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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin's Game-Winner Was Incredible, Worth Remembering

What a misleading stat

We have all heard the stat thrown around about Cutler being 13-1 when the Broncos allow 21 or fewer points. This stat has been used by the media and by fans alike to bolster the argument of why Cutler is such a great QB and to simultaneously show how awful the Broncos defense has been during JC's tenure here in Denver. This stat never did sit well with me.

I agree Cutler's overall record of 17-20 as a starter is more of an indication of the Bronco's performance over the last 37 games rather than JC's performance over that time span, and I also agree that our defense has been bad since 2006, which is when Cutler made his debut. However, this stat seems to me to be reaching for something to prove Cutler is an elite QB in the league, which I don't agree with. At least he has not reached that level yet, in my mind. I felt this stat was misleading in how it was being thrown around in regards to only 1 player. 

The one thing that this stat made me think of as soon as I heard it was that I'm sure most, if not all, NFL QB's have pretty good Win/Loss records when their teams allow 21 points or less. Well here is that data listed in order of win percentage:

Career Win/Loss record when team holds opponents to 21 points or less

1) Matt Schaub - Texans - 9W 0L  1.00

2) Matt Ryan - Falcons - 8W 0L  1.00

3) Tom Brady - Pats - 70W 5L .933

4) Jay Cutler - Bears - 13W 1L  .928

5) Peyton Manning - Colts - 85W 7L .923

6) Tony Romo - Cowboys - 19W 2L  .904

7) Phillip Rivers - Chargers - 28W 3L  .903

8) Matt Cassel - Chiefs - 9W 1L  .900

9) Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers - 46W 6L  .884

10) Vince Young - Titans - 15W 2L  .882

11) Matt Leinart - Cardinals - 7W 1L  .875

12) Carson Palmer - Bengals - 25W 4L  .862

13) Eli Manning - Giants - 30W 5L  .857

14) Marc Bulger - Rams - 26W 5L  .838

15) Drew Brees - Saints - 44W 9L  .830

16) Matt Hasselbeck - Seahawks - 47W 10L  .824

17) Joe Flacco - Ravens - 9W 2L  .818

18) Jake Delhomme - Panthers - 39W 12L  .764

19) David Garrard - Jaguars - 24W 8L  .750

20) Tavaras Jackson - Vikings - 9W 3L  .750

21) Chad Pennington - Dolphins - 37W 13L  .740

22) Kyle Orton - Broncos - 17W 6L  .739

23) Donovan McNabb - Eagles - 67W 24L  .736

24) Alex Smith - 49ers - 10W 4L  .714

25) Brian Griese - Bucs - 37W 16L  .698

26) Derek Anderson - Browns - 9W 5L  .642

27) Trent Edwards - Bills - 9W 5L  .642

28) Aaron Rodgers - Packers - 5W 3L  .625

29) Jason Campbell - Redskins - 14W 9L  .608

30) JaMarcus Russell - Raiders - 4W 3L  .571

As I suspected, every QB has a winning record and almost all QB's have very impressive records under this criteria. While Cutler is among the top of the list, there are a lot of QB's whose winning percentages are right up there (8 above .900, 17 above .800).

While it is true that Cutler is 13-1 when his team holds the opposition under 21, it is also true that Vince Young is 15-2, Matt Leinart is 7-1, and Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan are undefeated at 9-0 and 8-0 respectively. All this stat proves is that NFL QB's win a lot of games when their teams hold opponents to under 21 points. 

 

***Notes: Minimum amount of pass attempts per game was 5. I found a couple of games that would have counted one way or the other but the QB's only attempted 1 or 2 passes, so I set the minimum at 5. I did not include Collins, Warner, or Culpepper because I'm lazy and they have played forever (particularly the first 2). I did not include the Jets because Clemens didn't have enough data, and I did not include the Lions because of my previously mentioned laziness (honestly I just ran out of steam).***

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 67 comments  |  28 recs  | 

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Another Note

These stats were for when teams hold the opposition to 21 points or less. Not less than 21 points.

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 11, 2009 3:43 AM MDT reply actions  

wow i never realized this, good post,

but i dont understand this last part.

These stats were for when teams hold the opposition to 21 points or less. Not less than 21 points

so ur saying basically that these stats included teams that scored 21 points right? or did i read that wrong?

by uclabruin34 on Apr 11, 2009 4:30 AM MDT up reply actions  

Correct

If an opponent scored exactly 21 points it was included. If they scored 22 or more, it was excluded.

