the age of the starters, we should probably plan on having secure depth at the position, and Jenkins is utterly suited to that role. He could also win a starting corner spot, or even the starting FS spot, which is more than any of the other incumbents can say. The pick on its face is solid. The only scenario that would make it questionable is passing on a raji or Brown, and I would actually argue that Jenkins has more value at #12 than either of them, from a monetary guarantee POV.
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 26, 2009 5:24 PM MDT up reply actions
not arguing against you but...
why would any team draft a corner in the first round only to turn around and play him at safety when there are a could better safeties to draft that are better than him. and can get at a cheaper price further down the line.
since denver plays a man to man scheme in the secondary which requires fast corners(4.3-4.4 in the 40), why would denver draft a corner that is suited for a tampa 2 defense which requires slower, more physical corners. if my memory serves me right, jenkins only ran a 4.55 or so in the combine. not sure what he did on his pro day or if he has even done his proday yet.
if jenkins is starting and he is lined up against a reciever that runs a 4.3 in the 40, hes gonna get burned every time.
now i also dont know if our new defense is gonna play man to man or a tampa 2, but i would have to assume that we are going to be playing what we have been for years.
watching the nfl network, they are saying that burnett is now the third best corner in the draft. excellent speed at his pro day. fluent hips and good hands, is more suited for man to man. but doesnt expect him to be on the board past the second round. why not take him in the second, hopefully third round and draft one of the top defensive lineman/linebackers in the first round of the draft?
respect your work but just wondering.
by s.west.railroader on Mar 26, 2009 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions
I apologize up front
but I will be ignoring most of the combine data. Man corners don’t need to run a 4.3 40, they need to demonstrate fluid hips, excellent foot speed and balance and above average burst, so that they can mirror and close on receivers. A fast receiver running into man coverage is rarely compensated for by requiring a superfast corner. They are compensated by good defensive reads and smart safety play.
Jenkins slow time at the combine is hurting him pretty bad in a lot of analysts eyes, but the tape doesn’t lie: he is the best man coverage corner in this draft. His proday came in a little better at 4.46, but insiders are reporting he has a hip injury. I don’t really know about any of that, but based on his gametape, i think it will sort itself out int he long run.
I have to try and remember that Jenkins is being put out there now as a safety prospect before he is considered a CB prospect these days. I really don’t understand that idea, except that he filled in at FS some at Ohio St., and early in the scouting cycle an NFL Gm said he thought that Jenkins could be a starting safety in the NFL. That seems different from drafting him as a safety, i think it just speaks to his versatility and smarts. For my money, he is a corner first, safety second, but that is just my opinion. More and more of the big names are getting on board with the FS argument, so that makes it easy to doubt my analysis, since I’m not a pro, but Jenkins is just one guy I feel very confident about as a corner.
Here is an interesting thought that might help explain why I am ok with taking Jenkins at #12. Your last paragraph you indicate that Burnett would be a more sound alternative in the 2nd than Jenkins in the first. I would disagree on the grounds that I think our 2nd round pick is too high to take a CB! Confused yet?
I don’t look at the 1st round pick as necesarily having any predefined nature for the Broncos, such as “Dline” or “Front seven.” I see it only as our best chance to grab one of the top 12 picks on our draft board. A lot of the sample mocks that Colinski has been running with the draftek simulator lead me to believe that jenkins is going to be consistently available as a top talent at #12, while other guys from our top twelve will be gone. So taking Jenkins isn’t about addressing “need” (we don’t really have that luxury, except on offense) its about getting a great player. Please don’t confuse this with Best Player Available, as it is slightly different.
I’m sort of addressing your points randomly, forgive me. The Tampa-2 label for Jenkins is a recent phenomenon, as analysts try to make sense of his 40 time. Again, i’m not terribly worried about his 40 time. He would be a good zone corner, but he should be targeted for a man scheme. Just my opinion.
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 26, 2009 6:47 PM MDT up reply actions
wow...
never thought of it that way.
now do you think that jenkins is a top 12 pick? or are you going by what the analyst is thinking?
and maybe my problem with jenkins is that im kinda looking back at different drafts and comparing him to other cbs that were taken and were in the first round they were taken. for instance rogers-cromartie, or revis, or even cromartie in san diiego.
by s.west.railroader on Mar 26, 2009 7:13 PM MDT up reply actions
I actually
consider Jenkins a top five player in this draft. There is a fine line between my top three or four prospects, and then next 14 or so on my board though. I’d like to think my top guys all have the “it” factor.
