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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

Interesting stats on Cutler

The Denver Post ran an article called Getting to know the 'real' Jay Cutler.  There was a poster over there who goes by vamjl, or Mike, who made some very insightful posts that I thought I'd share with you guys.  I can't vouch for the accuracy of his stats; however, if they are true then they provide some tremendous optimism for Jay's potential playing for a complete Broncos squad. 

And Mike, if you read this, thanks for the great research and I hope you don't mind me passing it on.

As a QB, we won't know the "real" Jay Cutler until the Broncos start playing "real" defense.

Jay Cutler is 14-7 (.667) when the Broncos give up less than 30 points. He is 3-13 (.188) when they give up 30 or more points, including 3-6 (.333) this year. That is 16 of 37 games Cutler has played in, where the Broncos gave up 30 or more.

What's my point? No QB can win consistently when they have to score 30+ points a game.

Even though I believe John Elway is the greatest QB ever, he was 7-41 (.146) when the Broncos gave up 30 or more.

Jake Plummer was 40-18 as a Broncos starter, but NEVER won a game when they gave up 30 or more points (0-10). He was 4-37 (.098) for his career when his team gave up 30+.

Brian Griese was a surprising 4-7 (.363) when the Broncos gave up 30 or more points.

Here are the career records, followed by their records in the Jay Cutler era, of some of the top NFL QBs when their teams give up 30+ points:

Tom Brady 5-8 (.384), 1-1 from 2006 - 2008;
Peyton Manning 9-25 (.265), 2-3 from 2006 - 2008;
Kurt Warner 6-22 (.214), 1-8 from 2006 - 2008;
Ben Roethlisberger 2-10 (.167), 1-7 from 2006 - 2008;
Brett Favre 8-42 (.160), 2-9 from 2006 - 2008;
Donovan McNabb 3-16 (.158), 0-8 from 2006 - 2008;
Phyllis Rivers 1-8 (.111), benchwarmer in 2004 & 2005;
Eli Manning 1-16 (.059), 1-10 from 2006 - 2008;
Matt Cassel 0-4;

None of these QBs ever had a single season when their team gave up 30 or more 9 times, as the Broncos did this year. The Colts in 2001 went 6-10, giving up 30+ 7 times. Peyton was 0-7 in those games.

The AZ Cardinals under Jake Plummer had 3 seasons where they gave up 30+ points 7 times. Jake's record those years was: 1998 1-6, 2000 1-6 and 2002 0-7. No other QB on my list had a season where thier team gave up 30+ points more than 5 times.

I obviously didn't look at all QBs through the history of the NFL. I don't have access to Stats, Inc like the DP sportswriters do and I had to do this research myself.

 

As a follow up post he added:

Thanks , Ryan and John D. Here's one last update to my list:

Tom Brady 5-8 (.384);
Jim Kelly 10-20 (.333);
Peyton Manning 9-25 (.265);
Joe Montana 6-17 (.261);
Kurt Warner 6-22 (.214);
Jay Cutler 3-13 (.188);
Steve Young 4-19 (.174);
Ben Roethlisberger 2-10 (.167);
Brett Favre 8-42 (.160);
Terry Bradshaw 4-20-1 (.160);
Donovan McNabb 3-16 (.158);
John Elway 7-41 (.146);
Dan Marino 7-52 (.119);
Phyllis Rivers 1-8 (.111);
Jake Plummer 4-37 (.098), 0-10 w/the Broncos;
Troy Aikman 2-20 (.091);
Ron Jaworski 1-14 (.067);
Eli Manning 1-16 (.059);
Jeff George 1-40 (.024); (for those of you comparing him to Jay Cutler - I'll take Cutler)
Matt Cassel 0-4;
and the winner, the man who somehow managed to complete 22 of 25 passes in the Superbowl, but who never won a game when the other team scored 30+ points,
Phil Simms 0-20 (.000).

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 57 comments  |  17 recs  | 

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wow

great stuff. thanks to mike (if he reads, props, and if he doesn’t the accolades go to..) and PNB. puts things into perspective. what’s the expression? the best offense is a good defense?

by Royal With Cheese on Mar 9, 2009 1:02 PM MDT reply actions  

Does this work like the lost and found?