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 11, 2009 8:16 AM MDT up reply actions  

I Never Understood Why This Was Used

I’d like to know what it is when the opponent is in that 22-27 range. That’s the money range, right around 24. Then it’s not a shootout, and it’s not a defensive struggle.

List of Prerequisites to be Denver Broncos QB:

1.Don’t EVER compare yourself to Elway, and we’ll make sure we don’t either. 10 years is enough time to heal.

2.Don’t make our ownership or management have to call YOU time after time.

3.Don’t piss off Mr. B, he signs your checks.

4. Try your best, we’ll support you if you leave 100% out on the field.

5.Neckbeards are REQUIRED as of 4.2.2009

--Calijoefornia

by wtnelson on Apr 12, 2009 12:23 AM MDT up reply actions  

great post c_s

I love a good stat, but there are so many you can read what you want into and interpret to suit your point of view.
I must admit to rolling my eyes every time I heard this particular stat repeated during McJaygate. A good QB wins more often when his defence plays well? Well, you don’t say! Who’d have thought a QB under less pressure would make fewer mistakes.

and the sing along songs will be our scriptures - we gotta stay positive!

by Orange & Blue Badger on Apr 11, 2009 5:00 AM MDT reply actions  

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

______
Mile High Mania

by Mile High Mania on Apr 11, 2009 5:30 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

+1

I was going to say this quote if no one else did.

by Royal With Cheese on Apr 13, 2009 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions  

Shhh...

What are you doing with actual research?!?!?! You’ll never make the MSM unless you parrot the company line in order to foment contraversy!!!

"The mystic chords of fandom, stretching from every trade and signing to every active account and guest all over this broadband, will yet swell the chorus of union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature". ~ Abraham Lincoln-ish

"The tree of victory must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of quarterbacks and coaches". ~ Thomas Jefferson-ish

by ejruiz on Apr 11, 2009 6:26 AM MDT reply actions  

Those be fighting words, mate!

us parrots in the MSM do research! You think we like listening to Mike & Mike in the morning? Tell me, where else are we going to get our information?

Beware the wrath of a patient adversary.

John C. Calhoun --

by bcfunk on Apr 11, 2009 7:14 AM MDT up reply actions   3 recs

I've got to give 2 rec's

One to c_style for taking the initiative to examine a blithe statement and see where it leads, and one to funky for that great parrot!

Hillis in '09

by Doc Bear on Apr 11, 2009 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions  

Ditto for me, but some of those QBs at the bottom must have had really feeble offenses

I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.

by Arctic Bronco on Apr 11, 2009 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions  

I often thought about the opposite

If Jay was 13-1 when opponents were held to 21 points or less, he must have been 4-19 when we really needed the offence to come up big.

by Jeeeeens on Apr 11, 2009 6:44 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

Excellent point

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 11, 2009 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions  

+1

"I'm not looking for the best players; I'm looking for the right ones." ~Coach Herb Brooks in "Miracle"

by Colorado_Kitten on Apr 11, 2009 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions  

Excellent question

there’s this myth that the offense was putting up all these points and the defense was letting games get away. while the defense has been lousy, under cutler, in games where the offense scored at least 21 points the Broncos were 15-3. Conversely, in games where the offense scored less than 21 points the Broncos were 2-16.

As TSG pointed out years ago (I guess it was only January but it feels like years ago) the Broncos were winning close and losing in blowouts. It was a team effort good and bad.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 11, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions  

0-5

Jay Cutler’s record in games that could have put us in the playoffs.

"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL

by broncosmontana on Apr 12, 2009 6:48 AM MDT up reply actions  

He's gonna have to get a team to the playoffs first

Not sayin’ he won’t, just sayin’…

"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL

by broncosmontana on Apr 12, 2009 6:50 AM MDT up reply actions  

oops, that reply was meant for lovewatchin below

"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL

by broncosmontana on Apr 12, 2009 6:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

Thank you!

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 11, 2009 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

Really nice job

That was a very interesting read…thanks for the research and hard work.