What is interesting is that if you look back at early rankings (say, December, January) Malcolm was at least top ten on every viable board. What happened? He started dropping before the combine, so it wasn’t entirely a bad showing in timed drills. My guess is the old saw for the draft rankings “in order for someone to move up, someone else must move down”. Guys like Jenkins, Laurinaitis, maualuga, Moreno, Curry have been at the tops of boards all year, but they have to maintain their momentum all the way into the draft to hold onto their position before a general audience. It isn’t good for them to do anything poorly, especially the overhyped combine and proday tests, but it also isn’t good for them to sustain either. This time of year analysts are looking for prospects who stand out from the norm. This is an unfortunate circumstance for players whose norm is already above the norm. They are damned f they do and damned if they don’t. A select group will rise above this (Curry is a good example) but it is relatively out of their hands. Curry can’t help what other OLBs times are. he did excellent for himself, and should be the top rated player in the draft because of it, but I have a hard time demeriting other solid players because they couldn’t impress as all around athletes. Meanwhile, interesting and improving players move up the board to take the places of guys who have simply become boring. I wish there was room for both of them at the top, I really do. Great players who have sustained their production deserve acknowledgement, but so do some of these young guys with the drive to improve and impress. I don’t want either one to gain at the expense of the other, but that is how it has to work out.
I would caution about comparing anything to last years draft, because it wasa really special draft, with lots of good players going to good situations and getting opportunities. It was unique and i’m just glad that Denver was one of the teams that made good on that situation.
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 26, 2009 8:05 PM MDT up reply actions
Styg and S.west...
Outstanding conversation gentlemen.
You guys both have great takes and I enjoyed reading it.
Awesome!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
thank you boydy
styg – one thing i know i havent been considering is the difference between speeds at the combine and actual game speed. for instance jerry rice. i think he ran a 4.69. but when actually playing, looking back at some of the games, there were DBs he just smoked.
now i just hope jenkins has it. i guess im just gonna have to do a little more research on him.
and your definately right about last years draft. out of all the bad draft picks denver has picked through out the year, who wouldve thought that every player would still be pn the roster and finding jems like hillis and royal. clady got snubbed from the pro bowl. what other LT only aloud .5 sacks against him.
now if the broncos actually do pick up jenkins, hopefully he can prove me wrong ljust as clady did.
by s.west.railroader on Mar 26, 2009 9:30 PM MDT up reply actions
another good example of combine numbers is Brandon Marshall
http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif
"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
by Jon Tollerud on Mar 26, 2009 11:32 PM MDT up reply actions
speed
The funny thing about Jenkins’ recent fall is that nobody has reported him exhibiting any speed deficiency problems during a game. It makes me wonder if he is the opposite of a “workout warrior.”
Just to get an idea of how badly he did, I’ll post the entire results for CBs at the Combine.
Butler, Darius-——————————- 4.46
Johnson, Bruce-————————- 4.46
Webb, Lardarius ————————— 4.46
Trent, Morgan-—————————- 4.47
Underwood, Brandon —————— 4.48
Mouton, Ryan-—————————— 4.48
Powers, Jerraud ————————— 4.49
Davis, Vontae-—————————- 4.49
Washington, Donald-————— 4.49
Fletcher, Bradley ————————— 4.50
Hughes, Brandon-——————— 4.50
Quin, Glover ———————————— 4.50
Munnerlyn, Captain-—————— 4.51
Smith, Alphonso-———————— 4.51
Owens, Christopher-—————- 4.51
Smith, Sean-——————————— 4.51
Barnes, Kevin-—————————— 4.52
Carey, Don-———————————— 4.54
Jenkins, Malcolm-———————- 4.54——————————
Moore, D.J.-———————————— 4.56
Burnett, Joe-———————————- 4.57
Smith, DeAngelo-———————— 4.57
Johnson, Domonique-————- 4.58
Wright, DeAndre-————————- 4.59
Harris, Cary-———————————- 4.61
Palmer, Ryan-——————————- 4.62
Francies, Coye-—————————- 4.63
Allen, Asher-———————————- 4.64
Harris, Victor-——————————— 4.68
Pegues, Derek-—————————- 4.69
Akins, Kevin-———————————- 4.85
He wasn’t ‘that’ fast, but I don’t know if he was all ‘that’ slow, either, and he did improve at his pro day. I’d say the jury is far from ‘being in,’ but he doesn’t really fit the profile of an “elite” CB now — just a very good one.
