Call Me A Fool--My 2009 Denver Draft Board

and the motivation concerns, and the weight problems and the fact that he never played a NT role? He took on just as many Double teams as Raji did, but they were both used ina penetrating one gap style, where Raji’s explosiveness is stellar. I like brace as a prospect, but I have a hard time rating him above high character/work ethic guys who have talent and no injury concerns.

I included your piece called “Freak of nature”. I think you have identified him accurately but I think he is a long ways from the “it” factor of the very top of the line prospects. i turned up a few articles with off the field concerns for him, I think some questionable study habits as well. He has elite lower body strength, and he could certainly dig his heels in int he technique department and improve quite quickly. I like him, and If the Brocnos took him at #48, i think that would be nice, but it just depends on who else was available and what they did with the #1 pick….

I misspelled that more times than I misspelled Maualuga. The sloughton misspelling got copy pasted all throughout my notes, and I never know where it is going to crop up next!

I don’t really know which ones of these guys would be considered sleepers, but I do know that there are several prospects where I simply can’t find anything out about them online. When that happens, I worry that they didn’t declare or something, but so far they just seem to be relatively unnoticed…

there isn’t a set rule, but the groups are there so that you can choose from that group with confidence that whoever you DON’t Take in that group will be gone by the time the next group rolls around, and that any players NOT in that group may be available later.

So for the 6star group, i would take any of them in the order listed, and moreno would have me stoked. Curry would make me wet myself and Jenkins would please the heck out of me. But we don’t HAVE to take any of them. I just don’t think you can go wrong with them, they are the best players in the draft (plus a few OTs I don’t have listed). Lets leave them out of this exercise.

IN the first round I would be dissapointed if Denver did not take someone in that first group that includes Reyrey and Raji. Not all will be there, but ANY of them would be acceptable. That pick now affects all the following picks, so whatever it is has to be kept in mind. Lets say we take Cushing. To me that is solid, but the rest of the picks need to be solid too, or it becomes a bad pick.

That holds true throughout the draft, where I assume the first column of players ahs been taken by then, and my first group to snag a player out of is the topmost group in each column. In the later rounds there are a handful of guys that might be considered “steals” in that I think they are rate a lot higher than they are expected to go, those would be those lone names at the head of the columns. Assuming some earlier pick didn’t fill out a particular need, i think those guys would be the best picks to take.

To address the list of players you mention, i don’t know that ideal would be the best term, but it would be a solid group of guys who all address needs and fit what the Broncos should be trying to do. Whether or not each particular guy was the best choice at each spot depends on where others at his position have gone, and how many more at his position are left, especially higher valued guys.

For example, lets look at getting a ILB in the draft, something I would call a 7 need on a scale of 10. ReyRey is the first obvious choice, and an excellent value, even at #12 (all of this is IMO of course). But before I take him I look and see that I have at least two other very solid choices (McKillop and Appleby) who could be available well past their “expiration date” if you will (that is, I have them as high quality players, but the general consensus is that they will go later). I also see that most of the other ILBs will be good enough for me (1 star groupings) but not the best choices in each of their rounds, so there is some risk to waiting. I could go either way, but lets say that I decide that Appleby and McKillop are good enough to wait on, and that ILB isn’t so great of a need that the pressure is on to get anything more than a solid prospect, so I next look to see what other values for my #12 are available.

Let’s say that Cushing was available. I would rate OLB at maybe 5/10, not a huge need, but with enough questions that I can’t ignore it. I look forward and note that although the depth is significant, all the best ones will be gone before I pick again. In fact, i am probably picking in the middle of a run on them, judging by recent mocks. The next OLB I could be looking at is Larry English, who is a talent, but not ideally suited to the 3-4 and thus rated at 4 stars. After that I am almost guaranteed to find nothing more than a role-player or developmental guy. But again, the positional need doesn’t seem to warrant pumping #12 value into it, so in this exercise, I think i am going to keep looking.