Slow is smooth and smooth is fast

by Steve O' on Apr 11, 2009 7:46 AM MDT reply actions  

Excellent post my friend and recommended!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Apr 11, 2009 8:16 AM MDT reply actions  

I love being the 5th RECD as well!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Apr 11, 2009 8:17 AM MDT reply actions  

Exactly what I suspected

I was too lazy to do the research, though. Glad you weren’t. Jay has a really good record when his team holds opponents several points under the league average? Who’da thunk it?

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Apr 11, 2009 8:24 AM MDT reply actions  

I wanted to do the same study

But like Spoc was too lazy. I figured it would be what you wrote with most QB’s having great records when their opponent scores 21 or less. Thanks for the verification!

We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin

by solace on Apr 11, 2009 8:39 AM MDT reply actions  

Nice Work!

I love it when the media throws out stats without any context. A stat is just number until you put it in context.

Keep Moving Forward.

by ColoradoOwl on Apr 11, 2009 9:11 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

Jay Cutler is 17 - 0 when his team scores more points than the opposition team!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Apr 11, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Of course I was being facetious...

But I love this post as it show that stats can be turned around anyway that you want to read them.
The fact is that anyone who is starting in the NFL at QB is pretty frickin good and will have good and bad days.
Jay is a good QB. Orton is a good QB, and they will be affected by supporting cast and other uncontrollable factors like weather etc.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Apr 11, 2009 10:04 AM MDT up reply actions  

hahaha lol

"according to the map, we've only gone 4 inches"

by MikeD55 on Apr 11, 2009 9:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

The media plays the same games as the government

Jay Cutler is 13-1 when scoring over 21 points, and the unemployment rate is at 8.5% when not including those who have given up looking for work or who those who are underemployed. yada yada

Or even better, like our national budget deficit is a paltry $400 billion. HA!

Ok, I am yapping about inconsequential crap. Great post man! rec’d fo sho.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Apr 11, 2009 10:02 AM MDT reply actions  

Great post

I like that you used the same criteria for each QB. Kind of shows how meaningless statistics can be used to manipulate the reader. Thanks for the great research.

by bchiper on Apr 11, 2009 10:06 AM MDT reply actions  

Great post, rec'd

and for what it’s worth, this statistic has always struck me like “If your defense keeps the opposing offense from scoring, you win”

it’s kinda an oxymoron in my opinion.

"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall

by Joe Medina on Apr 11, 2009 11:34 AM MDT reply actions  

Rec'd

Don’t forget that the vaunted 2008 Broncos defense was 7-0 when the offense scored 24 or more points.

Owning the Patriots since September 9, 1960

by Darin H on Apr 11, 2009 2:19 PM MDT reply actions  

May I qoute myself?
Every team has a 100% winning record when they outscore the opposition.

I’ve always thought the idea of a team having an excellent wining record when holding the opposition to 21 or less points was absurd, because, OF COURSE THAT’S TRUE! It’s like many other silly phrases. “The team with the better turnover margin usualy wins” (well, yeah), and “the team that controls the clock wins more often than not” (no kidding?)

I replied to a comment sometime last week about this very stat (the 21 and under defense). This led to me reply that the team that scores more wins every time, and it got a few laughs. Thanks for backing it up with the numbers.

Rec’d!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Apr 11, 2009 2:23 PM MDT reply actions  

Excellent post

I haven’t liked this stat since the first time I heard it, but like others I was too lazy to do all the research. Glad to see that the numbers show it is a pretty useless stat.

Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage

by TD4HOF on Apr 11, 2009 2:51 PM MDT reply actions  

Orton

I also notice that our man Orton was 17-6 (.736) in such games which, although 23rd on the list, is not too shabby considering the struggles of his offense as a whole.

by BroncoJeff on Apr 11, 2009 3:38 PM MDT reply actions  

Style of play

I also think that the style of play of individual teams contributes to some QB’s being lower on the list than others. The Bears with Orton had a good D so they were content to play conservatively on O and try to rely on their D kept them in many low scoring games. Many of Orton’s losses in this stat were games that the Bears lost with scores like 13-17 or 17-20.

This also contributes to many more games that fall into this criteria. Orton had a total of 23 such games even though out of his 4 years in the league he didn’t play at all in 2006 and played only 3 games in 2007. This is true for Roethlisberger as well. The Steelers play a similar style of football and he logged 52 such games in only 5 NFL seasons.