I don’t think it’s a big issue. The MOCKS I’ve seen having him going to New Orleans at #14, and most people have him ranked higher and falling to N.O. at that position. They also want him as a CB, whereas we could also use him at Safety, and either would be fine. Houston will certainly take at #15 and use him as Safety if he happens to slip though.
There’s enough scouting on Jenkins that indicates he’s an excellent player, but the fall from an elite CB to a very good one probably takes him out of the top ten and pushes him down into the high teens — a substantial fall, certainly, but not the cataclysm it’s made out to be.
I apologize for putting it in terms of projected draft position, but it’s a good way of gaining perspective. Teams in the top 10 are afraid of making a huge financial commitment to a DB who’s not an elite CB, but it’s not as big an issue once you get into the ‘teens’ and the salary structure flattens a little. A DB usually isn’t considered worth a high pick, nor the salary, if he’s not an elite talent, and he’s just not a unique talent if he might be a little slow.
Jenkins still looks like a very talented DB, however, and look at how he did in his drills (under his name, you’ll have to open each drill at the site) and how they describe him in the Combine scouting report.
Overview
There isn’t much NFL scouts don’t like about Jenkins. Athletic, intelligent and consistent, Jenkins surprised many when he elected to return for his senior season despite a first-round grade from the NFL Advisory Committee in 2008. The three-time first-team All-Big Ten pick and two-time All-American improved his overall consistency, winning the Thorpe Award as the nation’s elite defensive back as a senior. A shutdown cornerback who intercepted 11 passes over the past three years, Jenkins was effective at cutting the field in half and sometimes moved him to free safety to generate big plays. A first-round caliber prospect at safety or cornerback, Jenkins’ consistent play and versatility should land him a spot in the draft’s Top 10.
High School
Started for three years and helped lead his team to three consecutive state championships … Played both wide receiver and defensive back, but won all-state honors at the latter his senior year … Also excelled at track, winning the state title in the 400-meter dash as a junior … Placed third in the 200-meters as a junior and third in the hurdles as a senior at the state meet
Analysis
Positives: Lockdown corner. … Very physical at the line, has a strong punch to knock receivers off their route. … Attacks ballcarriers behind the line, making secure tackles. … Also willing to assist in tackles downfield or inside. … Effective playing off receivers as he can flip open his hips and accelerate, close quickly on the ball in front of him or change direction to mirror receivers. … Stays with even the fastest receivers down the sideline. … Plays free safety on occasion and has all of the tools to succeed there in the NFL. … Excellent hands for the interception, and he has the vertical to high-point the ball and strength to fight for it. … Can make plays with the ball in his hands.
Negatives: Creates havoc on the blitz but doesn’t always finish. … Will take chances to make a play on the ball. … Could improve his tackling in the open field — will occasionally drop his head instead of watching what he hits. … Inconsistent taking on and getting off receiver blocks, and will hesitate to get to ballcarriers coming into his area. … Must prove he has the mental discipline needed to handle getting constantly challenged as a rookie after rarely being thrown at in college.
My point in this MOCK was to show (QUITE SPECIFICALLY) that Jenkins could be and maybe should be our top choice. I actually composed the entire MOCK for that purpose. I had a few secondary goals, like finding DEs, too.
good logic
thanks Colinski
http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif
"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
by Jon Tollerud on Mar 27, 2009 12:20 AM MDT up reply actions
thanks Jon
Much of what I discuss is actually decision theory. It’s about how perceptions can be changed through cognitive biases, and how to avoid those traps in thinking. Jenkins is a classic “falling value,” someone who’s dropped and tends to keep dropping past the point where he should have if the decisions were actually rationale.
Basically, there’s a ‘hot and cold’ style of thinking that often goes on, and we’ve seen it boost prospects (often beyond where they should go) and drop them past where they should go, and in many cases it’s the same ones, in a ‘boom/bust’ cycle.
Good points S West...
I am a big believer in Jenkins.
He is a good player, and I think his lack of speed is over rated, and his game speed is under rated. he is a smart player, and with more coaching, and being exposed to Champ and Goodman will learn how to run good “corner” routes and take angles that mitigate speed of WR’s. The great ones know how to do this.
Agree on Clady…but that shows you that the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest and not a evaluation of the best players.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
I am okay with reaching for DL and ILBs
Normally I would want value, but our D was so blah last year that we are justified to reach for positions of need. I am not sure where these players would be relative to our turns in the draft, but we have to have them. I would also like to get a young TE due to the wear and tear on Graham and Putzier and Scheff’s injury history. I would think that the 4th round would be the time to start looking for a TE. I could also see value in taking a look at a QB in the 6th or 7th, never hurts to bring in a new guy to grow with the new system.