If nobody claims it after two weeks does it become mine? ;-)

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

That's right

also I have a Phyllis (cry me a) Rivers jersey no one seems to want

by Royal With Cheese on Mar 9, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'll take it.

I’m joining a paintball league this summer and I could use a target.

I picked the wrong weekend to quit sniffing glue...

by papigrande on Mar 9, 2009 2:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

i must warn you...

wearing it may allow you to win the division, but you’ll never win a championship!

by Royal With Cheese on Mar 9, 2009 3:27 PM MDT up reply actions  

zing...

nice one. Take that phyliss!

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

I could come up with a lot of games for one of those, actually.

Like, the guy in the jersey is Phyllis and everyone has to shoot him. See how long you can last, phyllis! I was just thinking more along the lines of tying it to a tree, though. lol

Also, ZING!

I picked the wrong weekend to quit sniffing glue...

by papigrande on Mar 9, 2009 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks!

This is very interesting, thanks for bringing it to our attention.

by studbucket on Mar 9, 2009 1:33 PM MDT reply actions  

Awesome work PNB and kudos to Mike!

Shows you all what we have…..come on D!
Rec’d.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Mar 9, 2009 1:40 PM MDT reply actions  

Nice post

You have to look at the rest of the team when analyzing Cutler’s record, no doubt. BTW, did you know that he had more lost passing yards due to penalty (290). Add that to one of the highest number of drops (Marshallalone had 12) in the leauge, and you begin to see why a lot of reasons why Cutler tends to press at times.

Hillis in '09

by Doc Bear on Mar 9, 2009 1:51 PM MDT reply actions  

hmmmm?

I knew about the drops but not the penalty yards…interesting.

I did a post a couple months ago that also highlighted a significant correlation between the team’s poor running performances and his INTs. Also, I’d noted that the majority of his pics had come on down and long situations.

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 2:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

How come your old name came up?

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Mar 9, 2009 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

I had to go into Mermaid's cage to find that post and he escaped for a moment.

Shot him with a tranq and order has been restored…no need to worry. ;-)

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 3:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good job!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Mar 9, 2009 3:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Cuttler

Very interesting data. With a somewhat improved “D”, we have a chance. Great post.

by J1S on Mar 9, 2009 1:53 PM MDT reply actions  

Fantastic post PNB

Thank you for bringing that to our attention and props to Mike for the original story.

I’d give you 2 recs if I could!

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Mar 9, 2009 1:55 PM MDT reply actions  

+1 I'll give him one

Real Power, comes with the realization that One cannot change the Moment;
only ones perception of it: Atitude! JQM

by UB3 on Mar 9, 2009 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great stuff!

Let’s hope McDaniels and Nolan can put together a defense this season.

The best defense is a good offense!

by Mike Clark on Mar 9, 2009 1:59 PM MDT reply actions  

Phil Simms....hahahah

I hate that guy for the 1986 season. :P

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Mar 9, 2009 2:04 PM MDT reply actions  

well...at least he's a Broncos fan now. ;-)

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

he does

phil simms and jim nantz do the broncos games on the east coast, at least on the feed i get from the satellite dish at the sports bar. phil has been pretty cool with cutler, i wonder if that changes now.

taste my blintzkrieg!
2009-year of the defense.

by davecheffy on Mar 10, 2009 9:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

i hate phil simms

Every time I hear his commentary I want to set my self on fire. Simms and Madden are fantastic at putting the Broncos down and for stating the obvious. Here is a guy who when he puts his contacts in he sees better. . .what a douchenozzle

by D-fence on Mar 9, 2009 11:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

It's also noteworthy...

…that Simms defense only gave up 30+ pts 20 times in his 14 career. Cutler is already at 16…ouch.

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

ahem...that's intended to read "...20 times in his 14 year career."

We really need an edit option.

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

Fantastic Post.

Rec’d

"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."

Vince Lombardi

by Denver_Native on Mar 9, 2009 2:19 PM MDT reply actions  

he's been discovered!!!!

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Mar 9, 2009 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

lol...did you listen to the shows?

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

Just a little bit

They tend to get upset with me when I blare Phish at work, and my home computer is having internet issues.

by TIMMAH420 on Mar 9, 2009 2:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

They're pretty good.