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 11, 2009 8:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

excellent post

Great way to show that you can use stats to prove any point you want to make

by Brian Shrout on Apr 11, 2009 5:14 PM MDT reply actions  

Upcoming 2009 Stat...........

Denver’s new dynamic defense has helped Kyle Orton to a 13-0 record when they hold teams to 21 points or less.

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Little, Wright, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Apr 11, 2009 6:56 PM MDT reply actions  

And just to cover other posibilities

Upcoming 2009 Stat……..

Denver’s new dynamic defense has helped Chris Simms to a 13-0 record when they hold teams to 21 points or less.

I think that says it all.

Have a great day everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Little, Wright, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Apr 11, 2009 7:01 PM MDT reply actions  

Excellent as always Mike Clark!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Apr 11, 2009 7:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

My old friend Mr. Obvious strikes again

Using a stat like “Cutler is 13-1 when the defense allows 21pts or less” is like John Madden saying “Well you see, when you score more points than the other team, you’re gonna win the game” Gee thank you Mr. Obvious, where would I be without you. Great Post by the way and good initiative to search for the truth.

by T.Dot_Bronco on Apr 11, 2009 11:13 PM MDT reply actions  

Kudos on this Post

Excellent job to keep the spin doctors in line. Thanks for doing the hard work in your research C-Style, we appreciate it!

About playing against Joe Namath "He's the best in the Business, he can do everything, but I've never seen a Quarterback yet that can throw on his back." - Dave Costa 1969

by Denver Diehard on Apr 12, 2009 12:39 AM MDT reply actions  

good job on the research

Just wondering what happens when you run the stats out and include:
Yards per year?
Touchdowns versus int"s
Pro-bowl selections (how valuable to the team?)
Stat after Stat

I realize Jay C isn’t the most popular football player in Denver but I am thinking that it may not be soon (perhaps next year or the year after) that everyone else in the NFL will be singing his praises. Maybe even Superbowl MVP. Maybe I’m wrong but how embarrassing if all the naysayers in Denver are wrong? What if he is the real deal? Isn’t it better to reserve judgment until after the fat lady sings? Wouldn’t it be better to just let him slip out of Denver now that he is gone and just direct the attention to who is in Denver and who will now have an impact on the team.

Just a thought

by lovewatchinthegame on Apr 12, 2009 1:23 AM MDT reply actions  

Good points...

Even if he is a NFL SB MVP I will always think we did the correct thing trading him.
He was going to be devisive to this team….regardless of talent.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Apr 12, 2009 5:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

He's gonna have to get a team to the playoffs first

Not sayin’ he won’t, just sayin’ he hasn’t.

It’s easy to love potential but we did not give away John Elway.

"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL

by broncosmontana on Apr 12, 2009 6:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

The only statistical category

that cutler was a leader in was total passing yards – he was second but he also had the second most passing attempts. BTW: there is a negative correlation between passing attempts and winning (teams that pass more usually lose).

In all the other statistical categories he was slightly above average of slightly below average. The two categories that directly correlate with winning and losing are yards per attempt (YPA) and interceptions. In terms of YPA he was #12. He threw the second most int but since he also threw the second most passes that’s a little misleading. I haven’t run the numbers myself but I seem to remember seeing his interception rate was 17th.

he certainly is an up and coming player, but he has a long way to go before he is an elite QB.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 12, 2009 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Interesting...

Thanks for explaining that, it makes sense that those stats would really tell the true story.

"according to the map, we've only gone 4 inches"

by MikeD55 on Apr 12, 2009 11:11 AM MDT up reply actions  

Right now

The Bears have a 21st-in-th-league defense who gives up 21.9 pts per game. They will need to upgrade it, and/or get some receivers (and another RB) before they take any SB bows. However – you’re right. There is a little ‘spin’ going on to help us deal with the loss of Cutler, and we’ll be well off to look at all the players on our team that can help us win right now, and who will after the draft.

Hillis in '09

by Doc Bear on Apr 12, 2009 1:50 AM MDT reply actions  

I've been having this argument with all kinds of Chiefs fans.

Another note- look at how many turnovers Jay had in the games where we gave up 22 or more versus when we didn’t. When we gave up a lot of points, it was often because he turned the ball over a lot and gave the other team’s offense a short field and easy points.

Oh, and great research too. Rec’d!