(at this point I should insert my cases for both Moreno or Jenkins, both likely to be here, and obviously steals to me, but I said we would leave them out of the discussion)

If I forgo OLB and ILB both, (and assume that guys like Raji and orakpo are gone) than I am left with taking a highly rated offensive player (not a high need) taking a highly rated guy like Chung at #12 (reaching) or looking in the four star group (less value). Those three ideas need to be weighed against eachother, and there is no simple, easy answer. If you were working off of my board, i think you reach into the 4 star group and grab Tyson Jackson, a solid move. he is depth on the dline, a 10/10 need area, and a worhtwhile investment, but just not worth the ultimate bottomline for the pick. but if there is no one else there, its great. Chung might not be the best choice merely because the opportunity exists to get him anyway with a lesser value pick, and safety is only a 6 or 7/10 pick. Offense would be worthe looking at, except that need is very low on offense, lower than safety.

As you can see, it is only one pick, but so many choices are made at the same time regarding the rest of the draft when you make it. I think the board helps to conceptualize who will be legitimate options going forward, helping you make wiser decisions.

they are listed in the order they are expected to go off the board, according to draftscout.

but his RG is a good prospect. :)

I hope we get our QB situation straightened out sooner than later, because if I have to look at QBs next year, I won’t have time for anything else. it takesa while to look at them (but is is the most fun, probably), so I have been glad the last year or two that I didn’t need to spend much time there. This year i spent NO time there, which is looking like a mistake…

Styg…like you know i did a this-is-how-the-patriots pay thingie a while back…omg…seems like forever ago now…and i sorta talked myself into a dont get a running back…maybe because of you-know-who as the QB. Do you think THE trade should change my figuring?

Count me among those who think that 9 out of 10 OTs in the NFL will give him fits. If there was an “opponent adjusted” stat for his end rushes it would rank him pretty low.

He originally wasn’t even on my board, even though I had done the fulll package on him, but he looks to be taking a real pro’s approach to the combine and proday workouts, which tells me that he is getting his head as straight as he can. I defintiely like that, and so now he is on my board. I won’t bash him, but I won’t get behind him either.

it definitely could, but I’m betting the Broncos will still look at RB the same as before, that is, roleplayers that execute on their turn and can produce on only limited reps. I should note that I don’t think that rules out Moreno. ;)

I think Colinski is working on some need rankings or something of equivalent value, so it will be interesting to see where he might rank that particular position.

They reworked LDT’s contract, so they have two plus RBs making a ton of money (Sproles got franchised). Why would they speand their top pick on another RB?!

but the work that went into this occurred throughout the year, long before I there was any trouble brewing at the position. QBs take a lot of time to analyze, so I was more than happy to ignore them (the last two years).

The best laid plans….

styg is distracted, next pick coming I am sure. We are all distracted. Time to move on though…next pick is coming.

and we’ll be right back on track. I didn’t want Cutler news to bump the draft picks too quickly (though the possibility is still there if a trade gets hot) so I just let it rest yesterday.

I metnioned above that I did all my analysis long before the Cutler Brouhaha cropped up (and probably 90% of the analysis was done before Shanny was even fired), so I really didn’t see a need to rate QBs or OTs.

However, in watching their teammates, two QBs jumped out at me, and they both should be 5th round max, or as low as seventh, or even CFAs: Curtis Painter, Purdue and Cullen Harper, Clemson. I started lookingat them in 2007, but at the time they looked like stars int he making, so I ruled them out as backup choices back then. When I was watching those teams this time around, I noticed that they really seemed to be struggling, but had some significant flashes. I’m not sure what their whole story is, but they both have strong arms, and decent to above acerage accuracy, but both seemed to have terribly off years in 2008. i think they are worth a deeper look. A quick glance saw smome technical issues, like a slow release for Painter, but the big thing is accuracy, and I believe it was Harper at teh Senior Bowl, who had the best accuracy in the practices out of everyone, but the scouts didn’t feel he had enough “sing” on the ball…

Anyways, two interesting guys, and their are a whole lot more. Broncoman did a post on a guy out of stanford I think, not sure, who looked pretty good, too.

McDaniels obviously (IMHO) thinks he can get good production out of journeymen QB’s like Orton & Simms. I would like to see how they do for a season before we pull the trigger on a 1st round QB.

So we have no need for Sanchez I think. So it would be a good deal for TB and NYJ.

But I’m not sure he gets past the 49’ers.

We can trade back with our #12 and still have the #18. It seems to me that most of the players we want who are available at #12 will still be available at #18.