Anyway Ski, thanks for all the research and sharing the info on the picks and the decision making process. The draft process provides such a great example of game theory and shows the real direction that franchises want to go.
I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.
Some names in the fourth and later to get familiar with:
Cornelius Ingram, Florida
Cameron Morrah, California
Anthony Hill, NC State
Bear Pasco, Freson State
Jared Bronson, Central Washington
And I think two names already mentioned in this thread, who could be CFA pickups: Davon Drew, ECU and Kory Sperry, Colorado St. High probability of an aggressive CFA campaign to get Sperry, or at least, I hope so. I really think there is a value to Denver dominating their backyard scouting. that could be a huge ace…
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 27, 2009 2:02 AM MDT up reply actions
caught me checking back
Here’s the #30 version of Drafek’s simulation (released March 27). I just was looking at and saw the Morrah choice — coincidentally.
1) Maualuga (ILB)
2) Jarron Gilbert (DE34)
3) Rashad Jennings (RB)
4) Austin Collie (WR)
5a) Emanuel Cook (SS)
5b) Brandon Underwood (FS)
6) Cameron Morrah (TE)
7a) Nader Abdallah (DT34)
7b) Deon Butler (WR-S)
Lots of offense here. I’m not sure about the choices.
re: "names to get familar with"
It may be a little late, but — there’s a lot of TEs out there that we should be interested in. I’ve noticed that before, and that’s part of why I took the criticism of my taking 2 WRs and no TEs more seriously than may seem warranted.
Bronson is clearly a find. He comes in at #267 on DT’s BB, but his ability to rank in a number of Combine drills speaks to his upside as a player. There’s a number of athletes in the late going that easily could win a spot on our roster. Here’s one more, from the late, late going.
He ranks at #509. That’s doing some deep digging! He’s a CB, just in case you don’t look.
Deep digging indeed
Did he play in the Chinese league? ;)
I haven’t watched any clark (i wouldn’t even know where to begin), but I actually had his name in my memory banks as an Idaho senior. I’m from Idaho so I tend to keep track of all the Bengals, Broncs and Vandals that are seniors, and see if they end up on NFL teams. Hope springs eternal.
regarding Bronson, I noticed that they mentioned only one scout made it to the proday at Central Washington, but I thought I had heard that there were three there. The only one I can find confirmation on however is Aaron hineline, who works for Seattle. I would consider the Northwest to be backyard scouting for Denver as well. I am hoping Denver had a scout down there. I think it is a lucky draw for Bronson, because the state of washington as a whole isn’t getting a lot of attention this year, so whatever scout is in that area has the time to dig in and look at him.
It was funny to watch him, because he was so much bigger and more explosive than everyone around him at central washington, but then in the Shrine game he just looked small. Not necessarily out of place, but the difference was striking. He strikes me as a weapon type of TE, he knows how to uncover and present himself. i think he would be a reliable target, and I’m betting his upper body strength is being WAY underrated. He was recovering from shoulder surgery at the combine, and then a month later he got 21 reps. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was really a 25-27 rep guy, which would have looked great in this class. I think McD wants to see his TEs be able to sit down at the line, and that would be questionable for him. i think he grades out as being just below second tier with whole body strength (the upper body strength should help him get separation though). I also think his quickness is mostly in comparison to those around him. it wasn’t directly evident at the shrine game, and his 40time in conjunction with his shuttle time lead me to believe he is more fast than quick.
I’m rambling. thanks for the conversation!
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 27, 2009 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Big Sky
Denver media coverage pays some attention to the Big Sky because one of the member institutions is the U. of Northern Colorado (UNC, in Greeley), but I discovered him through NFL.network’s coverage of Pro day workouts. SEE HERE
Pro Days
DB Clark, five others work out at Idaho St. Pro Day
Eight NFL teams sent representatives to Idaho State University to watch six players work out at the school’s pro day.
DB D.J. Clark, who did not participate at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, turned in the most impressive performance.
Clark, who measured in at 6-foot-1 1/8 and 200 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.55 and 4.52 seconds indoors on AstroTurf. Clark had a 36-inch vertical and a 10-7 broad jump, and did the 20-yard shuttle drill in 4.01 seconds and the 3-cone drill in 6.91 seconds. Clark put up 14 repetitions of 225 pounds in the bench press.