I seem to have lost my future self.

by papigrande on Apr 12, 2009 11:54 AM MDT reply actions  

To wit:

Week 2: 38 points allowed to SD in a Win. (0) turnover margin, 1 total turnovers, a shootout, Cutler 1 INT
Week 3: 32 points allowed to NO in a Win. (-1) turnover margin, 2 total turnovers, a shootout, Cutler 1 INT
Week 4: 33 points allowed to KC in a Loss. (-3) turnover margin, 4 total turnovers, a blowout, Cutler 2 INT
Week 6: 24 points allowed to JAX in a Loss. (-1) turnover margin, 3 total turnovers, physically dominated, Cutler 1 INT
Week 7: 41 points allowed to NE in a Loss. (-5) turnover margin, 5 total turnovers, a blowout, Cutler 2 INT
Week 9: 26 points allowed to MIA in a Loss. (-2) turnover margin, 3 total turnovers, a failure to execute, Cutler 3 INT
Week 10: 30 points allowed to CLE in a Win. (0) turnover margin, 1 total turnovers, a shootout, Cutler 1 INT
Week 12: 31 points allowed to OAK in a Loss. (-2) turnover margin, 2 total turnovers, a blowout, Cutler 1 INT
Week 15: 30 points allowed to CAR in a Loss. (-1) turnover margin, 2 total turnovers, physically dominated, Cutler 1 INT
Week 16: 30 points allowed to BUF in a Loss. (-2) turnover margin, 2 total turnovers, failure to execute, Cutler 1 INT
Week 17: 52 points allowed to SD in a Loss. (-2) turnover margin, 2 total turnovers, a blowout, Cutler 2 INT

Totals: 4-8 record (.500), (-19) turnover margin, 27 total turnovers (2.4 per game), 16 INTs (Cutler threw 60percent of the turnovers)

Compared to:

Week 1: 14 points allowed to OAK in a Win. (1) turnover margin, 0 total turnovers, a blowout, Cutler 0 INT
Week 5: 13 points allowed to TB in a Win. (0) turnover margin, 1 total turnovers, a close win, Cutler 0 INT
Week 11: 20 points allowed to ATL in a Win. (1) turnover margin, 0 total turnovers, a close win, Cutler 0 INT
Week 13: 17 points allowed to NYJ in a Win. (+1) turnover margin, 1 total turnovers, a close win, Cutler 1 INT
Week 14: 17 points allowed to KC in a Win. (-1) turnover margin, 1 total turnovers, a close win, Cutler 1 INT

Totals: 5-0 record (1.000), (+2) turnover margin, 3 total turnovers (.6 per game), 2 INTs (Cutler threw 66percent of the turnovers)

Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 12, 2009 1:06 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

To get an idea

of what Cutler could have done to help the team over the hump, just consider what happens if he reduces the turnovers by as little 30 percent. Overall you can reduce the turnover margin by 1 in each game. Close wins become comfortable wins, and a lot of those (-1) turnover games(losses) become (0) turnover games (wins…in theory) and the (-2) games become a slightly more manageable (-1) game.

The difference in the record if the QB is a game changer instead of a compiler? 10-6 most likely, but possibly as high as 12-4. Cutler could have made them better, but as it was, he was more likely to make them worse, in any given game….

Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 12, 2009 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

Excellent point

which clearly makes a case for a guy like McDaniels to come in and help him improve vs. Jeremy Bates who really seemed more friend and less mentor to Jay.

"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL

by broncosmontana on Apr 14, 2009 7:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

wouldn't it make sense that your qb would have most of your turnovers?

I don’t disagree that JC threw to many picks, but seeing as the qb handles the ball every play it would stand to reason that he would have the most opportunities and consequently the highest percentage to the team’s turnovers. Is his ~60% of turnovers number substanially different than other qbs?

by laser rocket arm on Apr 15, 2009 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions  

good point

60 percent in a vacuum tells us nothing. The point wasn’t really to say that Cutler was better or worse than someone else, just that he had a huge impact. But comparison is needed to see the impact. In general, the best QBs (in terms of winning games) are right around 50% of their teams turnovers, which makes sense.

