What a misleading stat

We have all heard the stat thrown around about Cutler being 13-1 when the Broncos allow 21 or fewer points. This stat has been used by the media and by fans alike to bolster the argument of why Cutler is such a great QB and to simultaneously show how awful the Broncos defense has been during JC's tenure here in Denver. This stat never did sit well with me.

I agree Cutler's overall record of 17-20 as a starter is more of an indication of the Bronco's performance over the last 37 games rather than JC's performance over that time span, and I also agree that our defense has been bad since 2006, which is when Cutler made his debut. However, this stat seems to me to be reaching for something to prove Cutler is an elite QB in the league, which I don't agree with. At least he has not reached that level yet, in my mind. I felt this stat was misleading in how it was being thrown around in regards to only 1 player. 

The one thing that this stat made me think of as soon as I heard it was that I'm sure most, if not all, NFL QB's have pretty good Win/Loss records when their teams allow 21 points or less. Well here is that data listed in order of win percentage:

Career Win/Loss record when team holds opponents to 21 points or less

1) Matt Schaub - Texans - 9W 0L  1.00

2) Matt Ryan - Falcons - 8W 0L  1.00

3) Tom Brady - Pats - 70W 5L .933

4) Jay Cutler - Bears - 13W 1L  .928

5) Peyton Manning - Colts - 85W 7L .923

6) Tony Romo - Cowboys - 19W 2L  .904

7) Phillip Rivers - Chargers - 28W 3L  .903

8) Matt Cassel - Chiefs - 9W 1L  .900

9) Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers - 46W 6L  .884

10) Vince Young - Titans - 15W 2L  .882

11) Matt Leinart - Cardinals - 7W 1L  .875

12) Carson Palmer - Bengals - 25W 4L  .862

13) Eli Manning - Giants - 30W 5L  .857

14) Marc Bulger - Rams - 26W 5L  .838

15) Drew Brees - Saints - 44W 9L  .830

16) Matt Hasselbeck - Seahawks - 47W 10L  .824

17) Joe Flacco - Ravens - 9W 2L  .818

18) Jake Delhomme - Panthers - 39W 12L  .764

19) David Garrard - Jaguars - 24W 8L  .750

20) Tavaras Jackson - Vikings - 9W 3L  .750

21) Chad Pennington - Dolphins - 37W 13L  .740

22) Kyle Orton - Broncos - 17W 6L  .739

23) Donovan McNabb - Eagles - 67W 24L  .736

24) Alex Smith - 49ers - 10W 4L  .714

25) Brian Griese - Bucs - 37W 16L  .698

26) Derek Anderson - Browns - 9W 5L  .642

27) Trent Edwards - Bills - 9W 5L  .642

28) Aaron Rodgers - Packers - 5W 3L  .625

29) Jason Campbell - Redskins - 14W 9L  .608

30) JaMarcus Russell - Raiders - 4W 3L  .571

As I suspected, every QB has a winning record and almost all QB's have very impressive records under this criteria. While Cutler is among the top of the list, there are a lot of QB's whose winning percentages are right up there (8 above .900, 17 above .800).

While it is true that Cutler is 13-1 when his team holds the opposition under 21, it is also true that Vince Young is 15-2, Matt Leinart is 7-1, and Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan are undefeated at 9-0 and 8-0 respectively. All this stat proves is that NFL QB's win a lot of games when their teams hold opponents to under 21 points. 


***Notes: Minimum amount of pass attempts per game was 5. I found a couple of games that would have counted one way or the other but the QB's only attempted 1 or 2 passes, so I set the minimum at 5. I did not include Collins, Warner, or Culpepper because I'm lazy and they have played forever (particularly the first 2). I did not include the Jets because Clemens didn't have enough data, and I did not include the Lions because of my previously mentioned laziness (honestly I just ran out of steam).***

This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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