Definitely some rust to work off. Each show gets better. The 3rd night they killed it.

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Just got home

What a weekend. Weather was wonderful. No real traffic issues and the music was fantastic (almost want to say worth the wait). First night was my favorite but that may have been the adrenaline – and the Fluff + Divided opening. Jams were very tight all weekend, even the 23 min DWD didn’t wander off into space Can’t complain about song selection in any way, though I would have liked to hear the story of your namesake’s death. Only real downer was the three hours the cops were in the hotel room across the hall on Saturday afternoon.

by MattR on Mar 9, 2009 4:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

man...that is freakin' awesome.

I’m really jeaolous. My buddy went to try and get a ticket to Friday night but couldn’t get a ticket. He said he saw them going for over a grand each. I think Friday’s set was the best…but Sunday had the tightest jams. Nice to see them dig deep into the vault on some of those selections. I think they’re saving the story of my death for an epic four night stand at Red Rocks.

I assume you already know, however, you can download all three shows for free a LivePhish.com.

To love the Broncos is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love. But then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer; to suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love. To be happy, then, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be unhappy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness.

by PosterNutbag on Mar 9, 2009 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Heh. Listening to Sunday night now. Thx

Downloaded the first two shows to my mp3 player for the car ride home. Of course right after I hit post to my second reply I realized I should have mentioned livephish.com, but figured you knew it.

I heard a lot of talk about $700 tix but I don’t think I saw or heard of an actual deal being made. My buddy and I were discussing how much it would take to get us to part with our tix for one of the three nights. We never came up with a final number because we knew it was higher than anyone would ever offer. As a sign of how tough it was, there were a couple of girls offering “cash and girl on girl action” for tickets near the front of the venue on Sunday. They were average to good looking, nothing special but not your steroetypical dirty f-in hippie by any means (using that for description, not being judgemental) and they were getting nothing more than bemused glances from guys walking by. Who knows if the girls were serious or not but the funny thing is that people were talking about them in the crowd by the gates but it was completely in the sense of “wow, amazing how hard it is to find a ticket” and not “dude, should we trade our tickets”.

by MattR on Mar 9, 2009 6:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

oh, and great stats to come home to

good find and thanks to Mike for posting at DP

by MattR on Mar 9, 2009 4:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

Excellent find, PNB!

rec’d =)

Davus.X
Est. 1967
Bleeding Orange and Blue for 42 years

by Davus.X on Mar 9, 2009 2:36 PM MDT reply actions  

nice post

The post was definately insightful, and hopefully Cutler will thrive when the defense improves. The only problem I have with him is how risky he is with some throws. I cringe every time he throws it across the field through the linebackers. He reminds me of Brett Farve a little; he’s got a cannon but he’s just too risky

"The fish who keeps on swimming is the first to chill down stream."-311

by PhillyBroncoFan on Mar 9, 2009 3:12 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks and about time someone pointed out the elephant in the room

PNB, totally agree, Jay doesn’t play defense so blamming him for losing when the defense collapses is pretty uninformed view of the anti Cutler brethren. Good to see the comparisons, nice work indeed.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"McDaniels must go!" - Broncoman

by Broncoman on Mar 9, 2009 3:28 PM MDT reply actions  

Beavis

Did Watchmen not live up to expectations?

Thanks to Mike Shanahan, a great coach who will be dearly missed.

Hillis for starter next year. He wears special thigh pads so his solid brass balls don't give him repeated thigh contusions.

by 53guys on Mar 9, 2009 4:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

I didn't expect it to

I liked it, but very hard to do the book proper in amovie and make it appealing to everyone, I may go back to the watcman later.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"McDaniels must go!" - Broncoman

by Broncoman on Mar 9, 2009 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great post.

However, it would be interesting to see how many of the offense’s turnovers turned into points. There is no doubt the defense was horrendous last year, but they can be put in horrible situations when the offense turns the ball over.

by adamriggs on Mar 9, 2009 3:33 PM MDT reply actions  

Yep, there is no beginning or end to it, its definitely a circle of disaster....