What I looked at was the ratio of plays the Qb ran to the ratio of turnovers he had for the team. Generally the good QBs matched up: Rivers had ~55% of the teams turnovers on ~53% of the plays. Pennington had ~53% of the teams turnovers on ~51% of the plays. Cutler was slightly better than good here, at ~60% of the turnovers on ~61% of the plays. The best by far was Kurt Warner, who accounted for only ~48% of the teams turnovers, despite running ~64% of the teams plays. The worst by far was Brett Favre who accounted for ~73% of the teams turnovers while only running ~55% of the plays. There were some surprises as well: P.Manning was terrible with ~71% of the turnovers on ~60% of the plays, but it was a tale of two seasons for him. The early season saw him struggling from the staph infection, the second half saw him back to probowl shape. Also the other SB QB, Big Ben, had ~60% of the turnovers on ~50% of the plays. His was definitely a case of “right place, right time” which has sort of been the story of his career.

Here are some additional stats.

QB INT rates
Pennington ~1.4%
Cassel ~2.1%
Manning ~2.1%
Rivers ~2.1%
Warner ~2.3 %
Rodgers ~2.4%
Flacco ~2.7%
Brees ~2.7%
Cutler ~3.0%
Romo ~3.1%
Roethlisberger ~3.2%
Favre ~4.2%

Pts/Pass
Rivers .49
Romo .40
Brees .37
Rodgers .37
Warner .35
Manning .34
Favre .29
Pennington .28
Cassel .28
Cutler .28
Roethlisberger .25
Flacco .22

Sack percentage
Roethlisberger ~9%
Cassel ~8.3%
Flacco ~7.1%
Rodgers ~5.8%
Favre ~5.5%
Rivers ~5%
Pennington ~4.7%
Romo ~4.3%
Warner ~4.2%
Breese ~2.9%
Manning ~2.4%
Cutler ~1.7%

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 15, 2009 11:02 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Those facts......

are enough to drive a sane man mad. I equate my lack of hair on my head to the maddening play of “the player who was a gunslinger without leadership”.

by bchiper on Apr 13, 2009 11:44 AM MDT reply actions  

Very good and rec'd

It seems that this 13-1 record is one that my friends hold onto. Thanks for your time in this post, and filling out all the stats. Now I have the facts. Hopefully this will help the guys here in Pagosa feel a little better about our upcoming season. GO BRONCOS

Tough times don't last.......Only tough people!

by moorebroncos on Apr 13, 2009 1:21 PM MDT reply actions  

Thank you!

I’m in Durango. SW CO representing on MHR!

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 13, 2009 2:35 PM MDT reply actions  

SAWEET!

I’m glad to see i’m not the only SW CO guy here. I’m trying to get my friends to check out MHR, but they are choosing to listen to the MSM. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH! Do you have the same prob in Durango? Glad to know I have a fellow MHR comrad close by.:)
GO BRONCOS

Tough times don't last.......Only tough people!

by moorebroncos on Apr 13, 2009 3:20 PM MDT reply actions  

Yeah, same problem here too

My friends are always sending me links to freakin Denver Post articles on the Broncos. Each time I send them any news it is a link to this site but they just don’t seem to catch on. I think it’s more out of habit than anything, but they just don’t know what they are missing! I’m going to keep directing them to this site however, if I can just change 1 life for the better…LOL.

I’m glad to see I’m not the only one from our area on here as well!
GO BRONCOS!

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 13, 2009 3:41 PM MDT reply actions  

Wow

c_style, I’m sorry it’s taken me so long to read your post. However, you deserve all the kudos you’ve received so far, and then some. I have had the same feeling about such a stat – it’s pretty much worthless, and I commend you for such excellent research and a concise post. Beautifully done, rec’d with emphasis!

by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 14, 2009 9:37 AM MDT reply actions  

Thank you all for your praise

I’m happy that you all enjoyed the post and I’m glad to provide us all with the ammunition to counter any ridiculous argument that is based on or uses this stat in regards to “the player”.

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on Apr 14, 2009 11:36 AM MDT reply actions  

Who's dat????

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????

by boydy2669 on Apr 14, 2009 6:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great post c_style!

immediatly after I heard that stat, I looked up the opposite and posted it all over The Broncos Bloggs 2-17 when Offense scores 20 or less. then I looked up turnovers. Cutlers turnovers added up to 78 points given away, just something else to think about.

Tactics without Strategy is the noise you hear before Defeat!

by monodono on Apr 15, 2009 10:48 AM MDT reply actions  

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