Clark was a second-team All-Big Sky Conference performer, finishing his college career tied for third on the school’s career interceptions list with 15. He led the team in picks in all four of his seasons with the team, including five interceptions in 2008.
He may be a little faster than timed, so he’s a perfect kind of CFA project because of his measurables, and because he has produced at the college level. It’s worth noting that the success of athletes from programs such as Boise State (e.g. Ryan Clady), has shown the value of scouting in that region. The programs in the northern Rockies and plains (see all the North and South Dakota players on our roster) are growing and have been producing a surprising amount of talent lately.
Re: Bronson
WalterFootball has him as a 6th rounder, and that’s not hard to believe considering the Combine’s (SEE COPYRIGHT: Copyright NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.) scouting on him.
Analysis
Positives: Legitimate NFL build. Good initial quickness off the snap and can elude the jam to gain a clean release. Rare combination of size and straight-line speed. Smooth acceleration. Can sink his hips and generate some burst out of his breaks to separate from the defender. Reliable hands. Looks the pass in to make the secure catch. Good body control to contort in space to make the tough reception. Good hand placement and flashes the upper body strength to provide an initial pop as a run blocker.
Negatives: Level of competition is an obvious concern. Ducks his head when blocking at the second level, resulting in missed blocks. Lacks the lower leg drive to gain movement at the point of attack as a blocker. Shoulder injury that resulted in his missing nearly five games in 2008 requires a Combine check.
The funny thing is we’re seeing more polished receivers at TE lately who need to work on their blocking skills. I think it was the opposite in the past.
Question
you mention here that you were looking at a couple of WRs. I believe in your earlier mock you mentioned you are also prioritizing rush-end (or maybe it was just end) because of the depth there…
Ignoring names and the when and where of the pick, is there a particular positional harvest that you are expecting? Is there an ideal positional harvest? Maybe involving trades down?
Also, very quickly, my take on the WRs and DE/OLBs: I would love to see a scenario where at least the first pick in each case was a (x) variety as opposed to a (-x) or (0). I think we should step out of any consideration on type in an effort to accomplish that. i don’t know how much better than (0) a (4) would be according to draft tek, but it seems to be substantially better. My thinking is that you might look at the first opportunity to get a steal at the position because of its depth, and reduce the number of targets if you can’t.
For the record I tried to go in and do it myself, but after trying multiple browsers I realized I’m to dumb to figure it out right now. I’ll keep trying.
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 27, 2009 1:06 PM MDT reply actions
X and Os
You’ve lost me, actually.
What I can say regarding DEs, etc., is that I would strongly consider drafting an impact pass rusher despite the crowding with Moss, Dumervil, etc., at that position. I still hold to the description of our needs as follows;
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
OFFENSE
OL — moderate (Guard, or interior OL with premium on versatility, backup quality/future starter) —note: the OCs look good for this, and the Centers fit the ZB requirement better
RB — moderate (not as strong now), One-cut premium, but feature back (w/ long speed) desired. Round: probably wait.
WR — moderate. WR w/speed desirable, but skilled route runner also desirable for fit in ‘Amoeba.’
TE — moderate (partly because of availability).
DEFENSE
NT – high. Late depth a possibility contingent on earlier success (i.e., if filled in #1 or #2 we can look look elsewhere)
DE – high. Premium on 3-4 fits (as always). Can fill again in late rounds; developmental projects appropriate then.
ILB – high.
OLB — moderate. Premium on 3-4 fits who can pass rush. Availability may provide success in early rounds. Niche pass rushers may be available in later rounds.
CB — moderate. Depth and future starter quality are criteria.
S – high, Both SS and FS if possible. Filling one reduces need for other.
KR – moderate. Prefer a DB if possible.
General Criteria — this is all the Patriot Way stuff, i.e., versatile, smart, etc. Prefer physical players, unlike the speed preference in the past.
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
My philosophy of late is to attempt to fill as many needs as possible rather than returning to a position. I do see enough reason to add more than one player at some positions such as high need areas on defense, but it depends on where earlier picks were made. The justification for Pedescleaux after Magee was Magee’s 4th round status and the fact that there are 2 DEs. WR was a little different — 2 were picked partly because of Special Teams use (niche logic) and the fact that they were picked late (number rather than quality).
I find it easier to make the pick and then explain why than come up with a description of what my critieria is exactly. Picks are often highly contingent of what was picked previously, and some though to what availability is like guides picks (foresight).
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