Defense cant stop anyone. Offense feels pressured to score. Cutler squeezes things as he knwos we cant have any 3 and outs as it puts the D back on the field. We get a turnover. D comes on who cant stop anyone, especially when the opposition has good field position. D gives up points. Cutler and Co then have to score to keep things even because……
DEFENSE CANT STOP ANYONE!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Mar 9, 2009 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

I have a suspicion that our PPG numbers would drop maybe 1-2 points per game when accounting for turnovers...

our defense was flat horrible man…worst we have seen from a Bronco team since the 60’s. That is saying something.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Mar 9, 2009 4:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yep....I still physically cringe just thinking about it...particularly that Larry Johnson run....

That was the beginning of the end!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Mar 9, 2009 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

lol

I was worried about the chinks when Sproles was burning us on every other play in Week 2..

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Mar 9, 2009 6:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for your perspective

I just wondered how much should really be attributed to the defense. Oh, and I agree that the defense was responsible for 95%+ of the points scored.

by adamriggs on Mar 9, 2009 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

It is such a mental game....

Cutler and the O (plus Bates) clearly did not trust the defense. I would not have either.
The thing I worry about the most is this:
Cutler is naturally a risk taker and gun slinger. I LOVE that about the kid. But what I wanted to see out of him was the ability to dumb it down and manage a game. Thats a hard thing to do when your defense cant hold anyone. The D played well against Tampa, and Cutler played great. He controlled the game, threw to his check downs etc. SO, im my opinion, the one thing where you wanted to see jay make strides (decision making) was never going to happen as he had to take MORE risks to give the team a chance to win because our D sucked: talentr wise, scheme wise , adjustment wise and coaching wise.
I am worried that Jay is now in that risk taking mentality. He played that way in Vandy, and was forced to play that way in Denver.
Mc D will want to use Jays upside and talents, but he also needs to know that Jay can manage a game and be efficient.
Maybe thats why they listened to trade offers….maybe McD is worried once a gun slinger always a gunslinger and that it will be a very hard habit to break. And you have to wonder whether Jay will want to cahnge a game he has had for over 7 years.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Mar 9, 2009 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

i think mcd

wanted cassel for the same reason he got the new longsnapper. confidence.

its like planting seeds of trust in the locker room. if he wants a whole team to buy in, he needs some salesmen. who better then the qb?

"I want this team to be tough, smart and prepared to play well under pressure...Everybody here in this organization is going to be held accountable to do their job — their piece of the puzzle to make this team a competitor for a championship every season." J-Mac

by Jay Fin Anderson on Mar 9, 2009 10:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

McD never "wanted" Cassel...

He was offered him as part of a three-way trade. He may have considered it for a time, but he rejected it. There’s no evidence that McD ever sought out this trade, PERIOD!

Let’s stop feeding the MSM misinformation machine.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Mar 9, 2009 11:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

thank you, mr. mccaffrey

for speaking the truth. let’s move on, shall we?

taste my blintzkrieg!
2009-year of the defense.

by davecheffy on Mar 10, 2009 9:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

What a stat.

I hope the Broncos are on their way…to stopping some people.

All Ready!

by precisiontint on Mar 9, 2009 6:01 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks for the write up.

I would imagine that if you averaged the points off turnovers for every QB on the list when their D gave up +30, nothing would stand out. I mean things would look pretty even. The fact is that when a D gives up +30 points on any given day their team doesn’t stand much of a chance to win. The only chance is that you have a great QB that never quits. It’s great to compare Cutler to the likes of Brady, Manning, Montana, etc… IMO that’s where his name will end up when he hangs up the pads. It’s not fair, for the lack of a better word, to compare Cutler to his record when Denver’s D has been consistantly HORRIBLE for Cutler’s tenure. All Cutler needs is a barely moderate D and he’ll win 2 out of 3. With a moderate to good D, well that is just going to be fun to watch and for those years, hopefully many years, it will be great to be a Bronco fan and a Cutler fan. Have faith in McD and X-man, our D is already better than last year and they haven’t even stepped on a practice field yet. BRONCOS 09’!

by chopperpilot on Mar 9, 2009 7:04 PM MDT reply actions  

Look on the bright side

You didn’t also have to look at the stats for our special teams and how other QBs would do if constantly handed our field position as well as the score. I’m frankly impressed that he’s done as well as he has.

Hillis in '09

by Doc Bear on Mar 9, 2009 9:48 PM MDT reply actions  

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